I’m not a huge fan of Dustin Ackley. Way to sell the reader on this keeper out of the gate! Why don’t you just tell me he slept with my Random Italicized mother too? Sorry, Random Italicized Voice, just being up front. The real world is already harsh enough with the truth and non-slanted letters. Lie to me! I love Dustin Ackley. Oh, forget it now. In Ackley’s first full three-quarters of a major league season (maybe that’s not full), he hit 6 homers and stole 6 bases in 333 ABs. Yikes, his ABs are half of the devil, a dwarf devil! Prior to his call-up, he hit 9 homers and stole 7 bases in 66 games at Triple-A. Not one of these numbers jumps out at me as being unlikely from Ackley (say that fast 117 times!). He Ks a bit, walks a bit, steals a bit, badonkadonks a bit. He’s like a young Crapolanco. Yikes, let me get out of the intro paragraph before I drain all of my enthusiasm for him. So what can we expect of Dustin Ackley in 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a keeper?
Okay, here’s the thing, and there’s always a thing unless you live in a vacuum pack. I don’t think Ackley is gonna necessarily crawl up into a ball and be terrible next year. I also don’t think he’s gonna make clay action figures and sell them under the name Sucklord. He’s more or less a teen-ish power and speed guy. It’s just a’ight. On a scale of a’ight, “just a’ight” is below a’ight and a’ight a’ight, but he gets a boost to a’ight and nearly a’ight a’ight with how cheap he should be for people next year. Safeco didn’t play terrible for homers last year, but, as the French say, that was an outlier. It’s a hideous place for power. Last year to get to .273 on his average, he needed a .339 BABIP. That average shouldn’t drop into the toilet like Lawrence Taylor’s post-football life, but he’s gonna be hard-pressed to hit over .270. I’ll give him the line of 80/12/55/.265/12. So the prognosis may not be so Ackadocious, and I may not draft Ackley for my 2012 fantasy baseball team, but I would keep him in the right situation.
Did we Real World yet?
Grey, for the same price, who would you rather keep, Kipnis or Ackley? Thanks!
a rookie 2nd baseman thrust into the 3 hole in the line-up …. speaks
to his potential and regard .
coupled with brendan ryan , he should feel real comfortable in the field .
too soon to make comparisons to aparicio/fox , still , it should affford
him the luxury of concentrating on what’s happening when he steps into
the batter box .
certainly don’t see him as a candidate for the dreaded sophomore jinx .
If he wasn’t a 2nd baseman, I wouldn’t even fart in his general direction.
And I am having a lot of gas today.
Reading this post makes me less likely to draft him than before reading this post. If he’s not projected to hit at least .280 with those subpar counting stats, what’s the point? I’ll wait for a speedster type like Bonerfacio to emerge on the wire.
Who cares about him? I’m a world champion
In a H2H Points league with 6 keepers.
Already keeping Braun, Kemp, AGonz, Hanley, Wright, and I am trying to decide between Adam Jones or Dustin Ackley.
With 5 OF spots and Braun and Kemp already, who is the better keeper overall and for my team? Thanks.
@Awesomus Maximus: Not yet… Top Chef and Next Iron Chef entered my Tivo world so I’m a little backed up.
@Trekker: Ackley
@ChrisV82: Ha!
@SwaggerJackers: Yeah, not a huge fan in a redraft.
@Lance Berkman: Oh, Puma.
@lothda: Jones
@Lance Berkman: Your schtick is getting old… We get it, Grey didn’t believe in you. And I would bet that neither did your own family before the season began.
I’ll still take the “under” on you replicating any of your standard hitting stats in 2012, except maybe RBI with extremely good health. You had a monster 1st half in 2011, but the 2nd half was largely just a hollow high BA.
Berk’s 2009 batting line seem like a spot on expectation for next year: 73/25/80/.274
@Grey:
So you like Ackley as a limited keeper but not as a redraft? I don’t get it. Drafting him as your 20th man would be preferred to keeping him as your 10th, no?
@Bmac: Who said I like him as my 10th keeper over my 20th round pick? No way he lasts into the 20th round in a competitive 12 team or larger league either.
Was quite disapointed reading this after the wonderful time that he and I had together this season. Thought that it could be a long term type thing. Then you go disparaging, and call him a young Crapolano. & just before I begin to buy in and blame him for my 2nd place finish, I realize that it wasn’t fellow 2B Lawrie that you were refering to, but the barely similar sounding Ackley. So, I agree with your accessment and will turn my attention back to football.
Ackley’s September really made his season look bleh. I don’t know if he was tired, pushing, or pitchers began figuring him out, but his K% doubled from July (14% to 29%), and his average plummeted due to the K rise and a steep drop in LD%. His 2011 AAA K% and his 2010 AA and A K% were all around 11%, so I would expect his overall K% to decline considerably.
I also don’t think that his BABIP should scare people away. His average was dragged down considerably by his poor September showing, and the reason for his very high BABIP was that he was hitting a lot of line drives: 25.6% in July and 27.8% in August. I know that the whole “LD% plus .120 = BABIP” formula is too simple, but it shows that his July and August BABIPs (.333 and .380, respectively) should have actually been higher, as should his AVG for those months.
