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We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2011 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2011 Rays Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Jason Collette from Dock of the Rays.

1) Since 98% of the people who play fantasy baseball are guys, you would think everyone would love a solid B.J.  Yet, fantasy baseballers (<– my Mom’s term) always seem to underrate the fickleness (<–my term) of batting average and tend to stay away from B.J. Upton, even with his 20 homer power and 40 steal speed.  Yet, Part II:  The Return of Yet, no matter how fickle average may be, Upton can’t seem to get his average over .250.  Or can he?  Please help convince our readers that Upton can hit .270 again one of these years.

Can he? Sure. Will he? Only if he stops that downward slide in his K% that has gone from 25% to 27% to 31% over the past three seasons. If you listen to Upton talk about himself, he stresses about how mechanical he looks at the plate these days and I have to agree – he does look like a mechanical windmill. He did close strong over the final two months with 25 extra base hits and a .255 batting average but his K% over the final four months was 24%, 33%, 34%, and 34%. He and Carl Crawford were the only two players in baseball last season that had at least 40 steals and 60 extra base and they join an exclusive club of just 51 members over the past sixty seasons. The scary part? Upton’s .237 average last season was the lowest average by 22 points of any member in the 60/40 club trailing Bobby Bonds who did the feat in both 1969 and 1972.

Ever since his shoulder surgery, he has not been the same type of hitter at the plate. He shows flashes of the 2007 monster but then goes into horrendous slumps that bring out the boo birds at home. Upton just needs to join the Rex Grossman fan club and say, “F it, I’m going deep.” When he isn’t so mental at the plate, his talents seep out of every pore.

2) Jeremy Hellickson’s in the rotation, right?  So what can we expect of him in 2011?  Here’s my Hellickson fantasy for reference.

The 5th spot is his but it would not surprise me to see him leapfrog Niemann during this season. He’s 23 but he pitches with the moxie of a 33 year old as he has three major league pitches with his fastball, curve, and change and he can throw all three for strikes at any point in the count. There were a few times last season when he doubled up on change-ups to veterans and even tripled up at times. He does not get himself in trouble but he did show last season he was better out of the wind-up than he was in the stretch and gave up a few long balls. He reminds me a lot of James Shields when he first came up in that regard but Shields only had two pitches and his change-up was something he only used (and still uses) when he is ahead in the count. Hellickson, on the other hand, will throw any pitch at any time, and most of the time it will be where he wanted it to be.

3) I loved David Price last year.  Unfortunately, Price and I are going separate ways this year.  I’m worried about regression.  Are you?

Absolutely worried – the gap between his ERA and FIP does it for me. His 79% LOB will regress but I think his low BABIP is for real because Niemann, Davis, and Garza were all close to that as well thanks to the great defense the Rays play. I have no explanation why Shields’ BABIP was nearly 60 points higher than the other starting pitchers on the staff outside of the fact batters were really teeing off on his fastball last season. Price worked deep into a lot of his own starts but that superior bullpen helped him close out some of those starts last year and he nearly got that 20th win. That superior bullpen is gone so he is going to have more of those runners he leaves on in later innings come in unless Farnsworth, Peralta, and Russell all have the same type of career seasons as the group did last year. If that happens, Friedman is the anti-christ and has made a deal with the devil.

4) James Shields is the opposite of Price.  Didn’t like him last year and now I feel like we can get a bounce back.  Agree, disagree or no longer reading and having your nephew type up responses?

He is his own worst enemy. It amazes me that a guy with his K/9, low BB/9, and excellent K/BB get pounded someone dating Ike Turner but that was Shields for most of 2010. I never thought he got comfortable throwing to John Jaso and it showed when you look at the cERA’s on the staff as his results were much better throwing to Shoppach and Navarro. Shields has got to mix his stuff up because he has become too predictable. He throws fastballs and cutters to set up his putaway change-up and goes to cutters and fastballs when he is behind the count that get blasted. He has a great curve when you watch him throw it and see the pitch f/x data but he is stubborn about using it. He needs to not be so afraid of doubling up on pitches or putting someone on base. Walking someone 3-0 or 3-1 is better than putting a fastball over the plate that guys were routinely putting off and over the wall last season.

