I sit in a circle of a overweight men. One guy’s nervously tapping his foot, waiting to go for a cigarette break. Another guy is downing doughnuts like there’s no “ugh” in them. We all, obviously, have mustaches. Everyone but me wears a Mets hat. The guy next to me finishes his story about how K-Rod’s father-in-law used to come into his pupuseria and hook him up with free tickets. He breaks down rambling about how he can’t drive past a Howard Johnson without sobbing. It’s my turn to speak. Getting out from under that cloud of Minayal is a good start for the Mets, but — and here I try to be gentle — I tell them I’m not a Mets fan. One of the guys interjects, “I have an idear, let me smash you in your melon, you fargin’ icehole.” Before one the “sanitation” guys can move in on me, I tell them about how much I like Jose Reyes for 2011 fantasy baseball.
Sure, it wasn’t all peaches ‘n cream last year. Reyes’ walk rate fell off the map like the Earth was flat. At 5.1%, it was his lowest walk rate since 2005, i.e., his first full season. He wasn’t just rusty either, his walk rate didn’t get better as the year progressed. The health questions are real too. He started the year with thyroid issues and that turned to back and oblique problems. So maybe he doesn’t approach 700 ABs like he used to. He still had 563 ABs last year. And he’s never been a guy that walks 100 times a season. He’ll be only 27-years-old entering the 2011 season. Last year, Jose Reyes’ ADP in ESPN was 74, which alone would have me more than happy to keep him for next year. He’s a top option at an extremely shallow position. Conservatively, I’ll give him the line of 110/12/60/.290/40. If you get a bounce back year health-wise, you’ll have a top 20 fantasy hitter. Or maybe I’m a fargin’ icehole.
I’d bump down the runs in your projections to 90-95, but other than that I think you’re spot on. I wonder where he’ll be drafted, given his solid but unspectacular, minorly injury riddled campaign. Late 3rd, early 4th?
@Razztastic: i’d guess about there, 3rd round might be a smidge early…. i’d go 4th…. 5th sounds too late/BARGAIN….
I’d rather skip the risk, take Andrus a little later, or someone else…. i mean sure SS is shallow, but here’s my view: We all said 3B was very shallow last year, grab arod, grab YOUK, grab whoever early etc etc etc…. then what happens? Well ya they were hurt, slumped or whatever but guys like Beltre’ have a great yr and guys Like Casey McGhee emerge outta no where… I guess my point is take the best talent. Just because SS is shallow doesn’t mean a Starlin Castro wont be a solid play at that position….
I guess we’ll wait and see what Mr. Reyes looks like in spring ball again!
I also think that basically after TULO and HANLEY there’s not a SS i’d take until later in the draft. PERIOD. REYES maybe at the right spot… I dealt with him last year, he was hot, then cold, i dont know if he’ll ever be the OLD REYES….
@Tony:
Very good points. We’ll see if Andrus remains a relative bargain, despite his strong postseason. Hopefully his 0 HRs and otherwise meh stats besides SBs will keep him around the 10th rd or so. .280/100/0/45/45 should be very doable and who knows maybe he even chips in up to 5 HRs too if we get lucky..
when was the last time reyes out-performed his adp ?
@Razztastic: Yeah, I could see him coming out below in Runs, especially since I said conservatively. But I was feeling generous conservative, I guess.
@big o: It’s a few years ago now, but that has no bearing next year if you have at a reduced rate from last year.
@Grey:
let’s not kid ourselves , the pre-season hype ,
with it’s east coast bias , will place reyes as an early
3rd round pick (top 30) (in a worst case scenario) ,
provided he survives spring training without a recurrence
of his lingering hamstring problems .
in re-draft leagues ,if you’re waiting until the 4th or 5th round to draft him ,
you’re coming up empty-handed .
but , i agree , if you’re keeping him at 5th round value ,
you have to go for it and hope he provides better value
than he did in 2010 .
@big o: I agree with everything you said.
@big o: i second that big o, he will be a third rounder on past performance and hype alone…. if he’s coming outta spring ball healthy you’re right he will have an ADP in the 3rd round….
someone will gamble on him in any 12+ owner league by then…
I hate it when i think i MIGHT get a guy in the 4th/5th rounds, wishful thinking lol
With Reyes, it is all about his health. He’ 27. Young enough to heal. (Much more likely than, say a Rollins, 32).
