Feliz Keeperaños
August 20, 2009
Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Keepers
This week we’re starting a new weekly column that will be here every Thursday, it will be all about fantasy baseball keepers. Since many fantasy baseball keeper leagues don’t decide on their keepers until the start of the new season, I figured I’d go over some fantasy baseball keepers from now until next spring. These aren’t guys that are obviously keepers. You won’t find Hanley or Pujols here. These are guys that you might be able to grab in deep leagues and hold onto for next year on the cheap. Who doesn’t love a bargain?! My dead grandmother loved a bargain. Her death and bargains were in no way related. Filene’s Basement was completely acquitted in that case. Though me and Grandpa we believe. We believe…
I don’t think Neftali Feliz will have much value this year as he’s currently being used. But this isn’t about this year. This is about fantasy baseball in the year 2010, when we’ll be able to take a pill that tastes like a four course dinner. The lack of Neftali Feliz value this year is actually making him even more attractive for next year. The Rangers are going all anti-Dusty up in this mug and limiting Feliz’s innings. In 2008, Feliz threw just over 127 innings. This year he’s on pace for nearly the same amount of innings. Nice. We don’t want him worn out in 2010. I see the worst case scenario being the Rangers hold him down in the minors next year until May. Best case, he’s up from jump street and gives you numbers comparable to Johnny Cueto pre-All-Star Break with more Ks. In deep leagues, I’d absolutely keep Feliz if the price were right. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:
Carlos Gonzalez – Sure, he’s hot right now. But let’s put that aside. Because as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size. Gonzalez has been a five-tool prospect for a while now. (Five-tool doesn’t mean he should make some weird fetish porn.) He can hit 20+ homers and steal 20 bags as early as next year.
Billy Butler – Butler’s moobs seem like they’ve been in puberty forever. Sprout some hairs and mature already! I don’t think Butler’s going to explode for 40 homers next year or suddenly have any speed, so don’t take this the wrong way, but Butler’s an early favorite to be on all of my teams next year like Reynolds this year. If he can get out of his training bra next year, he could be a cheap 90/25/110/.320 guy.
Tags: Billy Butler, Carlos Gonzalez, fantasy baseball, Neftali Feliz
August 20th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Would you rather have Carlos Gonzalez than Dye or Hawpe in one year leagues?
@bwass: Nope
August 20th, 2009 at 11:54 am
I am thinking about keeping Feliz. I can either keep him with a 21st round pick or Scherzer with a 13th round pick and I can only keep both for only 2010. Which is a better price?
@Ewoks: Feliz
August 20th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
I have 9 solid keepers and I get to keep 4 more. No problems making Butler keeper number 10?
August 20th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Drew Stubbs – no steals – but game ending HR. Thanks Stubbie (Cordero owner here).
@bwass: Not at all.
@GTS: He looks pretty bad.
@GTS: Stubbs that is.
August 20th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Its early but I love talking about keepers…
Do you keep any of these solid starters?
Danks
Shields
Garza
Kazmir
Wandy
August 20th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
@Grey: Was it the 1/5 or the 3 K’s that caught your eye in particular? For me, it’s the strikeouts.
@bwass: In the right circumstances, I keep Wandy, Garza and Shields. But it matters who else you’re keeping.
@mgeoffriau: I watched his at-bats. He looks lost. If he strikes out less than 30 times a month with every day ABs, I’d be surprised.
August 20th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
I am finally pulling the plug on Brandon Phillips in my h2h league. Assuming that contacting a disease is not an issue, which one of these do I go after? Hudson, Barmes or the embarrassing itch of Asdrubal.
@Clay Dalrymple: Barmes
August 20th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
@Grey: I’m in a 12 Team H2H keeper league. I can only keep 1 of my first five picks in the draft. Who would you choose: David Wright or Prince Fielder?
Thanks
@Paulie Allnuts: Fielder
August 20th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
I’m looking to move carpenter while his value is so high and he’s well, healthy. What type of Hitter should I look for? What type of hitter should I expect? I need an OF or SS. Thanks Grey! I just want to say thanks for running an awesome site. The only thing that would make it cooler would be Phil Collins playing in the background as you enter the site.
