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Third base is not getting deeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.  It’s just not.  If Jacques Cousteau played fantasy baseball and was still alive, he wouldn’t even need a snorkel to see the bottom of the 3rd base basin.  Shoot, Jacquese from The Real World: San Diego could probably see the bottom.  There’s guys at the top (Longoria, Wright, Sandoval, Zimmerman, Youuuuuuk, Reynolds, A-Rod and Young).  There’s plenty of schmohawks at the bottom (Cantu, Blake, Lowell).  But there’s not a whole lot of guys at the bottom that could move to the top.  You’re gonna have to deal with it.  After Michael Young, there will be a drop off.  Some of the upside picks at 3rd will be Ian Stewart, Casey McGehee and Gordon Beckham.  Each of those guys will probably get a fantasy baseball keeper or sleeper post dedicated to them.  Today, it’s 2010 fantasy baseball keeper (and sleeper) time as we look at Gordon Shumway Beckham.

In 378 at-bats last year, Gordon Beckham came away with the line of 58/14/63/.270/7.  The Royal We is not going to sit and say add 50 games worth of stats to his numbers and look at how beautiful they are, but it’s fair to say he will get more Runs.  Ozzie hit him 2nd for 218 at-bats.  There’s no reason why that should stop.  So let’s give him 85 Runs.  Since we can’t have our ice cream and cake and cake and eat it too, I’m not going to give him any more RBIs.  If he’s batting 2nd, he’s not also batting 8th. (It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.)  Beckham stole more bases when he hit 2nd than anywhere else in the order.  (Not many, but still it is true.)  So let’s say he gets 14 steals.  He did steal 18 bases in his last year of college, so it’s not a huge termite-infested limb we’re traipsing out onto.  He hit more homers from the two hole.  Not sure what lineup protection he actually got from the middle of the White Sox order, but let’s assume he did.  So let’s give him 18 homers.  Seems pretty conservative.  I like that.  Less you expect, less you’re disappointed.  He strikes out a decent amount and he’s prone to slumps.   Average can come down from .270.  Doesn’t have to, but can.  Let’s assume it does.  Again, less expectations.  Okay, so we have a 2010 line of 85/18/63/.260/14.  That’s a top 10 3rd baseman with upside for a bit more.  I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.

90 Responses

  1. Mowses says:
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    omg he’s an alien

  2. big o says:
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    i just don’t see the up-side .

  3. Rob says:
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    Grey, I agree with your points, but here’s the deal. 12-team mixed league, he was my farm pick last year (assigned a $5 salary). So now do I keep him or not? He’s probably not going to return $5, but between draft inflation and a strong attraction to one’s farm picks (after all, I “discovered” him in our league and have to now groom him) I’m leaning towards keeping him. Thoughts?

  4. With the depth of the 3B basin being so very shallow, this has got to affect the Keeper value of your 8 guys in the Top tier, no? Zimmerman is an interesting case. He finished 110/33/106/2/.292. Teixeira finished eerily similar at 103/39/122/2/.292. I’m not suggesting that you keep Zimm in lieu of a 1B like Teix, but in respect to getting stuck with Cantu/Blake/Lowell if you don’t, the 3B top tier value will be at a premium in 2010. Might you Keep Zimm over some “not sure thing” players from the deeeep OF basin (maybe outside the Topp 10)…like CarGo, Cruz, Holliday (seeing how he dropped a ball last night—value takes an overnight hit), or even Sizemore? No steals from Zimm, but plenty more fairly reliable options to choose from at the OF spot.

  5. youngid says:
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    That’s the line of a top 10 3B? Yikes, those are Clint Barmes numbers. Gotta go with a top 3B next season.

  6. Quintero says:
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    Is Chase Headley a sleeper in anyway?

  7. Tony says:
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    @zombie: wow i guess i’ll be looking at Zimmerman in the 3rd or 4th round then for sure in my league. And pray he doesn’t do what he did last time i thought he’d be a stud. Regress.

    I’ll draft 12th since I won my league. I would love to see Longoria fall but I doubt he does. We’re doing a total redraft but assiging 3 year contracts this next year. If people are smart the younger studs will go at a premium, instead of the ARODS.