Jun/Jly/Aug he carried a .309 AVG and a sterling .325 BABIP (lifetime .308). With these speed guys, they make their own luck beating out those infield hits. He showed he can do that. The deal is, even if Reyes repeats up-and-down, that’s his bottom. He will return his “depressed” ADP. He really is all upside, which is pretty darn good.
I’m not a guy who likes to take risk with injuries. But, Reyes had his year to get back on track from the disaster year. I’d much rather have him than Ellsbury, Pedroia, Sizemore–guys who likely will have the up/down with a very low likelihood of returning to top form for a full 2011.
Plus, (and I really do like Hanley), it frees you up to go elsewhere with that first round pick.
@big o: @Tony: For all of the reasons you guys are down a little on Reyes, I don’t think he goes R3. The mocks will indicate…
@Tony: Hey, if you get scooped, you always have the Andrus/Castro fall back. Tony, you liked him last year. Give him a second look.
@simply fred: haha im making mental notes fred, its only NOV, but the mental notes are being made!
I owned reyes in my 12 man H2H league, i just plugged castro in when he was hurt or slumping… Positions are just positions… i’ll find some schmohawk to stick at SS!
Dearest Grey,
I know you have missed me so, therefore I have made a triumphant return to commenting (and giving Doc a break for an hour or so). I’m in a 16 Team H2H Keeper, and we do some off the wall draft that starts the first week of January and goes for, like, ever. Anyway, I need to start thinking about my keepers and who I need to try to trade in the offseason. Here’s my squade (says the Cubs fan):
C: Buck, Smooth
1B: Dunn, Ike
2B: I. Stewart
3B: Wright
SS: Castro
OF: Hamilton, Hunter, Lind, Murphy, McLousy
SP: Latos, Lester, Haren, Cain, ErvSan, Bills, Aroldis
RP: Axford, Capps, Storen, Hanrahan
We keep 5, no draft issues, time issues, etc. Just 5 of anything. Right now I’ve got Wright, Hamilton, Lester as 3 locks…who should be the last 2?
Thanks Grey
@Tony: OK, so who you targeting at your top?
@Wilsonian: Dunn and Haren…. Better make sure you go hitter heavy.
@simply fred: of my SS list or overall?
@Grey: haren over latos? i’m for sure latos is on your risky pitcher list with the workload he did, would that be your reason to keep him?
i for one will NEVER draft haren again… at least for H2H….lol
@Tony: Latos went pretty far over his IP last year, there’s concern. Haren, Latos and Cain are all very close.
@Grey: I’d rather go cain then over haren even anymore…. i’m sure in 2011 Haren will have his great first half and maybe even put together a strong second half just to spite me….
I like latos for next year, but his innings he ate up this year are a concern….
@Tony: overall
hmmm idk… Pujols is the obvious #1 after that I’d probably go miggy or maybe Hanley…. lots of guys i like, i’d take votto top 5, cargo maybe around 7 or 8, Tulo at those same spots….? not really wanting anything to do with AROD at all…. Utley isn’t something I wanna mess with…. kinsler BLEH…. I dont know, still early, lots I like, lots I know right now i wouldn’t touch….. YOU?
take notes fred haha
@Tony: Spot on with everything, except Tulo. That’s scary. Lifetime:
PreASB: .263 AVG, .445 SLG
Post ASB: .308, .519 SLG
Pattern too consistent for me ride out the weak early season.
@simply fred: haha… i like TULO in my H2H league, not as much in roto, althought his 2010 line is pretty enticing, you just cant bank on a record august/sept every year from the guy….
@Grey: thanks man. I was actually fighting over those three pitchers, as well. Apparently the Dread Pirate could be had in a trade, so I’m thinking about making an offer for him. If I was able to get him, would you go with Dunn or one of the pitchers?
@simply fred: @Tony: I think Tony brings up a good point. In H2H leagues, it’s a lot easier to swallow a guy who gives you a huge 2nd half when your matchups matter more.
@Wilsonian: Trade one of the pitchers for The Dread Pirate.