August 20th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
@Paulie Allnuts: With reference to the previous post, I am clearly a better golf smartass than I am a baseball one
August 20th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
1. I’m in a league that allows 5 keepers, but they go up $5 in salary (with standard $260). In a league like that, what would be your approach to keepers?
The best ratio of value to salary (a young guy who was picked up off waivers for $1 and will be $6 but will produce like $15)?
Or the the best difference between value of production to salary (a star who went for under value in last year’s auction at $15 so $20 next year, and who will produce at $35 of value)?
August 20th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
@Corey: i’d see if you could pry away a tulo. obviously a lot would depend on what kind of SS the other owner could plug in. as for OFs, you might be able to catch someone thinking they are selling high on morales. otherwise, maybe a granderson? nelson cruz? gamble that bj upton gives you 6 solid weeks?
August 20th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
@Steve: Ha! Maybe you are too young to remember Tommy Aaron. Always felt bad for the guy, as I do any sibling or offspring of a Superstar, at least those who don’t measure up.
The two I mentioned (Aaron and Ripkin), but especially Pete Rose Jr. I often wonder how Pete Jr. was treated by dad. Others, like Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr., have surpassed their father, of course.
Actually, I miss most of Grey’s references, as I don’t know or care about much that has happened in the world in the last 25 years, especially in music, being perpetually locked into the 70’s. But when he mentions Tommy Aaron, or better yet, Arky Vaughn, my spirit perks up. Maybe some day he will reference Nap Lajoie or, best of all, my fav baseball player of all time, Rube Waddell.
@Corey: Currently working on getting Phil. Go for somewhere in the Tulo, Ellsbury, Bay or Holliday range.
@kellemonster: I’d go after guys that will be the biggest difference, but I’d prefer to have plenty of money going into the draft. For instance, I’d probably keep Nyjer Morgan for $10 over Carl Crawford for $30.
August 20th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
@Paulie Allnuts: I think I was 5 when he stopped playing, but baseball wouldn’t have been on my radar. Was rugby only back then.
Sidenote from Wikipedia:
“The only other brother of a 500-home run man to play in the majors was Rich Murray (brother of Eddie Murray), who hit 4 home runs in a brief major league career.”
August 20th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Thanks for all the advice, Grey. I’ll buy you a drink when I get home tonight.
What “round” would each of these guys go for in a “fresh” 7×6 roto keeper league (full MLB universe) (traditional 5×5 category plus we count OBP, SLG%, and HLD as extra)?
Carlos Beltran
Jay Bruce
Adam Lind
Pablo Sandoval (he’s my backstop this year, but won’t be C-eligilble (celigiable?) next year)
Dan Uggla (Country Strong Jr.?)
Ryan Zimmerman
Nate McLousy
Tommy Hunter
Adam Wainwright
Brian Fuentes or Heath Bell (RP . . . I know . . .)
August 20th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Grey:
A more philosophical question.
My 7×6 roto full-universe keeper league (again, 5×5, plus OBP, SLG%, and HLD) lets us keep up to 8 players for up to 4 years, but we get no “bargains” because we don’t replace draft picks. Instead, we give “supplemental” picks — in between rounds — for each player less than 8 that you keep.
As such, I tend to select keepers based on this question: would this guy go in the first 8 rounds in the next 1-2 years in a “new” draft?
Is that the right approach given my league settings? Or is there another approach you would suggest?
Perhaps a question for a column rather than for this forum.
Regradless, you are the best!
August 20th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
same question as #24, but about-
Hunter Pence
August 20th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
@ Grey: Is rollins considered in that range?
August 20th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Would you rather have Snider or Reimold as a final OF slot from here on out and as a potential rookie keeper for next season?
August 20th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Grey I’m on the cusp of playoff contention right now in my nonkeeper h2h league. I want to stream 1 spot just picking/dropping guys who are currently hot. Russell Martin has been absolutely useless and I recently picked up Mike Napoli, so you think it’s safe to drop Martin in a 10 team? I lack power so would you rather drop Martin or Loney?
On the other side, who would you rather pick up? Barmes or Gonzales? I’m leaning towards Barmes. Thanks Grey.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
@Smell The Glove: I’m not an expert like Grey, but Snider seems like he’s got the pedigree.
