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Conforto Over Zimmerman …And The Top 100 Hitters, Week 6

May 8, 2017 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell, Fantasy Baseball Rankings | 54 Comments

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HOT TAKE! Haha, everyone can get all giddy about the renaissance happening in Washington, but I’ll take my attention a little further north in the NL East. Sure, a certain Zimmerman is on pace for like 75 HR and 180 RBI, but I’m not interested in the past. Give me the future. You can take your old balls and five year plan, I’ll take the upside of a incredible prospect we’ve been waiting on for two years.

Listen, everything’s lining up for this. Curtis Granderson? He forgot how to hit. The Mets pitching staff? Essentially dead. Haha, they have Jose Reyes playing 3B. For the Mets, the future is now (watch out for Amed Rosario to get the call soon), and a primary cog for them in that movement is Michael Conforto. Finally.

If you lookout the current stats and slap line, Zimmerman’s the choice, but in projecting out the future, I’d take the younger option. Even ZiPS agrees with a 21 HR to 16 HR ROS projection in favor of Michael. (Keep reading…I’m a fan of Zimmerman, too.)

  • Michael Conforto, OF, NYM (75.9% owned) – With a current line of .325/17/7/20/1 Conforto’s bringing great value since taking over an everyday role. All those numbers are in only 96 PA. Looking deeper the peripheral stats seem to be sustainable, as well, whereas guys like Zimmerman have a massively inflated BABIP and ISO. And by massively inflated I mean it’s almost double anything consistent with their careers. Conforto, though, sports a .345 BABIP and a .300 ISO. Those may drop slightly, but even if they go down to the ZiPS numbers (in 450 PA) of a .224 ISO with a .292 BABIP it gives him a season ending slash of (~).285/81/28/88/3. That’s sustainable. And greater than Zimmerman. They’re both rising, but I’ll take the young buck. And if you’re in one of the 25% of ESPN leagues where he’s not owned…change that. Fast.

ROS projections are tough. Take the savvy veteran with a lower ceiling but higher floor? Go for the risk of the young’n without the history to prove he can do it further? Find what works for your team and go for it! Here’s the Top 100 Hitters…based on my thoughts! My. Subjective. Thoughts.

They just happen to be right a lot. Ha!

Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value

[email protected]’s Top  Hitters

(Rankings based on 12-team Roto. GREEN = player rising. RED = player dropping. BLUE = new to the 100.)

