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Before he was called up in the beginning of June, I expected Brett Lawrie would get a 15/15 season in three-quarters of a season.  (I also had one of my favorite titles of the season, “Brett Lawrie on Toronto is One Delicious BLT.”  Hehe, that still gives me the giggles.  BTW, it’s okay for a mustachioed man to admit to giggling.  Anyone else over the age of eight should be embarrassed.)  Lawrie then fractured his hand, no relation to Brad, and missed about two months.  Then in 43 games last year after he was called up, he hit 9 homers and stole 7 bases.   That sounds like he would’ve had the 15/15 in the abbreviated season as originally predicted by me.  Or as Lawrie would say on Twitter #yabuddy.  “You want to convey your emotional state while giving the most information possible, all in under 140 characters.”  That’s Lawrie explaining Twitter to his Grammie.  How did I know he was going to hit for power and speed?  Am I time traveler?  Do I read tea leaves under the pseudonym, Future Man?  Am I witch?  No, nope and I don’t think so, but without a good burning at the stake one can never be sure.  I knew what he was gonna do because I looked at his minor league numbers.  The things you can do with eyes!  In Triple-A last year in 69 games, he hit 18 homers and stole 13 bags.   The year before in Double-A, he hit 8 homers and stole 30 bases in a full season.  Oh, and he’s only going to be 22 years old this year and he was born on my day of birth.  We are both Capricorns.  A land sign that enjoys walks on the beach and discreet nose picking.  Usually at different times.  So what can we expect of Brett Lawrie for 2012 fantasy baseball?

More of the same.  And by “more” I really do mean more.  His average of .293 last year looks not only repeatable, but he consistently had a high BABIP in the minors so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit .300+.  If you just extrapolate his stats out over a full season and if extrapolate means what I think it does, he’s easily a 20/20 guy.  If he decides he wants to really impress and get crazy with himself, he could steal 30 bases.  A 20/30 guy?  Well, hello there!  It’s nice to see you, especially at 3rd base, which has done nothing but give us the stink eye for the last year-plus.  I’d say this is a sleeper post, but it’s not, it’s a keeper post.  They do rhyme though.  For keepers, The Hitman can give your team a solid foundation.  I’m not saying it’s a sleeper because I imagine in redraft leagues he’s going to be drafted pretty early.  Fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) are like piranhas circling a girl in a bikini in a cheesy movie when it comes to young talent.  I know in March I’m gonna tell everyone to get onto the Toronto 3B, pronto.  For next year, I’ll give him the line of 90/20/70/.290/24, and that’s actually a bit conservative.  #yabuddy, indeed.

  1. ChillmanCometh says:
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    @Grey

    If a 10 team keeper league, where you can only keep four players from year to year, what round are you seeing Lawrie selected

  2. OaktownSteve says:
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    He’s going to be a 5th rounder in 12 teams by the time the season starts (at least that’s my guess looking at the smoldering heap of 3rd basemen). That’s a lot riding on a guy with a short track record.

  3. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    i bet he goes 3rd or 4th latest,everyone loves the young studs with unlimited potential,id love to have him but doubt he will be around where i would grab him,except in my keeper league where i grabbed him

  4. redpanda says:
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    Timely post.

    Need some keeper advice with a trade waiting to be accepted.

    How do you rank the following players? Price to be kept and number of years eligible at that price. $260 auction budget, 6×6

    Kimbrel – $10 – 3 years
    Lawrie – $1 – 5 years
    Napoli – $8 – 3 years
    Greinke – $7 – 1 year
    Bumgarner – $3 – 3 years

  5. Black Beard says:
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    How much would Fielder going to the Mariners hurt his value?

  6. Boston Fans Are Stoopid says:
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    That explains my lifelong fascination with discreet nose picking. Thanks Grey. You always bring the knowledge.

  7. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    Javy Guerra or Fernando Salas. Either of these guys getting saves this year?