  8. Tony says:
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    Longoria- young stud, tons of potential
    Wright- will he hit 30 HR’s again in that park?
    Sandoval- can he really keep up that average?
    Zimmerman- solid #’s kinda boring, if he could throw in a few sb’s
    Youuuuuuk- gotta love a red sock in fantasy
    Reynolds- gonna be a bust, watch out
    A-Rod- getting older, but next yr could be huge, healthy hip, he might slip in drafts like he did 2 yrs ago?

    Young- bleh

    what a cast, i dont really like any of these guys, maybe longoria, but he’s still got some improvements to make, he swoons alot it seems….

    3B sucks

  9. airlifting says:
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    his BABIP was .294 last year…that’s not even league average. can’t imagine we should assume his average will go down. rather, assume it will go up.

  10. Rotobotic says:
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    I look at that projection and see Alex Gordon written all over it, a little speed, a little power and an average that is going to hurt you but not kill you. I think that Gordon, who has more shine lost than a 2000 year old genie’s lamp, will go for less in auctions.

  11. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    Grey – i’m presuming that Beckham loses his SS option in Yahoo. If you wouldn’t mind, please give me your top four keepers out of this bunch:

    Billy Butler
    Beckham
    McGehee
    McCutcheon
    Coghlan
    Furcal
    Choo

    I also have to make an excruciating choice for my #1 keeper, between Kemp, Fielder, Wright or Halladay. It really comes down to Fielder or Kemp, however, and I am at a loss concerning comparative values of these two studs. If I keep Fielder, I wouldn’t need Butler. I do have several months to think about it, though.

    Thanks, als always
    Paulie Allnuts

  12. brett says:
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    I’m no Grey but if you buy into the school of SAGNOF, keep Fielder and let the McCutchen replace Kemp’s steals? I have to assume all the other top tier first basemen will be kept by your opponents, whereas you can fill out your outfield on draft day.

    Unrelated: Does anyone know how many games it takes for Yahoo eligibility? I think i’m jumping all over Chris Davis next year if his ten starts at 3B is enough.

  13. big o says:
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    is aramis now a schmohawk ?

  14. Cain Fan says:
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    Agreed, I am contemplating keeping aramis as well in my keeper league. Currently I am keeping Teix, Utley, Jeter, Kemp, Werth, CC and am deciding between 2 of Aramis, McCann, Cain, Ubaldo, Peavy. Thoughts?

  15. JR says:
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    Grey,

    Where would those numbers rank at 2B?

  16. Tony says:
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    @big o: I wouldnt invest in Aramis anymore. Too risky.

    So of course next year he’ll stay healthy and go 35-100 .300 LOL

    @brett: even tho davis disappointed many this year I think he’ll be a SLEEPER again too many people watch him go anywhere from the 8th round to the 12th round next year…. everyone knows if he figures it out he’s a top 30 talent if not better….

  17. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @brett: your logic makes sense to me. I have been leaning towards Fielder, but Kemp’s across the board contributions are tempting. The Dread Pirate will hopefully continue to improve; then at about mid-season Pittsburgh will trade him to the Yankees, who are tiring of the mediocrity of Melky Cabrera, and Cutch will then lead the league in runs scored. At least that is my hope.

    As per Yahoo eligibility – Batters need either 5 Games Started or 10 Games Played at a position to gain eligibility. Pitchers need 3 Starts to gain SP eligibility, 5 Relief Appearances to gain RP eligibility.

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mowses: Ha!

    @Rob: He’ll earn $5, I’d keep him in a vacuum.

    @zombie: I’m not keeping Zimmerman over Holliday or Sizemore. Cruz and him are close.

    @youngid: Read the top 20 1st basemen post from yesterday about Mark Reynolds.

    @Quintero: I like Headley, but it’s harder to get excited about Padres hitters.

    @airlifting: It could up, but I wouldn’t assume that with a young player still getting used to the league.

    @Rotobotic: Gordon will go for less, but he has more risk at this point.

    @Paulie Allnuts: I’d keep Kemp, Butler, Dread Pirate, Beckham and Choo.

