Fantasy Baseball Advice

Pinstripes Slimming CC’s Numbers

June 22, 2009 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 57 Comments →

CC Sabathia left his start with biceps tightness.  Or is it bicep?  Hmm…  Either way, it’s not great to hear about an arm issue with your fantasy ace.  Right now they’re saying no tests are even necessary.  Give me two hundred CCs of a White Russian and I’m asking this, you pay one hundred trillion dollars for a player and then you don’t send him for tests when he hurts his bicep(s)?  Are they joking?  Seriously, is this Candid Camera?  I thought I saw my Adam Lambert poster’s eyes move.  Is there a camera behind there?  Send me a signal, throw me a line.  Hopefully, tests aren’t necessary because it’s so obviously not a problem.  They don’t need to administer tests for how Sabathia feels about his new home park, The Jetstream.  To the left, to the left… Now, up, baby, up… He has a 3.99 ERA at home and 3.35 away.  His 6 K/9 is more troubling.  That would be the lowest mark of his career.  Even last year in April when he was struggling, he was K’ing more than one batter per inning.  Hopefully in the 2nd half of the year he can rearrange the girth and makes things right.  (Fun with anagrams!)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Disgraceful List just got one more as the Sawx made room for Smoltz.  Neither funny nor that insightful, but you’d think there would be some kind of rule by the MLB that teams can’t just DL someone because they’re ineffective.

Ryan Howard – In and out of the hospital with a fever.  Phillies doctors said he’d be fine, he just ate a quart of ice cream too fast and his body temperature was trying to overcompensate.

Carlos Beltran – Going for an MRI on Monday for his knee even though he complained days ago and played on Sunday.  Um, okay.  Supposedly he only has pain when he decelerates abruptly.  Here’s an idea, slide!

Endy Chavez – Out for the season so Transylvania’s favorite son, Wladimir Balentien, should get the starts.  Now the Mariners just need all of their major league and minor league catchers to hurt themselves so they have to play Jeff Clement.

Casey McGehee – HR yesterday.  Has 10 homer power, but right now he’s scorching hot, batting over .400 for the last week.  He’s worth a flier over the schmohawk behind door number 3.  For what it’s worth, last week I dropped Kennedy for McGehee in one league.

Chris Coghlan – 3-for-4, 3 Runs.  According to ESPN, Coghlan’s only owned in 3.1% of leagues.  Actually, I kinda understand that.  In June, he has 1 homer and 3 steals.  Excuse me while I burp.

Don Kelly – 2-for-4 and batting .417 since his callup.  He’s a minor league journeyman who has some light speed.  Not speed of light.  Totally different thing.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 Ks.  It’s like 2008 never happened.  But, you know what?  I remember it.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  Note from the author (me).  This was sent in by a longtime reader, Tarasco’s Secret Stash, “Ortiz’s swing this year has been interesting to watch evolve lately, and it’s finally clicking. Dave Magadan first tried the Drew back-shoulder tap as his first timing correction, but that didn’t really seem to get him out of his funk. Papi was rocking that timing mechanism for a couple weeks in May, until they started trying his current approach, which is much quieter and more vertical. He’s setting his hands smoothly now, Hideki Matsui style, instead of waggling the bat or cocking his wrists, and he’s instead leaving the hands up higher and the wrists more loaded. That’s letting him dip slightly to load his weight back while keeping the wrists much more steady, and it’s keeping his swing plane on the ball better. His hip rotation is still strong, which is the best sign for him going forward. He’s able to turn through balls as well as years past, and he seems to have rediscovered his bat path over the last couple weeks. He’s drilling the ball to left center at Fenway of late.”

Dallas Braden – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Solid fill-in for this week without Peavy.  I’m sticking for now and going with him in Oakland vs. the Rox in his next start.  If I were feeling particularly lucky, I’d roll the dice with Cahill (vs. SF, COL) or Garrett Olson (vs. Padres, LAD) this week.  I’m not feeling lucky, but some of youse may be.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  The Wandwagon rolls again.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Nice start vs. the Nats.  I’d take a flier on him for a fifth to sixth fantasy starter.

