The other day I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball. Today, we hold that up to the mirror and see how the other half lives. Last time I looked at the starters that were being unlucky the list included: Dempster, Garza, Wood, Liriano, Narveson, Ervin, Gallardo, Daniel Hudson, Bumgarner and Edwin Jackson. Bumgarner’s ERA went from 4.25 to 3.23; Edwin’s ERA went from 4.53 to 4.39; Hudson’s 4.41 to 3.82; Gallardo’s 5.11 to 3.96; 4.85 to 4.37 for Ervin; Narveson went 4.38 to 4.32; Wood went 5.28 to 5.38; Garza went 4.17 to 3.84 and Dempster went 7.20 to 5.48, i.e., there was only one pitcher who gained in ERA — Travis Wood. I.E. II, The Return of I.E.: Everyone did better except one guy. Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign. Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!)
Ryan Dempster – 2.17. Will continue to get better. Oh, and the two of the three unluckiest pitchers are Cubs. Blame Bartman! (BTW, there were some pitchers I left off of here that came with xFIPs that were better than their ERAs, but still terrible. Javier Vazquez come to mind.)
Chris Volstad – 1.96. Harumph, where did that name come from, huh? His K-rate is 6.72, which isn’t terrible, and his K to BB ratio recently has been solid. Worth a shot in deeper leagues to see if he can right the ship and leave a few more men on base and stop having balls go through.
Matt Garza – 1.54. He has the 4th best xFIP in the league. Right after Halladay, Hamels and Cliff Lee. Maybe the Phils will trade for him.
Chris Carpenter – 1.05. I’ve spent a lot of energy on Razzball talking about how I don’t like Carpenter, so I won’t bore myself by rehashing. Instead, I’ll bore myself by talking about how I won’t rehash it. If you can get Carp on the cheap, it’s worth considering, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher.
Chris Narveson – 0.98. Has a real nice K-rate and his xFIP is below 3.50. The walks kinda drive me crazy though. If he’s on waivers, it’s worth a shot.
Derek Holland – 0.89. I really don’t like messing with Texas pitchers. I wouldn’t like to sit in the stands in 100 degree heat, let alone play in it. Now get off my lawn!
Ubaldo Jimenez – 0.80. Jackie Chiles thinks his walks have been egregious, and his K-rate has been down. On the more positive side, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher, but closer to a mid-3 guy.
Grey speaking of Jackson is he still getting unlucky or woukd you say he’s right where he’s supposed to be?
Grey….I know your not a Nolasco fan….he’s driving me crazy, is it worth dropping him for Niese, or ride him out as my #4?
Also…rest of year – Nishioka or Uggla? – yikes!
Grey — That headline was just asking to be written.
A coupla questions:
Trolling for saves, who do you think is a better roll of the dice between Isringhausen (on the idea that F-Rod may be traded to limited to prevent his expensive vesting option), Fuentes (in case Bailey gets hurt again), Choate (Nunez has been stinking up the joint), Lindstrom (in case Street gets hurt), or Kuo (in case he’s over the yips and Broxton stays away for a while yet)?
Also, would you drop Minor after tonight’s start? Assuming he stays up, his next start is against Toronto, which is hitting .292 against LHP, and Beachy should be back soon after that. Or am I missing something?
Both questions are for a 20-team roto league.
@mets fan: He should be better.
@AmishGangster: Uggla…I’d go with Niese.
@Enrique: Yup…Fuentes…Yeah on Minor….Beachy’s due back.
Morrow doesn’t make thjs list? That’s surprising to me. I know his SIERA or whatever they call it over at BP is a lot better than his ERA, would’ve figured his xFIP would be too.
Hill or Ackley?
@theguarantee: I was thinking the same thing. With a difference of 2.03 he’s right up there with Dempster.
That being said, loyal readers will already know of Grey’s unabashed love for Morrow and his lovely K rate.
Would you drop Daniel Hudson or Scherzer to pick up Garza? It’s a 10 team standard roto.
