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We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2012 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2012 Twins Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Aaron Gleeman from his eponymous Minnesota Twins Blog.

1) I have Scott Baker down for 2012 projections of 11-7/3.65/1.19/160.  How’s that sound to you?  

Sounds about right. Baker’s performance is never really a question, as he’s basically been a solid second or third starter with great K/BB ratios for the past five seasons, so it’s just a matter of him staying healthy. Or at least relatively healthy. He’s only topped 180 innings once and is coming off an elbow injury. He should provide good value in most drafts.

2) Well, the Tsuyoshi Nishioka experiment turned out about as well Jeff Goldblum’s teleporting pods.  Any chance for some redemption in 2012 for Nishioka?

I doubt it. He’ll have to fight just to make the Opening Day roster as a utility man behind middle infield starters Jamey Carroll and Alexi Casilla. In addition to an inept bat Nishioka also showed that he isn’t as fast or as good a base-stealer as the reports from Japan suggested, so even if he were to somehow work his way into the lineup regularly there just isn’t much fantasy upside.

3) Everyone’s favorite game (or maybe just mine)…. The Over/Under Game!  Justin Morneau — 100 games?  25 homers?  85 RBIs?

I’d take the under. Morneau’s concussion status has gotten most of the attention, but he’s also coming back from neck, knee, foot, and wrist surgeries. He hasn’t been healthy and effective since mid-2010, so even if you feel like betting on him staying in the lineup that’s an awful lot of time off to pick up right where he was.

4) Francisco Liriano seemed profoundly lucky last year… Cause I know at least a thousand or so fantasy baseballers that would’ve liked to kill him.  Can Liriano regain his pre-surgery form this year?  

His pre-surgery form? Definitely not. He simply doesn’t have that type of velocity or raw stuff since having elbow surgery. I think he’s absolutely capable of being closer to the 2010 version than the 2011 version, but he has to make significant strides with his command. I’d certainly take Liriano if he fell to me late in a draft, but there are better high-upside risks to take.

5) What is the best slogan for the 2012 Minnesota Twins?
A) A Healthy Mauer Has Doubles Power!
B) Justin Morneau is Concussin’ No Mo’
C) The Plouffe Is In the Pudding
D) Target Field – Too Big For Our Hitters, Too Small For Our Pitchers

I’m hoping it’s A, because a healthy, doubles-hitting Mauer is one of the best all-around players in baseball and his getting back on track is without question the biggest key for the Twins long term.

  1. chata says:
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    considering the relevance that twins’ ballplayers will have on
    fantasy baseball , this year , i’m guessing gleeman needed the work
    and appreciates the attention .

    Grey doing mother teresa’s work , now ?

  2. Wake Up says:
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    I like C for question 5. Wait, there IS a C?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wake Up, Plouffe Diddy.

      • Justin Morneau says:
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        @Grey, dag yo, you just wasted probably the greatest headline of all time. watchya gonna do when t plouffe goes 4-4 with a slam & legs?

  3. royce! says:
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    Care to share any thoughts on Parmelee? All I’ve heard is that he needs some time at AAA, but his showing last Sept. makes me wonder if that may not be necessary.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @royce!, Feels like a platoon player at this point, unless Morneau or Doumit are hurt. Hmm… That does seem likely. I doubt he’s drafted anywhere without a full time job though.

  4. chata says:
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    am watching melbourne vs perth (australian league) .
    the pitcher was just clocked throwing 140 km/h .

    without running out to my car ,
    i couldn’t tell you how fast that is .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @chata, Ha…You remind me of this twitter.com/nowimworried That’s 85 MPH.

      • chata says:
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        @Grey,
        yeah , the stands are packed for this championship series .

        announcers referred to germany being “a hot-bed of baseball” ,
        as some of these guys had also played over there .

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @chata, I thought Germany was a hot bed for sauerkraut and statuesque women.