Lyle Overbay – Hit his 9th homer yesterday with 5 RBIs.  You’re showing Derrek Lee and the dealer’s showing Lyle Overbay.  That’s a push.

Khalil Greene – Two games, two homers.  Now that he has his emotional baggage safely stored in his overhead compartment, he’s mollywopping the ball.  Worth a flier for cheap power at your MI spot.

Gil Meche – 3 1/3 IP, 9 ER.  It was the Cards, man.  The Cards.  Pitch around Pujols (who had 6 RBIs in this game).  Pitch. Around. Him.  Come on!

Michael Cuddyer – HR yesterday.  Hitting .444 over his last week with 2 homers, which is also known as Joe Mauer every week.

Geovany Soto – HR yesterday.  Clearly he’s found his power stroke with 3 homers this month, but he’s still batting .238 in June and only has 6 RBIs all month.

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Got the Win after 6 starts when he could’ve easily been victorious.  I’m still not endorsing him past matchups and his next matchup’s kinda eh.

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Finally listened to Nolan Ryan as he emphasized the importance of the K.

Chris Davis – Over the weekend, Davis became the fastest man ever to 100 Ks.  Maybe Nolan Ryan should be careful about to who he’s emphasizing the importance of the K.

Troy Tulowitzki – 3-for-3.  His average has been on the rise all monthowitzki.

Matt Holliday – 0-for-4, batting .269 on the year with 8 homers.  Where’s that blogger/guy/doode who in the preseason said Holliday just needed to get familiar with Oakland then it would all start clicking?  Is he familiar yet?

Jeremy Accardo – Left yesterday’s game after tweaking something on his right side.  Eddie Vedder says, “Jeremy’s broken…”

Closer Look

April 02, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft 85 Comments →

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the fantasy baseball closers.  Here at Razzball we are always evolving like Saaphyri’s alliance on I Love Money 2, so I’ve added pluses and minuses in parenthesis for the movement a closer has had since the last time I went over them.  For example, if B.J. Ryan fell twelve spots from 10 to 25, he has a parenthetical negative fifteen next to his name.  If there was no change, no parenthetical.  I also removed the team they close for, because if you don’t know that, I’m not sure how much I can help you.  More than anything else, the closer list is constantly changing.  So you kinda need to follow along to my daily roundups, but if you like to have things all in one place, here ya go.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Bobby Jenks (+1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
9. Kerry Wood (+3) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
10. Jose Valverde (+3) (LaTroy Hawkins)
11. Chad Qualls (+3) (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
12. Heath Bell (+4) (Mike Adams)
13. Brian Fuentes (-2) (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
14. Kevin Gregg (+1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Frank Francisco (+6) (C.J. Wilson)
16. Matt Capps (+2) (John Grabow)
17. Francisco Cordero (-9) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
18. Mike Gonzalez (+2) (Rafael Soriano)
19. Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
20. Brian Wilson (-3) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
21. Joel Hanrahan (Saul Rivera, Steven Shell)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
23. Huston Street (+6) (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
24. Troy Percival (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
25. B.J. Ryan (-15) (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson)
26. Jason Motte (-1) (Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan)
27. George Sherrill (-1) (Chris Ray)
28. Brandon Morrow (+2) (Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe)
29. Carlos Villanueva (-2) (Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
30. Fernando Rodney/Brandon Lyon (-6) (Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Axel Foley)

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers for Every Position

March 07, 2008 By: Grey Category: Sleepers 18 Comments →

What you say, you need fantasy baseball sleepers for 2008? You’re looking to get some value at your fantasy draft. Yeah, you and every other schmohawk who’s reading this. Luckily, there’s enough crap out there to distract enough people. So here’s a quick breakdown of 2008 fantasy baseball sleepers for every position. If you want their projections, check the “Players by Position” dropdown on the left side or download Rudy Gamble’s 2008 Player Rater, it’s free, viral and virus-free as far as I can tell. BTW, we’ve covered some of these dudes in past sleeper articles here, here , here and finally here. This list is going to be quick and to the point (unlike this intro).