Anyhow, it seems to me that his terrible September is really skewing the results. I’m thinking he could hit .280 plus next year, but considering that he’ll likely only hit HR and steal bases in the mid-teens, I will probably avoid him unless he falls pretty far. And the Mariners sign Pujols.
@zombie: See you soon!
@royce!: Safeco may be the one way to take the shine off Pujols. I agree his September wasn’t good, and if he has a similarly poor April, he’ll be routinely dropped in most leagues.
there’s better options than ackley.
Was just checking some yahoo final #’s…. crazy Cargo finished top 30 and had sub 500 AB’s…. because of injuries. Grey do you see him going 1st round next year? Late first round anyways? He’s obviously got 30/30 potential and probably a .280-.300 (high end) potential. His staying healthy is the main concern.
@Tony: He’s a mid to late 2nd rounder…
@Grey: I ended up getting the new Wilco b/c the wife was digging it. Still not my jam. But it reminded me that I should listen to the first Loose Fur record again. More xylophone!
I like Jhonny Peralta. Maybe it’s the the groundedness that comes from having to constantly spell your name for people, but you never hear him griping about Grey not praising his name to the heavens, despite the fact that he provided greater value as a free agent than some other dudes…
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/11/2/2529675/revisiting-the-value-of-last-years-free-agent-signings
@royce!: You don’t Spotify? No reason to buy anything anymore. And even with that said, I still haven’t heard the new Wilco album. I’ve been meaning to a lot though. I mean, a real lot! You’re just a sucker for the superfluous H.
rumor time ….
jair going to the royals for minor league replenishment .
@chata: The Royals obviously don’t read Razzball. Not crazy about that move by the Royals.
@Grey:
you should consider doing a rumor article .
post moves that you’d like to see .
@Grey:
i’ll start you off … ichiro for austin jackson .
believably stupid … for both teams .
@chata: Never happen. Ichiro will retire a Mariner or go back to Japan.
jason werth for carl crawford .
@chata: Are these deals from your fantasy league?
@Grey:
or , if you’re feeling a bit more mundane tonight :
2 years ago i trusted ben zobrist .
why should i trust him for 2012 ?
in which round do i really start trusting him ??
@Grey:
no .
these deals are rumors that i’m starting .
@chata: Zobrist is a 17/17/.270 guy, give or take 3 homers and steals and 15 points in average. He’s potentially a cheaper Asdrubal depending on how much you trust Asdrubal.
@Grey: I’ll listen to some records online, but depending on the artist, will usually buy a copy of anything I expect to be listening to a lot. I like to think of it as an ethical thing, but it probably come down to the fact that I don’t really listen to music on my computer very often. I should probably get my shizz together and connect my stereo to my computer, but I feel like if I did that, I would just freeze every time I went to listen to something because there would be too many choices.
@royce!: Supposedly Spotify does pay the artists, that’s how it’s legal. But I hear ya, I’m always at my computer so I have music playing from there. (Can put Spotify on your iPhone too, if that’s how you roll.)
@Grey: You have a good point about them paying the artist–I think I remember hearing or reading that somewhere.
I don’t have a facebook account, so I can’t get Spotify. They tried to snare me in with the scrabble app, but I’m still on the facebook lam.
Grey, a question:
13-team 5×5 roto keeper league
$6 Logan Morrison
or
$0 Moustakas?
Salaries increase by $5 every year, so 2013 it would be $11 Lomo, $5 Mous
BJ or Justin Upton….
Who is going to carry better value in redraft leagues in 2012?
Thanks
@ black_toshiba: is that really a question? haha……
@royce!: Wow, no Facebook? So you’re the one! My 84 year old grandfather has Facebook. Cust kayin’.
@In: Moose
@black_toshiba: Justin
@royce!: You can just set up a fake Facebook account.
Also, if you’re a Mac guy, there are ways of streaming music from your computer out to your stereo…
@Grey: Recorded The Hour. Haven’t watched it yet -will report back.
Also, this is football-related, but is still pretty funny:
http://www.digitalmusicnews.com/permalink/2011/111103lions
@Steve: My initial response to you was “slippery slope,” but I was able to read Grey’s e-book without starting to read other books in digital form. Maybe I am strong enough to resist the impulse to look up old girlfriends… yeah right.
Can I wirelessly connect macbook pro to a stereo w/ a free regular AUX jack?
@royce!: Was thinking more of an Apple TV/Airport Express-type solution.
Long-term Keeper question – I can keep 5 of Avilla, Kipnis, Asdrubal, Moore, Goldschmidt, Teheran, Trout. Which two do you think I shouldn’t keep? Thanks!
@Steve: Death to Nickelback! Watched American Horror Story. Scary shizz and mongoloids.
@Quinn: Moore, Teheran…
@Steve:
just got back from visiting my grandson .
while there , i noticed that his mother had a can of febreze air
freshener in the bathroom ….. flavor ==> new zealand spring !
my questions are as follows :
a) does the whole country smell like this ?
b) is that ‘our’ spring or ‘your’ spring ??
(i think it must be your spring … ‘cuz if it was our spring , then it would
be your fall … and it didn’t smell like burning leaves)
c)
d) what’s it smell like in the wintertime over there (pick one) ???