Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Guess what, fellas and two girl readers?  It ain’t last year no more — that’s a double negative and ain’t ain’t a word.  Eat it, English teachers!  So it’s with much regret that I must tell you you’re not going to get value for Mark Reynolds in 2010 if you have to draft him where he’s being drafted.  Don’t draft your 2010 fantasy baseball team thinking you’re going to right all the wrongs you made last year.  It doesn’t work that way.  You’ll just be compounding your errors.  Anyone who’s ever been in a casino knows what I’m talking about.  You watch someone make a fortune at blackjack, craps, keno, whatever and you think to yourself, “Ah, man, I should’ve sat down.”  Then you do sit down and lose.  That’s you and the gamble is Mark Reynolds.  You missed the boat.  Don’t try and make up for past mistakes.

There’s something else at work here.  Something no one wants to talk about.  Fantasy baseball ‘perts are afraid of you.  You, the reader.  Everywhere you look people are telling you Reynolds is a top third baseman.  They’re telling you he’s a top third baseman because they screwed up last year and they don’t want to screw up again.  They think there will be a mutiny if you don’t see rankings that make sense compared to everyone else.  Finally, they underestimate you.  They think you only look at last year’s stats and you want the next year’s rankings to compare favorably to them.  It’s why everyone (but me) was telling you to draft Josh Hamilton last year.  No one wanted to rock the Josh Hamilton boat.  (Actually, I like Hamilton this year, but that’s for a another post.) There’s so much “What has he done for me lately?” in fantasy baseball that you can exploit it if you’re aware of it.  People have great years all the time, doesn’t mean they will have a great year again the following year.

There was a reason I told you to draft Reynolds last year and it had as much to do with where he was being drafted as what he could do.  Mark Reynolds is not a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or really even a 4th rounder.  He’s definitely being overrated right now for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Is anyone that is drafting him early in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts actually looking at his numbers?  He struckout 223 times last year.  He hit .187 in September.  What if he hits .187 in April?  You gonna be happy about drafting him in the first four rounds of 2010?  Doode’s a bad luck year away from hitting .225.  What if he only steals 15 bases and hits 34 homers while batting .250?  Sounds terrific…for a guy you draft in the 7th round.  Not the 3rd round.  Stop the madness.  Please.

From Around The Web

  1. Tony says:
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    love the schmohawk posts hahaha….. mauer and now reynolds… please do one on crawford next… 3 guys that are overrated, overdrafted, and going to underacheive for their draft spot….

  2. brad says:
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    totally agree, i won’t be drafting reynolds in any leagues this year.

    i will be keeping him as a 17th rounder in one league though (feeling damn good about it too). i’ll probably looking for trading partners as soon as the draft is over, when value is highest.

  3. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: Yeah, I still need to get back into the sleeper posts though too.

    @brad: Yeah, in the 17th round that’s good value.

  4. Antrim Warriors says:
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    he had a 1/4 of his homers between 7/26-8/9, that ain’t gonna happen again!!

  5. matthole says:
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    @Grey: whats your take on vladdy G. this year in texas friendly ballpark? Do you see him as that forgotten star vet that will be a steal in drafts? ie ibanez, abreu last year and bay 2 yrs ago…

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Antrim Warriors: There ya go.

    @matthole: I do like him more, but it’s so hard to field a Utility only player so he’s still around a 110th in my rankings.

  7. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Given that 3B seems to be a bit thin this year, is there a spot where you’d consider drafting Reynolds?

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Sure, around the 4th or 5th round, but he won’t be there.

  9. kwak says:
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    This is why this is the only fantasy baseball blog I read every day. The above insight about how fantasy bloggers think is spot on. Everyone is too afraid to miss the boat again with Reynolds or Mauer … but not Grey. Keep shinin that bold light gentleman!!

  10. matthole says:
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    @kwak: the key is to find next years versions of reynolds and mauer, greinkes, etc…

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: re: McGwire — At least we still have our heroes like Bonds and Sosa.