Grey, would you cut any (or all) of:
Travis Wood
Scott Baker
Jordan Lyles (getting roughed up tonight) for any
for any (or all) of:
Brian Matusz
Charlie Morton
Rubby de la Rosa
@Grey: Thanks Grey.
Ugh! Among that list of could-be closers, I was scared you’d say Fuentes (he does so much damage to ERA and WHIP), but I sort of suspected you’d say Kuo. Do you think he’s not over what ails ‘im? Or do you think the Dodgers bullpen situation is too much of a mess.
If I’m hesitant on Fuentes, who is No. 2 on that list (Isringhausen, Choate, Lindstom, Kuo)? Or do you think my concerns about Fuentes may be overblown? I’m in the middle of a scrum of six teams within 0.02 on WHIP and I’m worried I could fall off the back of that pack if Fuentes does his magic.
I ask this every start, and I’m sick of it. Today’s the last day.
To Gio, or not to Gio?
I think I’ve benched him for 3 straight starts, which in a 10-team league is unacceptable.
Grey,
Ike Davis/Kershaw or Heyward/Alex Gordon/Moreland where the Kershaw side has Felix, Norris, Liriano, EJax at SP and Kemp, Markakis, Swisher in the OF
@Tom Thumb: That is those are the players in SP and OF for the team GIVING Kershaw
@Tom Thumb: And do you like Kershaw/Davis/Montero for Heyward/Santana/Britton more?
@theguarantee: @Dick Smothers: Wow, totally missed him on my search, but yeah I love him, you know that.
@Black Beard: Ackley
@Biggidy: Nope
@Al Swedgin: Can try Rubby over Lyles.
@Enrique: Lindstrom..>I wouldn’t start Fuentes. I’d bench him until Bailey gets injured.
@bogbert: You shouldn’t own him if you don’t start him today.
@Tom Thumb: Kershaw side.
Hey, Grey, got a trade question for ya. Currently sitting 11th in a 15-team roto keeper. I’m hanging around the middle in batting cats, but I’m second-to-last in pitching with a staff of Weaver, Josh Johnson, Price, Garza, Morton, Ervin, Fr. Garcia, and Nova. Offensively, my top guys are Miggy, Zimmerman, Heyward, Morse, S. Drew, and Kubel.
Whaddaya think about doing Miggy/Morton for Howard/CC?
What about Brandon Morrow??
Would you start Gio today on a team that has a 1.04 ERA, a 0.55 WHIP, and a 10.04 Ks/9?
@Wilsonian: those are my stats for the week. I’m starting him in a different league.
greinke and garza playing a suckathon
Dear God, Adam Lind is really good. My Rasmus/EJax for Hamels/Lind deal at the start of the season looks amazing and kind of makes up for the Bruce/Contreras for CSantana/Walden deal that I did.
@Danks Nugs: Sounds fine.
@virinder: Someone asked that above.
@Wilsonian: Yup
@AL KOHOLIC: Yup
Sorry, asked this question in your previous entry:
Pedro Feliz or Daniel Hudson?
Adam “Is this a video game or real life?” Lind
@Schmohawks Bob: Pedro Feliz? Hudson
@tggq21: Ha!
Grey: would u trade Mike stanton and CJ Wilson to get Josh Hamilton and Dan Haren in a 6×6 h2h league?
Do you like Morrow morrow than Gio, Pineda, Beachy in a Ks/9 league?
Grey,
What do you think about dropping either Kuroda or Gavin Floyd for a Dumpster on waivers?
Potatoes v. Potahto situation? Or Potatoes v. Loaded Disco Fries situation?
(assuming you like Disco Fries)
@Grey: Neftali Feliz or Daniel Hudson?
@Joel: Nope
@Wilsonian: Over Pineda
@Graveyard Duck: Floyd…Who doesn’t like Disco Fries?!
@Schmohawks Bob: I figured… Hudson
Hey Grey:
You helped me out last week with a question about my nephew’s team who is looking for a power infusion by acquiring Mark Reynolds
The other owner has come back with an offer of Reynolds/ Masterson for Yunel Escobar and Markakis which I think is much better than his original request of Romero for Reynolds
My nephew should jump on this right?