  8. Griff says:
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    3rd to last sentence Grey says he’ll be the Toronto 2B. Typo? Or do you expect him to have 2B eligibility?

  9. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: I’m not gonna get him either (though you KNOW I would LOVE to have him). He can’t break my top five–unless you snipe me! :-)

  10. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @simply fred: ive been known to reach for a guy i want

  11. Pedro Alvarez circa early 2011 is just one cautionary tale. Granted, Lawrie has potential for speed and average on top of the power, but I doubt I’ll want to risk a derailment for how far the hype train will chug up his ADP.

  12. Wake Up says:
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    @Griff: I was going to ask the same thing. I don’t think he played 2B at all last year. Except for on my fantasy team…

  13. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: not falling for it. you can have him r5.

  14. Griff says:
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    @centralohguy: Lawrie is two years younger than Alvarez and Lawrie’s numbers at AAA last year were far better than anything Alvarez did in the minors.

  15. Cuddyer in Coors for next 3 years. Could end up playing some 3rd, making him more useful since already eligible at 2B, 1B, & RF in Yahoo.

  16. Wake Up says:
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    @centralohguy: True. It all depends on where you can draft him, but I don’t like the Alvarez comparison at all. Pedro was called up for a cup of coffee, but he doesn’t drink coffee, so he went for the coffeecake. Feeling so happy that he “made it,” in the offseason, he did 3 things: eat, sleep, and eat. And it showed. If I didn’t know any better, I’d say that he’s a big fan of animated Jack Black movies…anyway, Lawrie is into protein, not poutine…

  17. Black Beard says:
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    @Wake Up: “Pedro was called up for a cup of coffee, but he doesn’t drink coffee, so he went for the coffeecake.”

    This was gold.

  18. @Griff: I acknowledge he has even more upside than Alvarez. I’m just saying he also has downside that makes him not worth the risk for where he’s likely to be taken in redraft leagues. Justin Upton had 2 full seasons under his belt prior to 2011 (plus some pretty mediocre MLB AB), and he was going around 41 ADP LY. Sure Lawrie plays 3B, but I’m not likely to take a guy with 150 MLB AB that early. Someone else will though, without a doubt.

  19. @Wake Up: That’s all good stuff, including your comment. ;) I’m also considering what the prospect mavens said. Alvarez was Baseball America’s #12 in 2009 when Lawrie was #81. Alvarez was #8 in 2010 while Lawrie was #59. While Pedro was picking crumbs out of his beard in 2011, Lawrie moved up to all of #40 (#3 in his own organization behind Drabek and Arencibia). Whether you read much into prospect rankings or not, I would have expected Lawrie to have been ranked higher for the hype.

  20. Wake Up says:
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    @Black Beard: Thank you Mr. Teach…much like yourself…I’m always searching for gold…and booty

  21. OaktownSteve says:
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    Although just to contradict myself I will say that you conservative numbers would have made him about #30 ranked player (pitchers excluded) without any positional adjustment in my ranking system (gave him 600 ABs).

    Also, as a comp I looked at David Wright’s 22 year old season:

    99/27/102/.306/17

    Which doesn’t really tell you anything other than that there is at least recent historical precident for a player of that age at the position putting up some high round numbers. Wright had 395 minor league games and 69 mlb games under his belt. Lawrie 326 minor and 43 major league games, so pretty comparable.

  22. Terrence Mann says:
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    Lawrie was a great pickup for razzes right as you were telling folks to cut ties with Espinosa.

    :bows:

  23. Mark says:
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    There are actually quite a few interesting values at 3B this year, though after the 7th the position falls off a cliff like in years past. Grey, which of these values do you prefer (since this is the latest I assume I’ll be able to get any of these guys my league): Zimmerman in the 4th, Lawrie in the 5th, Sandoval in the 7th, Youkilis in the 7th.

  24. Cole says:
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    On Cuddyer to the Rockies: Let the prosblocking commence!

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @OaktownSteve: That’s interesting, but I’d have to look at a little bit deeper numbers to feel good saying it’s accurate. Could be though….