        • Steve says:
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          @chata, @Grey, A lot of MLB clubs have people based in Australia to develop the game, spot talent etc. Baseball is getting more and more popular here too, threatening softball in fact. An NZ kid signed with the Red Sox last year and another one signed with the O’s just a few weeks ago. It was the club’s Australian representative that came over to do the deal.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            @Steve, Be interesting case study how long it takes a country to get competitive at a sport. I imagine it takes some time because for someone to actually get good they need decent players around them to make them better.

            • Steve says:
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              @Grey, That’s true I think. Other factors at play too – financial, cultural etc. For example, with the quality of athletes that the US produces, they could theoretically be a very strong rugby nation.
              But rugby is not what kids grow up playing on vacant lots (it’s not ‘in the blood’, as it were) and it’s not what you can make an extremely well-paid career out of. So all those great athletes go in other directions.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                @Steve, Right, and we don’t have moderately good rugby players for the great ones to play to get better against. But why isn’t it in the blood? Because at some point some great rugby star got kids excited in Australia, so it turned on a younger generation?

                • Steve says:
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                  @Grey, Don’t quite get the reference to Australia, but I guess a sport catching on or not are probably as much about accidents of history (for want of a better term) as anything else. If you look here:
                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rugby_union_in_New_Zealand
                  there’s no real eureka moment. It’s kind of how things developed along the path we were on.

                  • Steve says:
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                    @Steve, Though to your point, the All Blacks are incredibly iconic here. Every kid that starts playing rugby wants to be one. That’s a bit of a generalization but you get what I’m saying.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    @Steve, I was just saying Australia because I figured they were into rugby, not discrediting your wonderful island nation of 4 million-plus people (thanks, wikipedia!) Yeah, and I feel like I’ve read something on this before but it’s interesting how kids play soccer here then when they get to a certain age they stop and begin to play other sports. As you might be familiar with the term ‘soccer mom.’

                    • Steve says:
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                      @Grey, Australia is an interesting case as far as rugby goes. I’m guessing it was introduced there much the same way there as it was here, but it has stayed pretty much within the upper-middle and middle classes and the private schools. It’s not the people’s game in the same way it is here or soccer is elsewhere in the world.
                      The people’s game there is rugby league in new South Wales and Queensland and Aussie Rules (your favourite!) in the other states – especially Victoria.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      @Steve, So rugby is the people’s game in NZ, but it’s an elitist game in Australia like tennis is here? Aussie Rules rocks! Should start a aussierules.razzball.com…

                    • Steve says:
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                      @Grey, Elitist is probably a little too strong a word, but it is definitely the No.3, if not the No.4 football code in Australia.

                      Aussie rules takes a bit of watching to get in to but it’s a great game – those guys are incredible athletes.

                      There’s an Aussie Rules game from the playoffs about 12 years ago that is one of my favorite sporting contests of all time.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      @Steve, Aussie rules is such a great game, surprised it never took off here.

  5. Ringo says:
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    I know you will come out with a specific Auction Strategy eventually but I was wondering if you could give me a simple crash course type answer to a pretty basic auction question. How much of an auction Budget do you spend on Hitting? and How much do you spend on Pitching? I was figuring on a $160/$100 split (Hitting/Pitching). Does that seem like a good split? Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ringo, Rudy likes to go 180/80, I think 160/100 is good.

  6. Eddy says:
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    Looking for some technical (real) MLB draft answers. I’m not sure whom to ask, but I figure here’s as good a place as any.

    What’s the average signing bonus for a player drafted in the 20th round of the MLB draft?

    Is there a source I can see a round by round breakdown in terms of average money?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eddy, Not sure, but I’m guessing $5,000 and a durable suitcase. Why do you ask? Is there something we should know? Are you getting signed?

    • royce! says:
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      @Eddy, My admittedly scant research has me concluding that it could be anywhere from a coupon for a Happy Meal to what Grey posited, though it is usually closer to the former. I think that by the 20th round the teams expect the players to just be happy to have an offer to continue to play ball for a (meager) living.