Rank Name Pos Team
1 Mike Trout LAA OF
2 Bryce Harper WSH OF
3 Mookie Betts BOS OF
4 Nolan Arenado COL 3B
5 Jose Altuve HOU 2B
6 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B
7 Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B
8 Kris Bryant CHC 3B/OF
9 Charlie Blackmon COL OF
10 Trea Turner WSH SS/2B/OF
11 Manny Machado BAL 3B/SS
12 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B
13 Corey Seager LAD SS
14 Joey Votto CIN 1B
15 Daniel Murphy WSH 1B/2B
16 Nelson Cruz SEA OF
17 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B
18 Francisco Lindor CLE SS
19 Ryan Braun MIL OF
20 Wil Myers SD 1B/OF
21 Josh Donaldson TOR 3B
22 Brian Dozier MIN 2B
23 Robinson Cano SEA 2B
24 Giancarlo Stanton MIA OF
25 Khris Davis OAK OF
26 Carlos Correa HOU SS
27 Eric Thames MIL 1B/OF
28 A.J. Pollock ARI OF
29 Edwin Encarnacion CLE 1B
30 Yoenis Cespedes NYM OF
31 Jonathan Villar MIL 3B/SS
32 Christian Yelich MIA OF
33 George Springer HOU OF
34 Kyle Seager SEA 3B
35 Matt Kemp ATL OF
36 Mark Trumbo BAL OF
37 Miguel Sano MIN 3B/OF
38 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B/OF
39 J.D. Martinez DET OF
40 Aaron Judge NYY OF
41 Jake Lamb ARI 3B
42 Ian Desmond COL OF
43 Andrew Benintendi BOS OF
44 Matt Carpenter STL 1B/2B/3B
45 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS
46 Ian Kinsler DET 2B
47 Justin Upton DET OF
48 Jay Bruce NYM OF
49 Michael Brantley CLE OF
50 Jose Abreu CWS 1B
51 Trevor Story COL SS
52 Gregory Polanco PIT OF
53 Buster Posey SF C/1B
54 Adam Jones BAL OF
55 Carlos Gonzalez COL OF
56 DJ LeMahieu COL 2B
57 Rougned Odor TEX 2B
58 Cesar Hernandez PHI 2B
59 Michael Conforto NYM OF
60 Marcell Ozuna MIA OF
61 Justin Turner LAD 3B
62 Anthony Rendon WSH 3B
63 Aledmys Diaz STL SS
64 Jean Segura SEA 2B/SS
65 Ryan Zimmerman WAS 1B
66 Kyle Schwarber CHC OF
67 Adam Duvall CIN OF
68 Hanley Ramirez BOS 1B
69 Evan Longoria TB 3B
70 Lorenzo Cain KC OF
71 Albert Pujols LAA 1B
72 Gary Sanchez NYY C
73 Chris Davis BAL 1B
74 Odubel Herrera PHI OF
75 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B
76 Carlos Santana CLE 1B
77 Todd Frazier CWS 1B/3B
78 Mitch Haniger SEA OF
79 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B
80 David Peralta ARI OF
81 Alex Bregman HOU 3B
82 Corey Dickerson TB OF
83 Andrew McCutchen PIT OF
84 Ender Inciarte ATL OF
85 Elvis Andrus TEX SS
86 Chris Owings ARI 2B/SS
87 Jonathan Lucroy TEX C
88 Eric Hosmer KC 1B
89 Jackie Bradley BOS OF
90 Dee Gordon MIA 2B
91 Starlin Castro NYY 2B
92 Billy Hamilton CIN OF
93 David Dahl COL OF
94 Yasmany Tomas ARI OF
95 Jonathan Schoop BAL 2B
96 Brandon Phillips ATL 2B
97 Scott Schebler CIN OF
98 Jason Heyward CHC OF
99 Yonder Alonso OAK 1B
100 Stephen Piscotty STL OF

The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)

Rank Name Pos Team
101 Avisail Garcia CHW OF
102 Jedd Gyorko STL 2B/3B/SS
103 Aaron Hicks NYY OF
104 Troy Tulowitzki TOR SS
105 Maikel Franco PHI 3B

Dropped from the Rankings: Nomar Mazara (89), Jason Kipnis (93), Manuel Margot (97), Kevin Kiermaier (98), Brad Miller (100)

A few notes on the 100:

  • A close second in the highlight was Cody Bellinger. I’m googoo for this dude. Massive ISO, an injured Adrian Gonzalez, enough wheels to flirt with 10 SB, and the defensive flexibility to eventually qualify in OF. Every year there’s a rookie that causes massive waves in the fantasy season, leading many to Championships. Here’s the hot take: for 2017 it’s Bellinger. Not Yoan Moncada, none of the stud pitchers, not Amed Rosario (who I can’t wait for). It’s this one.
  • Chris Owings is another player poised to win a lot of people belts. Similar to his predecessor, Owings may be this year’s version of Jean Segura.
  • Speaking of Segura, I was wrong on him it seems. I thought for sure we’d see unstoppable regression, given his small sample size of dominant hitting, but he’s proving otherwise since coming back from injury. I loved what Taylor Motter brought to the M’s, but man…gonna be hard to get at bats once Mitch Haniger returns if Segura keeps raking.
  • You could have seemingly drafted a team with Sano, Ramirez, Judge, Benintendi and Desmond. Goodness…I want that team. They’re all flying up the board, and I don’t see it slowing down much. I kept a $19 Alex Bregman over a $19 Andrew Benintendi in an AL-Only this year. #smh

As always…don’t agree with something?

