Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2014 (6) | 2013 (14) | 2012 (8) | 2011 (8) | 2010 (20)

2014 Affiliate Records
MLB: [77-85] NL West
AAA: [72-72] Pacific Coast League – Tucson
AA: [68-72] Texas League – San Antonio
A+: [75-65] California League – Lake Elsinore
A: [63-76] Midwest League – Fort Wayne
A(ss): [30-46] Northwest League – Eugene (2015: Tri-City)

Graduated Prospects
Jesse Hahn, RHP (traded to OAK)

The Gist
New general manager A.J. Preller wasted no time turning the league’s worst offense into the land of 1,000 outfielders this offseason. At the price of a few good prospects, Upton, Myers, and Kemp make up the new Padres starting outfield. Trea Turner, last year’s first round pick, is in a unique situation in that he’s technically been traded to the Nationals but will remain in the Padres’ minor league system until June. He ended up in top ten list limbo, but you can find some notes on him in the NL East roundup. Yangervis Solarte is projected to lead off and play third for San Diego, but both Will Middlebrooks and Cory Spangenberg could see time there this year. Keep them on the radar for NL-only leagues or deeper mixed formats. Spangenberg is technically still a prospect and as a utility infielder could also spell Gyorko at second base.

Top Ten Fantasy Prospects

1. Hunter Renfroe, OF | Age: 23 | ETA: 2016

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
567 63 134 33 3 21 75 9.3% 23.6% 11 4 .267 .342 .470

The potential for double-plus power coupled with enough speed to get to double-digit steals is why Renfroe tops this list and cracks my Top 50 overall. Obviously Petco isn’t the ideal destination once he arrives, but there’s enough talent here to trump the park. With the trio of outfielders currently in San Diego, the Padres can afford to wait on the 23-year-old Renfroe, who has only logged 60 games at Double-A to this point. He struggled in his first go at the level, which is normal. He’ll return to Double-A in 2015 to refine his approach against better pitching. 2016 is a logical ETA with Justin Upton set for free agency.

2. Rymer Liriano, OF | Age: 23 | ETA: 2015

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
486 69 126 31 3 14 66 8.8% 23.9% 20 8 .291 .362 .473

Like Renfroe, Liriano is going to have more time to cook now that the Padres have a fully-stocked major league outfield. He was expected to take one of the gigs this season from the get-go, but instead he’ll likely spend most of the year at Triple-A. That’s not a bad thing, since there are still some kinks to iron out in his approach despite the toolsy profile. Liriano has plus power and speed, giving him 20-20 potential at his peak. Expect him to get another cup of coffee later this year and to be in the mix for a starting outfield role in 2016.

3. Michael Gettys, OF | Age: 19 | ETA: 2019

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
233 29 66 8 5 3 38 6.4% 28.3% 14 2 .310 .353 .437

Gettys is a toolsy outfielder with double-plus speed and above average power at center field. I might be junk-tuck-put-on-some-Goodbye-Horses crazy to rank him third with that ETA, but the only thing standing in his way is contact. If he can figure out how to make better contact, everything else will come into focus and we’ll be looking at a really nice fantasy prospect. He’s all upside at this point, but if you don’t mind a gamble he’s a good pick in the 20-30 range of dynasty league first-year player drafts. If high strikeout rates make you sick to your stomach, he’s not for you.

4. Matt Wisler, RHP | Age: 22 | ETA: 2015

W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB/9 K/9 AVG
10 5 4.42 28 28 0 146.2 157 75 72 21 2.6 8.3 .271

Safe and boring, but useful in fantasy. That about sums up Wisler. He’s close to the majors and he’ll call one of the best pitcher’s parks his home once he arrives. Wisler’s arsenal includes a plus fastball and a plus changeup with good control of both. 2014 was the first season he walked more than 2.5 batters per nine, and he’s managed to strike out more than eight batters per nine at each stop of the minors as well. The lower strikeout numbers and mid-rotation ceiling limit his overall upside, but the low risk and proximity balance it all out.

5. Franchy Cordero, SS | Age: 20 | ETA: 2018

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
353 45 83 10 5 9 44 5.1% 31.4% 16 8 .255 .305 .400

Signed back in 2011 at 17 years old, Cordero gets the edge over fellow shortstop Rondon thanks to better power potential. In fact, the 20-year-old has enough power to shift over to a corner position. The ceiling is 20+ homers from a starter while the floor is a utility infielder with some pop. If you’re in a league with deep farms, Cordero is a nice infield prospect to gamble on when some of the sexier names are off the board. Like Gettys, you’re taking upside and in exchange you have the longer wait.