      I have no idea about the accuracy of these dudes’ comments, but it was an interesting browse: http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=321&f=2089&t=7580123

    • Eddy says:
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      Thanks, fellas. No, I’m not getting signed (though I’ve always dreamt of being good at baseball, busting into the scene, then drafting myself in a league).

      I’m the baseball beat at Florida International University and I’m doing a short feature on Aramis Garcia. He’s a catcher drafted by the Cards in the 20th round.

      He turned down $350,000 to play for FIU. I was stunned. My little digging came up about the same as yours, royce. Anyone offered $100K after the 10th is an anomaly.

      Garcia, however, was projected to be a 5-7th round pick, but his openness to sign with FIU scared teams off.

      So I just wanted to see what the average was. Very interested to see how he develops in the coming years.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Eddy, Wow, surprised he turned that down, obviously he must feel with some college experience he can get even better and score a bigger payday.

  7. captainpyper says:
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    HAHA as a Tigers fan letter D would be just fine. Here’s hoping to a repeat of last year! (not the injuries of course, I’m not Adolf Schmohawk)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @captainpyper, Ha!

  8. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    “D” has got to sting when a die hard Twins fan reads it… but it’s funny as hell.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus, You ever watch Shark Tank? Great show, you should check it out.

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @Grey, Is that the one that’s an American version of Dragons’ Den?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Awesomus Maximus, I never heard of that before, but just Googled and it is…

          • Awesomus Maximus

            Awesomus Maximus says:
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            @Grey, I used to watched Dragons’ Den when I had BBC America. Definitely a good formula. I’ve been meaning to check out Shark Tank to see if it got overly Americanized (catchphrases, a glass floor with live sharks underneath), or if they stuck with the human dynamic that drove the original show.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              @Awesomus Maximus, I think it works really well, but sometimes when you know the original your standards are different.

  9. Swaggerjackers says:
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    Hey G: We just changed a category in our H2H 12 teamer. We now track Saves + Holds instead of Saves. How does this impact the value of good middle relievers? According to ESPN’s player rater, Clioppard was more valuable than Kimbrel. Adams, Venters, Robertson and Marshal were more valuable than Axford, Rivera, Putz, etc.

    I hesitant but do I draft holds guys right out the gate as my top RPs instead of closers since I’m sure at least half the league will still be focused on drafting Papelbon’s and Valverde’s?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Swaggerjackers, I wouldn’t draft middle men until the end rounds, too much turn over. Maybe the very top guys go around 200th pick at the earliest.

  10. Mr2Bits says:
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    Hey Grey,
    Guy in my 10 team keeper league is looking to trade picks for these guys. What round pick would you ask for in regards to what he gets their keeper status for? I was planning on keeping Kendrick but the other 2 can be traded for good value picks.

    Chris Young – 21st round
    Neftali Feliz – 23rd round
    Howie Kendrick – FA

    • Mr2Bits says:
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      @Mr2Bits, FYI, the round listed is what he gets to keep them at but would lose the rounds pick he gives me.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Mr2BReplying wouldn’t trade any of them for picks.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Mr2Bits, That’s… I wouldn’t trade any of them for draft picks but I have no idea who might be available.

        • Mr2Bits says:
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          @Grey,
          Well they are essentially free picks as I was not planning on keeping Young or Feliz so they would go back into the draft. If I put a round on them, the other guy is forced to keep them as one of his 8 and I get the draft pick trade we agree on. Guess I just need to get an idea of where you see their trade value based on that keeper status. I was thinking something in the 8-12 round range for Young and Feliz.

          One other question. Again 10 team league. Would you keep Krispie losing 21st round pick or Dan Haren losing a 3rd round? Feel like I could get Haren back around there but Young will not be around come 21st round.

          Here are my other keepers. Still deciding on Roy or Jared depending on where my draft position turns out.