CATCHERS

Ramon Hernandez – He’s back and his parents didn’t feel the need to spell his first name backwards, so there’s that. (Retire, Nomar, and go prepare a Cobb Salad for Mia.)

Carlos Ruiz – Geovany Soto’s now being touted like he’s the coming Messiah and J.R. Towles might be okay, but you really shouldn’t be going caca-cuckoo for any rookie catchers. You know where your misplaced love should be focused? Ruiz. He could put up Posada numbers with a handful of steals to boot. You’re welcome.

FIRST BASEMEN

Conor Jackson – He’s looking at everyday duty without Tony Clark looming. And, weighing in at 540 lbs. and stepping over the top rope at seven feet-four inches, Tony Clark looms. Conor stops looking over his shoulder and does something. C.J.’s still young, btw.

Casey Kotchman – If I say one more time that Magic recovered from AIDS quicker than Casey recovered from mono, I’m going to hell. Kotchman’s back, ya’ll.

SECOND BASEMEN

Alberto Callaspo — Why won’t Grudzielanek retire? I blame the Royals.

Dustin Pedroia – A Red Sox under the radar after winning ROY? Um, kinda. He’s being undervalued. Whatevs, grab him.

Robinson Cano – A Yankee without farkin’ bees swarming around him? Yeah, sorta. He’s the homer/RBI cheese to your middle infielders’ steal macaronis.

SHORTSTOPS

Yunel Escobar — Here’s what I said months ago, “His OBP hovered around .380 for his career in pro ball and he has decent speed and power. He could easily be a poor man’s Renteria. I know, that doesn’t sound that enticing, but there’s a place for that.” Damn, I got wisdom.

Miguel Tejada – Okay, not exactly a sleeper in the conventional sense, but he’s not done. He ripped up DR’s winter ball in the offseason and he’s playing with something to prove (that he’s urinating clean).

THIRD BASEMEN

Alex Gordon – Disregard last season and give him another shot; in ’09, he’s not going to be cheap.

Edwin Encarncion  – I never thought I’d say this, but I actually like Edwin Encarncion a lot this year. I got hate in my heart for him because he doesn’t run out routine popups and Dusty may get sick of that shizz, but here’s to Edwin hustling this year.

OUTFIELDERS

Matt Diaz
– So what he’s got a rep for killing only lefties, you can’t make roster moves? Slot him in against lefties. FYhoo, I think he hits both sides this year.

Luke Scott – Anyone with the first name Luke can play baseball. Just not in the majors (Luke Appalling, excluded). I hesitated putting Scott on this list, but he gets a shot this year. Worth a late round flier to take a gamble. (Full disclosure: I try to only give advice I would follow, and I won’t draft Luke in any league, so, well, now you know.)

Michael Bourn – I’ve covered Bourn so much, he’s moving into mancrush territory.

Carlos Quentin – I don’t even know if he has a job. Let’s hope he does, because last year wasn’t indicative of his talent.

Shane Victorino – I’ve  touted Victorino to the point where I’m not even sure he’s a sleeper anymore. Anyway, I would/will draft Victorino as my 3rd outfielder. You have to have Victorino on your team this year. I may start a running piece on my love for The Flying Hawaiian. I got lots of love to give.

STARTERS

Adam Wainwright – Look at his splits from last year. Took him three months to recover from that closer experiment and he was on point after the All-Star break. (He burned me in the 1st half of last year too, you gotta give him another chance.)

Manny Parra – You want this year’s Yovani? Parra will make everyone’s list next year. You get him this year, especially in keepers.

