Don't be shellfish...FacebookTwitterGoogle+

This was covered a bit in the Chone Figgins blurb in Friday’s Buy/Sell, but it’s worth giving it its own post.  Fantasy baseball trading deadlines are right around the corner, time is slipping…slipping…slipping into the future and your fantasy baseball teams need to lose yesterday’s lunch or get off the pot.  The worst feeling is coming within a few points of winning and pulling up short because you held on too tightly to your players.  In October, there won’t be an award for being 50 steals greater than everyone else, but losing the championship by 1 point because you didn’t trade for power.

If you have a sizable lead anywhere, strengthen weak spots.  For instance, you have a 15 save lead over your nearest competitor, but a 25 save lead over the pack.  You see a trade partner for your Papelbon, but they’re only willing to give you Mark DeRosa.  You try to convince yourself to do the trade for the symmetry of owning DeRosa and de la Rosa, but decide Papelbon is worth more.  So in the end you fall 5 homers short of 1st place, but you’re 35 saves up on everyone.  A Papelbon in the hand is not worth two points in the standings.  In one year leagues, now is not the time to be worrying about the intrinsic value of a player.  Only worry about the value they are to your team.

Excess saves – chuck ‘em for what you need.  Have Bourn, Figgins and Taveras — well, I’m not sure how you’re even competing — but trade them for some power.  You need to start acting now.  There’s no time like the present… The present is a gift… Sleep with scratchy rear, wake with smelly finger… Fill-in your own cliché.  Just git r done!

122 Responses

  1. Shmorgie S. Board says:
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    Carpe Fantasiem. Word, Mr. Grey.

    One caveat: some of us are waiting ’til the “realish-world” non-waiver trading deadline, to see about some Closer jobs. The guy in 2nd is catching up to me in both Ks and SVs, I got some decisions to make!

  2. chris says:
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    Alrite, so I am in a dynasty keeper league and my middle infield has been alot of fillers. I have derosa who will lose his 2B eligibility for next year, felipe lopez who is….felipe lopez. and erick aybar who is filling in admirably. im in the bottom 3rd in doubles and runs and was offered a deal of me getting brian roberts and giving up Kyle Blanks and JA Happ. Now I have been trying to move Happ for a while since ive read just about every article under the sun online saying that he will be exploding. However, I like Blanks but am deep at 1B and OF.

    Do I pickup Roberts and move Happ and Blanks or am I giving up too much youth?

  3. peter says:
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    I’m speculating on saves; if Heath Bell is traded, who’s next in line for SD? Luke Gregerson?

  4. peter says:
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    @chris: I’d hold tight. Full disclosure, I’m not a huge Roberts fan. Every year there are other MI who offer decent average and speed – and that’s what Roberts, now in his 30s, offers. Cases in point, look at Kaz Matsui & Chris Getz’s numbers in the last month or 2 compared to Roberts. And, depending on your league, you can get guys like that much cheaper (or free).

  5. Sos says:
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    Dunn/sandavol for lince/doumit. No brainer lince side right?

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Sos: I’d take the Lincecum side.

  7. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    jorge cantu thoughts from this point forward?

    i’m looking to shore up 3B so i’m trying to move for youk, but if the price is too high, the same guy has cantu who i might get for cheap.

    right now through trades i am manning 3B with edwin encanacion, and the other guys on the market are the aubry huff’s and ryan zimmerman’s of the 3B world, who i just don’t see being substantially more valuable than edwin that it’d be worth trading away what’s being asked in exchange.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Cantu is capable of putting up Youk like numbers over a month, but he obviously hasn’t shown it much since April. Worth taking a gamble on though if you get him cheap enough.

  9. @ Grey: Was wondering your thoughts on my pitching staff

    Wainwright, Garza, Shields, Harang, Cueto, DLR, Bucholz, Maholm, latos, Cecil, (Marcum, Hudson), Lidge, Franklin, A. Bailey, Madson

    3.78 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 779Ks, 52 W, 52 SV – team stat line

    has me wavering around 8-10pts in those cats…do you have confidence in my staff to maintain and improve on these #s or do you think I need to add another strong arm?