          Roy Halladay – 1st round – Keeper
          or
          Jered Weaver – 2nd round

          Dan Haren – 3rd round – Keeper
          Josh Hamilton – 7th round -Keeper
          James Shields – 15th Round – Keeper
          Kevin Youkilis – 15th round – Keeper
          Chris Young – 21st round
          Jose Bautista – 23rd round – Keeper
          Lance Berkman – FA – Keeper
          Howie Kendrick – FA – Keeper

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            @Mr2Bits, If you’re not keeping them, try and get the best rounds you can. 8th round sounds about right. I don’t understand how you’re not planning on keeping Krispie or Kendrick when you then ask me if I’d keep them. Yes, Krispie’s better in the 21st round.

            • Mr2Bits says:
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              @Grey, I am planning on keep Kendrick, but have to decide between keeping Haren and giving up my 3rd round draft pick or keep Young and give up my 21st round. Think I will replace Haren with Young as I can only keep 8

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                @Mr2Bits, Young is better value there.

  11. TBLA says:
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    6×6 league with ops. Can keep either:

    Hanley ramirez
    Or
    Elvis andrus and hunter pence

    No other keepers. Which do you go with?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @TBLA, Tough call… I want to say Hanley, but could see either way.

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    I wonder if the medic was waiting for her to exhale. What, too soon?

    • vinko says:
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      @Grey, Ha, Classic!

    • Tony says:
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      @Grey, my wife just goes WHOAAAA….. hahahahahah

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Tony, Ha

  13. elwood blues says:
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    Speaking of twins(see how I did that) better trade pair.. NL Only 4×4 keeper $260 Salary (different trade than my Chacin/Jay grab)

    Bay $17 and Cashner $3..
    or Leake $10 and Cashner $3??

    Bay at $17 too much? I see some bounce back, but eh. Did Leake peak last year? I’m trading Holliday at $40.. I can’t afford to keep him.(we have to protect at least 7)

    As for the Twins, I like Doumit this year in AL Only Leagues, he won’t get hurt as much with a few DH’s a week.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @elwood blues, Bay’s terrible for $17. Anything but him.

      • elwood blues says:
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        @Grey, I just worry about collecting so many $10 pitchers. BTW- Nice choice of AWOLNATION — several strong songs.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @elwood blues, Thanks! And Leake isn’t great at $10 but Bay at $17 is worse.

  14. Mark says:
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    Hey Grey!!
    Figure you might not see this, but want to get it out there anyway. Never worked up the confidence to do an auction draft before, but figure this is the year so I’ve done a couple mocks. Wasn’t thrilled with the first one, but here’s the second one. Any thoughts? 12 team, Standard Yahoo! $260 budget 5×5:

    C-Buster Posey ($13)
    1B-Ike Davis ($9)
    2B-Ian Kinsler ($33)
    3B-Brett Lawrie ($20)
    SS-Jimmy Rollins ($13)
    OF-Justin Upton ($44)
    OF-Andrew McCutchen ($26)
    OF-Jay Bruce ($17)
    Util-Brandon Belt [1B,OF] ($2)
    Utit-Mike Moustakas [3B] ($2)
    SP-David Price ($26)
    SP-Madison Bumagarner ($16)
    RP-Jordan Walden ($2)
    RP-Rafael Betancourt ($2)
    P-Mat Latos ($13)
    P-Cory Luebe ($11)
    P-Max Scherzer ($2)
    P-Jason Motte ($2)
    BN-Lucas Duda [1B,OF] ($1)
    BN-Alex Rios ($1)
    BN-Devin Mesoraco ($1)
    BN-Jamie Garcia ($2)
    BN-Mike Minor ($1)

