Fantasy Baseball Advice

This year Doug Fister has been a revelation like a Dorito in the shape of the Virgin Mary telling you it’s time to change your underwear.  Mystically, making something out of nothing and turning it into a little something-something.  13 strikeouts yesterday?!  Doode has never struck out more than 6 prior to this year.  I never thought I’d say this, but I really like Fister and it hurts so good.  Sure, I’m pretty easy.  Strikeout some guys and I get all googly-eyed, but he now has a 2.64 ERA on the Tigers and a 3.17 ERA on the year with a 1.14 WHIP.  Fister?!  I hardly knew her!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carlos Beltran – Missed yesterday’s game with food poisoning.  You can call him Upchuck Beltran.

Dexter Fowler – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs and 2 homers.  Now has four homers in the past week.  Pick him up in all leagues.  For a while I’ve been saying he’s capable of being a poor man’s Shane Victorino.  You know, Feign Victorino.  So the power isn’t totally coming out of left field, um, center field.

Mike Stanton – Missed yesterday’s game and could miss several more.  I’m pouring some of my forty out for you.

Jair Jurrjens – Will be out at least two more weeks.  If you don’t have the DL room, wash that Jurrjens right outta your team.

Brian Dinkelman – 3-for-7 as he was recalled and started in both games of the doubleheader.  Take that, Ryan Seacrest!

Sergio Santos – In first game of the doubleheader, he didn’t start the ninth in a save situation then came on, gave up a run and was pulled for Chris Sale.  Santos is the closer still, but Ozzie’s been known to flip the script on sanity occasionally.

Zach Stewart – 9 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 0 Walks, 9 Ks.  Brilliant start, obviously, but in his last game vs. the Twins he gave up 6 earned in 4 2/3 innings and that’s just as likely to happen again next time.  Too late in the year to trust a rookie pitcher.  BTW, in Chicago, Zach Stewart’s fans should dress up like bears and they can be known as the Stewart root bears.

Jason Bay – 2-for-4 with a homer.  I feel dirty even saying this, but he has two homers in the last three games.  He’s obviously not a spectacular option, but he might be okay for a week or so.

Grady Sizemore – 0-for-4 as he returned from the DL and hit leadoff.  Just in time for the Indians to pretend they still have hope for the playoffs.  Crazy the only real race in baseball is the Rangers and Angels and I don’t really buy the Bobby Grichville Angels have much of a shot for the playoffs.  Maybe Selig will cook up some new crackpot way to get more playoff races.  Bud Selig, “We’re gonna have a Wilder Card team next year and that team will play the All-Star game winner and then the winner of that will be an automatic World Series team.  Yes, that could mean the National League All-Star team might play the Brewers in the World Series, which will mean Prince Fielder’s on both teams.  It’ll mean ratings.  Die, football, die!  My toupee will now take questions.”

Henderson Alvarez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He’s been solid in three of his last four starts, but with H2H playoffs and roto championships on the line, I wouldn’t risk it with Alvarez this year.  Of course it depends on how much risk you need to take on.

Brett Lawrie – 1-for-3 with a steal and a walk-off homer.  Desmond Jennings who?  OH, NO, YOU DIDN’T.  I did, Al Caps.  NO, YOU DIDN’T.  I did.  DAMN.

Tim Stauffer – 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 1 K.  He totally roped me in again.  I saw Petco and the weak Giants lineup and I gave him another whirl and he defecated on my teams.  He’s probably just tired, but if he can’t be counted on in Petco vs. the Giants he’s so done.

Billy Butler – Yesterday, he hit two homers.  One for each of his oversized areolas.

John Axford – Threw a clean inning for his 41st save.  Now has a 2.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 75 Ks in 64 2/3 innings.  His face is a bit too over-adorned with a soul patch, but he’s having a great season.  Too bad he’ll probably end up being drafted too high next year.

Robert Andino – 2-for-5 with his 3rd homer.  After his big game, he posed for his CBS profile pic.

Mark Reynolds – 3-for-4, 2 RBIs and his 32nd homer and 6th steal for the slam & legs.  It’s been almost 10 days since the last time I said if only he’d hit .260.  If only he’d hit .260…

Erik Bedard – Next start is getting skipped because he’s Erik Bedard and he’s never healthy.

Josh Beckett – Left yesterday’s game with a sprained ankle.  His next start will probably be pushed back a few days as a precaution.  Or maybe they’ll just wrap it in police caution tape.

Bobby Jenks – After undergoing a colonoscopy, Jenks has been ruled done for the year.  The colonoscopy camera has been ruled done forever.

Mike Morse – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 25th and 26th home runs.  Slash slash dot dot.

Derrek Lee – 1-for-3 with a homer.  Is now 7 for his last 12 with two homers.  On Friday, someone in our fantasy sports forums asked who to drop between someone, someone, someone and Lee.  I told them to lose Lee.  I’m sorry, friend.  DL’s return from the DL has been bombastic, very fantastic.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks.  Looks like he’s fixed whatever problem was bothering him… Actually, I’m not sure that’s the case, but it seems that way.

Madison Bumgarner – 8 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 13 Ks.  How about You Can’t Get More Than Two In On This Bumgarner?  How about that name, ‘son?

