HOT TAKE! Haha, everyone can get all giddy about the renaissance happening in Washington, but I’ll take my attention a little further north in the NL East. Sure, a certain Zimmerman is on pace for like 75 HR and 180 RBI, but I’m not interested in the past. Give me the future. You can take your old balls and five year plan, I’ll take the upside of a incredible prospect we’ve been waiting on for two years.
Listen, everything’s lining up for this. Curtis Granderson? He forgot how to hit. The Mets pitching staff? Essentially dead. Haha, they have Jose Reyes playing 3B. For the Mets, the future is now (watch out for Amed Rosario to get the call soon), and a primary cog for them in that movement is Michael Conforto. Finally.
If you lookout the current stats and slap line, Zimmerman’s the choice, but in projecting out the future, I’d take the younger option. Even ZiPS agrees with a 21 HR to 16 HR ROS projection in favor of Michael. (Keep reading…I’m a fan of Zimmerman, too.)
- Michael Conforto, OF, NYM (75.9% owned) – With a current line of .325/17/7/20/1 Conforto’s bringing great value since taking over an everyday role. All those numbers are in only 96 PA. Looking deeper the peripheral stats seem to be sustainable, as well, whereas guys like Zimmerman have a massively inflated BABIP and ISO. And by massively inflated I mean it’s almost double anything consistent with their careers. Conforto, though, sports a .345 BABIP and a .300 ISO. Those may drop slightly, but even if they go down to the ZiPS numbers (in 450 PA) of a .224 ISO with a .292 BABIP it gives him a season ending slash of (~).285/81/28/88/3. That’s sustainable. And greater than Zimmerman. They’re both rising, but I’ll take the young buck. And if you’re in one of the 25% of ESPN leagues where he’s not owned…change that. Fast.
ROS projections are tough. Take the savvy veteran with a lower ceiling but higher floor? Go for the risk of the young’n without the history to prove he can do it further? Find what works for your team and go for it! Here’s the Top 100 Hitters…based on my thoughts! My. Subjective. Thoughts.
They just happen to be right a lot. Ha!
Note: These rankings are considered ROS Trade Value
[email protected]’s Top Hitters
(Rankings based on 12-team Roto. GREEN = player rising. RED = player dropping. BLUE = new to the 100.)
The Honorable Mentions (Next Five In…)
Rank | Name | Pos | Team |
101 | Avisail Garcia | CHW | OF |
102 | Jedd Gyorko | STL | 2B/3B/SS |
103 | Aaron Hicks | NYY | OF |
104 | Troy Tulowitzki | TOR | SS |
105 | Maikel Franco | PHI | 3B |
Dropped from the Rankings: Nomar Mazara (89), Jason Kipnis (93), Manuel Margot (97), Kevin Kiermaier (98), Brad Miller (100)
A few notes on the 100:
- A close second in the highlight was Cody Bellinger. I’m googoo for this dude. Massive ISO, an injured Adrian Gonzalez, enough wheels to flirt with 10 SB, and the defensive flexibility to eventually qualify in OF. Every year there’s a rookie that causes massive waves in the fantasy season, leading many to Championships. Here’s the hot take: for 2017 it’s Bellinger. Not Yoan Moncada, none of the stud pitchers, not Amed Rosario (who I can’t wait for). It’s this one.
- Chris Owings is another player poised to win a lot of people belts. Similar to his predecessor, Owings may be this year’s version of Jean Segura.
- Speaking of Segura, I was wrong on him it seems. I thought for sure we’d see unstoppable regression, given his small sample size of dominant hitting, but he’s proving otherwise since coming back from injury. I loved what Taylor Motter brought to the M’s, but man…gonna be hard to get at bats once Mitch Haniger returns if Segura keeps raking.
- You could have seemingly drafted a team with Sano, Ramirez, Judge, Benintendi and Desmond. Goodness…I want that team. They’re all flying up the board, and I don’t see it slowing down much. I kept a $19 Alex Bregman over a $19 Andrew Benintendi in an AL-Only this year. #smh
As always…don’t agree with something?
DROP THOSE COMMENTS!
Follow [email protected] on Twitter at @matthayes for far more than just fantasy advice.
glad to see that you understand how to and use the green/red/blue for movement. one of the previous guys either didn’t know how to or just willfully didn’t.
@The Harrow: Haha, wait…is that other previous guy just me from last year? I don’t know if this is sarcastic or for real, haha.
Would you deal Altuve to get Cutch/Schwarber/Cueto?
@Mike: Nope.
If they would just leave Chris Owings in the 2 hole he would fly up this list.
@TTRA1N: Haha, likely. He’d still have to prove his sustainability, but I’m quickly becoming a fan.
No Travis Shaw? Average is meh but he seems to fill the stat line regularly and plays in a great park with a potent lineup. What’re you seeing you don’t like?
