Michael Conforto, 2017 Fantasy Baseball

HOT TAKE! Haha, everyone can get all giddy about the renaissance happening in Washington, but I’ll take my attention a little further north in the NL East. Sure, a certain Zimmerman is on pace for like 75 HR and 180 RBI, but I’m not interested in the past. Give me the future. You can take your old balls and five year plan, I’ll take the upside of a incredible prospect we’ve been waiting on for two years.

Listen, everything’s lining up for this. Curtis Granderson? He forgot how to hit. The Mets pitching staff? Essentially dead. Haha, they have Jose Reyes playing 3B. For the Mets, the future is now (watch out for Amed Rosario to get the call soon), and a primary cog for them in that movement is Michael Conforto. Finally.

If you lookout the current stats and slap line, Zimmerman’s the choice, but in projecting out the future, I’d take the younger option. Even ZiPS agrees with a 21 HR to 16 HR ROS projection in favor of Michael. (Keep reading…I’m a fan of Zimmerman, too.)

Michael Conforto, OF, NYM (75.9% owned) – With a current line of .325/17/7/20/1 Conforto’s bringing great value since taking over an everyday role. All those numbers are in only 96 PA. Looking deeper the peripheral stats seem to be sustainable, as well, whereas guys like Zimmerman have a massively inflated BABIP and ISO. And by massively inflated I mean it’s almost double anything consistent with their careers. Conforto, though, sports a .345 BABIP and a .300 ISO. Those may drop slightly, but even if they go down to the ZiPS numbers (in 450 PA) of a .224 ISO with a .292 BABIP it gives him a season ending slash of (~).285/81/28/88/3. That’s sustainable. And greater than Zimmerman. They’re both rising, but I’ll take the young buck. And if you’re in one of the 25% of ESPN leagues where he’s not owned…change that. Fast.

ROS projections are tough. Take the savvy veteran with a lower ceiling but higher floor? Go for the risk of the young’n without the history to prove he can do it further? Find what works for your team and go for it! Here’s the Top 100 Hitters…based on my thoughts! My. Subjective. Thoughts.

They just happen to be right a lot. Ha!

Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value

M@’s Top Hitters

(Rankings based on 12-team Roto. GREEN = player rising. RED = player dropping. BLUE = new to the 100.)