    My two biggest regrets are the $13 Jimmy Rollins and Buster Posey. Both are somewhat risky, and I don’t see either’s neutral projection as better than $13. But the risk of winning either at that bid spot vs. the potential of driving their price up seemed worth it, so I don’t entirely mind (Plus Wieters, my C target, went for like $18 which was a bit more than I wanted to bid figuring I could get Posey or Montero at least $5 cheaper). I don’t think either one hurts me, I just don’t think they particularly help at that cost either. The same is probably true for Brett Lawrie at $20, but I think the floor of a 15 HR, 15 SB 3B makes the price reasonable. Otherwise, I think I got a lot of good deals. Bruce at $17 is a steal, as is Bumgarner at $16, and I like all the $1 and $2 guys I got to provide nice profit, and I think I pretty cheaply built a very nice pitching staff.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mark, Team looks solid, but it doesn’t look like a team where the rest of your leaguemates knew what they were doing. If they did though, that’s a very solid team. Well done.

      • Mark says:
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        @Grey, Oh yeah they definitely didn’t, it was just a mock, I’m just not super familiar with the auction format so I wanted to see if you had any criticisms. Everyone was overpaying early though and it left way too many cheap options. In particular I should have had a much harder time putting the RP and bench together, I was just one of the only guys with any budget left towards the end so I was able to get pretty much anyone I wanted for $1-2. Seems the trick is to balance having a budget deep in the auction while not underspending too much early and having to leave money on the table.

        Yahoo has Bruce way underrated BTW. It’ll be interesting to see if the market corrects for it, but right now he’s their #15 outfielder behind Pence, Holliday, Jennings, Cruz and Braun and he’s ADPing around #60, the 16th OF (behind Zobrist as well, who likely isn’t being drafted as an OF) and less than $20 in auction. Seems crazy to me.

        Otherwise their rankings seem pretty close to others (such as MDC) and the good values are the guys who have already been discussed throughout the offseason.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Mark, That is crazy that Bruce is that low.

  15. Challenge Guy says:
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    Its pretty telling that the biggest topic here on a “Twins” post relates to Rugby in Australia. Might as well be Houston. Hey, at least its a nice park in Minneapolis. Actually, for their relative success prior to last season, the Twins organizaional philosophy doesn’t favor fantasy superstars. When they do pay for “superstars”‘ they get Mauer and Morneau. Mostly content with building a team with nondescript (or worse) commodities like Valencia, Carrol and Pavano. And Capps. ‘Nuff said.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Challenge Guy, That’s true, they’re not a club that pays for big names.

  16. Mike says:
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    Help!

    Trying to finalize keepers in 14 team 5×5 roto league.

    We keep five, all in the round they were drafted in, and can keep for ever.

    So mine are:
    Andrew McCutchen Rd 23
    Hunter Pence Rd 5
    Mike Trout Rd 15

    Plus two from:

    David Price Rd 7
    Cole Hamels Rd 3
    Josh Beckett Rd 13
    Jonathan Papelbon Rd 8
    Mark Trumbo Rd 26
    Kendrys Morales Rd 22

    Complicating this is a trade offer for either Price or Beckett to give Jason Heyward (Rd 9).

    So should I take the trade: and keep the 4OFs (we play four + a util), plus either Hamels or the pitcher I don’t trade (probably Price)?

    Or reject the trade and keep two of the three SPs?

    Or take the trade push Trout back in, and keep J Hey + the two SPs

    Or do something different!!

    Help!!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mike, Forget Trout there. To give Heyward? You don’t have Heyward. To get? You have 2 OFs already. McCutchen, Pence, Price, Beckett, Trumbo…

      • Mike says:
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        @Grey, Yeah, sorry – meant to get Heyward obviously!

        You think Trumbo will get playing time this year?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Mike, Enough to make it worthwhile for a keeper in the 26th round of a 14 team league.