Also, ZIPS (rest of season projection) suggests that Nate aint that great: (.277 AVG/5 HR/13 RBI) while ZIPS (ROS) sees Snider as having a little better hand: .250 AVG / 8 HR / 25 RBI.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Stubbs steals a ‘ homerun and stikes out 3 times -
August 20th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Borbon starting even with Cruz back. Nice.
August 20th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
I kind of got use to Cruz on the DL list
August 20th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
@mr baseball: not me,i want 12 more hr`s
@Nuke LaLoosh: What round? How many teams? Sounds like you’re going about it right by considering if someone would go in the first 8 rounds.
@Corey: He is.
@Banks: Drop Martin. I’d grab Gonzalez.
@Smell The Glove: Snider
August 20th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
I’m in a 16 team 5×5 roto keeper league where we keep 3 players and lose the round they are drafted in.
My Current keeper options are
Wainwright – 6
Zimmerman – 7
Harden – 7
Jones – 9
Vazquez – 11
Votto – 13
Snider – 15
McLouth – 16
Napoli – 16
McCutchen – 21
I have a chance to get
Youks – 15
Werth – 9
In return for Youks and Werth I would have to give up Votto and Zimmerman. Should I pull the trigger? Or put another way, rank these keepers for next year based on value and projected output. Easy question, I know!
August 20th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
I’m in a 16 team 5×5 roto keeper league where we keep 3 players and lose the round they are drafted in.
My Current keeper options are
Wainwright – 6
Zimmerman – 7
Harden – 7
Jones – 9
Vazquez – 11
Votto – 13
Snider – 15
McLouth – 16
Napoli – 16
McCutchen – 21
I have a chance to get
Youks – 15
Werth – 9
In return for Youks and Werth I would have to give up Votto and Zimmerman. Should I pull the trigger? Or put another way rank these keepers.
My current keeper thoughts are McCutchen in the 21st, Votto in the 13th and Adam Jones in the 9th.
@Jeff: Youk, Votto, Werth, Zimmerman…. So yeah, I would.
August 20th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
@Grey: damn,espn reporting sheffield was released?i knew he was an idiot but damn
@AL KOHOLIC: Ha! Leave it to Sheff.
@AL KOHOLIC: I just saw Sheff on the bench smiling.
August 20th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
@Grey: 12 teams, mixed league; 25-man rosters, 3 DL slots, 1 catcher
Thanks for the tip. I keep struggling on how to assess keepers in this league because a late-round pick (like Lind) is really only a “bargain” the year you draft him/pick him up because all of your keepers essentially become the “first 90″ picks.
Here is my best guess:
Carlos Beltran (8)
Jay Bruce (10)
Adam Lind (9)
Pablo Sandoval (7)
Dan Uggla (9)
Ryan Zimmerman (4)
Nate McLousy (8)
Tommy Hanson (I know I said Hunter; I was mistaken) (15)
Adam Wainwright (6)
Hunter Pence (8)
I am loathe to cut Bruce and Beltran, even though they fall outside of my “first 8 rounds” analysis.
@Nuke LaLoosh: Beltran’s a 3rd to 4th rounder next year. It’s real early for this analysis. I’d say Beltran, Zimmerman, Sandoval, Pence, McLouth and Wainwright, in that order, are 8th round or better.
August 20th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
@Grey: good,i dont like him but i own him
August 20th, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Would you draft Aaron Hill ahead of Uggla and Alexei next year ?
August 20th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
@SamYo: i would,no question
August 20th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Is it just me or does every Shields start unfold the same way? Some early (albeit minimal) run support, a bit of WHIPpage and then sweating for 4 innings or so, expecting a 7th or 8th-innning disaster.
Excuse the doom and gloom, but I’m 1-34 across three teams so far today.
August 20th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
who gets more saves from here:
papelbon, soria or macdougal?
August 20th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
@paulzone: paps
@Steve: I was thinking something similar. He’s like the one pitcher I own that I cannot bear to watch.
@paulzone: Flip a coin. Papelbon.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
@Grey: Add to Shields, I started Marquis yesterday and Hammel today (in different leagues).
My fingernails are already down to my elbows.
@Steve: I picked up Hammel in one league, chickened out and benched him.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
@Steve: @Grey: jaba and hamells have done the same thing,jaba only getting 6 more starts from here on,so the damage might be limited
August 20th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
Who would you rather have next year, Kemp or Werth? They are both going to have similar keeper value and I’m trying to figure out who to target on this last day for trades. First instinct is Kemp.