    @Terrence Mann: I was the one originally telling people to own Espinosa. :bows out of the room slowly:

    @Mark: Sandoval

    @Cole: Seriously…After I already wrote the Arenado post too.

  26. greenmountaincoffee says:
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    Gotta keep two of these. Lose the draft round listed.

    Kemp (Rd1), A.Gonzalez (Rd3), Lawrie (Rd22)

    Thanks in advance!

  27. @OaktownSteve: Good points. MDCs 2005 historical ADP report for Mixed 5×5 leagues had Wright off the board at 70. Not far behind where AL and fred were debating the Lawrie plunge this year. Still, not any round 3-4 crazy talk.

    I looked at Longoria just out of curiosity and he was clear down at ADP 223 in his age 22, 2008 season. In 2009, 21. Wow.

  28. OaktownSteve says:
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    It was a long shot that they were going to jump Arenado from High A all the way, even though he tore up the AFL.

  29. OaktownSteve says:
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    @centralohguy:

    Longo had about 100 fewer minor league games going in to that 22 y.o. season:

    67/27/85/.272/7 in 508 mlb ABS

    I suppose it’s arbitrary to talk about guys as comps just because they play the same position stat wise, but not ADP wise. Interesting MDC data there.

  30. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Grey: footballs been good to me,4 of 5 teams in the playoffs with 2 of them getting 1st round byes,and 1 team in paulies league fighting back from an 0-4 start. My brother in law in long beach was excited to land Albert of course,he called to inform me that we will be going to a game on our next visit out,id love to see dodger stadium to but he is not a dodger fan,the rest of the family is in the Oakland area and are huge A,s fans despite thier financial woes. Your a dodger man arent you

  31. @OaktownSteve: Yeah, I kinda shifted toward the 3B-specific realm there. Since he was highly touted, I’m guessing Longo’s low 2008 ADP had to do with him starting the season in the minors vs. being expected to have a full time gig. Even ADP can be misleading, but it seems to be a pretty useful barometer. FWIW, Lawrie’s at 93 on MDCs current drafts.

  32. Terrence Mann says:
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    Don’t be so modest. You had Espinosa as a buy before he went on a tear and then told us to drop him down the stretch as you were buying Lawrie. As much as I criticize, I have to give you due props when you absolutely nail it.

    Still waiting for that game, though….

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Congrats on the football! I’m 15 minutes from Dodger Stadium. Not a fan of them, but it’s a nice stadium and I go occasionally. If you come to LA on your next visit, I’ll go to a game with you.

    @Terrence Mann: Thanks, I was being modest! :tips cap:

  34. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Grey: sounds great,football is real fun to play but i hate the playoffs,im baseball hungry now,ill get your imput on my keepers when we get a little closer to the draft,ive got a few for sures then a few questions with young guys and young sp,s to choose from

  35. Cole says:
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    @Grey: Of coarse. He probably will play 3rd exclusively the older he gets since he’s already too “fat” and “slow” to play right in coors or any of the other ballparks in Colorado’s division. At least it doesn’t mess with the development of Blackmon…mon

  36. @Grey: If readers come to visit you, do you go out with a paper bag like the unknown comic, or do you figure it’s cool since they went to the trouble?

  37. @Grey: Ah, the green generation of comedians. Recycling bags and jokes. ;)

  38. chata says:
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    way too early to be talking about lawrie’s current adp , but , expect
    him to be in the 45-55 range @mdc before the end of february .
    me ?
    i’m taking him before zimmerman .
    which means , zimmerman will never be on any of my teams .

  39. Wake Up says:
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    @chata: I’m starting to get that same feeling. I doubt that he’ll still be around when I’m ready to take him.

  40. Wake Up says:
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    Zimmerman’s last 3 year average: 22 HR’s, 82 RBI’s, 85 Runs, 33 2B’s
    (I did the math in my head, which is floating high above myself at the moment.) No, wait a minute. Those are Cuddyer’s numbers. Zimmerman’s are much better! 23 HR’s, 80 RBI’s, 82 Runs, 30 2B’s

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: I don’t know about before Zimmerman, but it doesn’t sound as crazy as it should.