6. Jose Rondon, SS | Age: 21 | ETA: 2016

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
488 61 139 26 5 1 36 6.4% 15.0% 13 8 .315 .363 .404

Rondon’s profile isn’t as interesting as Cordero for fantasy, but he’s got the quicker ETA and less risk attached. He was a piece in the Huston Street trade with the Angels last year and unlike Cordero, he’s a much better bet to stay at shorstop thanks to a smaller body and better defense. He makes good contact with at least average speed, and there’s room to grow into some power. The 21-year-old will get his first taste of Double-A in 2015.

7. Jordan Paroubeck, OF | Age: 20 | ETA: 2018

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
157 26 40 8 2 4 24 8.3% 26.8% 4 2 .286 .346 .457

Here’s another toolsy outfielder to keep an eye on. Paroubeck was a 3rd round pick back in 2013, but he has plus power and speed. Thanks to a shoulder injury, he only has 157 minor league plate appearances under his belt, so there’s a good chance he’s not owned yet in most dynasty leagues. He’s a better gamble in deeper leagues right now, but could see his stock climb with a solid showing in his first full season. I guess I can’t call him a sleeper ranking him 7th, but I think he has the chance to make the biggest jump on this list.

8. Fernando Perez, INF | Age: 21 | ETA: 2017

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
507 69 133 24 1 18 95 4.9% 20.9% 3 2 .284 .322 .454

Perez has more offense than defense, so we’ll forget trying to project his defensive home and just focus on the fantasy goodness that could come from his bat. He led the Midwest League in runs batted in last year and in 2015 he’ll get to work in the hitter-friendly California League. With a plus hit tool and at least average power, he’s a good bet to enter the top five in this system by this time next year. By then we may have a better idea of where he’ll play on the diamond.

9. Taylor Lindsey, 2B | Age: 23 | ETA: 2015

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
501 69 107 20 5 10 48 8.2% 11.8% 7 4 .238 .306 .372

A yawnstipating profile, pitcher-friendly home park, and a young MLB player blocking his current path at second make Lindsey less than ideal for fantasy. The 23-year-old came over from the Angels in the Huston Street deal. Even though he struggled at Triple-A in 2014, Lindsey still projects to have above average hitting ability with batting averages in the neighborhood of .280. He’s a good contact hitter, but doesn’t combine that with the power or speed to make him a good choice in fantasy.

10. Austin Hedges, C | Age: 22 | ETA: 2016

PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% SB CS AVG OBP SLG
457 31 96 19 2 6 44 5.0% 19.5% 1 3 .225 .268 .321

Hedges gets the love on traditional lists, but he’s pretty much on the fringe of relevancy in fantasy. Best saved for the deepest dynasties, Hedges probably tops out at double digit homers and an average in the .260-.270 range. That’s not terrible, but if that’s the ceiling and he’s going to hit in Petco than we can do better. Hedges is safe to ignore in mixed leagues and the offensive floor could be low enough to make him borderline even in some of the deeper formats.

Padres Previews: 2014 | 2013

NL T10 Prospects Index

72 Comments
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Marley
Marley
7 years ago

Got offered Strasburg and chapman for cashner and Sano in my dyno lge. Thoughts?

Schwab
Schwab
7 years ago

Hey Mike,
Looking for opinions. 8 team, H2H point based scoring, Keep 15 each year for as long as you want. 1B=1.5pts, 2B=2.5, 3B=3.5, HR=6, RBI=1.5, R,SB,BB=1 each. W=7, L= -2, K=1.5, ER = -1, IP=1.2, QS, CG, SO= 3 each and 10 starts per week. Kept Encarnacion, Rendon, Machado, Baez, C.Gonzalez, Harper, Heyward, Hosmer Price, Cueto, Teheran, Lester, Kluber, Taijuan Walker & Giolito. Any thoughts on where I’m weak, strong and what I should look for in the draft?
Thanks.

Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
7 years ago

MONCADA HIT YAHOO TODAY! it’s too late for me in one league, but it might not be for you.

Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
Reply to  Mordacious Levator
7 years ago

@Mordacious Levator: nevermind that, he’s been there at least since sunday, as somebody drafted him in a different league of mine. In the league where i thought i got snaked to him i already have sano, who’s ranked higher anyway.

thorbs
thorbs
7 years ago

Hey Mike, great writeup as always – I’m very interested to see if Liriano gets some of the shine back this year, and it sounds like you’re like-minded!

Unrelated Q for you – I just flipped Braun/Hanson for Votto/Swihart in a deep 2-catcher dynasty league where we keep 20 with 8 minor leaguers.

