I lived Fast and Furious before Fast and Furious. But I was never Dom, Brian, or Han. I was just some extra in the way, way background, standing and watching while my Civic was parked around the block; a Civic that was modified with rims, springs, exhaust, and other accessories, but no NOS, roll cage, or amenities under the hood. In essence, the car was All Show, No Go. There was no pink slip racing. Some of my buddies, though, were hardcore into racing. I will always chuckle at how some were in Decepticon and Autobot crews, with Decepticon logos plastered all over. The cars, though, were legit, as modifications made them look amazing and super fast as well. Last season, Daulton Varsho made some huge modifications, increasing the bat speed, which helped produce a career-high average exit velocity and barrel rate. This season, though, Varson made a concerted effort to go in another direction. Can he still be fantasy relevant?
Daulton Varsho is 29 years old, 5-foot-8, 207 pounds, and bats from the left side. The Arizona Diamondbacks selected him in the second round of the 2017 draft. He was then traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2022.
Varsho only spent three seasons in the minors because he showed power, speed, and excellent plate discipline. The walk rate was around 9% while the strikeout rate was 20%. The ISO was in the .180 range. In 2018, Varsho ended with 12 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 354 plate appearances. The following season, he racked up 18 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 452 plate appearances.
2020 is when he made his MLB debut, slashing .188/.287/.366 in 115 plate appearances. The walk rate was 10.4%, strikeout rate was 28.7%, and ISO was .178. He finished with three home runs and three stolen bases.
2022 was the career year for Varsho, finishing with 27 home runs, 79 runs, 74 RBI, and 16 stolen bases in 592 plate appearances. The slash was only .235/.302/.443 with a 7.8% walk rate, 24.5% strikeout rate, and .207 ISO.
That was the status quo for the next few years. Up to that point, the average exit velocity was around 87 mph while Varsho always had a high launch angle – 18 to 24 degrees. The barrel rate was all over the map, with a high of 10.2% and a low of 4.4%. The pull rate was around 37% his first two stints, but that number was over 50% every year after.
Then last season happened.
Daulton Varsho blasted 20 home runs in only 271 plate appearances. The ISO was a whopping .310. Sure, some of it was due to the elevated 21.3% HR/FB rate, but most of it was due to the increased bat speed and average exit velocity. Varsho increased his bat speed from 73.7 mph to 75.6 mph, while the average exit velocity was 89.9 mph, after being in the 87 mph range for the rest of his career. The launch angle was 23.6 degrees while the barrel rate was 15.9%.
Not all was good, though, as the strikeout rate was a career-high at 28.4% while the BABIP was only .250.
This season, Varsho has channeled his inner Simone Biles. Through 179 plate appearances, the slash is .278/.346/.438 with a .320 BABIP. The walk rate is back up at 8.4% while the strikeout rate is way down at 17.9%. The average exit velocity is back down to 86.8 mph, while the bat speed is at 72.9 mph. That pull rate? 40%, a career-low. The ISO is .160. This is definitely an organizational thing, as the Blue Jays are dead-last in strikeout rate at 18.4% as a team.
Varsho has racked up five home runs, 22 runs, 15 RBI, and four stolen bases.
On the ESPN Player Rater, Daulton Varsho is 89th. On the Razzball Player Rater, he’s at 169. ROS, Rudy’s bot has Varsho at 226.
My initial thought before writing this piece was that I would want no part of Varsho because lift-and-pull, swing-for-the-fences is what makes fantasy goodies rain down from the sky. The more contact/conservative approach has dampened the fantasy prospects for Varsho, but there is still utility. Straight contact/batting average players are unappealing, but Varsho does still have some pop and speed, and often bats in the middle of the batting order.
That man ain’t trash!