Pablo Sandoval – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and 2 homers.  Elias Sports Bureau reported that with Butler and Sandoval’s 4 combined homers, there was more home run trot moob jiggling yesterday than ever in the history of baseball.

Scott Sizemore – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in 3 games.  At least one Sizemore is performing this year.  If you need a middle infidel with some pop, I’d go with Sizemore.

James Shields – 9 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 KS.  Here’s a riddle for you:  What do James Shields and George W. Bush have in common?  If you answered, they both hit rock bottom when they were criticized by Kanye, you’re wrong, but I appreciate you trying.

Evan Longoria – 1-for-2 with his 25th homer and 2nd steal for the slam & legs, which is also a special at a Tampa area strip club.  Longoria’s hitting .236 on the year, which is because of a ridiculous amount of bad luck.  I’ll take him in the 2nd round of next year’s drafts without thinking twice about it.

Carlos Marmol – Threw a perfect inning for the save yesterday.  Cubs say we are (not) Marshall.

Mark Trumbo – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in three games.  He’s having a great year (26 homers, 8 steals).  No doubt, Stefani.  But his OBP is .297.  Um, burp?

Dellin Betances – Yankees are considering bringing up their best pitching prospect for the stretch run as a bullpen arm.  See Joba and Hughes for how I feel about Yankee pitching prospects, i.e. more hype than they’re worth.  Stephen went over his Dellin Betances fantasy not that long ago.  He wrote it while setting fire to a picture of me.

Jesus Montero – 2-for-3 with his first 2 major league homers.  The lucky fan who caught Jesus’s first homer returned it in exchange for a piece of the Shroud of Turin.

Hello, my name is Brett Jackson. My recent power binge – four home runs in eight games – is confirming I am the Cubs best minor league player. Even when I strikeout nearly once every three at-bats, my prowess in the field and suave good looks will bring me to the top. Did I mention scouts believe I’m a lock for becoming a 20/20 player; at 15/18 across Double-A and Triple-A?  With a little under a month, I may just prove them right.

Here is some other Minor League news:

Randall Delgado | ATL | RHP (SP): Was promoted to Triple-A on 8/3/11 after posting a 3.84 ERA, 110:46 K:BB in 117 1/3 inning at Double-A. With a career high of 161 innings pitched in 2010, I don’t see the Braves limiting his total innings this year. Could receive a September call up, depending on matchup could be a nice flyer/streamer by the end.

Matt Moore | TB | LHP (SP): Another week, another solid Matt Moore start at Triple-A: 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners (1 BB), 9 K.

Tim Wheeler | COL | CF: I lament your existence and lack of pedigree only for you to wipe my face in your stellar stats. I sing your laurels and tattoo your namesake to my arm for you to upper-deck my porcelain god. Take your .171/.227/.171 slash line in 41 at-bats and, and, and … argh, it’s not worth the time. [/rant]

Anthony Rizzo | SD | 1B: Was demoted 7/21/11. Since 7/27/11, he is hitting .313/.366/.844 in 32 at-bats with 9 XBH (4 Hr). The Pacific Coast League definitely isn’t holding him back. His high strikeout rate in the majors and Petco probably had more do with his poor performance.

Julio Teheran | ATL | RHP (SP): What do you get when you’re the top pitching prospect in baseball, you have a string of consecutive starts were you haven’t lost since May, and you give up four runs in your worst start in over two months? Another win. His ERA is low, but is a positive, his strikeouts are down, but that is a negative, albeit, his walks are down, which happens to be a positive. Lows to remain one of the top pitching prospects for 2012, barring the Mayan’s predictions.

Martin Perez | TEX | LHP (SP): Lost in the shuffle of Matt Moore and Brad Peacock is Perez. One of the game’s top young (D.o.B: 4/4/1991) pitching prospects. He was promoted to Triple-A on July 16th, at the tender age of 20. His first start was decent, but starts two, three and four were a disaster. The most recent start (number five), was much better. He went 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 Baserunners (2 BB), and 8 K. Two years younger than my favorite young pitcher (Matt Moore), the Rangers number one prospect has plenty of time, pedigree and talent to reach the majors and become a bonafide number on starter.A

Johnny Giavotella | KC | 2B: The Royals promoted their 18th ranked prospect for Friday’s game. In Triple-A, he was hitting .338/.390/.481 in 453 at-bats with 45 XBH (9 Hr, 34 2B), 9 steals in 14 attempts and a 57:40 K:BB ratio. During his debut on Friday night, he went 2-for-3 with a double, RBI and a stolen base. He has gap power with slightly below average speed. Defensively, he’s a tweener. Nothing exciting. Don’t expect more than a few home runs and a couple of steals at most from Giavotella.

Zach Stewart | CHW | RHP (SP): The White Sox recalled Stewart to start Saturday against the Twins. Has control/command problems and good strikeout potential (8 K/9 ceiling) with his 94 to 96 MPH sinking fastball and biting slider.