@FreshMeat: Everything checks out nice, I just don’t believe it’s sustainable. The power jump isn’t consistent with what he’s done before, and his 28% HR/FB ratio will definitely regress. It’s actually a little mind-boggling. 50.5% GB rate and only a 27.5% FB percentage. That’s crazy to have the numbers he does. It’s a change in approach from previous years, but a change in the wrong direction. It’s similar to his 2015 sample size, but I think last year showed he can’t keep it up.
And that sounds like a personal problem.
Jackie Bradley? What’s he done this past season to be on this list? Chris Young been out playing him. Jackie is still hurt and he was rushed back, still wearing a brace. I am giving him this week to get things back vs Brewers, if he fails BIG drop.
I am in a 10 team keeper league and I am holding guys like Polanco and Bradley in hopes for a break out soon. We are heading into middle of May, these guys stink up the joint.
I missed out on guys.. Gardner and Holiday are better plays, yup I said it. Polanco lineup is awful. Bradley is batting 9th and big snore fest. Ceiling was last year, he’s back in the basement like previous years.
@primetime: Still drawing from last season a little and what I think he can do. But yes, you’re right…can be dropped soon if he doesn’t turn it around. I’ve already dropped him a good bit the past few weeks.
I’m a little different on Polanco, tho. His ceiling’s higher, he’s just gotta actually get there.
Seems like Odor is really leaving a bad taste in alot of people’s mouths not to mention teams this year (one of mine included).
How high of value would people put on Ian Desmond going forward?
Trying to determine what to make of Senztala and Triggs going forward for future production??
Thanks
@Earl: Go read the little blurb about Odor/Kinsler above with me and Grey. Odor should ABSOLUTELY turn it around, but the patience is way too thin. And I’ve always been worried about his approach.
I don’t know how high others will put him, but my ranking represents my thoughts on him. Pre-injury at the beginning of March I had him just outside Top 20. I’m a big fan. Once he has a hot week or two everyone’s perception will probably rebound to a similar level.
Senzatela’s a good pitcher, but he’s going to regress from his sub-3.00 ERA. All his peripherals trend the other way. He also doesn’t have huge K upside, something I always look for in pitchers. Triggs is also outperforming his peripherals, but his K upside seems to be a little higher. I value him over Sensately for this reason.
What does Mark Reynolds have to do to make the Top 100? In Coors, peripherals say current production is sustainable. Should be somewhere around Pujols at least,
@MJ23: I was THIS close to putting him in there. He’s been great, and was an honorable mention the past two weeks. But…Coors and his hot hitting aside, I worry about his PT when the Rockies are fully healthy. Once Dahl comes back Reynolds will lose ABs. Now, he could hit his way out of that problem, but he’ll have to sustain this really high rate. And I just don’t fully trust that.
Awesome option for right now, ROS is where I worry.
Where is Dexter fowler?
@Christian Herman: Nowhere near the Top 100? Take away his 7/13, 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI games on 4/27-4/28 and he’s done essentially nothing. Below the Mendoza line. Plus he’s been hurt.
I’m really cold on him.
Bogarts and Duffy for Kluber. Which side? Thanks!
@H: Ugh. Haha, I’d probably stick with Bogaerts, because the ceiling of Duffy isn’t that far under Kluber. With CK now being hurt, the gap between him and Duffy is much closer than Xander homeless Bogaerts.
Would you drop Peraza for Conforto in a dynasty league? Love the position eligibility of Peraza, but dude is not doing much…
@Hammer: Yes
@Cram It: Absolutely. Even before the season I’d still prefer Conforto to him. Do it quickly.
@[email protected]: Trigger Pulled – thanks [email protected]
Why is bregman on this list? What has he done? Where is the power? He is hitting 8th or 9th. Zero hr. Polanco also seems very high. Do you expect these guys to rebound. I am losing faith. I cant cut these guys yet, but how long do i hold them in a 10 teamer?
@Scott: Yeah, patience is wearing thin, but I’m a believer that there’s great pop in Bregman’s bat (we saw in through the minors) and that Polanco will rebound for 5-cat value.
That being said, if they keep sucking another week or two, don’t be afraid to cut bait. I’d try to trade them to some fool like me that’s high on them though before cutting for nothing, haha.
I’m kinda glad dude in my league changed his mind on my Benni/Springer for KB. Benni is a legit monster! MookI Betts type.
@TTRA1N: He may not have quite the ceiling of Betts, but he’s special. And knows what the off he’s doing. Really high floor for him.
Is Castillo going to be back soon? Or should I cut him for Molina, Bandy, Leon, Hedges? 12t H2H 6×6 AVG+OBP
@filmmeaway: He’s not special enough to hold on the DL instead of grabbing one of the others. C is too deep (weakly deep) to not get the at bats now. Go with the hottest hand at the moment, then reevaluate once Castillo’s ready.
I see trumbo moved up a bit. Do you see him breaking out of his slump?
@Eric: Yes he’s not going to slump for a whole season.
@Cram It: I’m with Cram It. He’s got a 35 HR floor, but with a better average than a lot of the other power guys around him and below. There’s nothing consistent in his game anywhere to suggest that an .083 ISO is where he’ll end up.
Unless he’s hurt and we don’t know about it.