    @kwak: Glad to be of service.

  12. Eddy says:
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    I always cause riots in my mock drafts when I rag on the schmohawks. Last night a guy drafted Mauer THIRD overall and it gave me the perfect oppurtunity to bust his balls. When i whooped out the Ianetta comparison he was outraged. He says you can’t get good catchers by the 10th.

    I made my point by drafting Napoli in the 16th.

  13. Joe C says:
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    @Eddy: As they say in poker, “don’t tap the glass… it scares the fish away”.

    Point being, don’t rag on people too much about how much they suck for picking Mauer 3rd overall, because they may listen to you and STOP DOING IT, which will make it harder for you to win.

    Myself, I like easy wins, 65-0 blowouts like when those old Nebraska teams used to play Western Alaskan State College or some other school of retards.

    So let them draft like trained monkeys. And laugh all the way to the championship trophy.

    (Disclaimer: I have, upon occasion, also berated opponents for their ultimate donk-itude, so I understand the need to vent one’s superiority… however, as with everything in life (such as lawn mowing, steeple chasing), moderation is the key.)

  14. Eddy says:
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    @Joe C:
    Well in my defense I don’t flat out insult them, I just say a subtle comment (which I admit I do to get something going) and they do all the work lol. But in mocks I actually don’t mind spilling some Razzball wisdom because sometimes someone happens to add something to it. I’m usually more helpful to the people there.

    As for my ACTUAL friends who I’m gonna draft with this season, however, they don’t even have a clue that I’m even THINKING about fantasy baseball, not to mention doing daily mocks and reading up on several fantasy websites! I kinda feel bad for them not having a clue about any sleepers/schmohawks.

    But as you said, I’ll sit back and laugh my way all the way to the championships like last year

  15. Eddy says:
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    Grey, I saw on RotoProfessor that Montero was rated the 4th best catcher and Wieters the 5th best for 2010.

    Similiar to your ratings or on the opposite end of the spectrum?

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: You’ll find that out on Wednesday.

  17. Nate Marcum says:
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    @Eddy:
    I am amazed at Suzuki being that high on the list. Sure, C is pretty shallow now, but I think I would take half of Ianetta’s numbers, I guess that means I am drafting Ian….Stewart? Oh I wish! Where was I? Oh yeah, Ianetta…I am sorry, all I can do is think of what a steal I am gonna get out of Ian Stewart….Rotoprofessor vs. Grey? I know who I am picking…..

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Nate Marcum: Eric (the rotoprofessor) is a good guy, but every time I read the name, Rotoprofessor, I think of Professor Frink.

  19. Eddy says:
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    @Nate Marcum:
    Yea, this is my main site for sure, but I like to glance at other fantasy sites and see what everyone elses thoughts are. RotoProfessor is nice in the sense that it updates pretty frequently (unlike 80% of other fantasy baseball sites) and that it includes topics such as Montero v. Doumit or other debates people usually have. However, I sometimes question the rankings (as you just saw) and a few weeks ago I looked up Grey’s 2009 sleepers/schmohawks and he was spot on.

    Point is, I always check Razzball first and heed its advice before anyone. Anything else is just supplemental. Heck, it’s where I learned about Stewart, Rasmus and any other sleepers and such!

    Can’t wait to set up my rankings based on the coming weeks!

  20. Eddy says:
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    Oh btw Grey, are you still doing a mock this Wednesday?

    And I remember a commenter asked once if it was possible to set up a draft with you and a few other commenters here. Any word if that can ever get done? I know I (and plenty of other guys [and two girls]) would love to be a part of it

  21. Nate Marcum says:
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    I was definitely not blasting the guy. If I had the cojones to put myself up on the chopping block, I would expect for some dude, like myself, to question most of my rankings, just hoping that somebody I have pretty high fails so they can throw it back in my face.