Zach Greinke –  If  he takes his mental health pills every day, he could be a force this year. Could the Royals be this year Brewers? Perhaps, Ms. Cleo.

CLOSERS

Carlos Marmol – He’s dealing and the Cubs (specifically Lou) want to win.

Joey Devine – I’m not convinced Devine won’t lay a turd baby at any moment, but Huston’s either moving on or getting injured.

Jeremy Accardo – If BJ’s hurting at any point in Spring Training, Accardo’s not a sleeper. You draft him like he’s your number two closer.

Aaron Heilman — Sorry, Mets fans, Wagner got old last year. Heilman gets at least fifteen saves this year. Act accordingly.

Al Reyes – Why doesn’t someone book a cruise for Grudzielanek and Percival? I blame the Rays.

Last name that I want to highlight:

Scott Baker – I haven’t seen much buzz about this dude, so I figured I’d drop him in at the end. I have nothing to say, except in 143.2 innings his K/BB was 102/29. Read those numbers one more time. Now he’s not ringing up 200 Ks this year, but that strikeout to walk ratio is a magical first step to finding value where others may not see it.

Groaning at Bad Punditry – When To Draft Closers

March 05, 2008 By: Rudy Gamble Category: Closers, Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy, Rudy Gamble, Strategy 6 Comments →

Matthew Berry at ESPN is on a ‘fantasy jihad’ to make sure you don’t pay for saves come draft day. No word on whether resisting this temptation will be paid off with 72 virgins.

While this is auction draft advice, I’m going to assume that Mr. Berry would recommend that snake drafters also eschew J.J. Putz for putzes like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones. Eric Karabell at ESPN has been consistent on this advice for several years now as well.

There is definitely merit to this position but does that mean drafting a top closer is meritless? Of course not.

Let’s get on with the debunking…

Pundit View: “Saves come into the league.” – i.e., you can pick up saves throughout the year via free agency as injuries and poor performance bring new closers into the mix.

Rudy Gamble View: Everyone in your league is on the lookout for closers on the FA wire – especially the owner of the soon-to-be-disposed closer. You can’t bank on these saves.

Let’s look at pitchers with 8+ saves from last year who were most likely not picked on 2007 draft day (similar to Matthew Berry’s list except I added Al Reyes and left off Brett Myers who was drafted as a starter).

Kevin Gregg, 32 saves
Jeremy Accardo, 30
Al Reyes, 26
Manny Corpas, 19
Brad Hennessey, 19
Matt Capps, 18
Joakim Soria, 17
Alan Embree, 17
CJ Wilson, 12
Dan Wheeler, 11
Rafael Soriano, 9
Bob Howry, 8
Antonio Alfonseca, 8

This is a total of 226 saves available for grabs. Divide that by 10 teams in your league and you’re talking about an average of about 23 saves per team. The average number of saves per team in a league is about 90 (think 30 MLB teams with 30 saves each).

Free agent closers are definitely a factor in determining final rankings in Saves and I highly recommend keeping an eye on closer situations throughout the league. If you’ve got a closer on the ropes, pick up his potential successor to be safe (commonly called handcuffing). But you can’t bank on free agent closers to contribute more than 1/4 of your saves.

Thinking more broadly, there’s an underlying assumption here that closers come into a league more than hitters – hence, it’s a waste to draft closers ahead of offense.

Here’ is a lineup of players that most likely weren’t drafted in 10 team 5×5 MLB leagues on draft day 2007.

C Ronny Paulino
1B Carlos Pena
2B BJ Upton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Ryan Braun
OF Chris Young
OF Shane Victorino
OF Corey Hart
OF Hunter Pence
OF Jack Cust
CI Ryan Garko
MI Kelly Johnson
UTIL Kevin Kouzmanoff
Bench Mark Reynolds
Bench Nate McLouth
Bench Matt Stairs

Some of these players are better than others. Most probably didn’t have much competition when they were eventually picked up (again, assuming snake draft leagues where there is no bidding).