@Jeff: Kemp
@AL KOHOLIC: They’re probably a lot closer than anyone wants to believe.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
@Grey: i’m leaning toward papelbon…i have to give up beckett for him but the other “free” option is macdougal (dropping coffey)…i dont need the start pitching and already a projected 40 innings over the max ip limit.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
grey, you were sure right about haren…i should’ve traded him at the break…i can’t even get a mediocre closer for him now…his era is still under 3!!
August 20th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
So far tonight, Matusz is looking solid and Cecil is not… Should I drop the latter for the former?
@paulzone: I’d just grab MacDougal.
@royce!: I wouldn’t own either.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
@Grey: I’ll take that as a yes! (and a no.)
August 20th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
actually, krod comes off waivers tonight…i can put in a claim for him dropping coffey…then if that doesnt work, go macdougal for coffey….how do you like that? or just go macdougal now?
@paulzone: Try for K-Rod first.
August 20th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
rank, rest of the year: Coghlan, Alexei, Everthclear
thanks
August 20th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
@ Grey: Thanks for the help once again. Let me know when you get some Phil Collins background music. Preferrably In the air tonight.
@Wizo: Alexei, Coghlan…
@Corey: You’ll be the first to know.
August 20th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Billy Wagner had 2 K’s in his first inning against the Braves. Fast ball up to 94MPH, command solid. Not much of a sample, but quite impressive. Somebody will deal with the Mets in the next 11 days – he’s a heck of a lot better then at least 1/3 of the present day closers.
August 20th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
Byrd should be owned, right?
Drop Snyder, Borbon or Diaz to pick him up?
@Paulie Allnuts: Yeah, he looked pretty good.
@Steve: Drop Snyder to grab him.
August 20th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Grey, is it time to cut bait on V. Wells? Who am I kidding – it was probably time 2 months ago. Would you drop him for Cuddyer, Coghlan, or Bryd?
August 20th, 2009 at 6:41 pm
@Grey: Thanks.
Is the Cook going to burn us tomorrow? That’s right – I still own him.
@steamer: Grab Coghlan for Runs/Average, Cuddyer for power.
@Steve: I own him too. I’m not starting him tomorrow.
August 20th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Fantasy League trades:
Would you trade a closer (Francisco/Jenks) for Ibanez? I need saves but this is a keeper league.
Would you trade Cliff Lee for Ryan Zimmerman or Josh Hamilton?
Would you trade Porcello for Braun?
And finally, I can pick up Bedard off waivers. Should I hold him for next year?
August 20th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Sorry forget Ibanez deal above.
August 20th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
@Grey: Hey Grey, I’ll be 9 rows behind the Cards dugout for Tuesday nights game. What’s the going rate for a Razzball sign?
Does it double if I run out on the field? Triple if I do it naked?
These are things I ponder when given the opportunity…………….
August 20th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
Waaaaazzzzuuuppp!!? with Julio Borbón – single double homerun + 3 rbi’s and no stolen bases – if he keeps this up I will have to sit him
August 20th, 2009 at 7:59 pm
Paulie Allnuts Says:
August 20th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
Billy Wagner had 2 K’s in his first inning against the Braves. Fast ball up to 94MPH, command solid
its going to take alot more of these performances before grey rates him anything above – Brain Freeze
fantasy players are crazy – they will all add he to their long relief closers and not take a second thought
August 20th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
8.0 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 7 K
You can’t keep a good wand down: the Wandwagon rolls again!
August 20th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
@mr baseball: Ha! We do scurry after potential closers, don’t we? I recall the herd mentality/insanity when we all picking up potential Nats closers. Fantasy addicts fighting like crazy housewives on Black Friday over the opportunity to pick up Joe Beimel. I would think that Wags has a better pedigree then Beimel, or the other Razztastic wannabe’s from a number of teams.
I’m not about to pick up Billy at this point. But if the Mets do manage to make a trade with a contenda…
@BigFatHippo: Ha! That would be awesome. You have to do that.
@mr baseball: Hehe
@ecw: Nice!
August 20th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
furcal or aybar for the rest of the year?