    I glance at way too many sites, thus leading to one big jumbled mess, in which I fix by looking deep down and asking “Who’s site do I wanna blame if I make the wrong decision” Congrats Grey, it’s not you….its Fanball.com (just because I am in a keeper league with the guys at that site) You guys should check it out…

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Mock is going on this Wednesday for me. Commenters should setup mocks whenever they want in the comments. I’m sure you can get 11 other people if you give people a few days.

  23. Nate Marcum says:
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    @Eddy:
    It was actually me that was asking for a commenter mock…you want to set one up…Mockdraftcentral ok for you? What time works best?

    I will be leaving town on thursday, but any day before would be good.

  24. Eddy says:
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    @Nate Marcum:
    Lol what a coincidence

    And sure, I have an account there, I’d definitely be down to do it. I like doing late drafts more or less 9pm ET more or less.

    How about Wednesday at 9pm ET to give other Razzballers a couple of days?

  25. Ben the M says:
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    Man I am in a 20 team 5×5 keeper league that keeps 6 players, which become your first 6 round draft picks. 2 of my players just happen to be Mauer and Reynolds…you arent helping me pump up their value very much! As long as one team in the league doesnt read your blog I should be able to get something shinny for Reynolds.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Ben the M: Reynolds is decent as a 6th rounder and Mauer as a 5th rounder. Depends though I guess who your other 4 guys are.

  27. AsdrubalBastardo says:
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    @Grey: Where do you think Grandy will go this year? I am hearing 2nd-4th round. But am I crazy for thinking late 1st round? Being a lefty in that park I feel he can go 30/30 easily with the possibility of even getting to 40/40!

  28. nate marcum says:
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    @Eddy:
    That would work good for me…Let’s tentatively plan on wednesday at 8 or 9. We can hash out details. natemarcum@yahoo.com

  29. Ben the M says:
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    Well that is the problem, I am stacked with 5th and 6th rounders. Here are my top 12 players.

    Mauer
    Reynolds
    Morneau
    Markakis
    Abreu
    Soriano

    Felix
    Grienke
    Wainwright
    Nathan
    Papelbon
    Bailey

    My goal is to turn something like Reynolds/Wainwright or Markakis/Papelbon into a top 2 round player. We will see how that goes once the offseason trading picks up. Otherwise I will dump my excess keeper level talent for top picks in the FA part of the draft.

    Given those 12 players which 6 would you keep?

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Ben the M: Hmm… That’s tough. I like the idea of turning one of those trades, especially the Markakis one. I’d keep Mauer, Reynolds, Morneau, Greinke, Markakis and Wainwright, but wouldn’t be thrilled.

  31. Ben the M says:
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    You wouldn’t keep Felix? I had him pegged at my most valuable keeper…yikes(on me overvaluing him). Other than that I am glad to see that my thoughts are right in line with yours (other than Felix over Wainwright) as in not being thrilled with the results. But with 20 teams, at least there are plenty out there in worse shape than me.

  32. matthole says:
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    @Grey: can you see reimold being the better valued version of markakis? Kind of like how werth was drafted 5 rounds later than victorino and haren a few rounds after webb?

  33. AsdrubalBastardo says:
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    @Grey: Yeah I was probably stretching. But seeing Johnny Damon hit 25 HRs last season, combined with the Yankees lack of bagswipers had me dreaming of a huge season. I will definitely be doing whatever I can to get him on my rosters next season… but probably not in the first round ha

  34. Poor Mini Donkey, no believers.

  35. Eddy says:
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    Aha! Finally remembered a question I was meaning to ask you. A few days ago I posted a mock team here and you said you counted about 95 steals which wasn’t too great. What are your requirements for a team that’s above average in steals? Does it apply to H2H too?

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Ben the M: Glad you asked again. I brain farted him. He is your most valuable. I’d sub him in for Wainwright.

    @matthole: Yeah, I could see that.

    @Elijah: Ha!

    @Eddy: No, it’s different for H2H. I assume roto, unless someone tells me different. I also assume 12 teams unless I hear different. So I want at least 120 steals.

  37. Eddy says:
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    So in a 12 team, H2H, standard categories 120 is the magic number?

