Can a guy already feel like a bust before losing his rookie eligibility?  With the help of A.J. Reed, I’m going to say yes.  Already post-hype prospect while still being a rookie?  Already past his prime at 23 years old?  A.J. Reed is accelerating expectations, which isn’t nearly as good as exhilarating expectations.  It’s actually much worse.  Like a barista who can’t make foam worth a damn, Reed was a first cup of coffee flop.  Could it have been nerves or did we overestimate his potential?  In 2015, A.J. Reed hit 34 HRs across High and Double-A with an average north of .335.  Then, last year in Triple-A, he hit 15 HRs and .291 in half a season.  He averaged about five homers per month with a solid average, which translates to 30 HRs and .270 in the majors, with all things being almost equal.  “With All Things Being Almost Equal” sounds like one of the dozen of books written by Dave Eggers that no one has read.  “Oh my God, I love Dave Eggers!”  “Have you read anything by him after his debut book?”  “God no.”  That is every conversation about Eggers since 2002.  Okay, off track!  Anyway, what can we expect from A.J. Reed for 2017 fantasy baseball?

I’d say there was some warning signs in Reed’s minor league numbers that people were either not worried about or willing to ignore.  He looks exceptionally prone to striking out vs. fastballs.  He needs to guess maybe a millisecond sooner than most to giddy up his swing.  In the minors last year, he had a strikeout percentage of 23%.  Put that through Google’s “Minors to MLB Translator” and out spits a 34%.  Can’t hit .240 with that.  Last year in 122 ABs, he hit .164.  Um, poo.  I’d argue — Or as Billy Idol would say, I’m just arguing with myself!  — that Reed just needs to familiarize himself with major league pitchers.  If he can wait for his pitch, get a better read on pitchers, face them a few times, he could do damage.  Watching video of Reed, he strikes me as a guy that could hit 30 HRs with ease.  He generates power and I’m an energy voter.  (I’m not, I don’t even know what that means.  Have you ever seen more commercials for something and still have no idea what the hell they are talking about?  Sometimes, I’ll turn on the lights and say to Cougs, “I’m an energy voter.”  Then, I’ll turn off the lights and say, “I’m not an energy voter.”  Okay, maybe you have to be there.)  Asking a 23-year-old to come in and face pitchers he’s never seen, and the best pitchers in the world — sorry, China! — and succeed isn’t going to be easy for someone like Reed, but he looks like he could get there.  Other good news is the Astros’ 1st base and DH spots long for some sweet, sweet Reed (assuming they don’t make a trade this offseason).  So, other than maybe sitting vs. lefties, Reed should play.  What’s more fun than making lazy comparisons?  Nothing!  So, with that said, Lance Berkman in his first season hit .237 and 4 homers in 93 ABs at 23 years old then broke out in his next season.  I mean, sure, he doesn’t look like Berkman and Berkman was a switch-hitter, but for lazy comparisons’ sake, that’s pretty good!  In 2017, I’ll give Reed the projections of 47/15/54/.235 in 384 ABs with upside from there and I like the chances of him finding his groove by the 2nd half of the year and heading into 2018 as a breakout candidate.

  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Nice write-up, looks like you had someone had their wheaties today!!!

    a. Can’t stop laughing about the Billy Idol reference. He’s been so dancing with himself for so long, I’m amazed you pulled that one out of your rabbit-filled hat!

    b. So, if I understood correctly AJ Reed will break out just like Lance Berkman broke out because they had the same year 23 seasons!! Thanks so much, have already contacted my bookie to put 10000 $ on AJ Reed breaking out and another 10000$ on AJ Reed hitting 30 HRs!

    c. Remember during the season when guys would say ‘First to go’ and then Cram would reply – you’re such a douche!?? ‘Member? Long for those days, so in memory of all the douchey guys and girls who proclaimed to be first to go…..FIRST TO GO!!!!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: Thanks, Ante! A. Haha B. Crazier things have happened in this country…Don’t put nothing past, Murica! C. First to go where?

  2. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Sorry, can I take back my introductory sentence? Guess not, looks like someone else did not have their wheaties today!

    Cheers,
    Ante

  3. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    a. Please help me. More massive SNAFU!

    b. This morning the plane arrived (Boss! Boss!, the plane, the plane!) safely with passengers returning from their mission in N’Djamena. Of course, the same plane after landing and off-loading of passengers couldn’t start up again. It’s not even my problem – it’s WFP’s problem who runs the whole air show – but of course it impacts on our operation. Hopefully they can bring the spare part from another location close by tomorrow and then they can take off with only one day of delay. Hoping for best case scenario outcome!

    c. Then, an ambulance that we loaned to a partner organization got hijacked this morning. They were traveling alone, always a good idea to signal to would-be hijackers that you are traveling alone. They dropped off a patient in Abeche and were returning to one of the refugee camps. Long story short, they need a new ambulance to transport cases that can’t be treated in the camp-based clinic (ectopic pregnancies and near-death situations) and I don’t think the new administration (led by The Donald) is going to go for it. Alas!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: B. It takes courage to go to Africa to help, but I’m starting to think it takes courage and a whole lot of luck… Like every step of the way sounds like it could be the end, from the ten hour drives to go 100 miles to the planes C. See B, crazy!

