No, not a Pirates of the Caribbean reference there. Well, maybe it’s inspired from it. Is that better? But rather than the dreaded undead ship that rises from the abyss of Davey Jones Locker, this Dutchman fills his opponents with dread while letting his luscious locks flow henceforth through the strong winds of the…Flushing skyline? Alright, it stops there (for now). Who we talking about? Noah Syndergaard. Sweet mercy, if he aint the best Mets starter out of their vaunted rotation then I don’t know what everyone else is thinking. Well, this week at least.
One of the best indicators into determining the success of a Two-Start pitcher is examining his opponents. Plurals. Two of ’em. You want the pitcher that doesn’t just slay one dragon in a week, but two of ’em. Double Dragon. Two Dragons. I digress. Or do I? Taking down two opponents isn’t an easy task, but when a top-tier pitcher is served the Phillies and Braves on a silver freaking platter, guess what? Here comes the dragon slayer…if the dragons played are essentially of the AAA variety. Two poopy lineups vs. one mighty SP means the top of the rankings for that blonde behemoth taking the mound for the Mets.
And since we’re talking about the Flying Dutchman, we’ll carry over the precedent set by the Week 2 Two-Start Pitcher Rankings and categorize the tiers through a film franchise: Pirates of the Caribbean! And whaddaya know, it even fits with the amount of tiers we have. Gee whillakers!
In the Two-Start Pitcher Primer we discussed the strategy to finding the best two-start options. Being early in the year it’s difficult to pull statistical data on the opposing team’s lineups, so these rankings will revert to some 2015 stats for the pitchers. Are we really doing that again? Ya dern right. We’re dropping last year’s Park Factors, and staying with the pitcher’s numbers. Waaaay too many invariables to rely upon that number for the third week in April 2016. Also, as this is being written, the White Sox are 8-2. Think that’s a true indicator of future production? (And everyone outside of the Southside said, ‘Uh, no.’) We’ll stick to 2015 one more time.
And don’t worry… even if I used this year’s stats to designate rank, Syndergaard would still be at the top. Dude’s been unhittable.
Pitchers are listed in order by rank.
Curse of the Black Pearl (Aces) – Am I really putting the original film at the top of the list, even though there have been three others (and a four on the way) made in the franchise? Would they really keep making films that aren’t better than the original just to make money? Uh huh. So if Curse of the Black Pearl is the O.G. of PotC films, then Warren G would sing about these guys, as well. Savvy?
| Player | Opponents | 2015 ERA/FIP/K9 |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Syndergaard | @ PHI @ ATL | 3.24/3.25/9.96 |
| Jose Fernandez | vs. WAS, @ SF | 2.92/2.24/10.99 |
| Stephen Strasburg | @ MIA, vs. MIN | 3.46/2.81/10.96 |
| Carlos Carrasco | vs. SEA, @ DET | 3.63/2.84/10.58 |
| Carlos Rodon | vs. LAA, vs. TEX | 3.75/3.87/8.98 |
| Francisco Liriano | @ SD, @ ARI | 3.38/3.19/9.88 |
Dead Man’s Chest (Good Starts) – A solid sequel that developed the Pirate world enough to garner more films, but it could quite recapture the magic of the first. Like many of the starters in this tier, a clear #2 to the aces above.
| Player | Opponents | 2015 ERA/FIP/K9 |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Pineda | vs. OAK, vs. TB | 4.37/3.34/8.74 |
| Marcus Stroman | @ BAL, vs. OAK | 1.67/3.54/6.00 |
| Yordano Ventura | vs. DET, vs. BAL | 4.08/3.57/8.60 |
| Raisel Iglesias | vs. COL, vs. CHC | 4.15/3.55/9.82 |
| Drew Smyly | @ BOS, @ NYY | 3.11/3.91/10.40 |
| John Lackey | @ STL, @ CIN | 2.77/3.57/7.22 |
On Stranger Tides (Why Can’t I Sit You?) – Penelope Cruz. That’s enough. I didn’t understand four words that she said, but it’s Penelope Cruz. Period.
