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The Dread Pirate is in the top five for Grey’s most favoritest players.  (People using third person for themselves is in Grey’s top five annoyances.  It’s irony!  Or not, did we ever decide what irony was?  Ask the British, offer them some dental assistance.)  Member when I said Andrew McCutchen was a poor man’s Shane Victorino?  Feign Victorino.  No?  Probably cause I said that about Dexter Fowler.  Nevethehoo!  McCutchen’s the next Carl Crawford.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious! (Assuming you don’t bite into the core.  Who thought it was a good idea to make the core barely different in texture and color than the apple?  I’m one-upping Mother Nature and saying the apple core should be made of titanium.  That’s me, my rules.  Carry on.)  So what did Andrew McCutchen do to be in my sights for 2011 fantasy baseball keepers?

In 2010, The Dread Pirate dropped his K-rate by almost 5% from 19.2% to 15.6% while keeping his walks where they were.  His BABIP was .311, which is probably a little low for him.  The line drives held, the fly balls dropped a little (literally!) and ground balls went up (or is that down?) a little.  In 2011, I could see McCutchen maintaining his .286 average or even beating it a tad.  He stole 33 bases and there’s little to think that won’t hold or go up as he turns 24-years-old.  His OBP is solid for a young hitter.  The power is real, but not real real like he’s going to hit 30 homers.  It’s real enough for a guy who can steal 40 bases.  15 homers seems to be the base.  20 homers doesn’t seem out of reach.  In 2011, 100/18/60/.290/38 looks like a conservative line.  He can absolutely beat those projections.  That, friend, is a top 10 outfielder with upside and a 2011 fantasy baseball keeper for Grey.

  1. Steve says:
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    Steve wishes that Steve could have got his hands on The Dread Pirate a while back.

  2. Lines says:
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    I can’t believe I’m asking this, but who would you keep with a choice between Buster Posey and Dustin Pedroia? 10-team, H2H, 7×7 (OPS). Thanks!

  3. Tony says:
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    arghhhhh the dreads going to be a nice pick next yr.

  4. Mike says:
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    I am in a keeper league with contracts. I have Arod as my franchise player. I have McCutchen as a RFA for this next draft. McC’s salary is going to skyrocket. Should I drop ARod as my franchise player and keep McC?

  5. big o says:
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    down pittsburgh way , # 22 is known as “cutch” .

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I know how both Steves feel.

    @Lines: Pedroia

    @Tony: Ha

    @Mike: Truthfully, that’s not an easily question. Because the positions they play, I’d hold A-Rod.

  7. Greg Gallagher says:
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    I just happened upon a cool McCutchen fact: in his first two seasons, comprising 433 AB’s in 108 games in 2009 and 570 in 154 games this year, his BA and OBP finished the exact same – .286 and .365.

  8. Stephen says:
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    I like Jose Tabata as a cheap alternative to the Dread Pirate and Shane Victorino.

  9. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    please rank :
    choo , dread , ichiro , rios , & , kemp

    thank you .

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Stephen: Yeah, he’s not a bad name either if you’re drafting. Don’t think he has quite the power as The Dread Pirate. So he might be more a poor man’s Angel Pagan. More a 7/30 player.

    @big o: Kemp, Dread, Choo, Rios…

  11. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    re : question # 10

    not past performance , but ,
    expectations for 2011 .

    please .

  12. big o says:
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    you respond faster than i can type .

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: That was 2011.

  14. Earl Battey says:
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    Non-Dread Pirate keeper question. . .

    We have prospect rosters and we’ll be having an expansion draft to welcome a new owner. We can protect one guy, and we rank the rest. The new owner picks one from each tier and each team can only lose one guy.

    I have Domonic Brown and Teheran, and I’d rather not lose either guy. The only way I can do that is if I promote Brown to my “big league” roster next year. I didn’t want to do that because I was hoping he could go through his rookie growing pains on my prospect list; then I could have his years 2-5 rather than 1-4 before throwing him back in the pool.