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @Grey: Grey!

        If you’re out there or in here….just to let you know.

        a. I’m ok, therefore you’re ok – what a crock, Dr. Spock. But I am ok, so you must be ok, ok?

        b. Through the wonders of modernity….we have an asset tracking system that’s able to track the movement any item in real time by just knowing the asset bar code!!! In short, we found the ambulance!!! But there are a lot of peculiarities surrounding the story.

        1. The ambulance (a brand new vehicle btw) was overtaken by 3 men (I kid you not!) on a motorcycle!!! The bandits pursued (hot pursuit, part deux) the ambulance for 15 km (10 miles) and succeeded in overtaking the vehicle when they fired gun shots into the air.

        2. The bandits kidnapped the driver and took the petty cash that was supposed to pay salaries for staff in the refugee camp where the ambulance originated from. Well, the money is gone but the driver and all other passengers are safe and the vehicle is safe.

        3. Wish I had one of them ‘Limitless’ pills to take so that I could better understand the stupid scenario of how 3 guys on a motorcycle (and it’s not a suped up Harley, I assure you) can overtake a new Nissan 4X4. I guess Trump is right, we need to get rid of all the foreigners. Oh, man. we’re done.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A. Ha! I *am* okay though B. Glad it wasn’t an emergency 1. Holy crap! 2. Jesus! 3. This is insane

  4. nick the dick says:
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    New Tribe album??!!??

      • nick the dick says:
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        @Big Odio: I’d guess before the grave but maybe Phife ghostwrote some

        • Big Odio says:
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          @nick the dick: wait. I’m a an idiot. All rappers rap from the grave.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      If they considered having Phife on the album, Tip clanging on Phife’s bones, then not cool

      • nick the dick says:
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        @Grey: Haha drop that tibia, rock that fibula! Haven’t heard any yet, didn’t even know it was a thing til my brother told me this morning

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Five-footer’s stepping with the roughneck business…because, I Tip, is moving his feet

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: Phife has some verses. He named the album from all reports.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I got Kids on repeat, this is our anthem….Kids don’t you know all of this shit is fantasy!

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: Yeah I didn’t want to ruin the surprise. It’s dope and we can use it! Hahaha

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Dis Generation is pretty dope too

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Grey: Yeah I like Space Program as well. I need to give it the smoke test tonight though.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Not feeling the Kanye song but only one listen

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’ve never heard so much Jairobi

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: Hahaha!

      • Nation says:
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        @Grey: Love the album so far. Youre right on the Jairobi tho

        Space program is fantastic. Love how much busta is on there. Its a solid 9.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s growing on me more, love Ego and Conrad Tokyo

  5. Eric Radden says:
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    Yes, new Tribe today – all is going to be OK.

      • ERad says:
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        @Grey: I really dig it – I always defer to you for hip/hop critiques – but after my first listen, sounds like classic Tribe with the current climate mixed in.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Awesome! Is it available to stream? Or is a purchase?

          • ERad says:
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            @Grey: Streaming on spotify currently

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ah, cool, thanks!

          • nick the dick says:
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            @Grey: You can stream, and skipping thru it quickly, it sounds awesome

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Where can you stream? Link please

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Got it, Spotify

              • nick the dick says:
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                @Grey: Man, Tip came with some bars

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Loved the first song, then Spotify started buffering… You listening on Spotify or found it somewhere else?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Eff it, I just bought it, they deserve the support

                  • ERad says:
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                    @Grey: Dis Generation is so good.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Totally! I also like Space Program

                • Ralph Lifshitz

                  Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                  @nick the dick: Yeah kinda shocking.

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @nick the dick: @Grey: Listened to the whole thing, first time through its good. Tip did bring bars, it’s been awhile since he spit like that.

                Standout to me is Kids with Andre 3000 and Tip going back and forth. Andre is so f-OMG Dope!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Which song has Andre? So far Ilike Space Program, We the People ad Dis Generation

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: Yeah me too! It’s Tribe, and I’m officially old now that I’m more excited for groups that have been inactive for 20 years coming back than anything current. .