Henderson Alvarez | TOR | RHP (SP): There were rumors that Alvarez would have received the Jays spot start given to Brad Mills. Alvarez is a ground ball pitcher who throws a 92 to 94 MPH plus-fastball and a plus changeup that has a feigned splitter action. His breaking pitch needs improvement. In 88 Double-A innings, he has 66 strikeouts, 17 walks, a 2.86 ERA (3.55 FIP) and a .286 BABIP. He is still learning how to pitch instead of throw and projects for middle-of-the-rotation.

J.J. Hardy has been hotter than a Latin woman frying chorizo in the Sahara desert.  Why she is in the Sahara is fodder for a J.J. Abrams movie.  In 2008, Hardy hit 24 homers and .283 in his fourth big league season.  Then poof.  Nothing.  He vanished.  Or did he?  It’s the real Hardy Boy mystery and, if he did it in a small bucolic town, it could be read as voiceover by Keith Morrison on Dateline.  He’s still only 28 years old and capable of 20+ homers over the course of the season.  Over the last ten games alone, 3 home runs and hitting .395.  Next week, the moon!  And Abrams might have a thing to say about why the moon too.  If Hardy’s on waivers, I’d absolutely grab him to see if he can continue to hit and stay healthy.  J.J.’s dyn-o-mite!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tommy Hanson – Scratched from his Friday start with a sore shoulder.  Hanson’s value goes Mmmmplop.  Hopefully, he just needs a few days, but a shoulder problem… Well, just keep telling yourself he’s gonna be all right.

Randall Delgado – Will take Hanson’s Friday start.  Where did I just read about him?  Oh, I know!  Here, two days ago.  Stephen just dropped his Randall Delgado fantasy on you.  He wrote it while sitting outside of Diane Lane’s house.  Creepy!

Brandon Beachy – Had a solid rehab start.  Will have one more next week and then rejoin the Braves rotation.  And not too soon after Minor’s start last night.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper left yesterday’s game with a groin strain.  Vegas pays out a nickel for every thousand dollars bet that Jones would get injured.

Jordan Schafer – 5-for-6, 3 runs and a mention in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  It’s Friday, ya’ll!

Jeremy Guthrie – Left the start yesterday when his back went all spastic.  That sounds like an adjective my elementary school teachers used to describe me.

Zach Stewart – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Was called up to take Kyle Drabek’s spot in the rotation.  Stewart’s numbers this year in the minor leagues leave something to be desired.  Something like a better K-rate.  He’s a passable flyer in an AL-Only league and not kosher in mixed leagues, i.e., pass-over-able.

Jon Rauch – 0 IP, 2 ER.  The Blue Jays will be holding auditions for closer at the West Covina Mall this Saturday from 10 to 2.

Adam Lind – 2-for-4 and his 14th home run.  I drink Lind’s milkshake!

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Returned from the DL and went 1-for-4 in the three hole.  I had a friend who’s found great enjoyment in the three hole.  Personally, I don’t– Wait, what?  Oh, Nishioka.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  I look forward to you skimming it on your mobile phone while you go to the bathroom.

Michael Cuddyer – 2-for-4 with his 10th home run.  On Wednesday, he stole three bases.  On Tuesday, he hit another home run.  Finally, he’s hitting .643 in the last week.  For those who have him at 2nd base, you did well and I’m a little jealous.  Are you happy now?

Ryan Raburn – 1-for-3 with his 6th home run.  Why’d he hit a home run?  Because I finally dropped him in one league.  Alcides Escobar, you better keep stealing bases.

Grady Sizemore – 0-for-4.  I try not to talk about the same players every day because then it gets boring for both of us.  I’ve now gone over a month since my last Sizemore mention.  On May 12th, I told you to sell him.  Since then, he has 1 home run, zero steals and is batting .203.  I don’t think selling is an option anymore.  Now you have to start thinking about cutting bait.

Jayson Werth – 2nd game in a row with a home run.  Wanna have your mind blown?  Okay:  34/10/26/.240/9; 25/10/27/.292/2.  The 1st one is marginally better because of the steals, but when you consider draft cost… Well, the first one is Werth; the second one is Laynce Nix.  Of course, Espinosa has been better than both of them at middle infield, but no one wants to own him.

Brian Gordon – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks. Started in place of Colon, he’s a herbathrowdite that was recently in the Phillies minor league system.  He had Bugs Bunny-type numbers this year in Triple-A — 56:7 K:BB, 0.83 WHIP in 55 1/3 IP.  Those are the kind of numbers that give hope to Brian Anderson and Tony Pena Jr. with their position reassignment.  I wouldn’t touch Gordon in mixed leagues yet, but I would look at him in AL-Only leagues.  Maybe one day ESPN can do a movie on him starring Chaz Bono.

Chris Snyder – His wife was attacked in a traffic dispute.  In a related story, Scott Cousins’ wife ran over a pedestrian.

Clay Buchholz – Left his start yesterday with lower back stiffness, which is less awkward than lower front stiffness.

Jake Peavy – Looked great in his rehab start.  Better bring him up immediately before he gets injured again.

Zack Greinke – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 10 Ks.  His ERA is now up to 5.23.  BUY!  Seriously, don’t walk, run and buy him.  His K:BB is 70:9.  That’s a thing of beauty.  That’s in 53 1/3 IP.  Schnikes!  I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way.  Here’s Grey, here’s Grey going on a limb.  Snap or no snap?  No snap!