@Grey: ya im sure Tulo single handedly won some people their H2H matchups this past year, he was unreal….
in roto you just gotta deal for him in the 2nd half, but again if you’re in a competitive league that will never happen haha
which of hanley’s elbows is the one giving him problems ?
his throwing one ?
@big o: Non-throwing
@Tony: @Grey: Yeah, you guys are going to have take what I say with a grain of salt (and lots of pepper) considering I have no H2H experience.
so , if i’m reading this miguel olivo deal correctly ,
a compensatory draft pick is worth half a million $$ ?
i’m not sure how this works , but isn’t “how high” of a draft pick depend
on what’s available from the team he eventually signs with ?
or , is it a colorado draft pick , once olivo signs with another team ?
cust confused .
@simply fred: that is tough fred, i know 90% of the time when i’m reading advice on sites its geared towards ROTO… which i’ve played 2 years of now thanks to razzball and the RCL leagues. I’ve found a love for both. Each has its own unique challenges. Roto is interesting because you essentially battle in categories, and once you’ve developed a surplus you can trade for guys who would help you in another category, sometimes the deals dont’ even make sense except that they help each owner tremendously…. In H2H i think there’s much more commaraderie(sp?), owners battle each other week to week, in my league its a H2H 10×10 league, so ya i want to win each week but overall its a points league in the standings, you beat a guy 18-2 is much better than winning 10-9, and losing 4-16 crushes you…. so there’s the individual week battles, the overall standing battles, and then the playoffs, which is why some people HATE h2h because it is a bit of a “who’s hot now down the stretch” to crown the champ… in our league there’s 12 teams, 6 make the playoffs, you get hot and you could be the guy that barely snuck in to the playoffs at the #6 seed and you could win it all… which is cool, but kinda ticks some people off that they dominated all year and one week they lose and they’re out, haha, but hey thats the way it works! which makes it so hard to win! Alot of luck involved with H2H….
all in all, i would do both if I were you… its alot of fun.
@big o: Whatever went down it reeks of collusion.
@Tony: oh i’ve played my H2H league for 9-10 years now….
@Tony: Can’t imagine how people deal with TWO roto leagues, much alone a DIFFERENT format. I felt overwhelmed with just ONE roto team (not sure if wife would vote for more, or less, involvement…
.
@big o: Looks like he wont be a Blue Jay after all: http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101105&content_id=16010664&vkey=news_col&c_id=col
Those are some big IFs though. I like it for the Jays only if Olivo declines arbitration. However, the Rockies would be losing at least a supplemental first round pick. That would hurt them in the long term. Is Olivo worth a top 50, or even top 100 pick? Maybe today, but not in a couple of years.
@simply fred: I was in three Roto leagues and feel like I was in two to many.
@Stephen: Lied, I was in four, and it was still two to many.
@simply fred: ha dont tell the wife! ya two leagues is fun, i’ve been in the one forever like i said, the roto is new to me… im finally just grasping how it works…. so many different strategies to employ, its interesting…
That’s it! – My 2011 fantasy baseball team name;
Fargin Iceholes
@Aaron Oz: Or can try Miserable Cork-Soakers.
@Stephen: @Tony: Maybe if I actually experience some success I’ll think about bumping up.
@big o: That’s a good question (if I understand your question right). You are asking whether the # of the pick will be determined by COL or TOR’s record last year. Because the order of the supplemental round between the first and second rounds is determined by inverse order of the previous year’s standings, and Olivo played with COL all year last year, should the draft pick that TOR gets be based on TOR’s record or COL’s record? I gotta guess that it would be based on TOR’s record, because when a type B free agent is lost, the team that loses him gets a supplemental pick, but the team that signs him doesn’t lose anything, so since there’s no transfer of position there, I don’t think there would be any transfer here.
@royce!:
close .
i’m was wondering if it’s colorado’s draft slot , or ,
say , boston’s …. if he’s signed by boston .
stephen’s link showed toronto to end up with 8 of the top 50 picks
if olivo signs on with another team .
quite the coup , if you ask me .
the link also showed that olivo could sign back on with colorado ,
which i think is what grey was referring to when he said it smacks
of collusion .
but wasn’t bernie carbo traded to milwaukee , back in ’78 ,
a similiar situation …. as he was the returned as the “player to be named later” after the pennant chase concluded ?