Rank	Name	Pos	Team
1	Mike Trout	LAA	OF
2	Bryce Harper	WSH	OF
3	Mookie Betts	BOS	OF
4	Nolan Arenado	COL	3B
5	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B
6	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B
7	Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	1B
8	Kris Bryant	CHC	3B/OF
9	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF
10	Trea Turner	WSH	SS/2B/OF
11	Manny Machado	BAL	3B/SS
12	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	1B
13	Corey Seager	LAD	SS
14	Joey Votto	CIN	1B
15	Daniel Murphy	WSH	1B/2B
16	Nelson Cruz	SEA	OF
17	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B
18	Francisco Lindor	CLE	SS
19	Ryan Braun	MIL	OF
20	Wil Myers	SD	1B/OF
21	Josh Donaldson	TOR	3B
22	Brian Dozier	MIN	2B
23	Robinson Cano	SEA	2B
24	Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	OF
25	Khris Davis	OAK	OF
26	Carlos Correa	HOU	SS
27	Eric Thames	MIL	1B/OF
28	A.J. Pollock	ARI	OF
29	Edwin Encarnacion	CLE	1B
30	Yoenis Cespedes	NYM	OF
31	Jonathan Villar	MIL	3B/SS
32	Christian Yelich	MIA	OF
33	George Springer	HOU	OF
34	Kyle Seager	SEA	3B
35	Matt Kemp	ATL	OF
36	Mark Trumbo	BAL	OF
37	Miguel Sano	MIN	3B/OF
38	Jose Ramirez	CLE	3B/OF
39	J.D. Martinez	DET	OF
40	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF
41	Jake Lamb	ARI	3B
42	Ian Desmond	COL	OF
43	Andrew Benintendi	BOS	OF
44	Matt Carpenter	STL	1B/2B/3B
45	Xander Bogaerts	BOS	SS
46	Ian Kinsler	DET	2B
47	Justin Upton	DET	OF
48	Jay Bruce	NYM	OF
49	Michael Brantley	CLE	OF
50	Jose Abreu	CWS	1B
51	Trevor Story	COL	SS
52	Gregory Polanco	PIT	OF
53	Buster Posey	SF	C/1B
54	Adam Jones	BAL	OF
55	Carlos Gonzalez	COL	OF
56	DJ LeMahieu	COL	2B
57	Rougned Odor	TEX	2B
58	Cesar Hernandez	PHI	2B
59	Michael Conforto	NYM	OF
60	Marcell Ozuna	MIA	OF
61	Justin Turner	LAD	3B
62	Anthony Rendon	WSH	3B
63	Aledmys Diaz	STL	SS
64	Jean Segura	SEA	2B/SS
65	Ryan Zimmerman	WAS	1B
66	Kyle Schwarber	CHC	OF
67	Adam Duvall	CIN	OF
68	Hanley Ramirez	BOS	1B
69	Evan Longoria	TB	3B
70	Lorenzo Cain	KC	OF
71	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B
72	Gary Sanchez	NYY	C
73	Chris Davis	BAL	1B
74	Odubel Herrera	PHI	OF
75	Cody Bellinger	LAD	1B
76	Carlos Santana	CLE	1B
77	Todd Frazier	CWS	1B/3B
78	Mitch Haniger	SEA	OF
79	Eugenio Suarez	CIN	3B
80	David Peralta	ARI	OF
81	Alex Bregman	HOU	3B
82	Corey Dickerson	TB	OF
83	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	OF
84	Ender Inciarte	ATL	OF
85	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS
86	Chris Owings	ARI	2B/SS
87	Jonathan Lucroy	TEX	C
88	Eric Hosmer	KC	1B
89	Jackie Bradley	BOS	OF
90	Dee Gordon	MIA	2B
91	Starlin Castro	NYY	2B
92	Billy Hamilton	CIN	OF
93	David Dahl	COL	OF
94	Yasmany Tomas	ARI	OF
95	Jonathan Schoop	BAL	2B
96	Brandon Phillips	ATL	2B
97	Scott Schebler	CIN	OF
98	Jason Heyward	CHC	OF
99	Yonder Alonso	OAK	1B
100	Stephen Piscotty	STL	OF

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

Rank	Name	Pos	Team
101	Avisail Garcia	CHW	OF
102	Jedd Gyorko	STL	2B/3B/SS
103	Aaron Hicks	NYY	OF
104	Troy Tulowitzki	TOR	SS
105	Maikel Franco	PHI	3B

Dropped from the Rankings: Nomar Mazara (89), Jason Kipnis (93), Manuel Margot (97), Kevin Kiermaier (98), Brad Miller (100)

A few notes on the 100:

A close second in the highlight was Cody Bellinger. I’m googoo for this dude. Massive ISO, an injured Adrian Gonzalez, enough wheels to flirt with 10 SB, and the defensive flexibility to eventually qualify in OF. Every year there’s a rookie that causes massive waves in the fantasy season, leading many to Championships. Here’s the hot take: for 2017 it’s Bellinger. Not Yoan Moncada, none of the stud pitchers, not Amed Rosario (who I can’t wait for). It’s this one.
Chris Owings is another player poised to win a lot of people belts. Similar to his predecessor, Owings may be this year’s version of Jean Segura.
Speaking of Segura, I was wrong on him it seems. I thought for sure we’d see unstoppable regression, given his small sample size of dominant hitting, but he’s proving otherwise since coming back from injury. I loved what Taylor Motter brought to the M’s, but man…gonna be hard to get at bats once Mitch Haniger returns if Segura keeps raking.
You could have seemingly drafted a team with Sano, Ramirez, Judge, Benintendi and Desmond. Goodness…I want that team. They’re all flying up the board, and I don’t see it slowing down much. I kept a $19 Alex Bregman over a $19 Andrew Benintendi in an AL-Only this year. #smh

As always…don’t agree with something?

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Follow M@ on Twitter at @matthayes for far more than just fantasy advice.