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Superb Lee.

Matt Garza – 6 IP, 5 ER and the conshellation win.  Any time you wanna pitch as well as your peripherals, Garza, feel free!

Gio Gonzalez – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Continues to be a must start at home and must take ulcer medicine because of his control issues.

Jose Lopez – 0-for-3.  Getting some starts at 3B for the Marlins as they long for the Jorge Cantu era.  They’ve even asked if he’ll change his name to Jose Cantulopez and answer to the nickname of “El Melon.”

Moneyball – I know, big fantasy news here!  Still, I’m giddy for this movie.  How could you not be?  It’s a movie that hinges on Scott Hatteberg.  A couple of thoughts on the trailer (which I’ve posted below).  Would’ve loved to been a fly on the wall for this pre-production conversation:  “We need an actor that can convincingly tell Brad Pitt he can’t pay retail prices for players?”  “Well, he’s gotta be nebbishy… Paul Giamatti?”  “Too old.  Too goy.”  “Hey, how about Jonah Hill?”  “Brilliant!”  Also, can’t wait for this scene in the movie:  “Who’s that sidearmin’ fella?”  “The name is Bradford.  Chad Bradford.”  Finally, this is the kind of movie that will have end titles about what happened after the movie ends.  Hope it reads something like this, “The A’s never did win a World Series and all of their relative success was due in large part to Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada and Jason Giambi — three juice heads.”

Toronto Blue Jays 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (28) | 2009 (19) | 2008 (25) | 2007 (25) | 2006 (25) | 2005 (15) | 2004 (8)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [85 – 77] AL East
AAA: [66 – 78] Pacific Coast League – Las Vegas
AA: [79 – 62] Eastern League – New Hampshire
A+: [72 – 67] Florida League – Dunedin
A: [70 – 69] Midwest League – Lansing
A(ss): [35 – 40] New York – Pennsylvania League – Auburn
R: [31-28] Gulf Coast League

The Run Down
My Blue Jays 2009 Minor League Review said, “[The] Blue Jays may be better than expected [in 2010]. However, there is a rather large “IF” on each of those players [to continue to produce in the future].” The player with “if” tags? Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, and Shawn Marcum. Three-fourth of the players listed struggled or were injured for most of the year. 2010 saw the Jays post a winning record (last one was in 2008). The Blue Jays were a running strikeout joke here at Razzball, but the Diamondbacks would have won that if they would have had any good fantasy hitters this year. Surprise years from Jose Bautista, John Buck, and a bounce back year from Vernon Wells and Shawn Marcum (injury bounce back) helped the Jays in a brutal division. Youngsters, Ricky Romero progressed very well in 2010, Brett Cecil improved upon his rookie year, and Brandon Morrow had a terrific year posting a 10.95 K/9 – if he was qualified, would have been the highest strikeout rate for a starter. Although the Blue Jays had a winning major league record, they did not have the infusion of rookies or prospects this year as they did in 2009. Not entirely a huge issue, nevertheless, an indication of the lack of a deep talent pool. Granted, the trade of Roy Halladay definitely brought back some great talent (Drabek, d’Arnaud, and Brett Wallace in a side swap for Michael Taylor), there wasn’t a major league ready prospect to start the 2010 season. One surprising name upon perusing the Jays minor league system, Adam Loewen, the former pitcher from Baltimore. Loewen is currently a Blue Jays outfielder, putting his time in at Double-A. He hit 17 homers and looks to be in the Rick Ankiel mold, except Loewen’s pitching problem was injury-based and not a command issue.

Graduating Prospects
None

Arizona Fall League Players -Phoenix Desert Dogs
AFL Rosters
Pitchers: Matt Daly (RHP), Alana Farina (RHP), Dan Farquhar (RHP), TBA (P)
Hitters: Adeiny Hechevarria (SS), Mike McDade (1B), Eric Thames (OF)

Players of Interest for 2011
Hitters
Adeiny Hechavarria | SS | D.o.B: 4-15-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .242/.272/.333 | 414 AB | 26 XBH | 4 Hr | .091 ISO | 13/3 SB/CS | 65:17 K:BB
Signed a 4 year, $10 million deal in April. According to some sources, he was the best Cuban shortstop, ahead of prized Boston Red Sox, Jose Iglesias (who had to play second when they were on the same team). Covers a lot of ground, great quickness, and stellar footwork. Has some power but it is his defense that will make him reach the majors sooner rather than later. Baseball America and John Sickels 2010 handbooks did not have Hechavarria listed. During his first year of professional ball in the USA, Hechavarria struggled at High-A but with a .222 BABIP; Double-A was a different story with a .307 BABIP and a slashline of .273/.305/.360 indicating a light hitting middle infielder with on-base issues. Watch him play at Double-A next year and judge accordingly for his MLB ETA.