Moral of the story: every position and stat category ‘comes into the league’. But closers/saves are the only position/stat that EVERYONE is keeping an eye on.

Pundit View: Top closers are a risky investment.

Rudy Gamble View: Top closers aren’t that risky. They generally deliver within their drafted tier. The volatility in Wins and Saves means you shouldn’t reach too far for one closer vs. another in the same tier.

Yes, I know. BJ Ryan in 2007.

But here’s my top 10 closers going into 2007 and their eventual finish amongst closers in our 2007 Player Rater. and ESPN Player Rater:

1. Joe Nathan (3,3)
2. B.J. Ryan (n/a)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (4,5)
4. Mariano Rivera (13,12)
5. Billy Wagner (11,10)
6. Huston Street (18,21)
7. J.J. Putz (1,1)
8. Francisco Cordero (9,8)
9. Chad Cordero (27,15)
10. Trevor Hoffman (8,9)

So aside from BJ Ryan, there weren’t really any disaster picks. Yes, Huston Street got injured again but he wasn’t a complete disaster.

But this top 10 list only has 5 of the top 10 finishers. Here are the other 5 and their position on my draft board:

Takashi Saito (2,2) – ranked 11th
Jonathan Papelbon (5,4) – unranked only b/c he was set to start
Bobby Jenks (6,7) – ranked 12th
Jose Valverde (7,6) – ranked 20th
Jason Isringhausen (10,11) – ranked 17th

So assuming Papelbon would’ve been added if he was announced to close a little bit earlier, the only closers outside my top 15 rankings are Valverde or Izzy.

From a tier perspective, I’d say 3 of the 4 top tier relievers delivered (Nathan, K-Rod, Papelbon – yes, BJ Ryan – no). If you say the 2nd tier goes from Mariano to Jenks, 8 of 9 delivered (Street’s 16 saves a disappointment). The 3rd tier of Lidge, Chris Ray, Fuentes, Gordon, Izzy, Gagne, Jones, and Valverde was a lot riskier as only 3 of this 8 could be considered a ‘success’. The 4th tier gets ugly – for every Borowski, there is a Dempster or Torres or Benitez.

While there’s an argument that it’s a crapshoot where top closers will rank year-end, it seems clear that relying solely on 3rd or 4th tier closers makes it more likely you’ll crap out.

Pundit View: Closers are less valuable because they only impact one category (saves).

Rudy Gamble View: Closers HAVE an impact across ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (even if less than Starters). The difference between a top closer and a low tier closer is larger than you think.

“Saves are saves”, right? No. I’m not saying saves aren’t sometimes worth sucking up garbage ERA/WHIP from the likes of Todd Jones or Joe Borowski. But it comes at a price…

Todd Jones
Joe Borowski

Based on our 2008 Point Shares, here are the differences between JJ Putz and Todd Jones for ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (ignoring Wins here since reliever win projections aren’t very reliable):

ERA – Putz 0.6, Jones -1.1, Difference 1.7
WHIP – Putz 0.7, Jones -0.8, Difference 1.5
K – Putz -0.5, Jones -1.4, Difference 0.9

The total difference in ERA/WHIP/K b/w Putz and Jones is at 4.1 point shares. That’s 4.1 points in the standings. To put that in perspective, it’s the difference between Alfonso Soriano (3.48 point shares) and Nick Swisher (-0.49 point shares).

For those of you who prefer seeing stats vs. point shares, here are the results of swapping JJ Putz for Todd Jones on ERA/WHIP/K for a random team I chose from a MockDraftCentral.com mock draft:

(With Putz, With Jones)
ERA (3.83, 3.96)
WHIP (1.313, 1.339)
K (826, 782)

So here’s my advice….

Top closers are worth paying for – at the right prices.

Jonathan Papelbon dancing
JJ Putz

The top two going into this year are Papelbon (yeah, that’s him dancing) and Putz. While their point shares rank them at #21 and #23, they are usually lasting to the 4th or 5th round in most drafts. If you can get either guy in the 4th round or later, it’s good value.