@big o: I think that the draft slot will not be determined by the team that Olivo ends up on because Olivo is a Type B free agent, so the team that signs him doesn’t have to give up a pick.
So TOR will have a pick in the supplemental round.
In the supplemental round, all the Type A picks (which are picks that that would be determined by the record of the team that signs the Type A free agent) are done first, and then the order resets for all the Type B compensation picks. So TOR would get a supplemental B pick based on their record, since that pick is not being provided by the team that signs Olivo.
@royce!:
thanks for clearing that up .
my only remaining question :
@Grey:
@Stephen:
is there enough talent available in this draft
(where toronto could get a many as 8 of the top 50 picks)
to make the blue jays competitive in the east .
oh , and if so ,
when ?
@big o: Draft picks are a crapshoot. Could have a number one pick and it doesn’t pan out. Hard to say at this point.
@big o: I agree with Grey that draft picks are a crapshoot, but the fact that TOR had 8 in the top 50 in 2010 and will probably have another 8 in 2011, their chances of winning the crapshoot are greater. Plus the fact that they have a lot of great young, soon to be major league ready players and a young major league core, I could see them becoming competitive in 2012.
I’m thinking SP lineup of Morrow, Cecil, Marcum, Romero and The RZE, Drabek, or Stewart.
As far as offensive holes go, SS and 1B seem to be their weakest long term spots, and apparently this Hechavarria dude is pretty great defensively, and according to Stephen, David Cooper could be the 2011 Ike Davis.
Add to that the possibility that one or two of the 2010-2011 draftees pans out, and I’d think Blue Jays fans have a lot to be optimistic about.
Of course, all of this depends on them somehow changing divisions…
I did a little research into the Jays’ history and salaries, and am less optimistic than previously. Their last truly successful year was 1993, when they actually had the highest payroll in baseball at 45 million. Not that it would be impossible for them to make it to the playoffs, but it seems that the Yankees and the Sawx have such a huge financial advantage, and the Rays seem to have a pretty sizable talent advantage, that beating out all of those teams seems pretty unlikely.
Maybe something extraordinary will happen to the C$ to $ exchange, propelling the Jays to their first WS since 1993?
@royce!:
maybe they’re stocking up on bait to make a run at fielder .
isn’t that where his daddy got his start ?
@big o: It is, but as far as I know, Prince isn’t too keen on Cecil, so he would probably only go to TOR despite his father’s history there.
It would be interesting, though, considering that Overbay went from MIL to TOR to make room for Prince.
My take on Fielder is that MIN should give up on Morneau and get Prince. It would be a shame for Prince to end up anywhere else.
@royce!: Hah! Very nice.
The Slugger Formerly Known As Prince.
brian sabaen hires richard simmons as home plate coach .
too obscure ?
@Steve:
Given that he had 5 more RBIs last year than Yuniesky Betancourt, “The Prince Formerly Known as a Slugger” might make more sense. His glyph could be a stylized F-9.
Heh. As soon as I posted it, I realised I should have turned it round the other way.
just checking to see if i’m still on “awaiting moderation” status
hmm …. apparently i’m in exile .
nevermind ….
figured it out .
ha
Sorted all the team stats. Found that the tightest correlation to winning teams for 2010 was “fewest team errors.” Top SEVEN were PLAYOFF teams! (Texas appeared to compensate by scoring a lot of runs.)
Of note: Boston, who made a public display of moving to improving their defense (because it is such a key factor in success), fell from 6th (82 errors) in 2009 to 23rd (111 errors) in 2010. Pittsburgh who was #1 in 2009 with 73 fell to 29th with 127 in 2010.
Not sure if any fantasy impact, but that 7 for 7 fewest errors/playoff teams caught my eye.
1New York Yankees/69
2San Diego Padres/72
3Cincinnati Reds/72
4San Francisco Giants/73
5Minnesota Twins/78
6Philadelphia Phillies/83
7Tampa Bay Rays/85
18Texas Rangers/105
25Kansas City Royals/121
26Florida Marlins/123
27Chicago Cubs/126
28Atlanta Braves/126
29Pittsburgh Pirates/127
30Washington Nationals/127
@simply fred: That is very interesting. Unfortunately, I think it’s more accurate to say that the top 7 are “playoff-ish” teams. The Padres didn’t make the playoffs.
