Lucky week number seven is all wrapped up in the world of fantasy baseball. Have you gotten lucky yet? Nah, who am I kidding? We’re fantasy baseballers, we don’t get lucky. Unless mom brings down a plate of hot pockets that is! No matter how great we think we are at this silly little game though, there is obviously an element of luck involved. Now, I’m a big proponent of the mantra, “Make your own luck” and I certainly think that can be applied to fantasy baseball. “Win luck” is a term often tossed around to describe a team that is raking in the wins and/or a team that can’t seem to buy a win (most of my teams this year it seems). Can you make your own luck in regards to wins? Of course you can. You can stream those valuable middle relievers, especially the ones that frequently work multiple innings in the middle of games. When a lead change occurs, these relievers are typically the benefactors. It’s no guarantee of course, but it can’t hurt your luck any. There are other ways to increase your win luck too. Let’s take a look at another big one as well as who is getting lucky and who got luck this week in the week that was, week 7:
Another nice way to increase your win luck is to borrow a tip from the DFS side of the fantasy baseball landscape and utilize the Vegas odds. I know not everyone dabbles in DFS waters, but Vegas is a good companion there and in your season long leagues. Here’s how to use it. First, find yourself a website that lists all the Vegas consensus odds for the day. There are several out there, but I typically run with THIS ONE. If you aren’t familiar with Vegas terminology, you want to look at the “Money Line” which is the number greater than 100 with either a “+” or a “-” in front of it. This shows you how much you would have to bet on a team to win $100 (in the case of the negative amount) or how much you would win if you bet $100 on a team (in the case of the positive amount). The negative value indicates the favorite. So, if a team is a -140 favorite, you would need to bet $140 on them to win $100. If a team is +140, if you bet $100 on them, you would win $140. Clayton Kershaw pitched yesterday against the Reds and was a -380 favorite. That’s enormous. You’d have bet almost $400 just to win $100. But, what are the odds the Dodgers lose that game? You can start to see where this might come in handy. Anything over about -140 is pretty good. Take a look at those odds, check to make sure the over/under (run total) for the game isn’t too huge, use some common sense, or at least some risk/reward management, and stream away. Using yesterday as an example again, Wei-Yin Chen vs. the Rays was a -127 favorite in a game with 7.5 over/under. If he were available in my league and I was looking for a win, that’s the first streamer I’d go looking for. Chasing wins may seem to some like a fool’s errand, but you can take a couple steps to make your own luck here.
Here are the best (“luckiest”) and worst (“unluckiest”) teams in the RCL universe in terms of win % (Wins/GS * 100):
Lucky:
| # | Team | League | W | GS | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Team Levy | All Hail Beddict Tha God | 24 | 21 | 114.29 |
| 799 | Shop Smart Shop S Marte | Take on the Jaywrong 5 | 20 | 18 | 111.11 |
| 121 | Elkhorn Kingpins | Take on the JayWrong 1 | 30 | 28 | 107.14 |
| 342 | Prospector Ralph | Prospecter Ralph`s Cavern | 25 | 25 | 100 |
| 517 | Team Dalmore | Brave Frontier | 25 | 25 | 100 |
| 11 | The People’s Champ | The Heat Is On | 28 | 31 | 90.32 |