    @brett: It should be enough.

    @big o: I listed the top, mentioned some names at the bottom, didn’t list the middle.

    @Cain Fan: McCann and Aramis.

  19. Trip Wildhack says:
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    Grey, is there a decent chance Beckham gets moved to a MI position for 2010? Know it’s sometimes hard (considering Ozzie and Co.) to figure out what that particular team may or may not do, but a MI move down the line would obviously affect his value.

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Trip Wildhack: 2nd base really isn’t that different than 3rd base as far as player depth goes. But, yeah, he might get moved to 2nd.

  21. brett says:
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    @Grey, Paulie: Thanks for the feedback.

    @Tony: You’re right, he’ll still be on a lot of radars, but even round 9 or 10 works for me. I made the mistake of reaching for him this year but i’ll take my chances again if i can’t lock up A-Rod or Longoria. It might be my tragic flaw at times but i hate getting stuck with old guys who have no upside and boring numbers to begin with.

  22. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    Hey Grey,

    It’s been a while…sorry I’ve been a way so long, but I had to go cold turkey on baseball for a while once my season(s) ended. Have to do it every year after going 24/7 for 6 months. Did you miss me? ;)

    I ended up winning two of my three leagues this year…many thanks to you. A much deserved daquiri will be sent once my lazy league commissioners pay up. I now think of you when I walk past the trophies…or when I eat a Taylor Ham with cheese on a hard roll…whichever comes first in my day.

    Enough with the fluff…I’ve got two keeper questions for you:

    (#1) I own both Buster Posey and Carlos Santana in a dynasty league. If you had to keep one and trade the other, who stays and who goes?

    (#2) Any worries about Matt Cain for next year? Someone worth targeting in a dynasty league?

    Thanks.

    MJC

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Commish Cauda (formerly Mike): Awesome, glad you won! Trade Posey. 2) No real worries. He probably won’t be a sub-3 ERA pitcher but he wasn’t really one this year either.

  24. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    @Grey: Thanks again…the two leagues didn’t pay a lot, (I lost in the semis of the big money league), but winning is good, no matter how much the payday.

    I ask about Cain because I can keep him for $5 in a dynasty contract league with a $70 salary cap (35-man roster). I’m thinking $5 is a little much for him…that kind of money is usually spent on a stud arm.

    I guess I am asking if I Cain can be that kind of arm? He’s already a solid #2 starter on a team with good pitching. But do you think he can he make the next step?

  25. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    in a 14-teamer , everybody keeps 3 .
    fielder and sandoval
    and now ,
    papelbon or bourne ?

  26. big o says:
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    i’ve decided against brian roberts (see above)

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Bourn over Papelbon, but not crazy about either.

  28. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    yeah , in a sleep-deprived coma ,
    i inadvertantly dropped hamilton , with 4 days left to go , in the season ,
    after carrying him all year (no dl) .

  29. big o says:
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    @big o:
    and yes , he was my # 1 pick
    10th over-all

  30. Anyone in the White Sox lineup makes me nervous…the Ozzie factor. You never know when hes gonna slot your guy behind 2 .280 OBP guys.

  31. Mr Baseball says:
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    Baseball’s Most Unusual Trade happen in 1972 between the two startinb pitchers for the yankees

    Mike Kekich · Fritz Peterson -Swapped Wives

  32. Mr Baseball says:
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    hope that Gordon Beckham – Chad Billingsley trade in my 20 team league doesn’t end up biting me in my ass

  33. Trevor says:
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    Why is Reynolds an automatic bust so suddenly. I see him puting up similar numbers next year maybe a little bit of a drop but its not of any of my worries I get him and Zimm as keepers.

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Trevor: Not sure he’s going to be a complete bust, just depends what you’re expecting. If you can handle a 34/10 season batting .250, then there’s no bust. But for where he’s probably going to be drafted, it’s dangerous to rely on a guy who strikes out 200 times.

  35. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    yanks a 3 to 1 favorite ,
    but it’s the only game in town .

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Just hoping for a good game.