    My league is very close down the board on all cats too….

    Thanks

  10. kR says:
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    have 5 closers and currently shopping Bell and Price (worth dog shit lately) for a solid starter, already have Beckett, Lackey, Shields for horses…..what is a realistic target….already tried J. Santana and could not pull the wool over his goggles. Already offering of Bell and Lackey for Santana, but I didnt think that was worth it…..back to the point…..what is realistic target….(currently trying Oswalt). thanks!

  11. GTS says:
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    Tim Dillard worth looking at in 10-team mixed league?

  12. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    and in another development, was just tentatively offered via email a braun for longoria swap. this is a 12 team 5 man keeper league with no keeper restrictions (like contract length or anthing). opinions?

  13. Xar says:
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    I think Rob is a moron if he’ll give you longoria for Braun.

  14. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Xar: well keep it on the DL. but looking braun has been pretty consistent this year whereas longoria was a monster in april and has been pretty mediocre since.

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: I don’t have confidence in your staff. But it sounds like a fairly shallow league, so I’d watch matchups and the waiver wire.

    @kR: Oswalt’s decent. Maybe try for Gallardo, Burnett or Price straight up for Volquez.

    @GTS: Nope

    @ThePoonTycoon: I’d want Braun.

  16. vinko says:
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    Is E. Aybar worth using my #1 waiver claim in a 14 team? Currently, i’ve been using Andrus?

  17. Hardcore Midget says:
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    Speculating on saves, please rank these MRs based on who could be the best payoff:

    Wuertz
    Johnson
    Weathers
    Rauch
    Lindstrom

    Want to pick up at least one of these guys today.

    Apparently Cincinnati just decided they were also sellers.

  18. 12 team 5×5, with a good amount of roster spots….i used all of my bench spots on pitching since my hitting is solid: Inge, fielder, wright, howard, carlos lee, ellsbury, werth, mclouth, fragu, garrett jones, 3 shmohawk MIs

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: Gotcha… Yeah, I’d watch matchups and waivers.

  20. Mann of Sandd says:
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    Worth noting that this is also the time of year where gains don’t come easily…two weeks ago i completely overhauled my keeper team because i wasn’t going to have a shot without revamping my pitching staff….now starting felix, beckett, wandy, lester, halladay instead of felix and yovi and pray for rain….first two weeks after the trade, and i’ve lost 2 points, but positioned to pick up several over the last two months if pitching goes as projected….just hope i didn’t wait too long.

  21. Sam says:
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    Is Josh Willingham for real or playing over his head? If I trade for him can I expect 10 HRs and a .850 OPS the rest of the way?

  22. Mr Baseball says:
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    Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are among the teams interested in Heath Bell.- interesting – you won’t be saved by the Bell anymore

  23. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Sam: he can.but he can also go 1 for 18,right now he is hitting well enough to play but i wouldnt think that he sollidifies your problem all year

  24. Mr Baseball says:
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    if bell hits the road – would E. Mujica be nexted in line

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mann of Sandd: Hopefully it works out.

    @Mr Baseball: I’d think so. Maybe Gregerson, but I’d look at Mujica first.

  26. peter says:
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    @Mr Baseball: “saved by the Bell” Zing! Boom goes the dynamite!

    @Mr Baseball: Grey said it would be Mujica or Gregerson. Mujica was getting more time in the 8th, but Gregerson’s been there, too, in the last week or two.

  27. James says:
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    In a 12 team 5×5 roto dynasty league and I’m tied for 2nd place only 2 points out of first. I’m getting killed in steals and trying to get Figgins (2yrs contract) but he wants Kershaw(4yrs) or Billingsly(2yrs) for him. I would have to back fill my SP with Zimmerman or play matchups off the wire. I’m contemplating Bills but it’s very hard to do. I only have him on contract for 2010 then he’s free anyway. Would you trade Bills or offer a prospect like Maybin(4years) and Hughes (2yrs)? Thanks!