| 889 | Shop Smart Shop S Marte | Hey Ladies! Get Funky | 17 | 19 | 89.47 |
| 164 | Bag Boy | Myers Superfoods | 25 | 28 | 89.29 |
| 302 | Johnny Utahs | FCL | 16 | 18 | 88.89 |
| 411 | Exiled to the End Draft Slot | The Balking Dead | 22 | 25 | 88 |
Unlucky:
| # | Team | League | W | GS | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 319 | Team BOBBY | Saskatchewan | 11 | 57 | 19.3 |
| 1013 | Taiwan Maddog | DeadPool | 12 | 51 | 23.53 |
| 1004 | DR Reality Smasher | Robust Herd | 17 | 69 | 24.64 |
| 731 | Long Balls | Take on the JayWrong #4 | 20 | 80 | 25 |
| 1008 | Indiana Brixbays | Enemies of Beddict | 17 | 67 | 25.37 |
| 922 | Morning Star | Enemies of Beddict | 15 | 56 | 26.79 |
| 965 | Girl Number Four | Nico Sux Dico | 18 | 65 | 27.69 |
| 853 | Seward BoomStick | Smoke Show | 22 | 79 | 27.85 |
| 874 | Grey’s Fuckhole | Razzball `Perty `Perts | 19 | 68 | 27.94 |
| 1006 | Team Chang | Stream or die! | 17 | 60 | 28.33 |
I had to institute some sort of a GS limit here. I mentioned Johnny Utahs last week and his many teams with hardly any GS. Those teams really skew the numbers. When a team has 8 GA and 13 Wins, it doesn’t really tell us much. So, my very fair limit was 2 starts per week, 14 GS. You can see several teams biding their time and racking up middle relief wins that have more wins than games started. Prospector Ralph is in that mix with a perfect 25 for 25. All of these teams have fairly low GS numbers, which makes sense. The most impressive of the group is further down than the top 10 though. Our 10th overall team in the Master Standings, the Yapping Chihuahuas has 52 GS and 44 Wins, good for a 84.6% win rate! The lowest of the lows all have fairly high GS numbers comparatively but the Chihuahuas are really showing them up. Look at poor Team BOBBY who has 5 more GS than the Chihuahuas but has 33 less wins. Sad trombone for BOBBY. I mentioned them a few weeks ago in regards to win %, the team with the most GS in all RCLs is the Hoboken Squat Cobblers. Their 135 games started compared to only 51 wins is good for a 37.78 win %. That’s pretty darn unlucky. How’s your win luck been this year? Care to vent in the comments? I’ll be your shoulder to cry on. Feel free to share your tips on chasing wins or if you think it’s a total crapshoot as well.
Each week we’ll peek in at our resident ‘perts & other industry names to see who is laying claim to best “expert” RCLer in the land. We’ll take notes, check the standings and generally stalk them. Click the heading above to check out the ‘Perts League home page and follow along.
Grey began his slow climb out of whatever sink hole he fell in last week by adding 3.5 points and moving from 8th to 6th. Grey still sits 14 points out of third place, where his trade nemesis, Prospector Ralph is swinging his pickaxe. That’s what prospectors use, right? Ralph was this week’s biggest point gainer in the ‘Perts League. He managed 10 points and leap-frogged Rudy (who gained 5.5 points of his own) by 2 points and now sits just 1.5 points behind Team McLeod for 2nd. Nice week Ralph! Team Gianella made the biggest move in the standings this week, from 10th to 7th on the back of 6 points gained. In other yawnstipating news, Big Magoo added 1 point this week and still sits in first by 11 points. JB and Triple-D battled it out for this week’s biggest loser. In the end, Y!’s Dalton Del Don was the “winner”, losing 9 points and falling from 6th to 8th. JB, after losing 8 points last week has now lost 15.5 points in two weeks and has fallen from 2nd to 5th in that span. Ouch.
