In the 2009 preseason, I looked at Mark Reynolds and saw a bargain. He stole bases and hit homers. I figured the rest would sort itself out. It did. In a big way. On his way to celebrating the bi-whifftennial, Reynolds hit a career high in homers, steals, RBIs, Runs… Knocked down 7 consecutive bulls eyes that make the old Western piano man play, perfectly stopped his Tivo remote so it landed right after the intro to The Real World/Road Rules Challenge: The Ruins, but didn’t miss one moment of Tonya acting bat-shit crazy and he aptly called someone on The Biggest Loser a chucklefanny. (A chucklefanny is anyone whose butt jiggles when they giggle.) Yeah, Mark Reynolds is money. Sorry, I’m so 2008. I mean, #markreynoldsismoney. So what’s left for Mini Donkey in 2010 fantasy baseball? Is he a fantasy baseball keeper?
Frankly, I’m worried. But we had so many good times! I’m not prepared to throw him in the schmohawk category just yet. I won’t do that until I start to see how early he gets drafted. My guess is he’ll go way too early. But this is a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper post, and that shizz means you have Reynolds already for mad cheap — that’s Jim Cramer’s brother’s show. Now scream like you’re a lobster going into boiling water. Just remember some figures. Someone who strikes out 200 times, is not a good bet to repeat a .260 average. Reynolds isn’t plain old fast. He gets good reads and is “sneaky fast,” courtesy of Mark Grace. “Sneaky fast” is a recipe for a guy that may only steal 12-15 bases next year. So don’t rely on Reynolds getting 24 again. Finally, 44 homers seems like the apex on Mt. Mini Donkey. Does he hit monster shots? Beef pho sho! So, even if he has no tolerance for chucklefannies, he’s definitely a fantasy baseball keeper, assuming you have Reynolds for cheap. Just keep your expectations in check.
Any steals at all are just a welcome bonus. I love me some Reynolds too for keeper leagues, but I’ll probably be staying away in redrafts.
To me, a doubtfielder is more like a streaky guy like Willingham, who went smoking hot for a while, but when he went cold I didn’t know whether to dump him or to keep him (I ended up benching him on the one day that he hit 2 HRs, then I used him again for 2 more unproductive weeks before finally dumping him for good). Rios, Delmon Young or Vernon Wells also fit the profile. I love the name though, gotta use it one way or another.
C
A.J. Pierzynski
(CWS – C) No new player Notes
x @Det L, 5-3 51% -/- - - - - - -
1B
Joey Votto
(Cin – 1B) No new player Notes
x Pit W, 6-0 68% 3/4 1 3 0 0 0 .750
2B
Brandon Phillips
(Cin – 2B) No new player Notes
x Pit W, 6-0 85% 2/4 1 2 0 3 0 .500
3B
Mark Reynolds
(Ari – 1B,3B) No new player Notes
x @ChC W, 5-2 74% 1/4 1 1 0 0 0 .250
SS
Ben Zobrist
(TB – 2B,SS,OF) No new player Notes
x NYY L, 10-2 79% 2/4 0 2 0 0 0 .500
OF
Carl Crawford
(TB – OF) No new player Notes
x NYY L, 10-2 90% -/- - - - - - -
OF
B.J. Upton
(TB – OF) No new player Notes
x NYY L, 10-2 62% 0/2 0 0 0 0 0 .000
OF
Garrett Jones
(Pit – 1B,OF) No new player Notes
x @Cin L, 6-0 39% 1/4 0 1 0 0 0 .250
Util
Matt LaPorta
(Cle – 1B,OF) No new player Notes
x @Bos L, 12-7 4% 0/2 1 0 0 1 0 .000
DL
José Reyes
(NYM – SS) No new player Notes
x Hou W, 4-0 21% -/- - - - - - -
Starting Lineup Totals
* 9/24
* 4
* 9
* 0
* 4
* 0
* .375
Trends
Pitching
Pos
Edit
Pitchers
Opp
Status
% Started
IP
W
SV
K
ERA
WHIP
SP
Wandy Rodríguez
(Hou – SP) No new player Notes
@NYM L, 4-0 51% - - - - - -
SP
David Price
(TB – SP) No new player Notes
NYY L, 10-2 39% - - - - - -
RP
David Aardsma
(Sea – RP) No new player Notes
Tex W, 4-3 76% 1.0 0 1 1 0.00 0.00
RP
Ryan Franklin
(StL – RP) No new player Notes
Mil L, 9-7 84% - - - - - -
P
Matt Cain
(SF – SP) No new player Notes
@SD W, 4-3 72% - - - - - -
P
J.P. Howell
(TB – RP) No new player Notes
NYY L, 10-2 46% - - - - - -
P
Dan Wheeler
(TB – RP) No new player Notes
NYY L, 10-2 8% - - - - - -
BN
James Shields
(TB – SP) No new player Notes
NYY L, 10-2 59% - - - - - -
BN
Chad Billingsley
(LAD – SP) Player notes
Col W, 5-3 70% - - - - - -
BN
Max Scherzer
(Ari – SP,RP) No new player Notes
@ChC W, 5-2 45% - - - - - -
BN
Jorge De La Rosa
(Col – SP,RP) No new player Notes
@LAD L, 5-3 33% - - - - - -
BN
Robinson Tejeda
(KC – SP,RP) No new player Notes
@Min L, 13-4
soooo this is definitely a schmohawk team. but its a keeper. which three you like?