Kinsler in front of Odor?! Are you negging me?
@Grey: Can we just say they both suck and are trending down? I’ll take Kinsler’s floor over Odor’s ceiling ROS. Both incredibly unlucky, but that walk rate and approach for Rougned are mind-boggling. Gotta see life out of him, where essentially the only drop in Kinsler’s numbers is his BABIP from years past. Hard hit % is even up (as is soft contact%? Haha. My own devil’s advocate)
Thoughts on Logan Morrison & if he can be a top 15 1st basemen the rest of the way?
@Christian Herman: 1st 15 the rest of the way? Eh. That seems ballsy. He could approach it, but year after year we see injuries catch up to him and massive cold snaps kill his hot streaks. He’s a streamer that you drop when he got cold.
Man, I love Mikey’s swing. That is all.
@Cram It: And that’s all that’s needed. So pure.
Thanks [email protected]!
Who should I start Dyson or Pham? Just picked up Pham. h2h roto 5×5 14 team league if it helps.
Thanks
@Chris: Dyson is only good for SB’s, so depending on how that’ll factor in to your matchup…
Thanks
@Chris: Yep, Dyson’s a season long SAGNOF, which can bring a lot of value in roto leagues, but the H2H nature diminishes his value. I’d go with Pham right now if you need a little upside and can find a few steals elsewhere.
But try to trade Dyson to someone who overvalues steals first. H2H/Roto are two different things. If it’s H2H, he’s more expendable.
Hello [email protected],
thanks for the update on Toles. I look to add him in my 14 team league.
Trade question for 12 team league:
Option A
Give: Carlos Santana + Duffy
Get: Donaldson + Wacha
Option B
Give: Duffy
Get: Donaldson
My team is:
Realmuto, Edwin, Schoop, Arenado, Russell
OF: Brantley, Thames, Dickerson, Bradley jr (BN)
UTL: Carlos Santana
SP: Darvish, Duffy, Salazar, McCullers, Jaime Garcia, Zach Davies, Eduardo Rodriguez, Daniel Norris, Manaea (DL), Nola (DL)
RP: Giles, Osuna, Ramos
Thing of option B (Duffy for Donaldson) is that I then have to trade C. Santana or Edwin since we only have 1 UTL spot.
I’m trying to get some offense since I already lost Marte, and Eaton.
thanks!
@Chris: Another option can be Darvish for Blackmon? thanks!
@Chris: Do option B. Trade Duffy. Get Donaldson. That’s fairly easy for me. Too much upside as a bat over Santana.
And Carlos and Wacha may end up similar, but Carlos seems to have more value, so I wonder if you could steal more elsewhere off his name and draft value.
I’d also do the Darvish for Blackmon move, but only if you can also find a suitor for JBJ, Brantley or Dickerson. Pair one of them with Santana and get a stud pitching in return. Then you’ll have a lineup of Thames/Blackmon/+1 for the OF, with Arenado at 3B and Donaldson as your UTIL. That’s dy-no-mite. Add in a SP to replace Yu? In a 14-teamer? C’mon.
I’m looking to sell Duffy for a bat in my 10 team OBP/QS league. I’m hoping to snag someone in your top 40 (or thereabouts), perhaps a JD Martinez-type. Do you think that’s fair value or would you aim higher/lower? Maybe give me a return you’d be super-happy about, and one you’d be fine settling for.
c Russell Martin
1b Paul Goldy
2b Odor
3b Justin Turner
SS Xander
OF Mookie
OF Trumbo
OF Conforto
OF Bellinger
Util Segura
Util Odubel
BN Peraza
DL Cespedes
@fknboz: I’d settle for J.D. Martinez. That may even be selling a little low because of injury. But Duffy’s underperformed so far. I’d feel really good about pairing Duffy with Xander to try for a Machado/Correa/Turner option.
@fknboz: Settle for [email protected][email protected]: Settle for JD?! No way Duffy nets you that.
What to do with Addison Russell? Diaz, Baez, and Cozart are out there on waivers in my 8 team (yeah too shallow) roto league. Would you drop Russell for any of these guys?
@pondfrogsplash: I also have Trea Turner and could play him at SS and pick up an outfielder like Hicks, Alonso, or Altherr. But I already have a stron outfield.
@pondfrogsplash: I’d rather have Diaz than Russell. Czar’s probably equal, and Baez could be better than all. In an 8-teamer, though, only Diaz should really be rostered, in my opinion. And even then you’re at the bottom of the SS barrel for that shallow of a league.
@[email protected]: And all of those OF options are still meh for an 8-team league. But Turner at your SS is the most value for him.
@[email protected]: Thanks!
2 Questions
Drop Dickerson for Conforto?
Should I try to move Zimmerman, if so what tier pitcher/hitter should I look for?
@John: I’d rather have Conforto over Dickerson. That’s a tough drop, though. No one worse?
If you’re moving Zimmerman make sure you sell him high. Get over-market value and snipe a top 20 P for him. I’d probably take Carlos Martinez or Carrasco for him.