  37. big o says:
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    slide
    fool

  38. big o says:
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    or just keep going

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: He’s so skilled, just doesn’t seem like his head’s in the game.

  40. big o says:
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    you see that dark-hair girl in the vest , about 3 rows deep , behind the plate ??
    she’s just taking your order , punching it into that hand-held gizmo , and taking your money .
    if you make the mistake of tipping her ,
    you’re going to be real surprised at the look on the face of the server , who actually brings you the beer/food that you ordered .

  41. Mr Baseball says:
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    “An A-bomb from A-Rod” (Alex Rodriguez)

    “It’s a Tex Message!” (Mark Teixeira)

  42. Mr Baseball says:
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    mvp of game goes to LF Umpire–Phil Cuzzi.

  43. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Mr Baseball: ha,liked both those,beckett seems to have trouble with guys on,he clearly throws better from the wind up,and i dont know how victor threw anyone out this year,those 2 rainbows he just lobbed to 2nd were terrible

  44. Steve says:
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    I probably said this at this time last year, but I’ve just read about the weather expected for Denver and it just doesn’t seem right that when the game’s best players actually have to be at their best, the weather couldn’t be less conducive to them being so.

    Isn’t it the great summer game? Baseball, of the playoff variety or otherwise, just shouldn’t be played in those caps with the fold-down ear flaps.

    I don’t have any solutions, just seems a real shame, is all.

  45. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: Grey, on vaca, so came to this post late. Still, I am having trouble getting past the parade of flameouts for KC. I can’t put my finger on the reason, but I can’t get past being troubled by it. Here they are. You fill in the blanks for Butler for 2010.

    Teahen:
    2006:18HR/10SB

    2007: 7HR/12SB

    2008: 15HR/4SB

    2009: 12HR/8SB

    Gordon:

    2007: 15HR/14SB

    2008: 16HR/9SB

    2009: 6HR/5SB (in 49 games)

    Aviles:

    2008: 10HR/8SB(in 102 games)

    2009: 1HR/1SB (in 36 games)

    Butler:

    2009: 21HR/1SB

    2010:_HR/_SB

  46. DrEasy says:
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    @Steve: I agree… Gotta shorten the regular season.

  47. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Or play in a neutral, warm climate stadium.

  48. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: Thoughts regarding track record of KC phenoms?

  49. justin says:
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    In a 16 team keeper: keep 16

    Beckett/Manny
    or
    Wainwright/Mclouth

    thoughts?

  50. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: RE: “A Razzball Reader’s Keeper Mock Draft”. Any chance of getting an update on how the league did for 2009?

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Simply Fred: I don’t see what, say, Aviles has to do with Billy Butler.

    @justin: Beckett/Manny

    @Simply Fred: Sorry, not following.

  52. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Simply Fred: Answer regarding Butler confirms you see no connection.
    RE: “A Razzball Reader’s Keeper Mock Draft” A league had asked you to critique their mock draft last year. You did. I thought it was interesting. Just wondering how they placed at the end of the year. (date of the post was 12/17).

    I have been following your advice and looking back, first.

  53. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Sad, sad, sad waste of big time additions, Cardinal fans expectations, and a Hippo’s sweet, sweet love for his Redbirds…………………going into a deep depression now, do not contact me for at least 2 weeks.

    Anybody got a knife? Industrial size bottle of sleeping pills perhaps? Plastic bag and duct tape, maybe a very strong rope, it’ll take a big one to hangahippo………………….somebodygimmeabeerdammitttttttttttt

  54. @BigFatHippo:

    That’s how the playoffs go…the hot hands get the gold. The best system imo was the original system where the pennant goes to the team with the best season record and they play a WS. If it was up to me it would be no interleague games at all, no divisions, no playoffs. Then every game is a playoff game all year long, and the best Team shines through over 162. But its not good for TV or making money so it’ll never come back.

  55. @BigFatHippo:

    It played into your guys hands a few years back at least, that average pitching staff got hot at the right time and got you a title.

  56. big o says:
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    @BigFatHippo:
    “sleep , pretty darling , do not cry …”

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: At least you don’t have to watch Ryan Franklin try to get out Ronnie Belliard again.