My IF keepers are now: Goldy, Pujols, Votto, Kinsler, Odor, Arenado, Frazier
My OF keepers are now: Trout, Ozuna, Yelich, Garcia, Martin
My P keepers are now: Greinke, Hamels, Shark, Ryu, Pax, Wood, Shields, Shoemaker
My prospect keepers are now (and you’ll see your influence here): Bryant, Norris, Heaney, Swihart, Tapia, Souza, Shipley and Olson.

Though I know I’m taking a hit going from Braun to Votto, the league counts BB as a category and I’ll have an excess of OF with Souza likely starting for the Rays full-time.

How do you rate the trade overall, given how many of my prospect keepers will be in the bigs this year?

Pope
Pope
7 years ago

Mike,

Padres should be an interesting team this year.

Can you help me out with some keepers? I’ve read through all your rankings, I’d just like to hear your opinion first hand with my situation.

It’s a standard ESPN 12 teamer, R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP.

Last year was H2H but we may switch to roto, so your input on both league types would be appreciated. $260 auction budget, we can keep 2.

$23 – Pujols
$1 – D. Gordon
$3 – Frazier
$2 – Baez
$10 – Rizzo
$21 – Kemp
$24 – Puig
$1 – Soler
$1 – Bruce
$1 – J. Pederson
$17 – J. Heyward
$1 – C. Carter
$1 – Myers
$1 – R. Castillo
$1 – Y. Tomas

$10 – Cobb
$6 – Doolittle
$3 – A. Wood
$1 – Arrieta
$1 – Fiers
$1 – Carrasco
$21 – Strasburg
$12 – Storen
$1 – J. Fernandez
$0 – Harvey

We can keep these guys at their respective prices forever. I’m jealous of my buddy’s team, looks like he’s going to keep Stanton for $24 and Rendon for $1.

According to your rankings, I’m keeping Rizzo and Puig. Is that still the route you would take in both H2H and Roto?

Pope
Pope
Reply to  Mike
7 years ago

@Mike: Really… Was not expecting that. Soler is supposed to be that good, huh?

I’m definitely on board for this. Puig at $24 didn’t seem like much of a deal to me, plus he’s frustrating, especially in H2H.

Pope
Pope
Reply to  Mike
7 years ago

@Mike: Alright thanks a lot Mike

Shane Schutz
Shane Schutz
7 years ago

Dynasty obp league
We do a prospect draft after our free agent draft but prospects can be drafted in our FA draft, they just take up a spot on your active roster. I don’t have a 1st round prospect pick so I want to grab one of these guys in the FA draft.
Who is the better choice?

Shane Schutz
Shane Schutz
Reply to  Shane Schutz
7 years ago

@Shane Schutz: Schwarber or Swihart

nightpandas
nightpandas
7 years ago

MIkey, thought I would get your take on this question I asked the FML

Keepers are locked in my 15 team keep 11 roto. Have all starters except C and LF.

(Rizzo,Dozier,Arenado,Tulo,Jones,Braun,Bruce)
Pitchers so far are Scherzer, Ventura, Shields, Jansen.

It is a 8×8 with OBP and SLG as well as K/9 and QS.

I have two of the first 5 picks. Looking for some thoughts on what direction to go.

Best available LF is Gardner, Rajai, Pederson, Tomas
Best Sp for my cats are probably : Ross or Salazar, Fiers, Latos
Best RP is Allen (most donkeycorns gone)
Best available period might be Polanco (would be a bench bat)
Best catcher is Lucroy or Gattis (both good OBP guys)
Other high upside prospects: Gallo/Giolito/Synder/Rodon/Giles/Seager

Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
7 years ago

ok’y dokey, my 20 team H2H dynasty with 5 NA slots and (thank god) 5 DL’s drafted just now, i kept full active roster of 25, and since comish doesn’t want to put in any extra work (like i do in my leagues) if you want your prospects you have to count them as active roster players during draft, and slot them into DL or NA slots as soon as draft is over. Roster is now (we can only have 1 total BN slot being a pitcher to combat hoarding, and have 4 BN spots total). Team has to have minimum 9 TEX players at all times (i can always grab Mazara or Brinson later, or a TEX bullpen guy, or injured guy), i have 9 now though.
C -Zunino
1B – Fielder
2B -Gyorko
SS – Andrus
3B – Beltre
LF – Ozuna/Choo
CF – Ozuna/Leonys
RF – Stanton
Util – Rios
BN – Kennys
NA – Gallo/Frazier
DL – Profar
SP – Liriano/Quintana/D.Holland/Hammel/Darvish (wouldn’t it be real neat if he’d just get DL’ed before tuesday so i’d have 6 openings to fill)
RP – K-Rob/Melancon/Giles/Walden
NA – Urias/Bradley
So i have 5 holes (3 RP/1 NA guy (who after grabbing i turn that spot into last BN bat)/1 SP, later a 2nd starter when Darvish gets DL’ed)

