When picking what teams to write about, the Reds were one of the teams that really intrigued me. I really feel like this is going to be a sneaky team in the NL and they could be a team to watch out for late in the season. Developing their pitching staff and adding some hitters in the offseason has made this a really dangerous squad and there’s a lot for Cincinnati fans to get excited about. With that in mind, let’s take a look at their 2019 stats!

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2019 Reds Recap: 

Record: 75-87

Runs Scored: 701 (25th) 

Runs Allowed: 711 (7th) 

Stolen Bases: 80 (12th) 

ERA: 4.18 (8th) 

WHIP: 1.26 (6th) 

Saves: 46 (7th) 

Strikeouts: 1,552 (4th) 

2020 Win Total Projection: 83.5 Wins

 

Strengths

Pitching

The Reds have a really impressive pitching staff. If Trevor Bauer can return to the form that made him a Cy Young contender in 2018, this could be one of the best 1-2-3 starters in the NL. Anthony DeSclafani and Wade Miley aren’t too shabby themselves at the four and five spots and it doesn’t even take into consideration talented relievers like Rasiel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen and Amir Garrett.

Weaknesses

Speed

There’s really not a whole lot of weaknesses when you look at this deep pitching staff and talented lineup. The only concerning aspect of the Reds is the fact that they don’t have a single guy in their lineup who had more than five steals last season. It will make them a bit stagnant on the basepaths but adding Shogo Akiyama atop the order will hopefully help add some much-needed flow around the pillows. Not having speed in this environment isn’t a big deal though either and it says a lot about how good this team could be in all facets.

Reds Starting Lineup (2019 Stats)

Order Player Position R HR RBI SB AVG/OBP/SLG
1 Shogo Akiyama CF N/A
2 Joey Votto 1B 79 15 47 5 .261/.357/.411
3 Eugenio Suarez 3B 87 49 103 3 .271/.358/.572
4 Mike Moustakas 2B 80 35 87 3 .254/.329/.516
5 Nick Castellanos RF 100 27 73 2 .289/.337/.525
6 Jesse Winker LF 51 16 38 0 .269/.357/.473
7 Freddy Galvis SS 67 23 70 4 .260/.296/.438
8 Tucker Barnhart C 32 11 40 1 .231/.328/.380
9 Pitcher

Reds Starting Rotation  

Order Player IP W ERA WHIP K
1 Luis Castillo 190 15 3.40 1.15 226
2 Sonny Gray 175 11 2.87 1.09 205
3 Trevor Bauer 213 11 4.48 1.25 253
4 Anthony DeSclafani 166 9 3.89 1.20 167
5 Wade Miley 167 14 3.98 1.35 140

Bullpen  

Role Player IP W S ERA WHIP K
Closer Rasiel Iglesias 67 3 34 4.16 1.22 89
Setup Michael Lorenzen 83 1 7 2.92 1.15 85
Setup Amir Garrett 56 5 0 4.16 1.41 78

 Bench 

Player Position R HR RBI SB AVG/OBP/SLG
Nick Senzel 3B/OF 55 12 42 14 .256/.315/.427
Aristedes Aquino OF 31 19 47 7 .259/.316/.576
Josh VanMeter 2B/OF 33 8 23 9 .237/.327/.408

Sleeper Pick

Mike Moustakas (2B)

I hate to call him a sleeper pick but Moose is ending up on almost all of my teams. The reason for that is because he’s going around pick 100 which simply makes no sense to me. We’re talking about a guy who’s a near guarantee for 30-35 homers and 80-100 RBI. That would be attractive enough at this price but getting him with second base eligibility makes him one of the best values on the board. If you can get 35 homers and 90 RBI out of your second baseman with the 100th pick in the draft, you’re already ahead of most of your league.

Bust Pick

Trevor Bauer (SP)

Bauer is currently going in the top-80 in drafts. While I don’t necessarily think that’s terrible, it’s too high for someone like this. We’re talking about a pitcher who posted a 4.48 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last season. The 2.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 2018 actually appears to be the outlier too, with Bauer posting a 4.36 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his first six seasons. That means he’s a 4.50 ERA and 1.35 WHIP pitcher in seven of his eight seasons and that’s certainly not worth a top-80 pick despite the impressive strikeout stuff.

Outlook

I really like this team! This is easily one of the most talented rosters in baseball and they’re in a division that’s up for grabs. This pitching staff and impressive top-6 in the lineup have them in a great spot to succeed and they’re a darkhorse of mine to reach the postseason. If Joey Votto can somehow recapture his MVP form, this is probably the best team in the NL Central.