    Will Brown be startable (top 30?) soon enough for a 2011 promotion to work for me? He could ride my bench in 2011, but he’d need to be playable in 2012. Should I keep him on the farm for a year knowing I’ll lose Teheran or Mike Minor, but I’ll have Domonic deeper into his career?

    Thanks!

  15. Stephen says:
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    @Earl Battey: Depends on who else is in Teheran’s tier. Brown will have the benefit of starting for most of his rookie year, especially if Werth isn’t resigned or he is traded. Brown did have 60 MLB AB, and Teheran is probably another year and a half away from reaching the big leagues, plus I don’t think he’ll be a 10 K/9 pitcher, more along the lines of 8.5 K/9. Still not bad, but I think finding stud pitchers is easier than finding stud hitters. I’d promote Brown and protect Teheran if you want to keep both.

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Earl Battey: Teheran’s far enough away to lose him. Signs point to Werth leaving, but the decision on what you should do could change depending on Werth. I’d want to keep Brown and Minor.

  17. Earl Battey says:
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    @Stephen:

    I’m not sure who else will be in his tier. Possibilities include Moustakas, Wil Myers, Matt Moore, Chris Carter, Kyle Drabek, Brett Lawrie, Shelby Miller, and other guys like of that ilk. In other words, Teheran, as raw as he is, could go if the guy is reading Sickels (recently gave him an A).

    I suppose the smart move is to keep Brown on my prospect list and know that after the expansion draft I’m still guaranteed to have either Teheran or Minor. Fortunately, I don’t have to decide today.

    Thanks for the input!

  18. Stephen says:
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    @Earl Battey: Between Teheran and Minor, longterm I want Teheran if I am the new manager, but if I want to infuse prospect help sooner rather than later I will take Minor. both would be a great pick. Subsequently, you are also not really losing in the scenario. Brown is a definite keep though.

  19. Earl Battey says:
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    @Stephen:

    Thanks. Now if you could just do a “scouting the unknown” post highlighting all of the myriad ways Teheran and Minor could get hurt and/or suck, I’d really appreciate it.

    emoticon.

  20. The Dude says:
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    Do you think D. Jennings will turn out as good as or better than McCutchen? Probably won’t happen next season, but assuming a parallel career line (i.e. if they were both rookies starting next year).

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @The Dude: Better than, but not next year.

  22. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Treat yourself to an indulgence today. You are a great guy and deserve it!

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: Are you saying I should get a hooker?

  24. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: The pain is deeper than I suspected. Only if it would truly make you feel better. :-)

  25. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Try ice cream first.

  26. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Not as bad as I thought. You still have your wits about you! Just do it (the ice cream). :-)

  27. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    who am i to give advice ?
    but ,
    have you thought about how much money
    you’re going to save on salads ?

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: At least $12.

  29. big o says:
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    please , please , puh-leeze , texas rangers ,
    don’t rely on cliff lee .

    win it , tonight .

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Really? I think you always have to root for things to go to a 7th game. It’s where the drama is.

  31. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    find your drama in the national league .

    tonight , hearts must be broken .
    payback’s a pitch .
    one pitch at a time .

  32. big o says:
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    the tarp ?

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: No tarp. What tarp? It’s raining?

  34. big o says:
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    forecast for heavy (?) storm …. 30 minutes after game starts .

    off and on , right now .

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Damn… Was hoping to get the game in before I go out and drink my face off.

  36. big o says:
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    lewis working quickly

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Yeah, that’s how he do.

  38. big o says:
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    did curtis bounce off the bag ?

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Don’t think so. Think the throw beat him.

  40. big o says:
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    nice piece of hitting by elvis …. pulling the hands in

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Yeah, talented kid. Will steal 50+ one day.

  42. big o says:
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    hate to see 2 or 3 rain delays , here .

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Gonna be a short night for Hughes.

