For the 2026 fantasy baseball season, every team has about 120 games down and about 40 games still to go after the first 21 weeks of the season. Since even 120 games aren’t nearly enough to draw any conclusions, we will spend these posts in the middle of the season looking at the risers and fallers in fantasy baseball from an under-the-hood stats perspective.
Even over a long Spring Training and 21 weeks of meaningful games, this amount of production is not actually a lot of information to use when evaluating players for the rest of the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, lineup placement, platoon splits, and other factors when trying to determine what to do with tough player choices.
This piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall over the last couple of weeks. This will hopefully give us an idea of what to do with these players moving forward.
(Stats are up to date through August 18th)
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Jac Caglianone (1B/OF), Kansas City Royals
Jac Caglianone has gone from one of fantasy baseball’s biggest disappointments to one of the hottest power hitters in the league. After hitting just .222/.237/.378 in July, Caglianone has completely turned things around in August, posting a .429/.446/.746 slash line and a 228 wRC+ before Wednesday. That 228 wRC+ has been one of the best in all of baseball, and his power has been particularly impressive. He has already reached 22 home runs on the season, including eight over his last 30 games, while driving in 20 runs in August.
The turnaround is especially encouraging because Caglianone’s underlying skill set has always suggested considerably more offensive upside than his early-season results showed. His .278/.329/.494 line for the season is a massive improvement over his disastrous .157/.237/.295 rookie line from 2025, and his .246 ISO this season is displaying the real power that made him such a highly regarded prospect (sixth overall pick in 2024). After struggling badly in July, Caglianone has begun turning that into power into actual production again, making him one of the top fantasy risers heading into the final weeks of the season.
Gavin Williams (SP), Cleveland Guardians
Thought of as a sleeper heading into 2026, it took a while for Gavin Williams to live up to that moniker. Williams has been one of the biggest pitching risers over the last month, and the strikeout numbers are elite. Over a recent 30-day stretch, Williams posted a 2.48 ERA across 32.2 innings while striking out 55 batters and walking just three. That gives us a 15.15 K/9 and a 47.0% strikeout rate, while his 18.33 K/BB ratio shows just how dominant his combination of strikeouts and control has been.
The improvement has been particularly important because Williams’ season-long numbers are already strong, with a 3.74 ERA, 31.8% strikeout rate, and 7.5% walk rate according to FanGraphs. His recent stretch suggests that the strikeout upside is legit. Williams struck out at least 10 batters in four of his five starts during that 30-day stretch, including 11 against Minnesota on July 23 and 12 against Cincinnati on July 28. With a fantastic arsenal that has generated a ton of swings and misses, Williams has quickly moved from a promising pitcher to someone fantasy managers should be treating as a legitimate star down the stretch.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Vladimir Guerrero. Jr. (1B), Toronto Blue Jays
Alright, it’s almost September, so it’s officially time to take down the big names. These are lost seasons we are about to talk about. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might be the worst “faller” hitter because the name value and draft cost remained enormous while the fantasy production has been anything but. Over a recent 30-day stretch, Guerrero hit just .250 with a .313 OBP and .342 SLG, producing only one home run and seven RBI over 20 games. For a player with multiple seasons over 30 home runs, this can only be described as horrific.
The larger concern is that this isn’t simply a small statistical dip. Guerrero entered the season with projections over 30home runs, but his actual 2026 numbers have been considerably worse: a .263 average, seven homers, and a .356 slugging percentage at the time he landed on the injured list a few days ago. His .356 season slugging percentage is almost 20o points lower than it was in 2024. Any brief surge from Guerrero has been surrounded by too many quiet stretches, and he still does not have a home-stadium home run in over a year. His recent head injury, which landed him on the seven-day IL, only adds another reason for fantasy managers to get rid of him for the stretch run.
Paul Skenes (SP), Pittsburgh Pirates
OK, Wednesday’s performance has to be the last straw for me. Why do I keep rolling Paul Skenes out in my lineup every fifth day when he is putting up box scores as he did against the Tigers (4.1 innings, four hits, four walks, three earned runs)? That’s been par for the course lately, and we need to figure out why. Prior year track record doesn’t cut it at this point in the season.
Skenes’ fastball velocity has fallen, with his average fastball sitting around 96.9 mph compared with nearly 100 mph at times last season (and was over 98 all season). That decline has led to a 5.79 ERA over his last nine starts before Wednesday’s stinker, failing to reach 97 mph with his fastball. The Pirates have said there is no injury issue to worry about, but the combination of diminished velocity, workload concerns, and opposing hitters having success against him has led to a fantasy ace delivering something equivalent to what you expect from an SP3 or SP4.
Based on draft slot and current value, Skenes just hasn’t paid off this season. He was one of the safest-looking picks in fantasy baseball entering 2026, routinely going in the first ten picks of many drafts. However, the reigning NL Cy Young winner has been a major disappointment, posting a 3.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with a 9-11 record through 25 starts before Wednesday. His 30.0% strikeout rate remains excellent, but it is a noticeable step down from the dominance fantasy managers expected, particularly when compared with the 1.97 ERA in 2025.