woah just realized how long that was i should probably have put it in the forums. sorry and this team believe it or not (minus the crappy pickups for spot starts in playoffs) scraped me into second place for the league
reyes crawford reynolds
So obviously 240/30/12 at 3B in the 13th round is keeper material, correct?
@NF: Yup.
@DrEasy: Yeah, that’s what a doubtfielder sounds like to me to.
@Chase: Nice cut and paste job. Crawford, Reyes and Reynolds look fine, but can you trade Reyes or Crawford for someone? They seem unnecessary together. Also, I would’ve normally kept Upton over Reynolds, but your team doesn’t need another speed keeper.
@Scott: In the 13th, I would, yeah.
You touted Reynolds this year? I had no idea. You really should write about that more often.
who has a better 20010 Reynolds or Zimmerman? will zimmerman ever run (10-15 Sb)?
@Fugate: If I were the type to put a smiley face, I would. /potentially done throwing self bone for Reynolds 2009 season.
@Jimmy Ray: Close to a coin flip… Zimmerman is safer, Reynolds will blow Zimmerman out of the water with speed, but will hurt you on average way more than Zimmerman. I’d go with Zimmerman by a hair.
@Jimmy Ray: Oh, and no, I don’t see 15 steals from Zimmerman. Maybe 7, at most.
EDIT: Word.
Zimm had that 11 SB year as a rook…it would be awesome if he repeat that. people forget how young he is… Both Reynolds and zimmerman are part of the new wave of 3rd basemen. will stewart join them next season? he seems to be more of a reynolds type hitter
@Jimmy Ray: Stewart is more of a Reynolds-type, Zimmerman is young but I believe I read that the Nats put the brakes on him so he would stay healthy.
Did you guys know B.J. Upton, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, and Mark Reynolds all played on the same AAU team… They’re all around my age. I cannot even imagine playing that team… Crazy huh!
If this is any indication,
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/what-fantasy-baseball-may-look-like-in-2010/
Reynolds will be very overvalued next year.
@Mic: That is pretty crazy.
@Scott: That’s bonkers. Not sure I really trust that though.
A world where Mark Reynolds hits 44 HRs and David Wright hits 10 is a world I don’t want to live in. (For grammar puroists: In which I do not want to live.)
Nice Twitter joke, though. Is Razz on Twitter?
Living in New York and hating the Yankees at this time of year is like living in Hamburg and hating sauerkraut this time of year. Ergo, the foul mood.
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Who hates sauerkraut? That’s crazy talk. I dislike Twitter so I made a fake name, twitter.com/stanhayes. Rudy hates it even more than me so he made twitter.com/rudygamble and ignored it. Chet/Doc over at Football.Razzball has the Razzball handle… twitter.com/razzball I think he’s pretty active.
wow!! I dont see how you can take a guy in the first round who can kill you in a stat.
that was an interesting mock!
hope they give the prize to the guy that’s bitchin’ the most .
like i should someday care so much
what other people think of my mock draft .
@Jimmy Ray: Yeah, makes little sense. But I think a lot of times people don’t take mocks seriously and just look at last year’s rankings.
@big o: Ha!