DROP THOSE COMMENTS!

Follow [email protected] on Twitter at @matthayes for far more than just fantasy advice.

 

  1. John says:
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    2 Questions
    Drop Dickerson for Conforto?
    Should I try to move Zimmerman, if so what tier pitcher/hitter should I look for?

    • @John: I’d rather have Conforto over Dickerson. That’s a tough drop, though. No one worse?

      If you’re moving Zimmerman make sure you sell him high. Get over-market value and snipe a top 20 P for him. I’d probably take Carlos Martinez or Carrasco for him.

  2. pondfrogsplash says:
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    What to do with Addison Russell? Diaz, Baez, and Cozart are out there on waivers in my 8 team (yeah too shallow) roto league. Would you drop Russell for any of these guys?

    • pondfrogsplash says:
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      @pondfrogsplash: I also have Trea Turner and could play him at SS and pick up an outfielder like Hicks, Alonso, or Altherr. But I already have a stron outfield.

    • @pondfrogsplash: I’d rather have Diaz than Russell. Czar’s probably equal, and Baez could be better than all. In an 8-teamer, though, only Diaz should really be rostered, in my opinion. And even then you’re at the bottom of the SS barrel for that shallow of a league.

  3. fknboz says:
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    I’m looking to sell Duffy for a bat in my 10 team OBP/QS league. I’m hoping to snag someone in your top 40 (or thereabouts), perhaps a JD Martinez-type. Do you think that’s fair value or would you aim higher/lower? Maybe give me a return you’d be super-happy about, and one you’d be fine settling for.

    c Russell Martin
    1b Paul Goldy
    2b Odor
    3b Justin Turner
    SS Xander
    OF Mookie
    OF Trumbo
    OF Conforto
    OF Bellinger
    Util Segura
    Util Odubel
    BN Peraza
    DL Cespedes

    • @fknboz: I’d settle for J.D. Martinez. That may even be selling a little low because of injury. But Duffy’s underperformed so far. I’d feel really good about pairing Duffy with Xander to try for a Machado/Correa/Turner option.

  4. Chris says:
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    Hello [email protected],

    thanks for the update on Toles. I look to add him in my 14 team league.

    Trade question for 12 team league:
    Option A
    Give: Carlos Santana + Duffy
    Get: Donaldson + Wacha

    Option B
    Give: Duffy
    Get: Donaldson

    My team is:
    Realmuto, Edwin, Schoop, Arenado, Russell
    OF: Brantley, Thames, Dickerson, Bradley jr (BN)
    UTL: Carlos Santana
    SP: Darvish, Duffy, Salazar, McCullers, Jaime Garcia, Zach Davies, Eduardo Rodriguez, Daniel Norris, Manaea (DL), Nola (DL)
    RP: Giles, Osuna, Ramos

    Thing of option B (Duffy for Donaldson) is that I then have to trade C. Santana or Edwin since we only have 1 UTL spot.

    I’m trying to get some offense since I already lost Marte, and Eaton.

    thanks!

    • Chris says:
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      @Chris: Another option can be Darvish for Blackmon? thanks!

      • @Chris: Do option B. Trade Duffy. Get Donaldson. That’s fairly easy for me. Too much upside as a bat over Santana.

        And Carlos and Wacha may end up similar, but Carlos seems to have more value, so I wonder if you could steal more elsewhere off his name and draft value.

        I’d also do the Darvish for Blackmon move, but only if you can also find a suitor for JBJ, Brantley or Dickerson. Pair one of them with Santana and get a stud pitching in return. Then you’ll have a lineup of Thames/Blackmon/+1 for the OF, with Arenado at 3B and Donaldson as your UTIL. That’s dy-no-mite. Add in a SP to replace Yu? In a 14-teamer? C’mon.