@Grey: Please rank for ROS: Markakis, A. Jackson, Sandoval, Dunn and Cuddyer…
D Wrong on DL so:
Rolen or Trumbo until he returns?
and 1 more:
Trumbo or Joyce rest-of-year?
@Grey:
I’ve rostered James McDonald for his past 3-4 starts in a 12-team H2H league. Is he still rosterable?
He has tied me to the WHIPping post time and time again.
@Eddy:
Also: Posada or Salty in a 12-team standard league?
@KarlJ.: Yup
@Fletch: Sandoval, Dunn, Cuddyer…
@Brandon: Rolen…Joyce…
@Eddy: Not in a 12 team league.
@Eddy: Posada
Would you trade adam jones straight up for Scherzer?
10 team H2H
OF- Dread Pirate, Krispie Young, Morse, Grady Sizemore and jones (can only play 4 of them)
SP- Kershaw, Gallardo, Marcum, Liriano, Bedard and Bud Norris
Keeper League 7×7(OBP, TB+BB are the extra offensive cats)
My Howard/CC
for
His Miggy/Morton
Is Miggy worth this cost considering I can keep him for 3 years if I do this trade?
i give espinoza and bj. upton for ricky weeks? i have hamilton ellsbury and werth for cf already is this an ok trade?
@Grey: you wouldn’t drop Pineda for Morrow, though, correct?
@Grey:
Grey, I haven’t encountered anyone who doesn’t like them, but if I ever do, I’m running as fast as I can in the opposite direction.
2nd question: You think Oswalt is getting back on track?
grey, what’s up with alexxxxxxxxis rios? is he this bad. or a buy low guy?
@DSimms: Sure
@quimmy: Didn’t you just ask me this? The Howard side is better for this year, I’d prefer Miggy moving forward.
@lost: Looks fine.
@Wilsonian: Nope
@Graveyard Duck: I worry about Oswalt, but not that much. He faces weak offenses and he muscles through seasons.
@pubscout: I wouldn’t touch him.
grey, please don’t get snooty with me….
6×5 (+OPS), keeper, ten team:
Kemp and Romero
or
Votto and Kershaw
@Grey: You like Chacin @ Cle next week or Sabathia home against Col?
It’s so awesome that there’s someone called Rubby playing baseball (even if it’s pronounced Ruby).
Just a pity that Rubby never played with Stubby:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clappst01.shtml
With E. Sanchez going on DL .. I have an opening in my NL 4X4.. someone dropped Volquez.. worth a grab?
His last 2 starts seem promising..
It appears Danks Nugs and quimmy are in the same league and are using the same site for their advice.
I think you got yourself a good old fashioned baseball advice duel on your hands Grey!
Good stuff. Thanks.
@Black Beard: Votto
@Fletch: Both…Chacin…
@Steve: Ha
@elwood blues: Yeah, grab him.
@yankees2011: Ha…Nice.
@Grey: Cruz/Sandoval for McCann/Victorino?
Hey Grey,
What would you think about a trade of B.J. Upton for Carpenter? I would be giving up the BJ (that didn’t sound good).
This is with the same Owner who I offered Pence and Tabata to for Hanson and he hasn’t moved on it either way. Too much? Should I leave that one up there?
Thanks much Grey.
P.S. I wonder how many times you have had people in the same league ask for advice on deals between eachother.
@Grey: Also, I just got offered Heyward, V-Mar and B. Wilson for my Cruz, Molina and Nunez?
Madson and Walden for Haren?????
thanks
@Fletch: Cruz
@yankees2011: I’d take Carp if you need pitching… It’s not too much for Hanson.
@Fletch: Sounds fine.
@Donnie Baseball: I’d take Haren.
12 team head to head 7×7 with ops, ks
Hanley/Dunn or Votto/Yunel?
Last question – promise. Would my Upton for his Zimmerman be better than Carpenter? I could really use another top starter (hence the offer for Hanson), but I would settle for a solid Number 2 (that sounds like my plea in the AM after chimichanga night at South of the Border).
Thanks Grey.
@The Burghler: Hanley…It’s fair though.