#4 David Cooper | 1B | D.o.B: 2-12-87 | Stats (AA): .257/.327/.442 | 498 AB | 51 XBH | 20 Hr | .185 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 74:52 K:BB | .266 BABIP
Still projected as the Blue Jays first basemen of the future (as he was last year too), Cooper was underwhelming in his second take facing Double-A pitching. Blame Brett Wallace for stealing a potential Triple-A cup-of-joe, granted, Cooper didn’t blow away the opposition. His season was still adequate and should still be considered a potential fit at first for his BABIP was unlucky (.266) showing that his slashline could still improve. The power is sufficient and has improved from his 2009 season and the strikeout to walk ratio remains a strong attribute. A 2009 Honorable Mention has become a strong play for 2011. Just wait to see how he handles spring training and the early season. Could be the 2011 Ike Davis.

#2 J.P. Arencibia | C | D.o.B: 1-5-87 | Stats (AAA): .301/.359/.629 | 412 AB | 67 XBH | 32 Hr | .328 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 85:35 K:BB | .306 BABIP
Read his Scouting the Unknown article for more expansive coverage. Also, I rated him as the number eight Fantasy Baseball Prospect back in late July. A quick quote from the 2009 blurb for the lazy reader because the Scouting the Unknown article says the same thing at some point, “The power is legit, the strikeouts are scary and the lack of walks is more of a turn off than Joan Rivers. Playing the Pacific Coast League may have inflated his numbers a wee-bit, however, expect to see him in the majors at some point in early summer 2010. Keep expectations in check, but if you need a catcher, plug him in and see what he can do.”

#25 Brad Emaus | 2B | D.o.B: 3-28-86 | Stats (AA/AAA): .290/.397/.476 | 445 AB | 50 XBH | 15 Hr | .186 ISO | 13/2 SB/CS | 69:81 K:BB | .281 BABIP (AA) .327 BABIP (AAA)
Who knows when another Aaron Hill injury is going to happen, but Emaus may be the beneficiary of said injury. Doesn’t have great tools in any area, but is a savvy player, or if you’re Baseball America, “has high marks for his moxie and approach to the game … a consistent swing and [gap power] … good plate discipline … quality at-bats … was over anxious in 2009 … 10 to 15 homer potential … defense improving.” Sounds like Dustin Pedoria on the high end or Orlando Hudson on the low.

Darin Mastroianni | CF | D.o.B: 8-26-85 | Stats (AA): .301/.390/.398 | 525 AB | 36 XBH | 4 Hr | .097 ISO | 46/10 SB/CS | 96:77 K:BB | .358 BABIP
Looking for steals, waiting for one of the Jays outfielders to be injured or not produce in 2011 (I’m pointing at you Jose), here in your potential Drew Stubbs of 2011. See 2009 blurb, “FROM 2009 (Honorable Mention):.No power to speak of here. Mastroianni is all speed, (70 steals in 85 attempts) and it’s a good thing he keeps the ball on the ground too. If your a firm believer in SAGNOF, then Mastroianni may be someone you steal on the waivers if he gets called up in 2010. But that is a big IF.” That “big IF” is much smaller for the 2011 season, especially if you replace 2010 with 2011. Triple-A is in his future.

#18 Eric Thames | LF | D.o.B: 11-10-86 | Stats (AA): .288/.370/.526 | 496 AB | 58 XBH | 27 Hr | 8/5 SB/CS | 121:50 K:BB | .327 BABIP
His draft stock fell when he tore his quadricep muscle in his right left before the 2008 draft. He has plus bat speed, great plate discipline and a good swing according to Baseball America; he has average speed, an average arm and should play left field because his defense isn’t great. A strong person with a “rock-solid” body helps too. I see an outfielder with the potential to go 30/10 with a solid average (think .275 to .300). Probably won’t get a chance until September to prove himself.

Pitchers
#2 (PHI)Kyle Drabek | RHP | D.o.B: 12-8-87 | Stats (AA): 7.3 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 162 IP | 2.94 ERA | 3.87 FIP | 1.20 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 7.0 H/9 | .260 BABIP
I may be rather harsh, but let me be frank to start, Drabek is a great talent with tremendous upside, but he isn’t a flamethrower and won’t draw rave reviews everywhere you look. His 179 innings (including his three major league starts) in 2010 isn’t a red flag when you consider he threw 158 innings in 2009. Pre-season Baseball America ranked Drabek as the 25th overall prospect. Quoting last year’s review, “He possesses a low to mid 90′s fastball (top 95 mph), a sharp and biting curve, and a “work in progress” change-up. Due to the heavy influx of pitchers at the top end of the Jays system (Romero, Rzepczynski, Cecil, Richmond, David Purcey, Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan), Drabek wont be rushed. The earliest, June. Most likely, August/September.” I got the ETA right, just wasn’t as excited as the experts. Much the same holds true from this past season, but his curve isn’t just “sharp” and “biting”, it’s “a 70” on the 20-80 scale. Meaning it is tremendous, fantastic, you get the point. I like his potential and he pitched fairly well in his 17 major league innings. Just don’t expect a 10 K/9, something more along the lines of 7.5 K/9 should be more accurate.

#1 Zach Stewart | RHP | D.o.B: 9-28-86 | Stats (AA): 7.0 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 132 1/3 IP | 3.63 ERA | 4.18 FIP | 1.36 WHIP | .9 Hr/9 | 8.6 H/9 | .298 BABIP
From 2009 Minor League Review, “A key component in the Scott Rolen trade, Stewart has a mid 90′s fastball (93-96 mph), a power slider and a “promising” change-up. His fastball has natural sink to it, laminated by his high ground-ball rate (53%).” Rated as the number one prospect in the Jays system before the Halladay trade, Stewart didn’t have a dominating season at Double-A. His numbers were uninspiring. John Sickels said it best in his recap of the Top 50 Pitcher Prospects for 2010 , “I thought he’d do better, but it was still a good season.” I concur. The Reds used him as a reliever with some success, but the Jays want him in the rotation. Should get a shot in the majors at some point in 2011.

#14 Danny Farquhar | RHP | D.o.B: 2-17-87 | Stats (AA): 9.3 K/9 | 4.9 BB/9 | 76 2/3 IP | 3.52 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.20 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 5.9 H/9 | .239 BABIP
Why reinvent the wheel, from the 2009 Minor League Review, (he was a honorable mention), “Yet another Blue Jays pitcher who works the ground balls (51.6%). I mention Farquhar because … a deadly fastball that sits between 92 and 94 mph, an average curve, and a cutter – and that is just from a three-quarter slot. He also can throw a 89 to 91 mph fastball with tons of action and a “frisbee action” slider from a below-sidearm angle. Used as a starter in college, the Jays like what they see from him as a reliever. Farquhar could become Lord Farquaad of the Jays ‘pen by 2012, and a stellar mid-to-late relief role by 2011.” My humor is lame, but my predictions remain the same, except it’s possible to see him in 2011. His fastball has improved to 93 to 94 mph topping out at 95 to 96 mph. The 89 to 91 mph fastball in the quote is a two-seamer with good sink. All of his pitches have good action. He struggles with control due to the different arm slots.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#4 (PHI) Travis d’Arnaud | C | D.o.B: 2-10-89 | Stats (A+): .259/.315/.411 | 263 AB | 27 XBH | 6 Hr | .152 ISO | 3/1 SB/CS | 63:20 K:BB | .312 BABIP
Not quite the season the Blue Jays brass was hoping for. To quote the 2009 blurb about d’Arnaud because not much has changed besides getting one year older, “A fixture in the Halladay trade, d’Arnaud was the second rated catcher in the Phillies minors behind Lou Marson. D’Arnaud has a good arm, above average catching skills, a gap-power swing … In his first full season, he played fairly well. His average is more like .275 with a normal BABIP, however, that doesn’t mean he’ll blast off next year. He’s good, just a few years away. Plus, the Jays have JP Arencibia.”

#6 (PHI)Anthony Gose | CF | D.o.B: 8-10-90 | Stats (A+ -2 teams): .262/.332/.393 | 512 AB | 40 XBH | 7 Hr | .131 ISO | 45/32 SB/CS | 132:45 K:BB | ~.338 BABIP
Gose was traded straight up for Brett Wallace. His scouting report is unchanged from 2009, “ 60 yards in 6.5 seconds. Plus-plus arm in center. 76 steals … Some scouts think his swing could produce 20 homers in a season, but no time soon. Steals, man, that is what Mr. Gose can provide, and awesome defense.” Much is the same, except managers aren’t going to let him steal when he is caught nearly half the time (45 steals in 77 attempts). The strikeouts are going to become an issue if can’t get on base. He did hit 13 triples to go along with his 20 doubles and seven home runs, showing off his some of the potential power and speed. Double-A is going to be a true test of his abilities. At just 20, there is plenty of time for development. Don’t quit on this youngster like everyone is doing with Fernando Martinez (NYM).

#17 Tyler Pastornicky | SS | D.o.B: 12-13-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .257/.343/.373 | 421 AB | 30 XBH | 9 Hr | .116 ISO | 35/9 SB/CS | 71:55 K:BB | .288 BABIP
He was a late scratch in the Blue Jays 2009 Minor League Review, and this year, I had no choice. Plus, his talents flowed naturally after Anthony Gose. SPEED!. He had 57 Steals in 2009 and 35 this year. He plays good defense, is an above average runner, but lacks power. Could be a top-of-the-order middle infielder. Nothing special, but SAGNOF isn’t supposed to be special.

Pitchers
#5 Henderson Alvarez | RHP | D.o.B: 4-18-90 | Stats (A+): 6.2 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 112 1/3 IP | 4.33 ERA | 3.88 FIP | 1.46 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 11 H/9 | .347 BABIP
Alvarez is a groundball pitcher who doesn’t overpower anyone with his 86 to 89 MPH fastball on bad days and a 89 to 92 MPH fastball on his good days, his changeup is his best pitch and it has splitter-like action. He also throws a “three-quarter” breaking ball. He has good command of his pitches, but has little room for error. This past year he seemed to be hittable, albeit slightly unlucky. His strikeouts are vomit-inducing. Overall, Alvarez still has a couple years until the majors are truly in his sight.

Joel Carreno | RHP | D.o.B: 3-7-87 | Stats (A+): 11.3 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 137 2/3 IP | 3.73 ERA | 2.36 FIP | 1.29 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 9.0 H/9 | .392 BABIP
I couldn’t find a detailed scouting report, but the strikeouts are awesome, the command is great, the FIP is nearly a full run and a half better than his ERA and he was tremendously unlucky (.392 BABIP). Could be a surprise ranked prospect in 2011 scouting handbooks.

Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (19) | 2008 (25) | 2007 (25) | 2006 (25) | 2005 (15) | 2004 (8)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [75 – 87] AL East
AAA: [71 – 73] Pacific Coast League
AA: [64 – 78] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 67] Florida League
A: [54 – 84] Midwest League
A(ss): [29 – 49] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [30-28] Gulf League

The Run Down
The recent trade of Roy Halladay has made this piece a bit more interesting. Clearly, the Blue Jays are in “rebuilding” mode. They definitely received good talent in return, and especially [near] major league ready talent – namely Wallace and Drabek. With Adam Lind breaking out, Aaron Hill finally performing up to expectations, Travis Snider holding his own in the majors, Shawn Marcum set to return from injury (Tommy John), as is Dustin McGowan (bum shoulder and knee), the Blue Jays may be better than expected. However, there is a rather large “IF” on each of those players. Granted, the Jays have restricted mobility in the free agent market to improve their team, but there are a few players that may make an impact in the majors in 2010. Additionally, the 2009 starting rotation saw four rookies make large contributions (Romero, Cecil, Rzepczynski, and Richmond) and one that called up mid-season (Brad Mills) to keep your eyes on. (Important to note, none of the graduating rookie pitchers increased their innings pitched by more than 30 innings.) Even with that many rookies, replacing Halladay’s presence, innings and experience is going to be extremely difficult to find. Not wanting to compare, but the Blue Jays are going to be relying on youngsters much like the Florida Marlins do in 2010.

Graduating Prospects
#1- OF – Travis Snider; #3 – P – Brett Cecil; #8 – P – Ricky Romero; #9 – P – Marc Rzepczynski; #20 – P – Scott Richmond

Arizona Fall League Players -Phoenix Desert Dogs
Pitchers – Reidier Gonzalez, #15 Robert Ray
Hitters – (C) AJ Jimenez, (2B) #10 Brad Emaus, (OF) Adam Loewen

Players of Interest
Due to the recent trade, the rankings before a player, unless otherwise noted, are the Blue Jays rankings.

Hitters
#2 (St.L) Brett Wallace | 1B/3B | AA/AAA | 22 | .293/.367/.455 | 532 AB | 26 2B | 20 HR | .162 ISO | 116:47 K:BB | .338 BABIP | 51.7 GB% | 19.6 LD% | 28.7 FB% | .9.4 IF/F
Traded again this year, Wallace’s defense is now coming into question. With Edwin Encarnacion manning third and Lyle Overbay manning first, I am not sure what the Jays plan for Wallace is going to be. Back in August, Scouting the Unknown article detailed his specifics out. Don’t be surprised to watch him play in left field (with Snider manning the other corner). Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play half a season at Triple-A first before a June call up.

#7 (PHI) Travis d’Arnaud | C | A | 20 | .255/.319/.419 | 482 AB | 38 2B | 13 HR | .164 ISO | 75:41 K:BB | .279 BABIP | .336 wOBA | 40.2 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 45.3 FB%
A fixture in the Halladay trade, d’Arnaud was the second rated catcher in the Phillies minors behind Lou Marson. D’Arnaud has a good arm, above average catching skills, a gap-power swing, and quoting Baseball America, “… could become trade fodder if he continues his offensive development [due to Marson].” Well, that’s exactly what he became. In his first full season, he played fairly well. His average is more like .275 with a normal BABIP, however, that doesn’t mean he’ll blast off next year. He’s good, just a few years away. Plus, the Jays have JP Arencibia …

#2 JP Arencibia | C | AAA | 23 | .236/.284/.444 | 466 AB | 32 2B | 21 HR | .208 ISO | 114:26 K:BB | .269 BABIP | .316 wOBA | 30.2 GB% | 17 LD% | 52.5 FB%
Arencibia was considered the catcher of the future, but with the d’Arnaud acquisition and the signing of John Buck, that may be in question. His slash line is destroyed by a low batting average on balls in play (.269), albeit he hit a ton of fly balls (52.5%). The power is legit, the strikeouts are scary and the lack of walks is more of a turn off than Joan Rivers. Playing the Pacific Coast League may have inflated his numbers a wee bit, however, expect to see him in the majors at some point in early summer 2010. Keep expectations in check, but if you need a catcher, plug him in and see what he can do. It’s worth a chance over anyone not named Mauer, McCann, or Martinez.

Brian Dopirak | 1B | AA/AAA | 25 | .316/.371/.549 | 546 AB | 42 2B | 27 HR | .232 ISO | 119:48 K:BB | .366 BABIP | 43.5 GB% | 21.1 LD% | 35.4 FB%
Not a sexy prospect by any means, Dopirak was acquired in 2008 from the Cubs where he couldn’t hit the moon if it was falling, exploded for the Jays. He was recently added to the 40-man roster, meaning no one could take him in the Rule-5 draft, which they easily could have. Not that first base is an extremely weak point for the Jays, but Overbay isn’t necessarily locked to keep his spot. Dopirak could provide some sneaky power in the Jays line-up in 2010.

