So I go out with this girl the other day on a date. I’m Grey, and I’m playing the field! I take her to this pizza place. It wasn’t particularly fancy, but they had good reviews and oil on the table for bread dipping, so it wasn’t Round Table either. Any the hoo, the pizza comes and she asks for Parmesan cheese. Only she doesn’t call it Parmesan cheese. She calls it “the sprinkle cheese.” Now this is either showing a lack of sophistication or being cute, depending on how expensive the pizza is that you’re ultimately paying for or how horny you are. This is the crux of these keeper posts. Whether a guy is a keeper depends on the price of the pizza and how horny you are (maybe less the latter part). If you have Eric Hosmer for $77 in a 15 team league, that’s too much. But most of you should have Hosmer for cheap, so voilà — he’s here. Here, indeed, he arrived in a big way, says Yoda. Last year in three-quarters of a season, he had a line of 66/19/78/.293/11. That was 128 games, if some of youse don’t know your three-quarterses. (Three-quarteri? Three-quartereaux? Whatever.) His line looks downright Joey Votto-ish (Votto-ey? Okay, I’ll stop). Will this continue for Eric Hosmer in 2012 fantasy baseball or will he be told, “You, sir, are no Sweet Genius!” (<–best/worst show ever)
The 11 steals look high even though it wasn’t a full season. Everyone on the Royals stole a lot of bases last year. I mean, c’mon, Frenchy stole 22 bases. “Hey, how come there’s only green M & M’s in this bowl?” That’s a Royals player in the locker room. Can Hosmer steal more than 11 bases? Sure. Just like Votto stole more than 11 bases last year. Sike! Votto only stole 8 bases last year. I fooled you bad! Seriously, I made you look silly. When players steal between 7 and 12 bases a year, they’re not really base stealers and can easily only steal 5-7 bases. That still makes Hosmer more valuable than the average 1st baseman, since they usually don’t give you much in the way of speed. His batting average last year at .293 looks more than doable. I wouldn’t be surprised to even see him hit twenty points higher with some luck. I wouldn’t expect that though. His K-rate was a bit high and his walk rate a bit low. Remember a large part of his average was driven by a huge September when he hit .349. His month of May last year looks the most relevant. In 99 ABs, a .283 average with a .295 BABIP. I’d go on the conservative side for average just to play it safe — say .280. Finally, the power. He was pretty consistent with power. He hit 4 or 5 homers in every month, except June when he just slumped all around. Since he just turned 22 years old, his power is not going to be all the way there yet. In time, he should be a 30 homer guy. Next year, I’d hope for 24 homers and expect 22, but as previously mentioned on the aforementioned tip, he’s not going to kill you anywhere and will be in the heart of the Royals lineup. Let’s say 80/23/95/.280/10. That makes him a definite keeper. Now please pass the sprinkle cheese!