For the 2026 fantasy baseball season, every team has about 65 games down and almost 100 games still to go after the first ten weeks of the season. Since even 60 games aren’t nearly enough to draw any conclusions, we will spend these posts in the middle of the season looking at the risers and fallers in fantasy baseball from an under-the-hood stats perspective.
Even over a long Spring Training and ten weeks of meaningful games, this amount of production is not actually a lot of information to use when evaluating players for the rest of the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, lineup placement, platoon splits, and other factors when trying to determine what to do with tough player choices.
This piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall over the last few weeks. This will hopefully give us an idea of what to do with these players moving forward.
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Jarren Duran (OF), Boston Red Sox
There simply isn’t a hotter hitter in Major League Baseball than Jarren Duran over the last 14 days. He has a .320 average and a .700 slugging percentage, to go along with his five home runs and 11 RBI in that time. He has as many home runs as the rest of the Red Sox team during the hot streak.
Duran does have some things to worry about, namely a .423 BABIP and a 36% strikeout rate in the last two weeks, but I bet he will take those after about a season and a quarter of not playing up to his own sky-high expectations. Compared to last season, he has improved his barrel rate, his launch angle, and his bat speed, which have all aided his jump in fly ball rate.
There could be some regression in the days and weeks ahead, but Duran seems to have settled into a spot where he relies more on his power and just uses his speed when necessary. Duran doesn’t have a steal during this two-week heater, but the fantasy baseball world can’t be complaining about that too much.
Casey Schmitt (1B/2B/3B/OF), San Francisco Giants
When Luis Arraez was signed to play second base for the San Francisco Giants this offseason, many saw it as foretelling the end of Casey Schmitt’s playing time in the Bay Area. Arraez would play second, Rafael Devers would be at first, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman had the left side of the infield on lockdown, and prized prospect Bryce Eldridge would be up soon to take over DH and the occasional first base relief.
But then something happened. Schmitt started off the season hitting well before Edldridge came up, and while Harrison Bader was hurt. He is hitting .282/.318/.524 with 12 home runs and five steals through 53 games at a variety of positions.
The biggest difference for Schmitt in 2026 has been the quality of contact, particularly hard contact. His barrel rate has jumped to 14.6%, a massive improvement from the 6.7% mark he posted as a rookie and well above the 9.0% rate he managed in 2025. At the same time, his hard-hit rate has climbed into the 45% range after sitting at 34% in 2023, 36% in 2024, and 43.8% in 2025. Those gains have translated directly into better expected numbers, with Schmitt posting career highs in xSLG and xwOBA while producing far more hard hits when he puts the ball in play.
Brent Rooker (OF), Athletics
If Brent Rooker wants to hit 30 home runs in four straight seasons, he has a lot of work to do from now until the end of September. He also might miss out on extending a streak of seasons with at least 89 RBI. Injuries have cost him a couple of weeks of games, and it seems he has been trying to claw back his production ever since. In the last couple of weeks, it has definitely been working.
Rooker is currently hitting just .195/.278/.365 with eight home runs and 26 RBI. But those numbers are pulled down by a BABIP of just .240 on the season. If Rooker had enough plate appearances to qualify, that number would be one of the 20 worst marks in the league.
The league average this season is about .291, so Rooker is about 50 points away from even being average in that category. For his career, Rooker is at .314. That will start turning around as health improves. He has the right park and right lineup protection to turn this around. Lately, it’s starting to happen. In the last seven days, Rooker is hitting .250/.294/.500 with a .300 BABIP.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Brandon Nimmo (OF), Texas Rangers
Brandon Nimmo‘s strong start in the first couple of weeks of the 2026 season captured some fantasy attention, but lately, his numbers have predictably crashed to normal or even below-average production.
Nimmo has been riding a massive wave of fortune fueled by a BABIP of .305 that is above the league average and out of line with his 21% strikeout rate. Because he isn’t a premium speed threat who can beat out infield singles or steal many bases, Nimmo’s BABIP is a direct indicator of trends that usually correct themselves over time.
The most alarming part of Nimmo’s early-season profile is his strikeout rate. He is swinging and missing on pitches he normally hits, which is significantly lowering his floor. Usually, Nimmo caps his strikeout downside with an elite walk rate, but his walks have remained stagnant in the single digits (only around 8% in 2026), making him rely on his unstable hit luck.
Once Nimmo’s BABIP regresses to the mean, that elevated strikeout rate will drag his batting average down to some point around his career number of .260, making him an outfielder who is struggling right now, but could get even worse.
Freddie Freeman (1B), Los Angeles Dodgers
Freddie Freeman, at almost 37 years old, is nowhere near the fantasy baseball asset he used to be. Freeman was a top-40 player in draft rooms, but he is ranked lower than 150 in fantasy rotisserie leagues this season. The reason? He is hitting only .266/.355/.458 with nine home runs and 32 RBI.
For comparison, teammate Andy Pages has 13 home runs and 50 RBI already. Freeman is still showing a little pop this season, but has largely disappointed. Even with a .266/.355/.458 line, imagine where he would be if not for the eight hits and three home runs he has had in his last six games.
Freeman’s Statcast numbers still seem to be mostly in line with his career numbers, but his zone swing percentage has fallen more than two percentage points. He isn’t being as aggressive with pitches in the zone overall. That can change, of course, but for now, what Freeman is doing does not put him in the top eight first basemen overall.
Bo Bichette (SS), New York Mets
Fantasy managers who drafted Bo Bichette are likely getting very frustrated right about now. It’s starting to look like 2024 all over again. Like many of the Mets, it has been abysmal for large parts of 2026. But the underlying metrics scream a buy-low opportunity for Bichette, at least.
The absolute biggest driver of his early-season struggles has been his very low .241 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For a player with a career BABIP well north of .330 who consistently sprays line drives across the field, this is a real statistical misfortune in 2026, rather than some kind of skills decline or poor discipline. He is hitting the ball hard like in previous seasons (45.5% hard-hit rate, 46.8% for his career).
While his luck on batted balls has disappeared, his walk rate has held firm at over 7%, preventing his on-base percentage (OBP) from completely cratering. He also is down to just a 16% strikeout rate, which is the second-best mark of his career. When a hitter maintains his vision and approach while suffering from batted-ball luck, positive regression is likely to happen, but it hasn’t come for Bichette yet. In the last 14 days, he has been hitting .167/.245/.167.
Great stuff, CBS! Speaking of fallers, is it possible Stowers 2025 was a mirage? Beginning to look like his plate discipline is reverting to pre-breakout quality. Given his late start due to injury, would you be buying or selling a turnaround this season? Thanks!
In a vacuum. Gunnar or Marsh?