@royce!: Ah, missed by THAAATTTT much… Good Catch! Padres still demo the message: import of D to winning.
@Earl Battey: @Steve: Ha, very nice. I’ll probably have to steal it.
@simply fred: That’s very interesting about Boston, forgot about what a debacle that ‘going for defense’ was. Guess they did have a bunch of injuries though.
@big o: You changed your email, that was why it was in moderation.
Good morning all. Not often I get to say that here. All Blacks playing England in London. Watching live. 4.30am here.
That’s rugby y’all.
@Steve: I take it that’s a big match?
Yup. They’re a bit of an old enemy.
@Grey:
yeah , obviously i’m an idiot .
no response to comment #54 ?
@Steve: We rooting for All Blacks?
@big o: Ha!
There is no other.
Trini-born black like Mia Long’s grandmother
@simply fred: Yep, but I think that the Padres season really supports your hypothesis. I can’t find stats breaking down team defense by month, but in my opinion, the Padres decline coincided with moves (Tejada had a .1 UZR) and injuries (Gwynn, Jerry Hairston, Jr.) that made them worse defensively.
@Steve: Is there fantasy rugby?
@royce!: Ha!
@simply fred: I won one, top four I believe in the two others and 16th in a 20 team league with extended stats (the same league I won the year before). I say playing in three standards really messed up my 20 team league strategy. Other than that, typically people target the same players in each league, and thus it is easy to know your players. On the flip-side, knowing other league mates rosters is difficult. Beyond that, it’s all a matter of how much time you want to spend on each league. The league I won was with a bunch of people that gave up in May. The Top four finishes where in a keeper and RCL (IIRC I was in the top four in RCL 8). The 20 team league, I was hit by bad luck and poor drafting (Sizemore, Billingsley, Quentin, B.J. Upton until I got rid of him in June), J.J. Hardy). You could definitely do it.
@big o: I Concur with Grey. I honestly don’t know much about the 2011 draft class. I wait until they’re in the minors to figure that out. As it currently stands, there are thousands of players that don’t reach the majors, yet alone tens of thousands of college baseball players to remember.
do you keep Reyes at 31 or Wright at 39 in an 6×6 (OPS) league? with inflation #1 player in our league goes for low 50s easily
@Critter Nagurski: I’d keep Wright.
@Grey: I think so, though I have zero interest in playing it.
For the record, the good guys prevailed 26-16.
@Critter Nagurski: wright is defly worth $8 more than reyes if you have to choose… risk, stats he puts up, overall…. so i agree with grey.
@Steve: Nice, now get some sleep.
AFL all star game is on mlb.com and free .
now .
2-2
top of the 6th
@big o: Damn, would’ve liked to watch it, but I’m out. Thanks for the heads up!
big right-hander , jeremy jeffress …. brewers prospect
a tad wild , but a very un-labored 98 mph .
touched 101 .
supposed to have a good slider ,
but saw many straight fast-balls .
@Stephen: Would like to feel that I have “mastered” the roto venue before moving on. (Had pretty much done that with “points” leagues.)
I have managed to get myself lined up in a “super-active, all/most past-winners” league for RCL next year. The thing is I could improve my game and not know it. Will be interesting to see managers that are used to being at/near the top scrambling at the bottom (which, by definition, will have to be the case).
BTW: After pondering our “strategy” post and discussion I am thinking the biggest “hole” in my game last year was keeping my bench spots continually filled with MRs. That did, indeed, make it relatively easy to keep up in pitching stats. However, even though I felt that I was pretty adept at working the wire for hot hitters, that alone wasn’t enough to keep me competitive in the hitting game. I feel that I NEED TO WORK ADDITIONAL HITTERS IN (ACTIVE BENCH SLOTS) ON MONDAYS AND THURSDAYS. It seems like the “dirty little secret.” Managers didn’t talk about it–maybe they just take it for granted. Anyway, a new angle to ponder, and prepare for, the off-season.