  5. Chris says:
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    Thanks [email protected]!

    Who should I start Dyson or Pham? Just picked up Pham. h2h roto 5×5 14 team league if it helps.

    Thanks

    • Cram It says:
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      @Chris: Dyson is only good for SB’s, so depending on how that’ll factor in to your matchup…

      • Chris says:
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        Thanks

        • @Chris: Yep, Dyson’s a season long SAGNOF, which can bring a lot of value in roto leagues, but the H2H nature diminishes his value. I’d go with Pham right now if you need a little upside and can find a few steals elsewhere.

          But try to trade Dyson to someone who overvalues steals first. H2H/Roto are two different things. If it’s H2H, he’s more expendable.

  6. Cram It says:
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    Man, I love Mikey’s swing. That is all.

  7. Christian Herman says:
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    Thoughts on Logan Morrison & if he can be a top 15 1st basemen the rest of the way?

    • @Christian Herman: 1st 15 the rest of the way? Eh. That seems ballsy. He could approach it, but year after year we see injuries catch up to him and massive cold snaps kill his hot streaks. He’s a streamer that you drop when he got cold.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Kinsler in front of Odor?! Are you negging me?

    • @Grey: Can we just say they both suck and are trending down? I’ll take Kinsler’s floor over Odor’s ceiling ROS. Both incredibly unlucky, but that walk rate and approach for Rougned are mind-boggling. Gotta see life out of him, where essentially the only drop in Kinsler’s numbers is his BABIP from years past. Hard hit % is even up (as is soft contact%? Haha. My own devil’s advocate)

  9. Eric says:
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    I see trumbo moved up a bit. Do you see him breaking out of his slump?

    • Cram It says:
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      @Eric: Yes he’s not going to slump for a whole season.

      • @Cram It: I’m with Cram It. He’s got a 35 HR floor, but with a better average than a lot of the other power guys around him and below. There’s nothing consistent in his game anywhere to suggest that an .083 ISO is where he’ll end up.

        Unless he’s hurt and we don’t know about it.

  10. filmmeaway says:
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    Is Castillo going to be back soon? Or should I cut him for Molina, Bandy, Leon, Hedges? 12t H2H 6×6 AVG+OBP

    • @filmmeaway: He’s not special enough to hold on the DL instead of grabbing one of the others. C is too deep (weakly deep) to not get the at bats now. Go with the hottest hand at the moment, then reevaluate once Castillo’s ready.

  11. TTRA1N says:
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    I’m kinda glad dude in my league changed his mind on my Benni/Springer for KB. Benni is a legit monster! MookI Betts type.

    • @TTRA1N: He may not have quite the ceiling of Betts, but he’s special. And knows what the off he’s doing. Really high floor for him.

  12. Scott says:
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    Why is bregman on this list? What has he done? Where is the power? He is hitting 8th or 9th. Zero hr. Polanco also seems very high. Do you expect these guys to rebound. I am losing faith. I cant cut these guys yet, but how long do i hold them in a 10 teamer?

    • @Scott: Yeah, patience is wearing thin, but I’m a believer that there’s great pop in Bregman’s bat (we saw in through the minors) and that Polanco will rebound for 5-cat value.

      That being said, if they keep sucking another week or two, don’t be afraid to cut bait. I’d try to trade them to some fool like me that’s high on them though before cutting for nothing, haha.

  13. Hammer says:
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    Would you drop Peraza for Conforto in a dynasty league? Love the position eligibility of Peraza, but dude is not doing much…

  14. H says:
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    Bogarts and Duffy for Kluber. Which side? Thanks!

    • @H: Ugh. Haha, I’d probably stick with Bogaerts, because the ceiling of Duffy isn’t that far under Kluber. With CK now being hurt, the gap between him and Duffy is much closer than Xander homeless Bogaerts.