I prefer waiting until these two go off the board and settling for Nathan or K-Rod. These two come in at #33 and #37 on Point Shares and waiting for the first two to come off the board ensures you don’t jump too early on closers.

If a closer run happens soon after the top 2 come off the board, I’d recommend picking up anyone in the next tier (Rivera, Wagner, F. Cordero, Saito, Jenks) with your next pick. I know blogmate Grey prefers to start with one of these guys vs. a Nathan or K-Rod. I can’t argue with it – this 2nd tier shows similar reliability. Just matters how much you value the peripherals like ERA/WHIP/Ks.

But I do feel that having at least one top two tier closer is essential to minimizing your chances of being caught at the bottom on Save points (FYI, I don’t believe in punting any category unless you’re in H2H. There is too much margin for error in player statistics to think you will make it up in other categories to make this a reliable gambit. Possible, yes. Bankable, no.)

I’d then be looking for a 2nd or 3rd tier closer and 3rd or 4th tier closer so that you’ve got 3 closers going into the season. If there are still closers on the board after, say, the 15th round or so, just start grabbing them. You can either hope they reward the risk or look to trade them – one rule of closers is that it’s the only position where even the mediocre players have trade value (who’ll get more on a trade – Chad Cordero or Orlando Cabrera?).

The only time I’d change from this strategy is MAYBE if you’re playing in a novice league. But if that’s the case, you might as well just stick to ESPN for fantasy baseball advice.

Deep Sleepers for 2008

February 05, 2008 By: Grey Category: Sleepers 4 Comments →

Take Alex Rodriguez with your first pick. He performs half of what you expect from him and you’re pissed, but it won’t lose you your league. Take Nomar with your last pick and he gives you nothing. Also, you may not lose your league. Take Alberto Callaspo with your last pick and he gives you tenth round numbers. This is how a winning fantasy baseball team is born. Let’s look at some deep sleepers for 2008. But if you take one of these guys before the last round of your draft; you’re not paying attention. These are deep sleepers. Last round only.

Joey Devine – Why is Huston Street still on the A’s? The question will probably be dated by May. The A’s just auctioned off Billy Beane’s parking spot for $40/month and a bag of buttered popcorn. Do you really think Street’s making it to Opening Day with the A’s? The Brewers are lining up candidates to fill in for Gagne post-injury. Why not Street? Why not the Cubs? Why not the Rangers? Street will be somewhere; it’s not going to be with the A’s. So Devine steps in and gets a few saves. I don’t like Devine cause I’m still smarting from two years ago when he gave up, like, 6 runs in 1/3 of an inning, but someone’s got to get the A’s saves.

Manny Parra – You missed Yovani Gallardo? Manny’s a lefty with some nasty stuff. He struck out 26 in only 26 innings last year while averaging a K and inning in the minors. This year Ben Sheets gets (SPOILER ALERT!) injured and Parra steps in and mows down hitters the first time through the league. You’re welcome.

Matt Diaz – Slot him in against lefties. The man can rake(.356 over 188 ABs). If by some divine miracle, Cox figures out he’s not that bad even against righties (.318 over 170 ABs), you’re money.

Jeremy Accardo – Caveat, only draft Accardo in the final round if BJ Ryan starts the season as the Jays closer. BJ suffers a setback in spring training or if Accardo opens the season as the closer, draft Accardo earlier then the final round. Basically, I’m saying Accardo will pick up plenty of saves even if Ryan is supposedly ready to close.

Alberto Callaspo – The aforementioned Callaspo has a chance for some playing time. At second base, he’s got to battle Grudzielanek (retire already!) and at short Tony Pena Jr. (you’re embarrassing your father!). Callapso has a great eye and good speed. The Royals could be this year’s ‘07 Brewers (which in the AL Central means a fourth place finish).

There will be more sleepers to come.