  28. RIP Harry says:
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    Ibanez or Qualls/Holliday?

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: I’d do Bills for Figgins, or Kershaw, but both is a lot. I’d also trade Maybin and Hughes for Figgins.

    @RIP Harry: Qualls side if you need saves.

  30. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Gregerson has been striking guys out like crazy.

    Is there an MR factory in San Diego or something?

  31. Sam says:
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    Pick 2 to start for this week:

    Alex Gordon
    Mike Lowell
    Adam LaRoche
    Pedro Feliz

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, Petco.

    @Sam: Gordon, Feliz

  33. Dingo says:
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    I recently held a

    (oh my God we’re having a)

    fire … sale!

    (Oh, the burning, it burns me!)

    Where I made all of my closers available, since I had a sizable and growing lead in saves. I managed to ship off Hoffman and Fuentes for Luke Scott (meh) and Cole Hamels (yay!). I also managed to pull off one of those moves that I thought only happened in fantasy experts’ fertile imaginations. One of my trade partners went on to overtake my chief competitor in saves, so I helped my team by helping another team.

  34. I’M STARTING BECKETT AND UBALDO VS. NYM AND OAK RESPECTIVELY…

    I’m debating on Shields vs. NYY @ tampa?

    He’s 1-6 lifetime with a 5.73 vs. NYY, not feeling…. grey? or anyone?

    12 team H2H league min 32 innings per week. Hate throwing so many guys early, they get me buried the other guy can be very picky about who he throws and work the system…

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Dingo: Nice!

    @Tony Y: I’m starting Shields at home, though my league is 15 team too, and I wouldn’t in a 12 team league.

  36. @Grey: thanks confirmed my thoughts… too risky…. even shields at home isn’t good enough in this situation.

  37. gza says:
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    Start Wandy against Chi tonight? Ubaldo against NY?

  38. Chase says:
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    I think this post is especially for roto. Circumstances could differ a little bit for h2h. besides that…great post

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @gza: I’d start both.

    @Chase: Yes, mostly for roto. Thanks!

  40. DrEasy says:
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    This week I’m thinking of sitting Washburn and Braden against the right-handed heavy Jays line-up. Am I crazy?

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @DrEasy: I wouldn’t sit Washburn.

  42. Chase says:
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    @gza: i would

  43. Gubbins says:
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    I’ve got Quentin stashed on the DL, but nowhere to play him. I’ve been offered Josh Johnson for Ludwick. I’d then activate Quentin and drop Rolen. Should I do it? Is Ludwick’s resurgence for real? Is Quentin going to be productive? Best guesses?

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Gubbins: I’d try and trade Quentin for Johnson if that doesn’t work, then I’d do the aforementioned trade.

  45. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    arroyo has been removed from being tuesdays starter,possible trade

  46. GTS says:
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    It’s do or die time! I’m in 2nd place and doing pretty well. How do I improve this team? Or maybe I can’t?

    Martinez, Victor C CLE
    Howard, Ryan 1B PHI
    Kinsler, Ian 2B TEX
    Longoria, Evan 3B TB
    Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI
    Theriot, Ryan SS CHC
    Fielder, Prince 1B MIL
    Holliday, Matt LF STL
    Jones, Garrett 1B PIT
    Upton, Justin RF ARI
    Werth, Jayson RF PHI
    Bourn, Michael CF HOU
    Hardy, J.J. SS MIL
    Rivera, Juan L. LF ANA
    Hart, Corey C. RF MIL
    Stanton, Michael OF FLA

    Anderson, Brett SP OAK
    Baker, Scott SP MIN
    Jimenez, Ubaldo SP COL
    Lincecum, Tim SP SF
    Nolasco, Ricky SP FLA
    Shields, James SP TB
    Blanton, Joe SP PHI
    Lannan, John SP WAS
    Bedard, Erik SP SEA
    Capps, Matt RP PIT
    Cordero, Francisco RP CIN
    Nathan, Joe RP MIN

  47. 8 says:
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    Who do you like out of Aardsma/Fuentes/Bell?