    @Wake Up: Ha, true.

  42. beardawg says:
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    Lawrie over Wright?

  43. james d says:
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    12man keeper league
    6 keepers per team (but you can keep less)
    Keep players at the round they were drafted in
    Can only keep players for a certain number of times

    Seems to me I have 3 obvious keepers:
    Adrian Gonzalez – R1 (2 years left)
    Matt Kemp – R2 (2 years)
    Ian Kennedy – R18 (2 years)

    Then need 3 from this group:
    Paul Konerko – R9 (1 year)
    Josh Johnson – R10 (2 years)
    Rickie Weeks – R15 (1 year)
    Tim Hudson – R17 (1 year)

    Assuming I fail to trade my extra guy, the obvious move is to let Hudson walk because he has 1 year left and is old. Is this even a close call?

    I really appreciate the steady flow of baseball analysis during the winter times. Good to see you keeping at it Grey

  44. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    “… but it doesn’t sound as crazy as it should.”

    ah , yes , the allure of up-side .
    you’ve seen zimmerman’s .

    roll the dice , baby !

  45. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    speaking of which ,
    isn’t it about time for one of your pre-holiday craps jaunts ?

  46. Jeff From Tallahassee says:
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    Lawrie over Sandoval, A-Rod, and A-Ram?

  47. beardawg says:
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    @Jeff, Sandoval, Lawrie, A-Rod, A-Ram (I kinda want to reverse the last two)

  48. Eddy says:
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    @Wake Up:

    Woah. That comparison kind of blew me away.

  49. chata says:
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    2 reasons why Yu Darvish should sign with the Blue Jays :

    1) it keeps my stupid-azz predictions alive …(see forum thread)

    2) increases the chances of the A’s getting Olt from the Rangers
    in a deal for Gio .

  50. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    News: Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez told MLB.com on Friday that he plans to learn from his tough season in 2011. Alvarez struggled to stay healthy and at the plate last year, which led to two demotions to the minors. “I have always been a big believer in taking everything you can out of every situation, good or bad, and getting a positive out of everything,” Alvarez said on Friday. Pittsburgh general manager Neal Huntington had already said that they are committed to Alvarez, but just in case he continues to struggle the Pirates went out and got Casey McGehee as a contingency plan.
    Analysis: Alvarez hit just .191 with nine doubles, four homers and 19 RBI in 74 games for Pittsburgh in 2011. “I think it was just one of those things that was a learning adjustment,” Alvarez said. “Hopefully, it’s one of those things that if you deal with it early in your career, you don’t have to deal with it again. For now, I think it’s just a matter of how I go about it, what I can take out of it and move on from there.” He also struck out about once in every three at-bats, while walking just 24 times. That is not going to cut it and if he does that again look for the Pirates to turn to McGehee. Alvarez is going to have to battle to keep his job, but perhaps he just needed some motivation to get into gear. The second overall pick in the 2008 draft has big power potential, as he showed by hitting 16 homers in 347 at-bats as a rookie in 2010. Fantasy owners should target him as a late-round sleeper

  51. chata says:
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    @ ALL

    could someone , please , provide the link to the site that tracks
    a hitter’s home runs (location/length/etc) , as well as those fly-balls
    that fall short of being home runs ?

    thanking you , in advance .

  52. Black Beard says:
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    Rosenthal reporting that Alonso + additional players getting sent to the Padres. Reds getting Latos in return.

  53. Black Beard says:
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    @Black Beard: Volquez also going to Pads.

  54. Black Beard says:
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    @Black Beard: The Reds just announced that they have acquired Latos from the Padres for first baseman Yonder Alonso, right-handers Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger and catching prospect Yasmani Grandal.

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Black Beard: That’s a solid trade for both teams.