@yankees2011: Ha… Zimmermann the pitcher? He’s not a solid #2. It’s fair for Zimm. Wouldn’t do it in most 12 team leagues or under.
12 team mixed league that plays 4 OF and a utility position. alex rios was dropped today. you taking a flyer?
The Lohse Regression is in full swing.
adrian gonzalez and romero for pujols (3B eligibility coming soon). which side wins in an 8 team league?
Greinke or Haren?
Thanks again.
wow first at bat back from the DL.. Holliday write back soon
Grey, I’d like to add Ackley.
Who is most droppable? Matt LaPorta or Chris Coghlan in a head to head points league. I’ve got adequate bench options at both 1B & OF.
@Grey: What do you expect from Gallardo, Bedard, and Hosmer for the rest of the season? I have a trade on the table and I’m having trouble putting values on these 3. Thanks in advance.
@Grey: Is Gallardo enough for Reyes right now?
Randall Delgado is getting the call up to start tomorrow against TEX. Good spot start? Nah, kidding. But it is crazy how deep the Braves system is for pitching. They basically have an 8-10 man rotation.
Oh, this is because Hanson is scratched for tomorrow- sore shoulder.
@royce!: What did I tell you? The Kiwis are in full retreat…
The Red Sox have pushed back the start time of their Saturday home game with the Milwaukee Brewers to avoid a conflict with the Boston Bruins’ Stanley Cup victory parade.
Speaking of FIP and being unlucky, Zach Greinke should be in for a big correction…he got tagged a bit today, but still had 10Ks…would you trade either Morse or J-Upton for him straight up in a 12-team, 4 OFer league?
Hey grey…
Would you dump Rajai Davis in favor of Pagan at this point? Also, am I correct to assume you’d take Pagan over Blackmon?
Vladdy or Alex Rios? Also, do you concur with my sitting of Demp vs. the Yanks?
@KCC26: Nope
@Steve: Sweet
@pat: A-Gon
@Donnie Baseball: Greinke
@tggq21: Ha!
@DHill Dragons: Coghlan
@Tele: Gallardo’s way better than the other two.
@Steve: Maybe to someone.
@royce!: Uh-oh.
@VinWins: They won?
@Exactly: Agreed… I’d trade Morse for him.
@WDE05: Pagan over Blackmon. I’d take Pagan over Davis on some teams.
@Eng: Vlad….I wouldn’t start him there.
@Steve: Betcha can’t beat me to the bottom! My “trade Lester and stream SP” experiment is off to a rousing start!
@Grey: Ha. Yeah, and idiots in Vancouver used it as an excuse to riot.
Need help from gallery! Commish and another guy agreed to a deal in a standard 10 team roto league. Commish gets Felix Hernandez and Kemp…other guy gets Cueto, SBaker, Konerko and Boesch. Give it to me straight guys, am I crazy for overreacting to this? Thanks in advance!
@VinWins: Wow, my blinders really block out everything but baseball. Hadn’t heard about any of that.
@Public Enemy #1: Pretty terrible trade.
@Grey:
Which start is best?
Carlos Carrasco v. PIT (@CLE)
Vance Worley v. SEA (@PHI)
Alex Cobb v. FLA (@TB)
Rub-Me with some Roses v. HOU (@LAD)
@Eddy:
PHI v. SEA is @SEA, not @PHI.
@Eddy:
Last SP to add:
Jason Marquis v BAL (@WAS)
Hanson possibly to the DL. Wonder if you recall my mid-June prediction from March?
@Wake Up: Aah! Hanson! Hit with the Tommyhawk! Shouldn’t'a built that stadium on the burial ground (further research indicates it’s not a burial ground, just a dump for old Coke bottles. But, given what went into the stuff, same vibes).
Do you guys think my Cueto/Moustakas for his Heyward is fair to either/both of us?
.– …. . .-. . / -.. .. -.. / – …. .. … / — — .-. … . / –. ..- -.– / -.-. — — . / ..-. .-. — –
@Awesomus Maximus:
Is that Morse code for “why the hell did Salas hit Morse with a pitch, he should’ve allowed a 2-run game-winning HR?”