    I know Fuentes is probably considered the best of the three, but Aardsma has been lights out – has it been long enough to consider him the real deal?

  48. Pops says:
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    @GTS: I’d sit tight. Buckle your seatbelt and get ready for the stretch run.

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Anyone else included? Any word about Codero?

    @GTS: Where are you in the standings? Where can you make up ground or hurt the 1st place team?

    @8: Fuentes, Bell, Aardsma… In that order.

  50. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Grey: havent heard anything concrete or about cordero,just arroyo will probably be gone

  51. Pops says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Rotowire reports that Bronson Arroyo will make his scheduled start on Tuesday.

  52. GTS says:
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    @Grey: 2nd place and we are really matched up well in HR/RBI/R/SB/ERA/WHIP… I have more saves and he has more wins. My batting average sucks arse though…

  53. Pops says:
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    Arroyo will take usual turn in the starting rotation on Tuesday, the Reds’ official Twitter site reports. Previously Tuesday’s start was listed as “to be announced” on their Probable Starters page, but that wasn’t a reflection of any potential deal.

  54. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Pops: im hoping they do trade him,just espn said he was removed as the starter

  55. BabyBeluga says:
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    Bottom barrel MR speculation – Have H.Bell so thinking Mujica, but…
    Weathers, Mujica, Grabow, Gregorson (order?)

  56. Pops says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Where do you think he would end up?

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GTS: Is this H2H? If so, hold tight.

    @BabyBeluga: Mujica, Weathers, Grabow…

  58. BabyBeluga says:
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    @Pops:

    Rotoworld reporting the Yanks as partners for Arroyo.

  59. Steve says:
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    Effin’ eff. Votto thrown out of the game.

  60. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Pops: glue factory,or singing for beer at the red dog,ive been searching,and havent seen anything else at all,espn threw me a curve and i looked like chris davis

  61. Pops says:
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    @BabyBeluga: That makes sense.

  62. GTS says:
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    @Grey: H2H – I will hold and cross my fingers then… my work is done.

  63. bobbo says:
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    @Grey: Starting Danks tonight even though he’s struggled against MIN?

  64. Prince says:
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    @Grey: Great column, especially for those new to FFB like me. Thanks.

  65. Mr Baseball says:
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    nice start for Shields – they got him early – he is an important pitcher for me -

  66. GTS says:
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    @Mr Baseball: I’m glad other people are starting him also. I’ve been getting second thoughts with the way he lets so many people get on base.

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @david: Yeah, had read that. I was waiting for him to talk about his preseason predictions on Chris Davis. Nice trade of Street.

  68. @Steve:

    Good to see hes showing fire (and production) tho, makes me feel better about not trading him for Haren early in the year. It was still a blunder but not near as bad as it was looking.

  69. Steve says:
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    @GTS: I have him going too, but only because I got distracted (damn you work!) and didn’t get him out of my lineup in time.

    Seems to have (kinda) settled down. I suppose some run support is out of the question.

  70. GerryAtric says:
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    Which side you guys pick?

    Cano for Werth?

  71. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GerryAtric: Cano because of his position, for UTIL, go with Werth.

  72. GerryAtric says:
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    thanks grey

  73. Mr Baseball says:
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    Broken Shields

  74. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Just got offered Johan and Cantu for Fielder.

    Tempting but if Cantu doesn’t get hot I would have to play (cringe)………. Billy Butler at 1B. WWGD?

    Also, nice Ted Striker reference in the last post. Striker, Striker…………whap!