| Player | Opponents | 2015 ERA/FIP/K9 |
|---|---|---|
| Jerad Eickhoff | vs. NYM, @ MIL | 2.65/3.25/8.65 |
| Jason Hammel | @ STL, @ CIN | 3.74/3.68/9.07 |
| J.A. Happ | @ BAL, vs. OAK | 3.61/3.41/7.90 |
| Clay Buchholz | vs. TOR, @ HOU | 3.26/2.68/8.50 |
| Adam Conley | vs. WAS, @ SF | 3.76/3.81/7.93 |
| Ervin Santana | vs. MIL, @ WAS | 4.00/4.17/6.83 |
At World’s End (One Good/One Bad) – I mean, ‘Calypso,’ sand rock crabs, peanuts, Jack tripping more balls than the inspiration for the character, Keith Richards, ever did just made the third film all the more confusing. Through all the wtf moments, though, it did enough to garner another film. Always a silver lining.
| Player | Opponents | 2015 ERA/FIP/K9 |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | @ ATL, @ COL | 3.84/3.69/6.60 |
| Tanner Roark | @ MIA, vs. MIN | 4.38/4.70/5.68 |
| Mat Latos | vs. LAA, vs. TEX | 4.95/3.72/7.74 |
| Hector Santiago | @ CWS, vs. SEA | 3.59/4.77/8.07 |
| Mike Leake | vs. CHC, @ SD | 3.70/4.20/5.58 |
| Phil Hughes | vs. MIL, @ WAS | 4.40/4.70/5.45 |
| Shane Greene | vs. PIT, @ HOU | 6.88/5.14/5.38 |
| Robbie Ray | @ SF, vs. PIT | 3.52/3.53/8.39 |
| Jake Peavy | vs. ARI, vs. MIA | 3.58/3.87/6.34 |
Dead Men Tell No Tales (Avoid) – It’s a total crapshoot. Who knows where the franchise goes with the fifth installment, and who in the bloody hell knows how these starts will shake out come Week 4. Are there a few that hold potential? Well, sure! Just like Aaron Nola and Brandon Finnegan last week, for whom I got bombarded worse than the brothel in Tortuga when the Pearl made it’s way to port, you can find some gems in here, but tread with caution.
| Player | Opponents | 2015 ERA/FIP/K9 |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Anderson | @ MIN, vs. PHI | 4.30/4.14/6.54 |
| Matt Cain | vs. ARI, vs. MIA | 5.79/5.54/6.08 |
| Wade Miley | @ CLE, @ LAA | 4.46/3.81/6.83 |
| Matt Shoemaker | @ CHW, vs. SEA | 4.46/4.59/7.71 |
| Joe Kelly | vs. TB, @ HOU | 4.82/4.18/7.37 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | vs. TOR, @ KC | 4.11/4.01/8.22 |
| Kendall Graveman | @ NYY, @ TOR | 4.05/4.60/5.99 |
| Rubby De La Rosa | @ SF, vs. PIT | 4.67/4.81/7.16 |
| Matt Wisler | vs. LAD, vs. NYM | 4.71/4.93/5.94 |
| Wily Peralta | @ MIN, vs. PHI | 4.72/4.84/4.97 |
| Colin Rea | vs. PIT, vs. STL | 4.26/3.45/7.39 |
| Alfredo Simon | vs. COL, vs. CHC | 5.06/4.77/5.63 |
| A.J. Griffin | vs. HOU, @ CHW | N/A |
| Scott Feldman | @ TEX, vs. BOS | 3.90/4.32/5.07 |
| Jordan Lyles | @ CIN, vs. LAD | 5.14/3.79/5.51 |
Like with last week, I’m sure there will be some adjustments to the list from the time I finish writing and you read this, but we’ll provide the addendums as we can. Good luck with Week 3, and leave those thoughts in the comments! Check back next weekend for Week 4!