  44. big o says:
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    yep .
    hughes might be gone
    before steve gets here .

  45. Steve says:
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    I’m here. Still sick in bed. Catching up on Entourage and The Wire.

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Head cold?

  47. big o says:
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    @Steve:

    i think chicken soup works in your hemisphere .
    (i prefer mine with the bones) .

    get well soon .

  48. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Thought it was. But since I woke up this morning, every time I move it feels like I’m going to throw up. But just managed to make to to the kitchen and back, so maybe I’m on the improve.

    Preferring Season 7 to Season 6 of Entourage FWIW.

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Feel better! To me, Entourage is the same show over and over. Minor conflict, resolution, party.

  50. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Can’t disagree, but at least 7 isn’t all sappy like 6 was.

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Refresh my memory, is 7 with the tequila storyline or is it something else?

  52. big o says:
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    how is this fly-ball pitcher going to survive
    if he can’t strike anyone out ?

  53. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, Turtle gets the tequila thing going. 6 was all about E getting engaged, Drama having a heart attack etc.

  54. Steve says:
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    I’m not watching right now, but I like the way Moreland looks at the plate. Very relaxed. Looks like a natural.

  55. big o says:
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    vlad hits a double at the exact same time
    that Grey orders a double .

  56. big o says:
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    girardi’s got that “i’m gonna get fired ” look on his face ,
    after that cruz bomb .

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ah… Yeah, 7’s a little better, still the same shizz.

    @big o: I don’t think Girardi’s getting fired.

  58. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Too bad about Girardi. Was hoping you would get the calllup!

  59. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    sorry for your loss .

    you were just a ‘shroom , an innocent by-stander , a sidewalk casualty .
    our intentions were never to hurt you , personally .

    there’s always …… next year .

    until then ,
    GO WEST !

  60. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Pretty sure you are wishing you had opted for the ice cream. Goals today:

    1) Breathe in.

    2) Breathe out.

    3) Root for the Giants.

    Not necessarily in that order.

    The sun will come out tomorrow–I see it already… :-)

  61. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Glad to see there’s life in you. Understand that is the “likely” outcome but will be rooting the other way!

  62. Steve says:
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    Can confirm that the sun has come up tomorrow too.

  63. OCCH says:
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    I eat the apple core and i find it delicious… as for mccutchen he’s going to be a perennial 20-40 guy with slight upside to hit 30, though that is unlikely to happen. I’m actually liking the pirates going forward. James mcdonald is a strikeout machine, Jose Tabata is very talented and could push 50 steals next year, pedro alvarez is going to hit 35 homers next year. Neil walker is an all around stud who will be in the running for the batting average title for years to come. i’m liking the lineup 1st tabata 2nd mccuchen/walker, 3rd mccutchen/walker, 4th alvarez, i’m sold on the pirates, especially in keeper formats

  64. GopherDay says:
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    Anyone interested in a Second Annual RazzBall off season mock draft? Last year we did it at Couchmanagers.com, but now you have to pay to sign up or join a custom mock draft…and I don’t want to.

    Anyone know of another mock draft sites that we could use?

  65. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @GopherDay: Looks like Mock Draft Central is only set up for hockey/basketball right now. The free membership allows one mock a day, up to 3/week. However, requires a paying member to set up the draft. At one time Big O was a member, I think. That’s as much as I know.

  66. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @OCCH: They actually have an interesting offense if everything clicks. Their pitching leaves a lot to be desired.

  67. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @OCCH: @Grey: Not sure quite what to make of it, but for 2010 PNC had the 11th best parkfactor for runs, yet 26th ranking HR factor. ??

  68. Steve says:
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    Rollins restored to the top of the order.
    Look forward to him and Roy pulling off the double steal.

  69. big o says:
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    i think texas will get more “props” if they beat philly in the series .
    more so , than san fran , that is .

  70. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ha

    @big o: Don’t think it matters who anyone faces if they will the World Series. Beating Cain and Lincecum twice would be a tough task.