  17. sandles says:
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    @grey
    Hope the weekend was good to you sir!
    I have been droping a few of my mocks on you and got another one for you to look at. So far I have not found that right balance with my offense(too much power not enough speed or other way around).
    12 teams(11th pick) 5*5 scoring(2 catchers & 5 OF’s)
    C- Ramos & Perez
    1st- Fielder
    2nd- Uggla
    3rd- Beltre
    SS- D. Gordan
    OF- J. Upton, A. Jones, Morrison, Tabata & Presley
    CI- Morse
    MI- Kendrick
    UT- Reynolds
    SP- Grienke, Zimmerman, A. Sanchez, Chacin, Stauffer, Norris & Peacock
    RP- Madson, Jansen, J. Johnson & Abreu
    What do you think about this squad?
    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @sandles, That looks like a great team. Only quibble is it might have too much with Tabata, Presley and Gordon… Very solid pitching though.

      • sandles says:
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        @Grey,
        Thanks for the feedback!
        Maybe a insert of Chris Heisey for Alex Presley would have removed that Quibble?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @sandles, Sure, but the reality of the situation is your last players drafted are being dropped in any real league anyway.

  18. Whiskey Diet says:
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    Grey,

    Wanted to get your thoughts on a 12 Team, H2H, Standard scoring draft I had. Second overall pick:

    C Wieters – R9
    1B Pujols – R1
    2B Espinosa – R14
    3B Zimmerman R3
    SS Bonifacio – R15
    OF Stanton – R2
    OF Bruce – R4
    OF Gardner – R7
    Util Hosmer – R6
    Util Butler – R11

    Ben. Boesch – R21, Presley – R23

    SP Bumgardner -R5
    SP Latos – R8
    SP Gio Gonz – R10
    SP Morrow – R13
    SP Cahill – R16
    SP Norris – R17
    SP Satuffer – R18

    RP Soria – R12
    RP Guerra R22

    Is my pitching wonky with too many Ks, too much WHIP? No Closers? Do you see any bad reaches or questionable picks?

    Thanks for any thoughts OG

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Whiskey Diet, Never too many Ks! Your pitching staff looks a little too strong, which isn’t terrible if it doesn’t adversely affect your hitting which I don’t think this has. Your RPs aren’t great.

  19. Steve says:
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    Any interest in Ibanez if he signs with the Yankees? Short porch in right at the Stadium won’t hurt him (nor the one in Fenway for that matter) and in that lineup you’d think he’ll get a few pitches too hit.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Steve, Depends if he’s playing every day.

  20. Anthony says:
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    @Grey, Is this a good draft stratedgy for my first 5 picks ? Ive been going: 3b, 1b, 2b, C, Pitcher

    Ive been testing it out in mock drafts and usually depending on my order im ending up with Joey Bats/ Longoria, Fielder/Pablo, Kinsley/Utley/Young/ – Mccann ( constant ) – Pitcher is usually Cain or Ian kennedy – I think its pretty solid for first 5 picks – Thoughts??

    I want a well rounded team Im big on hitters hitting for average, stealing bases, having some pop, and knocking in runs. I dont draft the best available guys available I go for what i like. For example if Teixeria is available and pablo is also there ill take pablo over him because he hits for average even though teixeira plays on the better team and will prolly hit more hrs. Once again i go for a deep well rounded team and really try to win every stat category as far as fantasy baseball goes. Feedback please

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Anthony, You try and win every category with a well-rounded team? How novel! I’m teasing. The first 5 picks look okay, it’s too early for a catcher and if you have the 10th pick and Kemp is there but Longoria and Bautista are not what are you going to do? Personally, I think your outfield would be weak with those first five picks but it may not make for a bad team.

  21. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    I know you don’t watch it Grey (at least not yet…), but that was an AWESOME walking dead episode…

    Watch it! you know you want too!

  22. anthony says:
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    @Grey: if its between joey bats and kemp ill prolly go with joey bats cuz he’s got more position eligibility and will prolly hit more hrs drive in more rbis than kemp. Kemp will grab more bases, and score more runs and hit a deceent amount of hrs. Buuuuut I’d go joey bats.. And kemp vs longo? No brainer. Kemp

  23. Interested in joining dalmore’s league#41.
    Otherwise anyone have a spot available?

    Khang

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