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: No, H2H is a different breed. You just need 5-8 steals a week. You need to find them wherever.

  39. Steve says:
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    @Eddy: In H2H, the magic number is one more than your opponent for the week has ;-)

  40. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    ah ok, I was under the assumption that you meant 120 steals, then spread that over the season. Thanks for clearing it up.
    @Steve:
    hehe thanks, that was my original plan ;P

  41. Ryan says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, I was with you on Hamilton’s suckage last year, and I firmly stand with you on Reynolds this year!

    This is why there are no other fantasy baseball blogs worth reading. Superior wit and superior information, perfect.

  42. GTS says:
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    Grey, I’m looking for some rankings that include auction values for each player for a standard $260/team mixed league auction. Can you point me to some hopefully free and legit rankings somewhere?

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Ryan: Cool, glad could be o a help.

    @GTS: Rudy’s auction values will be up in a few. I don’t know of others.

  44. GTS says:
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    @Grey: Do you have a link to his site?

  45. sean says:
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    @Grey: love the two-a-days now that we’ve turned the corner on 2010 and are moving full speed ahead toward draft season.

    Great post on Reynolds. I see some people drafting Reynolds in the first round thinking that he’ll lead them to El Dorado. Instead, it’s about time that we revisit the hype cycle graphic from Hamilton’s post last year.

  46. Steve says:
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    @GTS: You’re already here :)

  47. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GTS: Rudy is here at Razzball.

    @sean: Yeah, maybe I will bring out the hype cycle.

  48. GTS says:
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    @Grey: Oh, that Rudy. The same Rudy that runs Razzball Football? Where will he post his auction values on this site?

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GTS: It will be on this site.

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
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    ****NEWS*** Mark McGwire doesn’t know what hastening means!

  51. quimmy says:
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    So I started ths off season with the following keepers, keeper cap is $75 and you lost the draft pick for the rd the player was selected in 2009:

    Braun rd1
    Kemp rd 6
    JUP rd 20
    Hill rd27
    Kendry rd28

    In this scenario I didnt have a 1st rd pick in the 2010 draft bc of keeping Braun. My 2nd rd(14) left me with choosing from Sizemore, Wright, Reyes and that ilk. (Is ilk a word and if so did i use it right?)

    After 2 big keeper trades:
    Braun for Tulo(rd9)
    Hill for Longoria(rd2)
    My keeps look like this:

    Longo rd2
    Kemp rd6
    Tulo rd9
    JUP rd20
    Kendry rd28

    Also, I now have the 4th overall pick in the first round with (tex, howard, utley and cc on the board) I put CC here:
    1. to carbon copy you
    2. bc every team has decided to keep pitchers and cc and haren are the cream of the crop, after that next best pitcher is lester, not ideal #1 sp for me

    So, am I in a better situation now or before? Please dont just write “now” or “before”, i typed so much…… :)

  52. Big Mike says:
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    Give me Chris Davis instead!

  53. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Haven’t you heard? Roids ain’t for your brain Grey……………….

  54. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @quimmy: Ilk was used correctly. The Braun for Tulo was a decent move. You definitely freed up the ability to get CC, which is solid. Hill for Longoria move I like a lot. As I just alluded to, you have to take CC there. It would be your sixth player, CC in the 6th round is great value.

    @Big Mike: There ya go.

    @BigFatHippo: He’s got like reptile neck skin.

  55. quimmy says:
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    @grey: thank you sir as always, keep up the awesome work

  56. royce! says:
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    McGwire’s got to be delusional if he thinks that anyone (including his parents and son, whom he never “told” until yesterday) thought he didn’t do steroids. I mean, it’s sad to watch him get so choked up about it, but how can he really think anyone believed he didn’t do steroids?

    More delusionally, he somehow thinks he can maintain that he had the power and bat speed to hit 60+ HR without steroids.