  15. Christian Herman says:
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    Where is Dexter fowler?

    • @Christian Herman: Nowhere near the Top 100? Take away his 7/13, 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI games on 4/27-4/28 and he’s done essentially nothing. Below the Mendoza line. Plus he’s been hurt.

      I’m really cold on him.

  16. MJ23 says:
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    What does Mark Reynolds have to do to make the Top 100? In Coors, peripherals say current production is sustainable. Should be somewhere around Pujols at least,

    • @MJ23: I was THIS close to putting him in there. He’s been great, and was an honorable mention the past two weeks. But…Coors and his hot hitting aside, I worry about his PT when the Rockies are fully healthy. Once Dahl comes back Reynolds will lose ABs. Now, he could hit his way out of that problem, but he’ll have to sustain this really high rate. And I just don’t fully trust that.

      Awesome option for right now, ROS is where I worry.

  17. Earl says:
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    Seems like Odor is really leaving a bad taste in alot of people’s mouths not to mention teams this year (one of mine included).

    How high of value would people put on Ian Desmond going forward?

    Trying to determine what to make of Senztala and Triggs going forward for future production??

    Thanks

    • @Earl: Go read the little blurb about Odor/Kinsler above with me and Grey. Odor should ABSOLUTELY turn it around, but the patience is way too thin. And I’ve always been worried about his approach.

      I don’t know how high others will put him, but my ranking represents my thoughts on him. Pre-injury at the beginning of March I had him just outside Top 20. I’m a big fan. Once he has a hot week or two everyone’s perception will probably rebound to a similar level.

      Senzatela’s a good pitcher, but he’s going to regress from his sub-3.00 ERA. All his peripherals trend the other way. He also doesn’t have huge K upside, something I always look for in pitchers. Triggs is also outperforming his peripherals, but his K upside seems to be a little higher. I value him over Sensately for this reason.

  18. primetime says:
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    Jackie Bradley? What’s he done this past season to be on this list? Chris Young been out playing him. Jackie is still hurt and he was rushed back, still wearing a brace. I am giving him this week to get things back vs Brewers, if he fails BIG drop.

    I am in a 10 team keeper league and I am holding guys like Polanco and Bradley in hopes for a break out soon. We are heading into middle of May, these guys stink up the joint.

    I missed out on guys.. Gardner and Holiday are better plays, yup I said it. Polanco lineup is awful. Bradley is batting 9th and big snore fest. Ceiling was last year, he’s back in the basement like previous years.

    • @primetime: Still drawing from last season a little and what I think he can do. But yes, you’re right…can be dropped soon if he doesn’t turn it around. I’ve already dropped him a good bit the past few weeks.

      I’m a little different on Polanco, tho. His ceiling’s higher, he’s just gotta actually get there.

  19. FreshMeat says:
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    No Travis Shaw? Average is meh but he seems to fill the stat line regularly and plays in a great park with a potent lineup. What’re you seeing you don’t like?

    • @FreshMeat: Everything checks out nice, I just don’t believe it’s sustainable. The power jump isn’t consistent with what he’s done before, and his 28% HR/FB ratio will definitely regress. It’s actually a little mind-boggling. 50.5% GB rate and only a 27.5% FB percentage. That’s crazy to have the numbers he does. It’s a change in approach from previous years, but a change in the wrong direction. It’s similar to his 2015 sample size, but I think last year showed he can’t keep it up.

      And that sounds like a personal problem.

  20. TTRA1N says:
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    If they would just leave Chris Owings in the 2 hole he would fly up this list.

    • @TTRA1N: Haha, likely. He’d still have to prove his sustainability, but I’m quickly becoming a fan.

  21. Mike says:
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    Would you deal Altuve to get Cutch/Schwarber/Cueto?

  22. The Harrow says:
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    glad to see that you understand how to and use the green/red/blue for movement. one of the previous guys either didn’t know how to or just willfully didn’t.

    • @The Harrow: Haha, wait…is that other previous guy just me from last year? I don’t know if this is sarcastic or for real, haha.

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