TOP 10
For those too lazy to check the MASTER STANDINGS, I present to you, the current top 10
| RK | TEAM | LEAGUE | RCL PTS | LG PTS | LG INDEX | MASTER PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fatuous Jeffreys | Cougs R Us | 107.2 | 106 | 102 | 104.8 |
| 2 | Simply Fred | ECFBL | 105.2 | 101.5 | 104 | 102.7 |
| 3 | Guy Montag | Be About Yo` Paper | 105.1 | 102 | 102 | 105 |
| 4 | Samuel Colt Debate Team | DFSers Anonymous | 104.8 | 104.5 | 103 | 101.2 |
| 5 | You had to make it weird | Nico Sux Dico | 101.7 | 104.5 | 101 | 98 |
| 6 | Rock Ridge Express | Riverboat Fantasy | 101.6 | 101 | 102 | 99.4 |
| 7 | Straight Outta Omaha | All Summer Long | 101.6 | 101 | 102 | 99.6 |
| 8 | Monsters of Butt Rock | Fountains of Ralph | 101.4 | 100 | 102 | 100.3 |
| 9 | S’All Goooood, Man | Razzballero1 | 101 | 100.5 | 102 | 99.3 |
| 10 | Yapping Chihuahuas | Effectively Hide my Thunder | 99.6 | 101.5 | 101 | 96.9 |
There was a delay in the standings update last week, apologies for not having included this section, but this week we’re back to normal. Simply Fred got back on top last week, but slipped this week to #2 as Fatuous Jeffreys continued their steady climb up the rankings (14th two weeks ago, 9th last week) and into the #1 overall spot. They have 106 league points in a fairly competitive Cougs R Us. Comparing Fred and Jeffreys side by side, the two teams are fairly evenly matched. It’s nice that both teams have 56 GS, so it’s easy to compare their pitching stats to each other. This should be a fun battle into next week. Guy Montag bumps down to third overall with the Jeffreys’ jump into first place. Frequent commenter, and everyone’s favorite bamboo eater, MauledByPandas, is mauling me, and the rest of DFSers Anonymous. He’s been lingering right around the 10th spot the past few weeks, but made a charge this week to 4th overall. Wait a second here, I’m in two money RCLs and one contains Fred (#2) and the other has Pandas (#4)…got it. Indeed, someone did have to make it weird. Oh Nico. You had to make it weird debuts in the top 10 with the 5th overall spot this week. Right behind him is the Rock Ridge Express who debuts at #6, nice jump fellas! The Monsters of Butt Rock were knocking at the door to the top 10 last week at 11th overall, but finally slip in there this week, debuting at #8 overall. Straight Outta Omaha remains in the top 10 for another week as do the Yapping Chihuahuas. S’All Goooood, Man took a one week hiatus from the top 10, but is right back in there this week.
TRADES
All the trades that have gone down in the past week. Public ridicule is not only allowed, but encouraged.
| DATE | LEAGUE | TRADE |
|---|---|---|
| 5/18/2016 | ECFBL | Evil Evies traded Felix Hernandez and Nomar Mazara to Pete Browning’s Bats for David Price (Pete Browning’s Bats dropped Javier Baez) |
| 5/18/2016 | Fountains of Ralph | Big Ol’ Mr. Knish traded Jon Lester to King’s Court for Freddie Freeman |
| 5/18/2016 | RCL Razz | Cosby’s Cuddlers traded Jake Arrieta to Team Redtree for Paul Goldschmidt |
| 5/19/2016 | Brave Frontier | Concord Minutemen traded Arodys Vizcaino to Hoboken Squat Cobblers for Kenta Maeda |
| 5/19/2016 | Oscar’s Gambling on this League | Marte Par-Tay traded Johnny Cueto and Steve Cishek to Screamin Yetis for Andrew McCutchen and Andrew Miller |
| 5/19/2016 | Summer of 69 | Rube Waddells Shiny Objects traded Starling Marte to Vin Rocks for Yoenis Cespedes |
| 5/20/2016 | Grey haired sack o balls | All Autopick All The Time traded Roberto Osuna to Frankfurt Amazinz for Dallas Keuchel |
| 5/20/2016 | High Heat | Butte Invaders traded Khris Davis to If You Can’t Stand The Heat for Gerardo Parra |
| 5/21/2016 | Gettin Frisky | Hiroshima Carp traded Miguel Sano to Springfield Isotopes for Kevin Gausman and Matt Holliday (Hiroshima Carp dropped Jimmy Nelson) |
| 5/22/2016 | ECFBL | Team AL KOHLIC traded Carlos Gomez*, Carlos Santana, Luke Gregerson, Sam Dyson and Sean Doolittle to ThrowTheHeat Meat for Bryce Harper |
| 5/22/2016 | ECFBL | Creative Chaos traded Yoenis Cespedes to Team AL KOHLIC for Francisco Rodriguez and Randal Grichuk |
| 5/22/2016 | ECFBL | Creative Chaos traded Johnny Cueto to El Macho Borracho for Brett Gardner |
It was a busy week of trading in the ECFBL this week with four deals getting done. The biggest of the bunch is what kind of seems like a “chump dump” of Carlos Gomez, Carlos Santana, Sean Doolittle, Luke Gregerson, and Sam Dyson for Bryce Harper. That’s a lot to give up, but give me Bryce Harper there every, single day. People do crazy things for saves though, especially in a league like this where any and all save options are owned.
