Guess what, fellas and two girl readers? It ain’t last year no more — that’s a double negative and ain’t ain’t a word. Eat it, English teachers! So it’s with much regret that I must tell you you’re not going to get value for Mark Reynolds in 2010 if you have to draft him where he’s being drafted. Don’t draft your 2010 fantasy baseball team thinking you’re going to right all the wrongs you made last year. It doesn’t work that way. You’ll just be compounding your errors. Anyone who’s ever been in a casino knows what I’m talking about. You watch someone make a fortune at blackjack, craps, keno, whatever and you think to yourself, “Ah, man, I should’ve sat down.” Then you do sit down and lose. That’s you and the gamble is Mark Reynolds. You missed the boat. Don’t try and make up for past mistakes.
There’s something else at work here. Something no one wants to talk about. Fantasy baseball ‘perts are afraid of you. You, the reader. Everywhere you look people are telling you Reynolds is a top third baseman. They’re telling you he’s a top third baseman because they screwed up last year and they don’t want to screw up again. They think there will be a mutiny if you don’t see rankings that make sense compared to everyone else. Finally, they underestimate you. They think you only look at last year’s stats and you want the next year’s rankings to compare favorably to them. It’s why everyone (but me) was telling you to draft Josh Hamilton last year. No one wanted to rock the Josh Hamilton boat. (Actually, I like Hamilton this year, but that’s for a another post.) There’s so much “What has he done for me lately?” in fantasy baseball that you can exploit it if you’re aware of it. People have great years all the time, doesn’t mean they will have a great year again the following year.
There was a reason I told you to draft Reynolds last year and it had as much to do with where he was being drafted as what he could do. Mark Reynolds is not a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or really even a 4th rounder. He’s definitely being overrated right now for 2010 fantasy baseball. Is anyone that is drafting him early in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts actually looking at his numbers? He struckout 223 times last year. He hit .187 in September. What if he hits .187 in April? You gonna be happy about drafting him in the first four rounds of 2010? Doode’s a bad luck year away from hitting .225. What if he only steals 15 bases and hits 34 homers while batting .250? Sounds terrific…for a guy you draft in the 7th round. Not the 3rd round. Stop the madness. Please.