@simply fred:
seems as if you could speed up your quest to “master” the roto venue ,
by participating in more than one league per year .
injuries (“luck” factor) could derail your efforts , setting you back a full year
through no fault of your own .
@big o: Would’ve liked to have seen Jeffress…
@big o: Point taken. Yes, do see the frailties of the game beyond one’s control. Must have been frustrating in the one league where the guy dropped his team early season (made not one add/drop) and still finished fifth. Would feel like quite a slam to stay up nights all season to finish below fifth.
Really comes down to the time. At this point, only willing to commit the myriads of hours to prepare for one team. Might have to be more accepting of “grasshopper” status. Not willing to concede that quite yet.
@big o: He has marijuana issues, if he gets caught again, I believe he’s kicked out. He has something like a career 10.5 K/9 but with 5.5 BB/9 with his control improving just this past year when he became a reliever.
@big o: “Mastering” the game”Nice!”, but, for me, the “action/interplay” even more important. If it were ALL about the winning, I wouldn’t share my (all-knowing
) inner secrets.
@Stephen: Sounds like the second coming of the Freak. (not referencing the control issues)
Will be interesting to see where Crawford ends up. Amassed 17 of his 41 steals in 35 games against BOS and NYY., who were ranked #1 and #4 (of the 30 MLB) respectively in SB allowed. Against BAL and TOR, ranked #21 and #28, he got 2 in 32 games.
RE: SB. Don’t expect Hanley to return to the days of 50+ steals. 30-ish likely tops. In 2010 he faced the stingiest teams in SB-allowed.
@simply fred: There will be a new catcher in Toronto and possibly in NY.
@Grey: THANKS for the reminder! Understand this stuff is fluid. The “flags” help me to watch those kinds of changes and adjust accordingly. Yeah, teams can go from worst at giving up SB to the best with one add/drop.
@simply fred: Eh – I think you need to take a more free-form approach. Go commando, as it were.
Play H2H without any preparation or analysis.
I dare you
@Steve: Sounds Phineas to me. I’m more Agent P.
@simply fred: I’m going to dominate every fantasy league in the Tri-State area!”
@Steve: You speaka’ my language.
@simply fred: Yes, yes I am.
Love that show.
@Steve: I remembered. Tougher to do each day. Sponge Bob seems to be taking over. Monster Trucks for the big guy.
@simply fred: Yeah, it’s pretty fluid.
@Grey: Couldn’t agree more.
What?
Oh.
Thought you were talking about beer.
Sorry – carry on.
@Steve: You getting lit up there on a Monday?
@Grey: Nah.
You know me, I can never resist an opening for a lame joke.
@Steve: You are ale.
@Grey: ‘Ale and ‘earty?
@Grey:
to which teams could carl crawford go , that would increase his
fantasy value over what it would be if he remained with the rays ?
prolly the yankees , for sure .
but , the angels ??
are there any others ?
@Steve: Ha!
@big o: Since he derives so much of his value from speed, I don’t think he loses that much elsewhere. NL’s not great for less offense, but talking marginal wherever he goes. Not like there’s that many stronger offenses though. So Yanks, Sawx, Rockies… The usual good hitting teams.
@Grey:
for some reason , i have it in my head that if playing for the angels ,
runs will be harder to come by , green lights will be given less often ,
etc . different opposing pitchers , etc etc .
in short , perhaps a precipitous drop-off , not only from past seasons but
from what might be expected of him .
regression ?
maybe /maybe not
bounce back candidate for 2012 ?
quite possibly .
unless he goes to the yankees , i’ll probably pass on this guy for 2011 .
@big o: I’m not a fan of Crawford either way, so I’m not going to push you towards him.
@big o: @Grey: Hopefully.you guys have just reversed him into some keeper goodness.
@Steve:
here’s YOUR chance to “live the dream” .
new zealand’s 1st raftee !
stardom awaits you .
http://web.theabl.com.au/index.jsp
as an informative piece of inspiration , you might want to read up :
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/07/cuban_baseball200807
You shouldn’t grab me, Johnny. My mother grabbed me once… ONCE!
Grey never gives up on his mancrushes…well except Rios.