Who doesn’t love sugar? Okay, a diabetic, but there’s a good chance that they loved sugar a little too much, no? How could someone not love a commodity that makes any food or drink sweeter and is used to describe “good lovin?” The thing about sugar, though, is that it is a complementary item. Granted, I used to love popping those C&H sugar cubes into my mouth. The sweetness. The way it felt when the cube melted from the saliva in my mouth. Mmmmm. Do you think I have a future as an erotic writer? Penthouse forum writer for sure. Anyways, sugar can never be a main item. No matter how you dress it up or package it. Which brings me to Lorenzo Cain.
Cain is batting .285 with 10 home runs and 14 stolen bases on the season. The Razzball Player Rater has him as the 24th outfielder. The ESPN Player Rater has him as the 11th outfielder. Did ESPN fire the guy that maintains the Player Rater as well? Rest assured that Rudy is on top of our Player Rater everyday.
There’s so much to like about Cain. 10% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate. The swinging strike rate is only 9% and he makes very good contact. 89% in the strike zone and 81% in general. The BABIP is .317, wOBA is .355, and ISO is .183. Many of the numbers look similar to Cain’s 2015 season. If you forgot, Cain ended the season as the 14th OVERALL player, according to fangraphs.com. During that magical season, Cain had a .307 batting average, .341 wOBA, .347 BABIP, .171 ISO, hit 16 home runs, and stole 28 bases. That was in 140 games with 604 plate appearances. So far, Cain has played 65 games with 277 plate appearances.
Looking at the batted ball profile, he’s hitting the ball just as hard at 32% for both 2015 and 2017. The soft contact % has increased 7% though. He is hitting more fly balls, which has increased both the fly ball and HR/FB rates by 3%. So, can we expect a repeat of 2015?
Highly unlikely.
Cain is projected to hit more home runs than 2015 and steal as many bases, yet the runs scored and RBI are expected to fall way short. He currently has 37 runs scored with 26 RBI. There are 80 players that have hit 10 home runs this season. Out of that group, 32 players have scored fewer runs. Only two, Chris Davis and Mike Napoli, have fewer RBI. The projection systems have Cain down for 40 runs scored and 40 RBI rest of season. That would put him at 77 runs scored and 66 RBI. The Royals are dead last in RBI, fourth-worst in runs scored, and 11th-worst in home runs hit.
Cain is a nice complementary player. He will provide steals and home runs with a high batting average, but he won’t carry a squad. I think most know who Cain is, but if there is someone that believes this is a repeat of 2015, strike while the iron is hot.
VERDICT:
