Fantasy Baseball Advice

On July 16th, Padres GM, Kevin Towers, said there’s a 50-50 chance that Jake Peavy would pitch again. Turned out there was a 50-50 chance that he was lying.  On July 16th, Peavy’s boot came off and his ankle is healthy.  Peavy now says he’ll pitch again this year.  Oh, okay.  Peavy is the Padres ace, i.e., they’re not going to mess with bringing him back to make sure they win 60 games instead of 58. Then consider he’s not coming back until September at the earliest, so you’re looking at a guy that might pitch five games.  As my dead, Jewish grandmother would’ve said, big whoop.  I know it sucks you lost Peavy, but now you’re compounding your misfortune by wasting a roster spot on him.  If you don’t have a DL spot for him, give Peavy the boot.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Josh Whitesell – Will be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  I’ll give you a teaser.  Later on today, I’ll say, “Whitesell doesn’t have…”  Ah, what doesn’t he have?  Power?  A middle name?  Feet?  You’ll have to wait to find out.

B.J. Ryan – Signed by the Cubs.  B.J. becomes a LOOGY.  Hmm… That sounds wrong.

Raul Ibanez – 2 HRs in his first two 2nd half ABs.  In my fantasy baseball top 100 for 2009, I pointed out how he’s a 2nd half hitter (#34 for the time-deprived).

Derek Lowe – 6 IP, 3 ER.  It’s little consolation, but he shouldn’t have given up the three 4th inning runs.  Just bad defense.

Rafael Soriano – Save yesterday.  Soriano’s putting together a year like Waking Joey Devine did last year.  In related news, Gonzalez is battling elbow tendinitis.

Oliver Perez – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Could throw 200 scoreless innings and you’d pick him up and he’d give up 8 runs in two-thirds of an inning for the first start with you.  Guaranteed.

Jeff Francoeur – 0-for-4, 1 RBI in his return to Atlanta.  In honor of Frenchy’s return, Chipper swung at a ball in the dirt.

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.  Deja vu?  Nope, deja vs. the Mariners.

Rich Harden – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  Since it took the Nats to bring out Harden’s best start in almost a month, I wouldn’t go as far to say he’s back.

Edwin Encarnacion – HR yesterday.  Now has two homers in his last five games.  Might have 10 more homers in his bat for the rest of the season.  At corner, that’s ownable.

Homer Bailey – 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  You trusted him, he shit your house.

Jamie Moyer – 7 IP, 0 ER, only two baserunners.  Considering most of you were in diapers when he started pitching, it’s pretty incredible what he’s doing now that he’s in diapers.

Dallas Braden – 5 IP, 6 ER.  You know when you have two or more mediocre starts going and there’s that one critical start that can make or break your whole staff’s night?  That was Braden on a few teams for me (as I had Wolf, Gaudin, Cook and Wandy also going).  With a good start, I could’ve went to respectability and a low 1 WHIP and a mid-2 ERA.  We might need a glossary term for that critical start.  I’ll open it up to the Razzpound for suggestions.

Ervin Santana – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 1 matchup with the A’s.  There’s worst fliers to take if Ervin’s healthy.  I can’t think of any right now because I’m on some serious cold medicine. (The flu in the summer sucks.  I blame the pierced, Goth kid who sneezed on me at Bruno.  Teach me to leave my office.  Seriously, if I’m dead by Sunday from The Swine, frequent commenter, Mr Baseball, may be doing your roundups.  You’ve been warned.)  I’d pickup Ervin for his next start vs. the Royals, but it’s risky until we see back-to-back quality starts.

Chad Gaudin/Aaron Cook – 11 IP, 2 ER, 16 Ks.  Doesn’t take a ‘pert to tell ya, start anyone in Petco, but Josh Geer.

Ichiro Suzuki – While in St. Louis, Ichiro went to visit the grave of George Sisler, whose single-season hit record Ichiro broke in 2004.  Jose Reyes should go visit the graves of all the fantasy baseball teams he killed this year.

Jay Bruce owners got their first bit of good news from him as he fractured his wrist.  This is like when you’re in a terrible relationship that you can’t get out of because you’re scared to be alone, then the other person comes home and says they’re leaving you.  In 12 teams or shallower and non-keeper leagues, I’d remove Jay Bruce from the salamander and chuck him.  Even if he comes back, he wasn’t hitting when his wrist bone was connected to his forearm bone.  As for keepers, I thought Bruce would be a good sleeper candidate for next year.  Now with the nature of his injury, I’m not so sure.  If he needs surgery, it’ll be a much longer process. (When this post went to the (Word)presses, they weren’t sure if Bruce needed surgery.)  To go out on a limb — something Bruce can’t do so well right now — I’m calling Jay Bruce a top fantasy sleeper for 2011 — when we’ll all be taking flying cars to our draft.  Chris Dickerson, who had the start and a steal yesterday, gets an added boost as he’ll see time against righties.  That’s until Dusty grows bored of him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tim Stauffer – 7 IP, 2 ER on Saturday vs. the Giants.  He’s the newest HodgePadre.

Jonathan Sanchez – Last no-hitter for the Giants was John Montefusco.  Before picking up Sanchez, think about everyone that picked up Montefusco after his no-hitter.  (Okay, there was no such thing as fantasy baseball when Montefusco pitched his, but I think you get my point.)  If Sanchez had pitched a two-hitter instead of a no-hitter, would you even be considering him?  Things that make you say hmm…

Barry Zito – 4 1/3 IP, 9 ER.  As the BBWAA hold a caucus at the All-Star Game about giving Zito’s Cy Young to Pedro Martinez.

John Bowker – 2-for-4, HR yesterday.  I promise this is my last Giants player blurb.  Bochy is supposedly going to play Bowker every day.  Bowker’s proven more than capable in the minors.  This year’s Triple-A numbers are 63/17/63/.347/10 with more walks than strikeouts.  In NL-Only leagues, you should absolutely grab him.  In mixed leagues, I’d wait a few unless you’re absolutely hurting for power.

Jack Hannahan – Joel Hanrahan’s half-brother was traded to the Seattle Mariners.  You may ask yourself, why do I need to know this?  You don’t.  And the days go by, water flowing underground…

Jeff Francoeur – Traded to the Mets for Ryan Church.  Maybe the change of scenery is all he needed, but for right now I still think Frenchy’s *pinkie to mouth* toast.

Marc Rzepczynski – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks, 3 walks.  Surprisingly, you can spell Rzepczynski without two BBs, but he can’t pitch without them.

Ryan Church – The recession is hitting everyone, and now the Braves will only carry left-handed scissors.  I wouldn’t bother with Church, except on short schedule days when you’re just playing matchups.

James Shields – 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 2 Ks.  Why can’t he hold a damn lead?  Seriously.  What the eff?  And two Ks?  Who are you, Joel Pineiro?

Brett Anderson – Left after four innings because his back stiffened up.  A’s are saying he should be fine and Steven Tyler’s saying he’ll be F-I-N-E.

Brandon Inge – 2 HRs yesterday, now has 21 on the year.  I guess 35 homers from your catcher slot bores you.

Josh Whitesell – Tony Clark’s release means two things.  1) Josh Whitesell should get the call-up.  He’s a decent flier in NL-Only play.  2) The Diamondbacks are now without a center for their pickup basketball games.

Ryan Ludwick – 5-for-9 in the doubleheader and 2 HRs, then robotically walked onto the field saying, “I must kill the Queen.”

Joe Mauer – 0-for-5 as the Twins scored 13.  Ticker Tease!

Brooks Conrad – HR yesterday.  Has 2 homers since his callup.  He’s a poor man’s Dan Uggla.  Has some modest pop, no average and Bobby Cox seems content to play him.

Manny Acta – Fired as Nats manager.  Guess you can’t fire a whole franchise.

Mike Napoli – HR on Saturday as he plays every day at DH while Vlad figures out why he has Andre Dawson’s knees.

Clay Buchholz – Will start Friday, but the Sawx plan on sending him down right afterwards.  I believe them.

Josh Beckett – 9 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, only 3 baserunners for his 11th win.  He was my preseason AL Cy Young prediction.  At the break, picks don’t look awful.  (Just ignore any mention of Alfonso Soriano.)

Garrett Jones – Hit his 5th homer yesterday.  That’s his fifth homer in 11 games.  That includes a three homer weekend.  He also has 3 steals while batting .310.  What else is in Garrett Jones’s locker?  He bats third and there’s really no one on the Pirates to challenge him for that spot if he hits…. Or even if he doesn’t hit.

Ryan Doumit – Returned from the DL.  People are clamoring for Doumit like he’s going to save their team.  Last year was the outlier.  He’s worth a flier because he’s a catcher, but he may only hit 7 homers with a .260 average the rest of the way.  Not to mention, he’s injury-prone.

J.P. Howell – 1 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  Kazaam!

Yovani Gallardo – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Has now thrown 9 walks in the last 10 innings.  As I pointed out a few weeks ago, he’s been pitching closer to a 4 ERA than a 3.  Trust me, I’m not thrilled either.

Clayton Kershaw – 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 hits, 5 walks.  Over the course of 99 and 2/3 innings this year, he’s issued 59 walks.  Okay, hotshot, how many more hits than walks has he given up?  A) 1-10 B) 11-20 C) 21-30 D) None of the Above E) Colonel Mustard.  If you guessed A, you looked up his stats pretty quick, cheater.  He’s given up 9 more hits than walks.  I don’t feel like doing the research, but has anyone in the history of baseball ever thrown more than 100 innings and had less than 10 more walks than hits while maintaining a sub-3.50 ERA?  Betcha Jayson Stark or some doode wearing a bow tie at Elias Sports Bureau knows.

So this is a fun story for you.  When I was a kid, I played 2nd base.  Was one of those pesky slap hitters that annoyed the pitchers.  I led the way for Orlando Hudson.  Call me Orlando Oldson.  At the age of twelve, I never struckout once.  All season.  That’s how Oldson did.  Then when I turned thirteen, I sucked.  I couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn.  If they didn’t have to play every kid, I would’ve never seen any PT.  At one point, I had a friend promise to throw the ball right down the middle just so I could get one hit for the year.  And that was what I finished with.  One hit.  So wha’ happened?  Where did Oldson disappear to?  Well, going into that year, I discovered girls.  And all of their fleshy parts.  But I also needed glasses.  Who was I?  Chris Sabo?  Chris Sabo got laid once.  And he paid for it.  So I took the easy way out and never wore my glasses.  My baseball career paid for it big time.  But I touched a boob!  This brings me to Brian McCann.  He’s supposed to be returning.  Stat, doc.  You know what catchers need?  Rest.  You know what McCann’s had a lot of?  Mmm-hmm.  See where I’m going with this?  Of course you do.  You gots smarts!  So McCann had a terrible first month of April.  Tizz-errible.  Well, he couldn’t see like Oldson and his luck (BABIP) was in the shizzer too.  Now as long as he’s not embarrassed to wear glasses around Frenchy, he should be fine.  So potatoes to chips, he’s still a guy that can hit 20 HRs and bat .290.  Buy, snitches!  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Josh Whitesell – Starting the Buys with a -Sell?  Oh, Grey! Lots of Ks in the minors for Whitesell, but also a solid OBP.  Did someone say Dunn?  No?  I thought I heard that.  No?  Good, because that would be oversellling -Sell.

Chris Coghlan – I love the ‘lins!  I really do.  They have no problem promoting anyone.  So Coghlan can play at the hot corner, 2nd base and the outfield.  My guess is he’ll primarily see time at 3rd base so they can bench the guy who’s playing there now that is actually a pinch runner.  He could spell Maybin and Uggla on occasion.  Coghlan, besides having the weirdest name to spell outside of Buehrle, can steal bases and has a bit of power.  Think 15 HRs, 25 steals.  The steals could come easier at first.  He’s a must pursue in NL-Only.  But because his position is shallow, I’d immediately look at him in deep mixed leagues.

Juan Pierre – SAGNOF!

Michael Bourn – See 1/18th of an inch above.

Alexei Ramirez – Now you can get him for even cheaper as his owners begin to panic at The (Jayson) Nix Experiment™.  I still believe he’ll come around.

Elvis Andrus – Has been batting 2nd recently.  That’s a boon to his value.  (A boon is a positive, but Andrus is in the Buy section so context clues should help you there.)

Chris Ray – He will eventually lead the Orioles in saves.  Sure, that may only be 12 saves…

Andrew Bailey – The A’s are saying he’s going to be looked at for the closer role.  Honestly, you don’t even need to know if he’s any good to pick him up if he could be the closer, but he is good.

Mark Melancon – Mo’s Better Meaty Meat Shoulder is hurting.  Melancon could see some saves short term if Mariano’s hurting. (UPDATE:  In a bizarre move, the Yanks optioned Melancon to the minors right after this was posted.  Guess they have Mo faith than I.)

John Grabow - Capps has a minor elbow issue.  Are pitchers ever okay when they have anything wrong with their elbow?  I see a trip to the Disgraceful List in Capps’s future.

Scott Hairston – Hitting 3rd for the Padres.  Faint endorsement for Hairston, major indictment of the Padres.

Jesus Guzman – With Aurilla and Ishikawa’s careers in the toilet and nobody flushing, how long until Guzman floats to the surface?

Jimmy Rollins – Sitting on a 13/1/7/.213/1 line.  Wheels have come off Rollins, fo’ diggity.  Unless he has a mysterious ankle injury that he’s not talking about, he’ll get better.

SELL

Jair Jurrjens – His K/BB rate is terrible, and his ERA will regress. But ya’ll didn’t think Jar-Jar would give you a 2.00 ERA all year anyway, did you?  Don’t trade him for a bag of boiled peanuts, but I’d explore options.  As they don’t say, the best is not yet to come.

Scott Kazmir – It seems like he’s headed for Junksville.  In my top 20 starter for 2009 post, I put Kazmir in a tier of pitchers I would never own.  Unfortunately, I co-drafted with Rudy and have Kazmir on one team.  *shakes fist at sky*  Rudy!

Jeff Weaver – Make sure when looking at trade offers you’re not thrown by the ol’ Je. Weaver trick.

Omar Infante – Hey, he’s playing! But, hey, he sucks.  Oh.

Scott Richmond – If you can pawn him off for any piece whatsoever, do it.  He’s really not this good.  In fact, there’s a good chance he’s going to be awful.

Chad Tracy – With the recall of Josh Whitesell, Tracy’s time is getting pinched.

Chris Dickerson – Losing time to Laynce Nix.  Wow, this was a big week in the Nix household.  BTW, what’s with the Y’s in their first names?  Layme.

Dallas Braden – Has been solid so far with a 2.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.  Whoa.  1.39 WHIP is smoke.  Yup, there’s a ‘too many walks’ fire burning in 3 of the last 4 starts.  A bottle of Liquid Paper may get dumped on his ERA any start now.

Manny Ramirez – A female fertility drug?  Even as he breaks our hearts, he makes us smile.  Now don’t sell him too cheaply, but I’d explore options.  Remember, by the time Manny returns, he may be in his 2nd trimester.