  56. Black Beard says:
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    @Grey: Makes Volquez interesting next year. He’s not even registering as drafted over at MDC right now.

  57. Terrence Mann says:
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    Reds have to be the NL favorite now.

  58. chata says:
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    @Black Beard:

    grandal ?
    wasn’t he that tolkien dude ??

    seriously … think you’re correct .
    volquez seems like the biggest individual winner .

  59. Black Beard says:
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    @chata: Word is Rizzo goes back to AAA and Alonso starts the year at first (assuming Guzman doesn’t win the job).

    Read somewhere that Alonso’s bat plays better long term in Petco. Could be a situation where Rizzo builds value in AAA and then gets traded?

  60. chata says:
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    @Black Beard:

    yeah .
    read the same thing about rizzo .

    even without alonso , was assuming rizzo to start @ 3-a ,
    and was wondering how they were going to “showcase” him .

    re : volquez …. might consider grabbing him for home starts (mostly) ,
    and never against the d-backs .
    could put up some decent stats … like that .

  61. royce! says:
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    I’m very happy about this Padres/Reds trade. Latos has been great, but reminds me too much of an 80′s movie bully. I would root for him because he was pitching for my team, but it always left me feeling like I betrayed my inner Duckie.

  62. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Volquez seems like a good fit for the HodgePadre role.

  63. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Wait, Johnny Cueto is an 80′s movie bully. Can you have two of them? How does that work?

    @Awesomus Maximus: Yup

  64. Jans says:
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    A question for Grey and any other geniuses out there:

    $8 Arencibia
    or
    $9 Goldschmidt

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jans: Goldschmidt

  66. Wake Up says:
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    Sounds like Rizzo is already on the move…The Padres seemed to have grown tired of his constant prank phone calls…

  67. Wake Up says:
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    @Grey: Even Kissel wouldn’t complain about Garza in Petco.

  68. Wake Up says:
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    Or is this just to drive the price down on Fielder?

  69. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Bullies always have sidekicks! I imagine Cueto will br the brains, Latos the brawn. There might be a short period of adjustment, though. Spring Training could be awkward.

  70. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wake Up: Nope

    @royce!: The way Cueto kicked LaRue in the head he seemed more like the brawn.

  71. Steve says:
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    @Grey: He’ll need to do a better job of finding the strike zone (or not walking so many guys) won’t he?

  72. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Good point. Things could get ugly!

  73. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Oh, yeah, he’s still gonna be a total mess with walks, but less homers can’t hurt.

    @royce!: Scary when Cueto claims the “You’re the Best” song and Latos wants it.

  74. chata says:
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    TA DAH ….. sophie

  75. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Umm… I don’t think it airs live on the West coast, chata. Hopefully Grey isn’t checking the site until the show ends, if that’s the case.

  76. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    HA! I was poised to claim victory with Coach…phewy.

  77. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Dawn directed one question to Sophie: “What made you align with Coach and Albert?” To which Sophie responded that entering the game she wished she were a man because men always seemed to recruit two women to trust them. Then went on to say that Coach was like a woman to her. He convinced her he would be loyal. Then she and Albert talked about how they were the strategists and carried Coach.

  78. Vacation says:
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    11 team 6 keeper league. Keepers can be kept indefinitely (the same owner has had Pujoles and Hanley on lockdown forever) and no draft rounds are surrendered in exchange fo rkeepers. My keepers are:
    Miguel Cabrera
    Ellsbury
    McCutcheon
    Lincecum

    Need to pick 2 more from this pool:

    Nelson Cruz
    Brian McCann
    Yovanni Gallardo
    Craig Kimbrel
    Michael Young

    Also, am I crazy to consider trading Lincecum for Lawrie this offseason? At some point Lincecum has to fade or get hurt, right?

  79. Llama says:
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    Braun, Votto, Verlander, Ellsbury, Kinsler…need two for my 12-team auction league. KEEP TWO.??

  80. Llama says:
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    just heard some positive news via Braun..thoughts?

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