@Martin: Aybar
August 20th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
# 80 Paulie Allnuts Says:
August 20th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
@mr baseball: Ha! We do scurry after potential closers,
Hope you tyoe fast when wagner gets traded
August 20th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
keep up the keeper column even in February
August 20th, 2009 at 8:53 pm
hope I can type type the word type
August 20th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
@mr baseball: I won’t have to tyoe. I just have to push a button!
Ditto to keeping the keeper column (say that 10 times fast.)
@BigFatHippo: We will all be looking for you! Hopefully, some one will video it, and get it on You Tube. Or maybe ESPN!
August 20th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
Sheffield is now threatening to leave the Mets – dr jekyll and mr hyde
August 20th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
Morneau looks like he is heading to the DL . Not good for my RCL team, especially at this time of the year. Let’s look at the progression: dizziness, inner ear infection. Next week, panic attacks and general anxiety issues. The week after, therapy groups with Votto, Khalil Green, facilitated by Greinke…Finally, he will need an extended period of time-off…perhaps until next April…
@Paulie Allnuts: That’s awesome!
August 20th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
better stash for the DL A. Cueto, B. Liriano C. None of the Above?
@struggler: C
August 20th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
I JUST GOT MUTED IN MY 12 TEAM H2H LEAGUE FOR SAYING WE DONT NEED TO GO TO A 40 INNING MIN BUT KEEP IT AT 32 LIKE ITS BEEN FOR A WHILE…..
LONG TIME POSTER, I JUST KEEP SWITCING MY NAME…. KINDA F’D UP, I DRINK ALOT THO….
WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK…. 32 HAS BEEN GREAT, 40 WOULDN’T BE TAHT BIG A DIF OTHER THAN IT WOULD PRETTY MUCH MAKE PITCHING WATYYYYYYY MORE VALUBALE THAN HITTING, CAUSE RIGHT NOW ITS 50/50 AND MAYBE EVEN LEANING TOWARDS PITCHING…..
THE ANAL ANNIE COMMISH IS PUSHING THIS, AND WHEN I HAVE SAID MY PIECE HE CRIES, BLOCKS ME, AND THATS THE STORY….. KAPEESH
@TYY: That sucks. I don’t understand why they’re bothering to switch it. Is it not working now? 32 seems fine.
August 20th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
@TYY: I think that when you sober up you will not be so upset. It’s really no big deal. But if drinking gets you this angry over a 32 or 40 inning min, maybe an AA meeting might be a good idea to cool you off. Just a suggestion…
August 20th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
@Paulie Allnuts: @Grey: lol THATS MY POINT GREY…… 32 has been working great, its been a good balance betweeen pitching and hitting…. if anything right now our league favors pitching!
and paulie its not about 8 innings i realize thats not the biggest deal, but in our leauge you have to right now decide on who you are going to throw, who you’ll set, etc…… there’s tons of strategy……. i really worry about it getting to the point where you just have to throw about all your SP’s…. which thats dumb, its more fun right now where you have to make decisions….
by the way we have a super comptitive 12 team H2H league, each week theirs alot of decisions to be made, and i’m just afraid if it goes to 40 it will lessen that, AND I HATE LEAGUES WHERE ITS SET IT AND FORGET IT…..
BORING!!!!!!!!!!!
August 20th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
WEEK TO WEEK BS IS STUPID
I AM PRETTY MUCH AGAINST ROTO…..
IT JUST SUCKS WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO THE SECOND HALF AND HALF THE TEAMS ARE OUT….
BOOOOOOOO
August 20th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
@TYY:
Might want to ease back on the tranny fluid.
August 20th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
I’m keeping ARod & BJ Upton. I have one more to choose from Wandy, Hanson, Stewart, Nyjer and Butler.
Thinking Hanson then Nyjer. Thoughts?
August 21st, 2009 at 8:33 am
What is CarGo’s keeper value in $26 5×5 auction with 14 teams? I just picked him up and can keep him for $10. Is that too high or will he fetch much more next season at the auciton.
I have one spot open and need to decide between Clay Bucholz, Stephen Drew and Carols Gonzalez. All at $10. I am loaded at OF and SP but Drew really killed me this year.
@Jackie: Hanson seems fine.
@CheezWhit: I’d keep Drew there. $10 is a bit much for CarGo.
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