  75. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mr Baseball: Nice

    @BigFatHippo: That’s more than fair for Fielder, but it sounds like you can’t afford to lose Fielder.

  76. Wizo says:
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    Jason Hammel @ Metco Wednesday vs Johan?

  77. Doc says:
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    Giants get Garko, Giggidy

  78. Sos says:
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    Cain/Doumit for Dunn/Pablo? I’m thinkin no. Would you take it if he threw in any of the following? Harden/Price/Duke/Piniero?

  79. albertalbert says:
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    Grey –

    I’d give up
    carlos lee, adam dunn, aardmsma

    get

    lincecum, ethier

    it’s a keeper league (keep 8), so i probably wouldn’t keep dunn anyway. i still feel like i’m giving up too much, but i haven’t kept up on ethier or know much about him. thoughts?

  80. Sos says:
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    @Sos: For #83, if he threw in any of the following pitchers on the Cain side. Sorry

  81. DrEasy says:
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    @Doc: Really? What does this do to Garko’s fantasy value? I was thinking of picking him up in one league.

  82. Pops says:
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    Pac Bell is certainly not a hitters park. He may see an increase in playing time which would help his value.

  83. Doc says:
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    Andy Marte getting called up.

  84. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @david: @Grey: Not a doctor, but I believe that James is confusing steroids with HGH. Steroids don’t make you feel young. They make you bigger, strong, with a tendency towards impulsive rage, and a good chance that you will shorten your life span. HGH is likely a chemical equivelant to the fountain of youth. James also apparently believes that Andy Petitte will wind up in the Hall of Fame,and then lobby for his ex-bud Roger Clemens; both of those eventualities are, to be polite, not centered in reality. James has not made any prior statement on steroids. It took him 10 years to come up with this?

  85. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: Where do I get some of this HGH you speak of? Could I buy a dime bag from you?

  86. BKK says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: I thought you were going to Vermont for the week without Internet access?

  87. Steve says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: Indeed. Just to add, that the thing about steroids is not that they make you bigger/stronger on their own, rather that they allow you to train harder for longer, and recover from said training much quicker.

    So you can go back to the gym the next day and do it all again.

  88. Mr Baseball says:
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    do you think that Ryan Garko will hit better in the NL or the same old sh_ _

  89. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @BigFatHippo: I’ve been out of the scene for awhile; lost my contacts.
    @BKK: U
    Unfortunately, I am not that easy to get rid of. I didn’t realize that Vermont is more civilized since the time of H.P. Lovecraft. Even got to go to the Ben and Jerry Factory.
    @Steve: Exactly correct. Also, one of your head sizes increases, the other decreases.

  90. knighttown says:
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    Motivated by today’s post. I’m way up there in power and solid everywhere but saves but still 6 points back with 87 points in an 11-team non-keeper, 10 category league.

    I’ve got depth at CI (Prince, Pujols, Teix, Chipper) so I’m thinking I could move Prince for an ace SP. I’m in first in wins and top 3 across the board but I’m not sure they can hold up (Vazquez, Oswalt, Weaver, Harden, Hanson, E-Jax, Kuroda).

    My Prince + McDougall + Kuroda for his Lincecum + Mariano + Felipe Lopez (all over bench guy). I don’t need to make the trade but does it make my team better?

  91. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    On another note, my lovely wife needed an Outfielder yesterday, she wanted to pick up Josh Willingham, but I persuaded her to pick up Pat Burrell.

    I think that I will neglect to tell about the two grand salami’s by said Willingham.

    And I need to turn off Sports Center before she comes back to the cabin.

  92. knighttown says:
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    Grandsonofabench tonight. Can you believe, on a Monday night when half the teams have the night off I have one player not playing…Chipper. But since I have no backup 3B I can’t get my only bench player, Josh Willingham, off the bench. Two Grand Slams later and I’ve just killed a kitten. Are you happy Josh?

  93. knighttown says:
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    And by the way, I’m not the wife of Paulie Allnuts. I think that the Willingham thing is a coincidence.