FA
SP – C.Anderson/Greene/Happ/Elias/Vogel/House/Garcia/Santiago
RP (does this sound like best waiver order, we have holds/K per 9/relief wins/relief appearances)
1. Jepsen/Marshall/Diekman/Cook/Mujica/Fien/Diaz (CIN)
Morin/Barrett/Petricka/Furbush/Holdzkom/Bastardo/Salas
also crockett and the 3 TEX guys that aren’t closers (do you agree with their order being scheppers/tolleson/fujikawa?

2. who you got for best 2 SP out of those? (it’s possible garcia or house have best value even if they aren’t starting yet, when darvish goes out i can get guy starting now if so, i’ll likely be streaming worst guy anyway)

3.. my thinking for waiver order is top prospect first (tapia/jackson, i’ll get mazara dropping frazier later when he shows up in Yahoo), 2nd-3rd two of the RP, last the SP. sound good?

Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
Reply to  Mordacious Levator
7 years ago

@Mordacious Levator: opps, that should read
1st waiver top prospect
2nd and 3rd top 2 RP
4th best SP
5th 3rd RP slot
then slot NA guy and grab BN bat.

Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
Reply to  Mike
7 years ago

@Mike: only thing that sucks about setting intelligent waivers without dropping anybody to do it, is you have to guess at which guys you get, as i don’t want to get both tapia/jackson (only have NA space for one), but i definitely want one of them. If i was dropping players i could do tapia dropping X, then jackson dropping X 2nd, so i’d only get jackson if i didn’t get tapia. If i made a fantasy site this should still be an option. it’s very simple logic, and a damn shame programmers weren’t allowed to control these options as they’d understand simple logic chains like this.

Mike
Reply to  Mordacious Levator
7 years ago

if it’s a premium league on Fantrax, you can set groups of claims and prioritize within groups…that way you only get the number of guys you want and only the guys you want

Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
Reply to  Mike
7 years ago

@Mike: ok, so i got tapia (at the expense possibly of not getting jepsen), greene, cook, diekman, and a.jackson (NA). Should i keep him or Frazier (CLE)? Your list has them both very very close. I have Stanton/Rios at RF, Ozuna/Choo at LF, and Ozuna/Leonys at CF.

Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
Reply to  Mordacious Levator
7 years ago

@Mordacious Levator: just stashed medlen too, before i pick up fien to close up bullpen.

Mordacious Levator
Mordacious Levator
Reply to  Mordacious Levator
7 years ago

@Mordacious Levator: added shae simmons to the stash pile, there’s usually room with 5 DL’s.

TualatinTwoStep
TualatinTwoStep
7 years ago

Great read Mike. I recently took over a team in a very deep dynasty league that uses a minor league squad as well. Here is how my MLS stacks up after a couple of moves:

Bubba Starling, OF KCR – ’11 Draft Pick 1.02
Kyle Zimmer, P KCR – ’12 MLS Draft Pick 1.06
Max Fried, P ATL – ’12 MLS Draft Pick 2.06
Stephen Piscotty, OF STL – ’12 MLS Draft Pick 3.06
Austin Hedges, C SDP – ’13 Draft Pick 4.09
JR Graham, P ATL – ’13 Draft Pick 7.09
Jessie Biddle, P PHI – ’13 Draft Pick 11.09
Kyle Crick, P SFG – ’13 Draft Pick 10.09
AJ Cole, P WAS
Bradley Zimmer, OF CLE – ’14 MLS Draft Pick 1.06
Keury Mella, P SFG – ’15 Draft Pick 2.08
Daniel Robertson, SS TBR – ’15 Draft Pick 4.08
Yoan Lopez, P ARI – ’15 Draft Pick 9.08
AVAILABLE SLOT
AVAILABLE SLOT

Anyone you see as either worthless or anyone you think can contribute in the next year or two? Thanks!

TualatinTwoStep
TualatinTwoStep
Reply to  Mike
7 years ago

@Mike:

Thanks Mike!!

I was ready to punt Starling and Graham, does the fact that it is a 2 catcher league sway you one way or another on Hedges?

Russ
Russ
Reply to  Mike
7 years ago

@Mike:

Just curious, what is it that you dislike about Zimmer?