@big o: Think we’ll be mocking on Xmas day again this year?
@Steve:
count me in , steve .
have already been to couchmanagers … the guy still is working on/getting new servers .
at least now he has a link up to allow pay-pal donations .
believe it or not , i’ve already tried out a mock draft , about a week ago , but his computer picks are whacked out right now , and seem to be doing some sort of bottom – up thing .
say it ain’t so …… Sayonara So .
and only 41 years young .
@Grey:
as you know ,
am a big jamarillo fan .
but looking at the cubs roster , who’s he gonna help ?
he ain’t gonna screw with d lee , after the come-back year that he had in 2010 .
soriano’s going to continue listening to nobody .
tough to help a guy with a broken shoulder .
which leaves :
ganjavany and baker
EXACTO !! < === (PR street lingo …. or , spanglish , if you prefer.)
i'm liking baker's shot at a decent season , and ,
am wondering february grey's thoughts .
can i get a preview ?
say it ain’t so ….. Sayonara So .
and only 41 years young .
@Grey:
as you know ,
am a big jamarillo fan .
but , in looking over that cubs’ roster ,
who’s he gonna help ?
he’s not gonna screw with d lee , after his come-back year in 2009 .
soriano’s gonna continue to listen to nobody .
and how do you help a guy with a broken shoulder ?
which leaves :
ganjavany and baker .
EXACTO !! (<== PR street lingo , or , spanglish , if you prefer.)
am liking this baker to have a pretty decent 2010 , and ,
am wondering if february grey could be persuaded to give us a preview of thoughts to come .
if this comes through as a double post ,
i apologize .
man losing to machine , today .
damn ….
at least i corrected that 2010/2009 goof .
sorry .
@big o: We may need to have a contest this offseason for who can best decipher your comments.
re: hitting coach — I would’ve went with the guy that turned Zobrist’s career around. Jaramillo is well respected and I think he’ll get out of everyone’s way, which is pretty much all major league coaches do, right?
re: Jeff Baker — He had 4 homers and 1 steal in 226 at-bats. You should be able to get him in any draft you want. Do you want him? Probably not.
@Grey:
taguchi so …. released .
yep … am prolly going with the german kid @ 2b .
@big o: Ah… This damn Google Alert I have setup for So Taguchi news never works.
@Grey:
when it comes to obscure and mundane (/ inane) ,
i ‘ve got you covered .
you funny .
Grey, I need help choosing my final few keepers:
We keep 20 players, standard positions with two Util.
H2H
Stats: SB/HR/R/HR/RBI/FPCT/OPS
W/SV/Hld/ERA/WHIP/HR allowed
TenFor Sure Keepers
Matt Wieters
Adrian Gonzalez
Brandon Phillips
Evan Longoria
Joey Votto
Matt Kemp
Nelson Cruz
Jonathan Broxton
Tim Lincecum
Zack Grienke
Six players that have some question marks but I’ll probably keep anyway:
Chad Billingsley
Edwin Jackson
Nyjer Morgan
Stephen Drew
Ben Zobrist
Andrew McCutchen
That leaves four more spots, and this is the rest of my team:
Asdrubal Cabrera
Chris Davis
Elvis Andrus
Alex Gordon
Cameron Maybin
Clay Buchholz
Michael Wuertz
Carlos Mármol
Luke Gregerson
Huston Street
David Aardsma
Rick Porcello
Madison Bumgarner
Chad Qualls
The only closer I am keeping is Broxton so far, so I might want to keep at least one more because there won’t be many in the draft next season.
Are there any other players you would keep over the one’s I chose?
Thanks
@GopherDay: I’d keep Marmol (assuming he’s the closer, if you have to choose before that’s announced, I wouldn’t keep him), Asdrubal, Andrus and Maybin.
What are your thoughts on Davis/Gordan for next year? Bounce back?
@GopherDay: I’m realistically hopeful, but with Longoria, Votto and A-Gonz, they seem unnecessary.
@Baron Von Vulturewins: Actually, I decided having the fake name was pointless since people find me anyway. Twitter.com/greyrazzball is the new name. For at least this week.
@Grey: I’m kind of suprised you picked Asdrubal for a keeper. Think he will repeat this season or do better?
@GopherDay: I’m a big fan of the Drubal. Which is to say, I moderately like him. He’s 23, 10/20 and .300 potential.