    But I think that being delusional in such a way is often central to being a great player. I read an article some time ago about how a large majority of famous sports players could be diagnosed with some sort of psychological disorder that has something to do with thinking one has much more power than they actually do… I wish I could remember more specifics, but apparently insanity or delusion is too common of a word in relation to sports for google to be helpful.

  57. royce! says:
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    Right as I posted that, he stated, “my mind was so strong.” So, apparently he hit those HRs with his mind. Sounds sane to me!

  58. royce! says:
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    And apparently not strong enough to comprehend the definition of “hastening.”

  59. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    coming home from work tonight and
    seeing , not only a new post , but ,
    all the new comments ,
    reminds me of that point in the
    field of dreams movie , where the
    brother-in-law finally says
    “where did all the ball-players come from ?”
    i guess spring has sprung .

    the only part of this post
    that i disagree with , and , in fact ,
    find abhorrently wrong is
    “mr. math” telling the english teachers
    to “eat it ” .
    you may be getting a little carried away .
    care to back-pedal a bit ??

  60. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    as a reminder ===> english < math .
    true or false ?

  61. Steve says:
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    @big o: False.

    English > Math.

    As long as you know the numbers you need to know, when you need to know them ;-)

  62. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Nice rant. There’s a fine line there between a Tiger Woods, McGwire, Bonds or Jordan, etc. You can’t succeed without delusional egotism. It takes a certain type of delusional personality to even think you can hit a 95 MPH fastball 500 feet. Something I don’t hear or read much is the confidence that steroids gives you. That’s gotta be a factor too.

    @big o: You know it’s false, O.

  63. Eddy says:
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    Grey do you intend to write a post for Zobrist? Or will he get his little paragraph in the rankings? I’m just really interested in what you think about him because I’ve come to realize that everyone thinks it’s black or white with him. Either he has established himself as a big producer or he was a complete fluke.

  64. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: He’ll definitely have his own paragraph, then if demand for info stays high he might get his own post.

  65. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: I would be interested in a Zobrist post. I nabbed him in almost all my leagues, and in my keeper. The problem with him though, is that he has almost no trade value.

  66. royce! says:
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    @Grey: It seemed that McGwire was convinced that all steroids were doing for him were keeping him from getting injured, which to me is fine, because I could care less if he really comes to terms with the fact that he will never be able to prove he could hit that many HRs without steroids. I would like to see the ownership and MLB generally own up to the fact that they knew what was going on and seemed to let it occur in order to gain fans. That wasn’t delusional; it was just greedy. And what I want most is to never have to think about this again. So I guess I hope I can shut up about it and that McGwire doesn’t get the Bonds treatment. Not that he doesn’t deserve it, but I deserve better. Now how’s that for delusional?

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Yeah, he has no trade value because no one trusts him to repeat.

    @royce!: That’s pretty close to my opinion on the whole matter. The only one I’d like to hear apologize is Selig. Say, “Hey, it was all my fault. It was obviously what was going on and I didn’t move fast enough.”

  68. Ramen says:
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    Schmohawk, or not, you’d still keep Reynolds over Votto, Phillips, or Zobrist, right?

    Also for scratch drafts, where do you think the tipping point is, where Reynolds goes from over-priced, to a value pick? Mid 3rd?

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Ramen: It’s very close between keeping him over Votto. Really would come down to other keepers. Value pick in the front of the 4th round.

  70. samual adams says:
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    Wondering if someone could help me out. I am in an 8 team head to head league with keepers. We can keep one pitcher and one batter. I have cabrera and halladay to start with and the second pick in the draft. I was offered a trade involving my second round pick and fifth rounder for someone’s first rounder (1st overall) and their 10th pick. So basically I have the first two picks in the draft, then have to skip rds. 2 and 5, and get an extra pick in rd 10. what should I do?

  71. The Future says:
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    Just traded Reynolds for Jason Werth. Read my mind Razzball.

  72. Jeremy says:
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    We just finished our draft and reynolds is in the free agent pool, whould i drop berkman or kouzmanoff(took him late believe he will be a fine sleeper) please help

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