Speaking of questionable moves for trade, the other questionable deal from ECFBL this week was Yoenis Cespedes for Francisco Rodriguez and Randal Grichuk. Creative Chaos is either really desperate for saves (not as desperate as I am in that league!) and/or is a really, really big fan of Grichuk. Grichuk doesn’t do a whole lot for me personally and I’m a pretty big fan of Cespedes, so this one doesn’t really compute.
I like the deal Marte Par-Tay pulled off this week, sending Cueto and Cishek, who could lose his job any moment, away for McCutchen and Andrew Miller. Even with the lack of saves I’d rather own Miller than Cishek in an RCL and Cueto for McCutchen is a no-doubter.
Dallas Keuchel has been on the move an awful lot recently. In some leagues he’s just being dropped, in others, people are actually trading him for top tier closers. That’s amazing.
VinWins and I made a deal this week. I needed HRs, in which Vin was second and he needed SBs, in which I was second. It was a match made in heaven, Cespedes for Marte, win-win…we hope.
WEEKLY LEADERS
The best of the best from the week that was.
R – 62 – Tenth Man Out (Hey Ladies! Get Funky)
HR –22 – Team Hughes (Talkin’ Baseball), Vegan Pizza Party (That’ll do Puig), Big Magoo (not that one) (The Second Greatest)
RBIs – 61 – Fowler? I Barely Know Her (BATTAMANIA)
AVG – .336 – Wellington Phoenix (Center Field)
SB – 13 – Al Melchior Banged my Wife (Play With FOH), Team Riner (Riverboat Fantasy)
W – 13 – Calgary Cannons (Razzballero1)
K – 123 – Calgary Cannons (Razzballero1)
SV – 13 – Rudy is Booty (Baba Booey)
ERA (Min. 40 IP) – 0.66 – The Clap (RCL Razz) (in 41 IP)
WHIP (Min. 40 IP) – 0.58 – Exiled to the End Draft Slot (The Balking Dead) (in 44.2 IP)
A new weekly high was set this week in wins. Calgary Cannons had themselves quite a week of pitching. The ERA wasn’t wonderful, 4.49 (thanks Jose Berrios and Jon Gray!) but the wins were plentiful as were the Ks. The Cannons went streaming crazy, logging 154.1 IP and adding 25 Games Started jumping from 41 to 66.
A new low in WHIP was recorded this week as well with Exiled to the End Draft Slot logging 44.2 IP and a tidy 0.58 WHIP. We all have ratio envy.
TEAM OF THE WEEK
Our weekly shout out to the team that killed it the previous week.
Team: Backdoor Sliders 1
League: FCL
Stats: H/AB: 97/339, AVG: .286, R: 59, HR: 14, RBI: 49, SB: 7
IP: 83.2, ERA: 2.69, WHIP: 1.14, K: 96, W: 5, SV: 3
Summary: It was a very close race this week between Backdoor Sliders and Rudy is Booty. Rudy is Booty’s great week was mostly held up by their pitching and even more so, the 13 saves they accrued. In the end, I tend to lean towards offense and it’s not like the Sliders had a bad pitching week either. I played with Backdoor Sliders in last year’s champions league and I can say, he’s uber active and uses all the RCL tricks in the book to maximize ABs, innings pitched and games started. A quick sort by ABs in the Master Standings shows Backdoor Sliders with 2 teams in the top 11. Sort by moves and you’ll see 2 in the top 10. That doesn’t always guarantee success, but it doesn’t hurt. Nice week Sliders, keep up the good work.