@Grey: What are your projections on Stephen Drew next year?
@GopherDay: I haven’t figured out projections yet, probably 85/20/75/.270 and a handful of steals.
@Grey:
does vin know that you’ve been cheatin’ on him
with gracie ?
@big o: Vin and I have an open relationship.
@Grey: I like everything about Kershaw except: 17.7 P/IP. That is extreme. What is the track record for young guys like this? Can we count on him to drop this to the low 16s in 2010? If not, I wouldn’t expect him to go any deeper into games.
@Grey: Sorry, I think I asked something similar last week. That stat just keeps jumping out at me.
@Simply Fred: I dug around a little about recent young pitchers pitches/inning… F-Her 15.9 to 15.2 from 08 to 09, Cueto 17.5 to 16.9, Ubaldo 16.9 to 16.4 and Peavy 16.6 (age 22) to 15.6 at age 24.
@Grey: Nice work, sir. I like the quality of the comparisons. Prompted me to dig deeper. The below is the average for F-Her, Cueto, Ubaldo, and Peavy in their first years:
yr:P/IP,GS,W
yr1:16.2,18,7
yr2:16.6,32,12
yr3:16.1,30,15
Kershaw:
yr1:17.3,21,5
yr2:17.7,30,8
yr3projected?:17.1,29,11
The patterns are remarkably consistent for young starters.
I think he goes higher in drafts than his projections warrant.
What do you think?
@Grey: That mock draft that Scott linked in #15 had Kershaw going as the #92 overall pick.
@Grey: That draft had Kershaw ahead of Hamels, Billingsley, J. Weaver, Wandy, Lackey. Was this just a crazy draft or is his stock that inflated/good?
Mark Reynolds overall 5th next year in any draft is crazy…
Its interesting to see a mock already, but you cant just say “well he did it last year”
And there was way too much talk on how awesome mark teixiera is and how valuable mark teixiera is…. grey didnt you say how Kendry Morales was basically mark texieria this year drafted about 20 rounds later? IDK the numbers of tex and consistency are nice, but he’s not first rounder to me… as some commentors in that articles forum were saying….
sometimes you win .
sometimes you lose .
but this getting rained out
sucks .
@winnawinnachickendinna:
i have teixeira pegged as a 1st rounder ,
unless someone throws a monkey-wrench
and selects a pitcher .
@Simply Fred: re: Kershaw, he might go higher.
I wouldn’t put any stock into that draft.
@winnawinnachickendinna: I wouldn’t put any stock into that draft. Kendry did do nearly Tex’s numbers, but who would you rather have? Tex is a borderline first rounder.
@Grey: I think Tex will also have better numbers with an entire season of A-Rod batting behind him.
@GopherDay: Maybe a few more runs, but his numbers were already great.
really disappointed that the 2 “guest” umps couldn’t get tickets for these play-off games .
@big o: Ha!
after what we witnessed earlier ,
maybe they were worried that they’d be
pressed into service .
@Grey: @big o:
Tim Mcclellan is the worst umpire since Denkinger, I told you that a long time ago…………………yo’ tim, lasik is cheap right now………….
@BigFatHippo: Did you see they locked his Wikipedia page? People were vandalizing it.
@BigFatHippo: BTW, nice re: the new hitting coach in St. Louis.
where might bobby valentine land ?
and , how do you rate him , as a big league manager ??
i don’t see torre or girardi wimming any awards , this year .
* or winning *
@big o: Nippon?
what a soft-tosser !
@big o: Tosser, indeed.
maybe i
couldn’t hit this guy ,
but one of you two guys
could .
that pitch was
right down the pike .
@BigFatHippo:
you got pikes
where you live >>
well , it wasn’t exactly a sweep .
now the media can focus on
which city has
the rudest fans .
@Grey:
and now , troy patterson :
http://www.rotosavants.com/2009/10/rotosavants-top-1002-for-2010-part-1.html
@big o: To each his own.
I just read the rotosavants link showing Reynolds going at #6. I agree that at #6, Reynolds is a little too risky for my tastes. One thing he does have in his favor, though, is that his stats were pretty consistent month-to-month the first 5 months of the season. But if I recall, Carlos Pena was similarly consistent in 2007 only to disappoint in 2008.