Pitchers
#5 (PHI) Kyle Drabek | RHP | A+/AA | 21 | 8.5 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 158 IP | 3.19 ERA | 3.26 FIP | 1.21 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .305 BABIP | 43.6 GB% | 12 LD% | 39.4 FB%
It was either him or Dominic Brown (and possibly Happ, but don’t get me started) that the Jays could’ve received in the Halladay trade. Coming of Tommy John surgery in 2007, Drabek pitched his first full season in the minors (2008 he pitched in 54 innings). He possesses a low to mid 90′s fastball (top 95 mph), a sharp and biting curve, and a “work in progress” change-up. Due to the heavy influx of pitchers at the top end of the Jays system (Romero, Rzepczynski, Cecil, Richmond, David Purcey, Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan), Drabek wont be rushed. The earliest, June. Most likely, August/September.

Henderson Alvarez | RHP | A | 19 | 6.7 K/9 | 1.4 BB/9 | 124 1/3 IP | 3.47 ERA | 2.43 FIP | 1.13 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | .307 BABIP | 51.4 GB% | 10.4 LD% | 33.8 FB%
An extreme ground ball pitcher, Alvarez is the Jays top Venezuelan prospect. He has a low 90′s fastball that tops at 94, a slurve and an average at best change up. Considered to have a power arm, Alvarez still needs to harness some of his talent and not just “throw.” However, it seems like this year he has figured it out. Not a great strikeout pitcher, but his control is stellar. Look for him to reach Double-A in 2010 and possibly a September call up if he has no injuries.

#15(CIN) Zach Stewart | RHP | A+/AA/AAA | 22 | 8.0 K/9 | 2.7 | 105 IP | 1.89 ERA | 3.04 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | .334 BABIP | 53 GB% | 21 LD% | 20.1 FB%
A key component in the Scott Rolen trade, Stewart has a mid 90′s fastball (93-96 mph), a power slider and a “promising” change-up. His fastball has natural sink to it, laminated by his high ground-ball rate (53%). Not to many hitters put good wood on his pitches. I would imagine Stewart to start in Triple-A this year as he didn’t throw consistently at each stop (he played A+ and AA for the Reds).

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#5 David Cooper | 1B | AA | 22 | .258/.340/.389 | 473 AB | 32 2B | 10 HR | .131 ISO | 95:59 K:BB | .302 BABIP | .335 wOBA | 42.4 GB% | 17.5 LD% | 40.1 FB%
Didn’t have a great year. However, he is the projected starting first baseman by 2012 according to Baseball America. Keep an eye on him, he’s a better hitter (strikezone/plate discpline) than his numbers lead one to believe.

Johermyn Chavez | LF | A | 20 | .283/.346/.474 | 22 2B | 21 HR | .191 ISO | 10/6 SB | 133:40 K:BB | .350 BABIP | .371 wOBA | 40.4 GB% | 10.3 LD% | 49.3 FB%
The low line-drive hitting percentage (10.3%) and high strikeouts (133) lead me to believe that he won’t repeat these type of numbers again in 2010 at High-A or Double-A. He is one of the Venezuelans I was talking about earlier, and he does have the potential and talent to prove my prediction wrong.

Darin Mastroianni | CF/LF | A+/AA | 23 | .297/.398/.364 | 478 AB | 21 2B | 1 HR | .067 ISO | 70/15 SB/CS | 83:76 K:BB | .335 BABIP | 50.2 GB% | 11.1 LD% | 38 FB%
No power to speak of here. Mastroianni is all speed, and it’s a good thing he keeps the ball on the ground too. If you’re a firm believer in SAGNOF, then Mastroianni may be someone you steal on the waivers if he gets called up in 2010. But that is a big IF.

Pitchers
Tim Collins | LHP | A+/AA | 19 | 13.5 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 77 1/3 IP | 2.91 ERA | 2.34 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .337 BABIP | 40 GB% | 16.2 LD% | 36.8 FB%
He hasn’t pitched many innings (150) in the minors in the last two years, but Collins is in the mold of a reliever. He should start at Double-A again this year. If he pitches well again in 2010, he could be a sneaky sleeper in 2011.

#14 Danny Farquhar | RHP | A+/AA | 22 | 10.6 K/9 | 5.9 BB/9 | 62 2/3 IP | 1.87 ERA | 3.17 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | .277 BABIP | 51.6 GB%| 12.3 LD% | 31.6 FB%
Yet another Blue Jays pitcher who works the ground balls (51.6%). I mention Farquhar because he has a killer last name and a deadly fastball that sits between 92 and 94 mph, an average curve, and a cutter – and that is just from a three-quarter slot. He also can throw a 89 to 91 mph fastball with tons of action and a “frisbee action” slider from a below-sidearm angle. Used as a starter in college, the Jays like what they see from him as a reliever. Farquhar could become Lord Farquaad of the Jays ‘pen by 2012, and a stellar mid-to-late relief role by 2011.