  71. big o says:
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    in the east coast casino game , there are only three teams that matter :
    yankees , phillies , and sawx .

    today was a quiet , pleasant , day at work .
    yankee fans were subdued or hiding ,
    and philly fans were running scared .

  72. Steve says:
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    Is it just me, or has defence been a bit shabby this post-season?

  73. big o says:
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    @Steve:

    i think the “older” shortstops are noticing the play of elvis .

  74. Steve says:
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    Wow, Sanchez gone already. Was Dirty, rather than Filthy who showed up today by the looks.

  75. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Polanco error wasn’t terrible. Confluence of bad timing and slightly off throw.

    @Steve: That’s Sanchez for ya. He’d win a Cy Young if he threw strikes.

  76. big o says:
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    something’s gotta give .

  77. Steve says:
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    C’mon Phils. I want a Game 7.

  78. Steve says:
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    I still got it.

  79. Steve says:
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    Like Ralph Malph, I meant.
    Wow, nice Holds guy to be able to call on.

  80. Steve says:
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    You can’t do down looking.
    Can you?

  81. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ryan finds a way to strikeout.

  82. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Could’ve made some nice money if you would’ve bet the Giants and Rangers in the WS back in March.

  83. Steve says:
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    First A-Rod, now Howard. Remember Beltran and Terrence Long doing the same thing.

  84. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Beltran’s was the most memorable. He still has nightmares about Wainwright’s hook.

  85. Steve says:
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    Yeah. And I think Long had the bases loaded, if memory serves.

  86. Stephen

    Stephen says:
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    @Earl Battey: Ways for Teheran and Minor to get hurt? Let me count the ways in order of seriousness:

    1- Reoccurring blister problems, causing fantasy players to have a reoccurring blister between our index and ring fingers, eventually developing a callous that Minor and Teheran couldn’t.

    2- Strained forearm, causing fantasy players to blame their middle finger from lack of muscle memory.

    3- Early onset arthritis, causing fantasy players valuable time in clicking “add player” off the waiver wire, losing said player to the championship winning owner.

    4- Strained groin/hamstring – causing fantasy players to kick their desk legs on too many times, or maybe it’s our lack of significant others. I dunno.

    5- Rotator Cuff injury – fantasy players throwing their arm up in the air in rage one to many times while lambasting their (Teheran, Minor and now our) previous injuries (numbers one through four).

    6- Tommy John Surgery (Minor still included) – long term result of number one, number two, and number four.

    7- Fatal comebacker – causing fantasy players to throw their desktop tower or laptop against the “shatter proof” office window losing our jobs and or personal motor-transportation outside.

  87. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: So, this guy is thinking about making a league where you pick a division and 1-2 teams from that division to get ALL your fantasy players from.

    I’m not sure if I’m going to join or not, but the top choices of teams has to be…(Keep in mind this is next year and going forward.)
    1.Yankees-BoSox
    2.Yankees- Rays
    3. Phillies-Rays
    4. Rangers-Angels

    Any others that would rank up there or above?

  88. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: How is number 3 a division? 1. Yanks and Rays. 2. Yanks/Sawx. 3. Brewers/Reds 4. Twins/Sox

  89. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Meant Phillies-Braves…Rays were on my mind. Thanks.

  90. Stephen

    Stephen says:
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    @Grey: You’d have almost no pitching if you went with the Brewers/Reds. What about a Padres/Rockies/Giants for a curveball? Obviously the Rays (the AL East Beasts in general), Rangers, and the Phillies are high on everyone’s list.

  91. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Gotcha… Yeah, Braves hitting is kinda bleh. Not terrible though.

    @Stephen: I almost said Rockies and Dodgers. Padres hitting is so bad. Giants hitting isn’t great either, but Rockies/Giants wouldn’t be terrible.

  92. big o says:
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    @GopherDay:

    A ‘s pitching and speed would complement the texas bats .

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