David
David
7 years ago

My team is rebuilding mode (3 years from competing) in a 20 team h2h.

I have Brantley and would like to sell high and get some young talent in return when I’m ready to compete. Would you trade him for giolito and winker?

Am I asking too much/too little?

S>H
S>H
7 years ago

forever keeper in a head to head, what side of athe deal is better Sale for S.Gray Tehran and Lindor

J-FOH
J-FOH
7 years ago

Is there a place where you can watch a lot of minor league baseball?

When you our readers are sharing evaluations on players is it from scouting reports, advanced stats, or watching games and creating your own evaluations? Are certain sources better than others? Buzz words like hit tool get thrown around a lot the last few years and with the increasing emphasis on OBP, is that factored into yours personally?

Marley
Marley
7 years ago

Im looking to add a rp to my dyno lge team. 12 tm 5×5 h2h. I own cody allen but would like to add one or two more and I have two picks left. Guys I’m interested in are boxberger, doolittle, Giles, clippard, mcgee, perkins, Cecil. Damn that list jus kept growing lol. Also available is burdi?? Or scrap that idea and go sagnof and draft some bum with potential in season value like Michael morse? Thx mike, happy Sunday!!

Cabby
Cabby
7 years ago

Nice write up. Thoughts on the following:

12 team H2H auction keeper points league
Scoring slightly favors SP and RP.
Just finished auction and my team is thin on pitching(losing Stroman doesn’t help).

C- S. Perez
1B- Goldy
2B- Altuve
SS- Segura
3B- Arenado
MI- Gyorko
CI- Belt
OF- McCutchen, Yelich, Gordon, Bruce, Saunders
U- Plouffe, Pompey, Brad Miller
SP- G. Cole, Cobb, Latos, E. Santana, Cingrani, Happ
RP- Melancon, Papelbon, K. Jansen, B. League, Gregorson

Notable Minor leaguers who may make an impact this year include Addison Russell and Micah Johnson.

Would you trade both Joey Gallo(minor) and Julio Urias(minor) for Tyson Ross and a scrub minor leaguer(kyle freeland)? Tyson is a nice addition at a minimal price($10, will go up to $25 next year). Price seems steep. Same team also has Alex Wood(same price) and Carlos CArrasco($5, can be kept for $10 next year). If I am giving up so much I would rather carrasco. thoughts? thanks

Guidedbyvoices
Guidedbyvoices
7 years ago

Hey Mike….10tm h2h keeper,including k/9,IP,QS,K’s.

We keep 10 and I have a strong lineup.im keeping Salazar and Hughes….need two more SP.

Walker,Gausman,syndegard,bundy,Moore,Greene,Bradley And Minor.

Thnks.

Baezaworldseries
Baezaworldseries
7 years ago

Is Davis sill the king of SAGNOF? OR does Gose eat into his steals and maybe over take him?

Baezaworldseries
Baezaworldseries
Reply to  Mike
7 years ago

@Mike: Hey, Tyrion can get away with it.
I have some questions about a couple minor league guys. But I don’t want to get scalped in that RazzNasty league. What is a guy supposed to do?{sigh}
Would you bid more than $0 in the preseason on specs?
Thanks Mike.

Baezaworldseries
Baezaworldseries
Reply to  Mike
7 years ago

@Mike: Honestly, I don’t like any MILB guys. I understand some things can carry to the bigs. But when you get into the 150s, are there certain combinations of things you look for? I mean at this point I’m just looking for any news that any guy has any chance at any playing time.
Thanks.

Baezaworldseries
Baezaworldseries
Reply to  Mike
7 years ago

@Mike: You say that like you don’t believe in my team Mike. Mike?

S>H
S>H
7 years ago

Great read again Mike, can you rank the follow Sp for me in a standard head to head forever keeper league . Salazar, Quintana , Archer , Lynn, K.Gibson ,H.Bailey ,Harvey, Carrasco and Stroman. Thank for the help

Yescheese
Yescheese
7 years ago

Love Renfroe. Love the Gettys ranking, I think his hit tool is better than advertised. That is one ballsy ranking.

On Cordero – “In fact, the 20-year-old has enough pop to shift over to a corner position.” He has enough errors to shift over too!

Wisler – boring. Thanks for being perhaps the only one to accurately describe his profile.

TJ
TJ
7 years ago

I hear Paroubeck is Barry Bonds protege…or he showed him a thing or three…not a strong system by any means

the franchise
the franchise
7 years ago

Renfroe needs to be better than “serviceable” to convince me that not retaining upton is a smart move