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I haven’t been this excited for a release in a while which is sad and simultaneously awesome

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Oh, Kids, I see…

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: song 6 or 7

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @Ralph Lifshitz: Andre is my goddamn fav, so so dope

  6. Dude says:
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    Is Bumgarner or Lester a better keeper?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Bum

  7. Big Odio says:
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    I really appreciate the civil political conversations we have had in here but I’ve had this f%$&@!g song stuck in my head.

    https://youtu.be/WEXCgdAyWcw

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That was great…. I was thinking yesterday that we have a president that called Rosie O’Donnell a fat pig, then was called on it, said, yeah, but just Rosie, cause she is

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: I can’t stand rosie so he does have a point

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, that was why he didn’t hear much push back, but imagine any other president saying that? Reagan, “Rosemary Clooney is a fat pig, Nuff said.”

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Grey: I wonder if Chris Blimpie sheds a small tear every time the Donald ripped Rosie

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Christie strikes me as the type to be fat but laugh at others like he’s not…. Chris Christ-you’re-fat? Hmm…Needs work

              • Big Odio says:
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                @Grey: like he calls someone a big fat pig while shoving a sub down his gullet?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Totally! Right?

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: that’s a great song especially when they say books and then goes silent

        • Gigorilla says:
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          Way too funny, thanks for sharing.

          And Grey, Tesla fan?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Tesla, the car, or Tesla the band?

            • Gigorilla says:
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              the band — referencing your “sweet, sweet, love” note above

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Ah…Yeah

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, you listening to Tribe? Pretty solid!

          • Gigorilla says:
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            Looking for it now

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Big Odio: This is amazing

  8. Chris says:
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    I was offered Braden Shipley for a 3rd round minor league pick, what’s your thoughts on him?
    Thank you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Low Ks, 92 MPH fastball, bad park, kinda bleh… Shipley is not very good, I’d pass

  9. Tweak says:
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    In one league, I snagged Reed this year in an effort to build for the future. I got him, Jesse Winker and a Rd 2 pick for Josh Bell and Glasnow. I’m hoping he does break out in the 2nd half next year, but my insurance is split between Justin Turner and Pujols at 1B for next season. 2018 MVP here we come!

    Separately, I just moved Gary Sanchez, Josh Reddick, Jay Bruce and Carson Fulmer for Novio Stanton, Seung Hwan Oh and Jerk-hoff. I’m hoping to be able to frankencatcher next year with Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That catcher situation sounds gross, but it’s still early, someone could break out… I don’t mind the Novio trade, should be okay, but you did pay

      • Tweak says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, someone usually breaks out. Who knows with Zunino, but Hedges did seem to figure some things out last year in AAA. I assume the .180-hitting Norris won’t be a huge inhibitor to Hedges’ playing time and maybe some of Hedges’ adjustments stick (seems as though he was swinging a lot more with lower walk rates). If not, other guys are always floating out there and I can just pick up the weekly passable bat.

        As for Winker, dude just looks like a good hitter. He’ll be up in time to play with Votto for a bit, and a guy with a roughly .400 OBP, equal walk and K-rates plus decent pop with room to grow will play well in Cincy.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I don’t love the Padres’ aspect of Hedges, but it’s just a catcher slot, not too worried… Winker does look good, but he needs to get promoted and play already

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Tweak: Winker could break out of the power returns post wrist injury. Everything else was there.

  10. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Do you think that league-wide HR totals will normalize next year, or is 2016 the new norm? Obviously pretty impossible to know for sure . . . but definitely impacts the keeper value of those HR-only guys who hit in the 20-HR range for 2016.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think it will take a small dip back

  11. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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    I’m away one day and miss all the Tribe talk. Downloaded it but haven’t listened to one second of it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Get on it!

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Grey: I haven’t either. Went with my dad to the QB Club at the rose bowl to listen to the new ucla play by play guy speak who also happens to be the mets play by play radio announcer and chargers radio announcer. Total old guy thing but it was kinda cool. And now back to work

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Mets’ play by play guy? Gary Cohen?

          • Big Odio says:
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            @Grey: radio guy is Josh Lewin

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ah… So how does he broadcast Mets games in Sept. when Chargers are playing?

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Grey: They probably have a regular fill-in

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ha, prolly

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Jesus, that’s insane

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: right?!?!

                    Talk about dedicated to your craft. If I put half that effort into my life I’d be making way more money than I do now.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      So, does he skip Sunday Mets games when Chargers are playing?

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      I don’t know. I’m assuming he does. I have to wonder how much longer he does the mets. He loves California and UCLA was his dream job. Which is odd. He did tv but didn’t like it and really enjoys calling college games.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It’s funny(not funny) how different TV and radio prolly vary b/c you just don’t need to say as much about the action that the viewer is seeing vs. needing to explain so much to the radio listener

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      Most TV broadcasts are garbage anyway. I like radio because the info they share is more indepth

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, for the most part radio guys are just more learned than TV guys… Whereas TV guys are mostly ex-players that are homers

    • nick the dick says:
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      @Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: It’s got some good stuff, hop to it Noisey!….how is the new Czarface?? Haven’t tried it out yet.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Is it lit AF?

          • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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            @Grey: Haha, I think? Actually I think it’s the worst of the 3, but still better than most of what comes out these days. You check that song? Psycho Les is on it.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Listening now…Please listen to We the People by Tribe

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I think everyone needs to retire “you minor, we major” forever

              • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                @Grey: Nice. Soooo Tip probably isn’t happy about Tuesday.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Doesn’t seem so… I listened to that Czarface song a few times, it was all right, didn’t love it

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: I think Psycho LES sounds washed up AF on that Czarface song. How you going to say, greatest of all-time with recycled lines and rhymes? I hope Esoteric paid him in saltines and used condom rappers for that verse.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, I feel like I’ve heard that song before… No insult to you, Noisewater… The song didn’t sound bad, just felt kinda been there

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      hA! Thats how I feel about these rookie write-ups

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: I liked the rest of it. Love the drums. I just think Beatnuts weren’t good enough to come back with more recycled played out slang and phrasing from 1998-2006.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, agreed… And don’t want to hear “you minor, we major” ever again

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      I’m not offended by anyone not liking it. I agree, like the drums. I did say I thought it’s the worst of them, but there hasn’t been much released lately.

                      And Ralph….think Eso mailed it in a few tracks himself. Some verses sounded like he put in no effort.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      You gots to get on this Tribe shizz! The Space Program, We the People…, and Dis Generation to start

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      On a side note, you check out that podcast I mentioned yesterday? Generation Why

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      I was just trying to YouTube the new Tribe but they took down all of the audio. I just have it on my iPod since my only computer is for work, and I don’t have music on my phone like I’m my dad.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha, damn, Pops!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      One thing I’ll say about new tribe negatively, I kinda wanna skip all Jairobi verses

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      No my girl is the podcast person, I’ll have to give them a try. I might have to start with My Dad Wrote a Porno though, read up on it some…seems pretty legit.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It’s good, I’ve been liking true crime podcasts recently… Breakdown by Atlanta Journal Constitution is solid too

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      I need to get on the podcast thing. Think I’d enjoy the true crime ones.

                      Speaking of true….any good documentaries lately?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I’ve been tied up with Justified for a month but you ever see Thin Blue Line, it’s old but great

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      It was always on my list but never got around to it. I’ll make it next.

                      I just got my first iphone this month, and so yeah, apparently I do have music on my phone, ha. Just listed to Kids and The Space Program.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha… I love that you’re just now figuring out your phone… The Space Program and We the People are my favorite, Kids is 3rd favorite… yeah, I’m ranking them

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      Come on, my iTunes was on my phone without me doing anything. Is it magic?!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ha! Yes, yes it is… Apple is now in the process of making you completely dependent on Apple products across all platforms

    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz: Never heard of Mikey D but that track was nice.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nice! Any good?

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Listen! Lol

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ugh, I love Rugged’s voice it doesn’t even matter the song… loved the Marley Mark Symphony sample into Craig G… liking it!

  12. nick the dick says:
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    Add Conrad Tokyo and Ego to your ranks. I’m liking this album almost as much as the fact that they did this album…I guess a new Gambino album came out today, whom I don’t like much hip hop-wise, but I appreciate the weirdness of stuff like this https://youtu.be/_hZCsgcKa-g …can’t believe you didn’t really like the Czarface albums, I was stuck on the last one for a while. Feel like you half-assed your listen, although I haven’t heard the new one yet.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Likely did half-ass listen… I have music going all day and if I’m writing, it’s in the background and I don’t full pay attention to it… I might need to listen on its own… I did not like that Mama Gambino song, and I like him hip-hop-wise… I loved his last album… Maybe it was a one listen thing, and I need to try it again…. Tribe! I might feel the same way, I might like the fact they did an album as much as anything… But a few songs are solid

    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
      (link)

      @nick the dick: Haha yeah I almost posted that one instead. That beat is mean.

      Think the album is a good listen, not the best but not trash. 7L even scratches on one song. Honest to god DJ scratching a record, that’s a thing of beauty these days.

      • Big Odio says:
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        @Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: HA! I found an old dj mix last night from around 04ish and I was like oh yeah. Turntablism takes me back

  13. Boomer19 says:
    (link)

    Saw a recent mock you did where you picked Goldy second overall. Pretty bold statement. I like him there too but I’d have a tough time passing over Betts. I do like your draft. As far as pitching goes who do you like better out of Salazar and Carrasco? Or are they pretty much same tier? Enjoy the day!

Comments are closed.