 
  1. Beat the Bots says:
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    If VanMeter somehow sneaks his way into playing time, could you see a .250/20/10 line from him?

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Yeah I definitely could. He was amazing his first month in the Majors and if he could just find an every day role, that def seems possible to me. I think an injury will have to happen for that though

  2. Charlie says:
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    Lets see if I can make a case of why Bauer has a rather high ADP. He spent the 1st 5 1/2 years in the AL. Is that worth half a run on his ERA compared to an NL ERA? In 156 innings last year with the Indians he had a 3.79 ERA. Traded to Reds, he had 6.39 ERA in 56 innings, bloating his yearly ERA to 4.48. Maybe a new team problem? He is now right at his peak age (29 yo) on a really good team and had a slightly above average xwOBA (.311) last year with 10.7K/9. So, I guess he might be considered a bust at 80 ADP but surely worth rostering not too many rounds later.

    • Jolt In Flow says:
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      Charlie, from a non-pro, I look at him as having value at his current ADP. He was sent to a new league mid-year and hadn’t faced the majority of the players on the teams he was facing. Because of that, Bauer needed to learn a minimum of 9 new hitters every night versus the hitters only having to learn about 1 player in those same games. To me, you need to cut the slack of at least 1 off season.

      Further, what if the commish does away with the juiced balls? Then Bauer will be back to where her was the previous 3 years.

      • The Real Joey Bart

        The Real Joey Bart says:
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        Yeah but he did struggle in two of those. I dont know, I just dont trust him. That Cy young upside is there though so who knows

      • Saint says:
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        Career 4.04 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and a bunch of K’s after 180+ career starts. Sounds pretty much like Robbie Ray but 80 picks later.

        • The Real Joey Bart

          The Real Joey Bart says:
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          Spot on comparison

        • keith o branstetter says:
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          Yep, the numbers don’t scream stud SP. He’s not a #1.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      I agree with pretty much everything you said but that’s still a lot of ifs. Pitching in cincy pretty much counters the NL AL switch with that nightmare ballpark imo. I honestly dont hate him though, that upside had me debating whether to choose him

  3. Jolt In Flow says:
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    I never thought I’d say this, especially with Votto past his prime, but this line looks good. The pitching looks even better. I agree with your darkhorse; these guys could do some damage, get to the playoffs, then do some more damage there.

    Nice write-up.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Thanks Jolt. Yeah I wasnt quite sure what to think but when I started writing it was like hey, this is a pretty damn good team.

      • Harley Earl says:
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        They’re good. But they ain’t beating the Dodgers. Nobody beats the Dodgers this year, not with Bellinger and Betts, Buehler, Kershaw and Price, plus all the other studs they have.

        I’m a Cardinals fan and it’s obvious who your World Series champion will be. Dodgers and nobody will come close to stopping them.

        • The Real Joey Bart

          The Real Joey Bart says:
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          Yeah I dont think they’d beat the Dodgers. I’m takin the Yanks to win it all though

          • Harley Earl says:
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            Would be a classic Fall Classic!

  4. KrazyIvan says:
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    The interesting part to me is their bullpen. The three you mentioned plus Strop and Robert Stephenson are going to hold a lot of leads in check. Stephenson is a great example of a complete waste of a SP prospect showing out really well in the bullpen.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Exactly, I didnt have room for those other two but it’s really impressive. This team could rank top3 in runs allowed this season

  5. Manny says:
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    Think you are really underestimating Senzel too. Don’t see any way he is the bench OF this season. He should get more ABs than both Shogo and Winker that is for sure…

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Oh I love Senzel man. I think hell be an everyday starter once they realize Winker isnt the guy. I do think Shogo will get more at bats though

  6. Harley Earl says:
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    Joey,

    I have one share of Aristides Aquino and I’m starting to lose faith. He was having a terrible spring. What makes you believe he’s going to make the team when everything that’s out there says he has an option left and likely headed back to Triple-A? I hope you’re right. I’m just more bearish than bullish at the moment.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Oh to be honest, I dont think he’ll make it but I thought it was important to show what he did last season. I think he should be in the everyday lineup personally though. Imagine him in that Winker spot

  7. Paul Burkett says:
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    Joey Votto is finished. “If he can somehow,recapture his MVP form…” that is definitely fake news. I’m a Cubs fan who thinks the Cubs will be fortunate to be .500 team and that’s like me saying if “Jon Lester can somehow not suck…” he sucks and will probably not even be starting games by he end of the season. Let’s be real.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      The word somehow usually doesn’t mean there’s a high percentage of that happening. So it’s far from news

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