Espinosa 3 run walk off.
@Long Bawls: Ha. Best news I’ve heard all season!!!
That didn’t seem to work properly, second try:
.– …. . .-. . / -.. .. -.. / – …. .. … / — — .-. … . / –. ..- -.– / -.-. — — . / ..-. .-. — — / ..–..
Thanks to Venters and K-Rod for really f-ing up my ratios..
Meh… your site parses some character groupings in odd ways. My Morse joke would have been mildly amusing if it worked on the first shot… mais non.
Glass Chipper left the game with an injury. GFD.
@grey and everybody- In case you havnt seen it yet, the first official trailer for Moneyball was released today. The book was great and hopefully the movie will be as well. While the concept at the time was fantastic, a lot of Billy Beane’s draft picks have not been that successful and Oakland has struggled in recent years.
Check it out
http://www.brobible.com/bronews/moneyball-trailer
Kazmir waived after posting a 17 ERA in the minors. Kazaam on VHS is a better pickup at this point.
I’ve got Alfanso Soriano coming off the DL … drop any of Abreu, Rizzo, or Mouse to activate him … or just drop Soriano altogether?
walk-off balk
Walkoff balk in Atlanta… LOL. Only the Mets.
@Eddy: Rubby
@Long Bawls: Yup
@Wake Up: I don’t.
@Awesomus Maximus: Nice
@Martin: Yeah, saw it.
@Awesomus Maximus: Ha!
@K!cks: Rizzo
@Eddie: Oh, Mets.
Hi Grey, I’ve been shuffling around my catchers all year…moving forward, who do you like of the following? Arencibia, Lucroy, Posada, Hernandez, Torrealba, Salty. Thanks a ton.
@Mike: Arencibia
@Grey: I said 40% SL/CRV. No changeup. Will have a DL stint by mid-June. Injury concern. I expect this to be awhile. You said Don’t no about that Hanson thing. Will see what happens. I have been in Dubai, just got back in time for the great news. At least I got something right this year.
@Grey: Peavy or Beachy?
In an 8 Team H2H would you deal Pineda/Zobrist for Greinke/Espinosa? What about for Scherzer, Shields or Kennedy paired up with Espinosa?
Would you rather deal Uggla instead of Zobrist?
Can you tell I’m drinking the Espinosa Kool-Aid?
@Wake Up: Ha…Nice call.
@Fletch: Beachy
@Wilsonian: I’d take Greinke and Espinosa. I’d deal Zobrist.
Espinosa over Sandoval or Dunn?
Grey:
Trade in a keeper league:
I give CJ/Volquez, I get jiminez/zimmermann. Volquez is under contract for two more years at 5 dollars, Jiminez is under contract for one more year at 5 dollars. I would also swap my 15th round pick for his 20th round pick in next years draft. Greenl ight right?
@Grey: no Greinke. Would you do it for Scherzer, Shields, Jimenez or Kennedy? Would you flip just Zobrist for Espinosa?
@Fletch: Eh
@iceman: Go for it.
@Wilsonian: Shields, Scherzer, Ubaldo… Or just flip Zobrist for Espinosa.
@Grey: Gotta go Essss-piiiiii-noooo-ssss-ahhhhhh! over Hill, right?
Elsewhere, he’d find the AL East much tougher than where he is, but you gotta think the Yanks would like to have Kennedy doing work for them right now.
Two questions, sorry.
1) Should I trade Ryan Roberts, Axford, and Chacin for Kershaw and Garza?
My other SP are:
JJ (out), Scherzer, Gee, Norris, Bailey (out), Maholm, Nicasio (stream guy)
I have Utley, Reynolds, Alex Gordon and Pujols (with one more start) to man 2B and 3B.
2) What do I do with Jeter? No one in my league wants to give up ANYTHING for him. Trust me, I’ve asked everyone and all replied they don’t want him. I know if I drop him, someone is bound to pick him up.
@ Grey
Who should I drop to add Beachy as a FA? Holland, Narveson or Stauffer
@Grey: Gotta drop one between Reynolds, Pena and Boesch. Who gets the axe?