  94. RIP Harry says:
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    Here’s hoping Shields hits the disgraceful list to get right for the stretch run

  95. Tom_Emanski says:
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    JOSH WILLINGHAM Hahahaha yes I’m awesome for picking him up

  96. Critter Nagurski says:
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    Hate to ask, but my league is pretty competitive in all categories (I have a lead in nothing except K:BB). Pitching is my weakness and bruce and beltran left me with little hitting depth.

    Do I hitch my star to Tillman if I can get him off of waivers?

  97. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wizo: I would.

    @Doc: Thanks for the heads up!

    @Sos: I’d want Cain, unless you’re hurting for pitching, then I’d take Harden and the other side.

    @albertalbert: I’d take the Lincecum side if you need pitching, it’s fair either way.

    @Paulie Allnuts: Aw, man, the Ben and Jerry’s factory… Always wanted to go. I love factory tours. No, I’m not 12.

    @knighttown: I’d take Lincecum there.

    @knighttown: Ha!

  98. Steve says:
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    @Grey: You want to try the Heineken Brewery tour in Amsterdam, then…

  99. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Actually, I had other “things” going on in Amsterdam.

  100. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Ha! Who doesn’t?

    You’re of course referring to the Rijksmuseum and the Anne Frank house.

  101. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Grey: We also got a tour of the Rock of Ages Quarry. Made a deposit on a family headstone. They have enough granite to keep the quarry in business for 4,500 years. This is the kind of stuff that you do on a family reunion. I’m watching Monday night game and tinkering with my fantasy squads while my wife is attending a familyy night where they are watching the Sound of Music, and doing a family sing-a-long on all the tunes.

    No, I am not making this shizz up.

  102. albertalbert says:
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    @Grey:
    i appreciate the reply grey – i’ve fallen off the blog a bit recently, but it’s nice to still get the reply.
    in repayment, i’ll share the greatest player name i’ve ever heard. i can’t believe i’ve been a baseball guy this long and never heard of this guy:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_Shocker
    if i was a poster, that pic would be my thumbnail. how much do you think that sweater costs?

  103. Robert says:
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    How are you feeling about Kaz on Tues. vs NYY? I think this has to be the last chance for me.

  104. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Robert: No way would I start him there.

  105. Tom_Emanski says:
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    Grey, would you do Happ for Halladay?

  106. Robert says:
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    Thought so, thanks.

  107. @Grey:

    Maybe time soon to give up on Quentin? I get the feeling hes gonna be sub-par even if he can play the rest of the way.

  108. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom_Emanski: I’d want Halladay.

    @Elijah: Give up in what way? I wouldn’t drop him.

  109. Well no, but he’s on my bench until I see evidence he can still hit with power. So far, I see no reason to think so. 1 double and 0 HR’s in 25 AB’s is good…if you’re a pitcher.

  110. @Grey:

    Btw, speaking of dropping, I’m scratching my head you still have Kazmir. You told me to drop him months back and I haven’t once regretted it.

  111. Prince says:
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    Pence has trailed off in a big way (.331 prior to June 23rd, .208 after, I believe). Wait this out, or go with Willingham (unrelated to his bombs tonight), Hairston, or DeJesus?

    And Hamilton …. just .. ugh.

  112. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Elijah: I co-manage the team. I’ve tried to convince Rudy he’s a lost cause.

    @Prince: Wait out Pence.

  113. Andy says:
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    I’m first in steals and the guy closest to me is 22 steals away. I have Kinsler, Granderson, Jeter, Cruz, and Crawford. Is it safe to trade Crawford this early in the season for a pitcher and a lower-tier OF and still finish first with the other guys I have?

    What type of pitcher should I target in a Carl Crawford trade?

  114. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Andy: It’s safe to trade him. I’d want at least F-Her, preferably a little higher, think Beckett, Halladay or Johan.

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