  58. BigFatHippo says:
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    @big o: No lullabies please, I’ll stab a fork in your eye………….and enjoy my golden slumber.

    @Grey: @Grey: I got nothin…………blah

    @Elijah: Yeah, but we’re not here to talk about the past……….

  59. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Elijah: Thanks for the kind words though……………….excuse me, but do you happen to have a pitchfork i can borrow, perhaps a carving knife, mayhaps a Remington 1800??????????

  60. big o says:
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    @BigFatHippo:
    not all hippos , but you , in particular would look good
    in green and gold .

    this offer good for only 24 hours .
    sleep on it .

  61. BigFatHippo says:
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    @big o: or blood red………….could I borrow your razor or pistol, tranquilizer darts, perhaps a bazooka?????????

    Sorry Grey, this has taken a very dark turn, kinda like Blue Velvet…………

  62. jamiesonmj says:
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    @Grey: in reference to your top 20 first basemen post: youd still put miggy ahead of reynolds? Id say the top 4 (reynolds being 4 for me at least) were a tier above the rest!

  63. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: Did an informal accounting of your pre-season recommendations for 2009. Came up with these results:

    1. “DON’T KEEP THESE GUYS”: NINE and ZER0
    2. Overrated Players for 2009 Fantasy Baseball: Top six ranked overrated proved to be flops.
    3. 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Top 20 Starters: FOUR and ZERO. (I just evaluated the ones I thought were fence-line calls).

    Keepers, Top 20s, Targets: not quite as good, but I remind myself that this is kinda’ like picking needles in a haystack.

    What I think I learned was that your word was extra gold when:
    1) recommending to stay away from certain guys and
    2) to listen to everything you have to say about pitchers.

    If I had followed your advice, I would have avoided Josh Hamilton, BJ Upton, Manny Ramirez, and Edinson Volquez. Certainly, my end of season standing would have been better.

    Just thought I would pass along that readers might want to pay extra attention when you are down on a player, or up on a pitcher.

  64. big o says:
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    i originally thought that i would link bs&t ‘s “i can quit her” ,
    but after 5 years of alex rios ,
    this is more fitting .

    i have had enough .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLgdcGEqgcw

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: There’s hot lines if you need help.

    @jamiesonmj: I’d probably put Reynolds above Miggy, but as I said in the catcher post I was trying to be objective by listing my preseason ranks vs. ESPN’s end season ones.

    @Simply Fred: Cool

    @Andre Ethier’s Mom: Go Doyers!

  66. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Counting chickens, but a Dodgers-Angels series might be just the ticket…

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I know, that would be pretty cool. Now to try and get tickets.

  68. Steve says:
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    @Grey: And pretty warm, thankfully.

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: You back from vacay?

  70. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yeah – got back Sunday your time. Was just gone a couple of days.

  71. Steve says:
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    Where was this Pavano when I needed him?

  72. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: How was the trip? Good times?

  73. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, was nice. My wife’s aunt and uncle have a little holiday home at this place so we just stayed there.

    It’s not like it’s miles of golden beaches or anything like that – just nice to be away from work and the city for a little bit.

    There’s the Pavano I know!

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Sounds nice. Pavano only disappoints when you’re expecting something positive.

  75. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Oh – that’s OK then. He’s really no different to anyone else on my teams.

  76. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    seems pretty evident that we’re headed for an all-southern california world series .
    as if rte 60 traffic wasn’t bad enough ,
    now it will be just one big parking lot , linking sodom to gomorrah .

  77. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: I don’t think we’re quite there yet. Yankees were, after all, the best regular season team.

  78. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    and when are we going to get some announcers that know something about the games they’re calling ?
    this guy sounds surprised anytime a colorado player , not named helton , gets a hit .

  79. big o says:
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    @big o:
    edit
    (and tulo)

    this is in direct reference to car-go’s liner to left , earlier .

  80. DrEasy says:
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    Poll: will Lidge blow the save there?

  81. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Most announcers are morons.

    @DrEasy: Of course.

  82. DrEasy says:
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    Why did Tulo even swing at that pitch? Just let Lidge walk you!

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