5) Rays saves over/unders for 2011:  Farnsworth 20 saves, McGee 15 saves, Waitress at local area Hooter’s 5 saves.

Nobody gets 20 saves.  Peralta and Farnsworth both get double-digit saves and McGee has the job by September to finish out the season.

From Around The Web

  1. Giant JJ says:
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    20 team 5×5. My Ichiro and Minor for his BJ Upton and Belt. I have a surplus of average and could use more counting stats. Thanks, and I really mean it when I say it. You’ll get daiquiris from me every year though I like to think you actually buy whisky and beer with my money. Daquiri is just a cute word you use to keep it silly. I get it.

  2. Luke T says:
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    With Byrd hot, and Beltran…DL in question, who do you keep on your bench to strat the season? 12 team league.

  3. Eddy says:
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    I know I’m quite late to the party on this one, but I finally saw the first season of The Walking Dead over the last couple of days. I’m someone who strictly watches series’ on Netflix simple because I can’t stand commercials and don’t have the discipline to follow a series on the air once a week.

    Boy, what a show. I love the goriness of it and how they truly make you feel like they’re in a zombie apocalypse. It tore my heart that it was only 6 episodes long. Good to hear they renewed it for 13 episodes, I believe.

    What’d everyone else think of it?

  4. Kevin says:
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    Yahoo! 16-Team, Mixed, H2H – Daily
    (7 Offense categories (TB, BB); 7 Pitching (K/BB, HLD))

    I like my team a lot, but don’t want to get too cocky. Catcher is a little weak and I’ll need Zobrist and Ramirez to bounce back a bit. Any thoughts?

    C: Jarrod Saltallamachia
    1B: Joey Votto (Keeper)
    2B: Ben Zobrist
    3B: Aramis Ramirez
    SS: Troy Tulowitzki (Keeper)
    OF: Matt Holliday (Keeper)
    OF: Jason Heyward (Keeper)
    OF: Juan Pierre
    UTL: David Ortiz
    BN: Chipper Jones
    BN: Justin Smoak
    BN: Juan Uribe
    BN: Peter Bourjos

    SP: Tim Lincecum (Keeper), Jared Weaver, Brandon Morrow, Jordan Zimmermann, Jorge De La Rosa, Edwin Jackson, Carlos Carrasco

    RP: Jose Valverde, Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Rafael Betancourt, Jose Contreras

  5. Anthony says:
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    One guy that nobody really seems to mention is Manny Ramirez. What do you expect out of him this year?

    Veteran bat in a decent lineup could see ManRam be the old ManRam again. If so, then grabbing him at pick 157 (according to mockdraftcentral) will be an absolute steal.

  6. elwood blues says:
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    keeper league contract question, NL Only 12-Team 4×4..

    In our league, I can extend the contract of Latos another year to $15 so I’ll have him at that price this year and next.. or I can keep him at $10 this year, but lose him as a free agent next year.

    My attempts to trade him fell apart with his injury.

    Thoughts?

  7. pubscout says:
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    grey-for the sake of argument, if bossman jr were eligible at SS, which side do you take in SSBJ for Hamilton?

  8. brad says:
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    My wife decided to join her league at work. 8 team auction league, with total bases and BB as extra categories. I drew up a basic game plan for each position, but she doesnt even watch baseball. I am absolutely shocked at how well she did.

    C Miguel Montero
    1st Fielder
    2nd Phillips
    3rd Zimmerman
    SS Tulo
    OF Holliday
    OF Kemp
    OF Sizemore
    UTIL Texeira
    UTIL Dunn

    SP Lester
    SP Hamels
    RP Perez
    RP Kimbrel
    P D Hudson
    P Chacin
    P Volquez

    bench: Chapman, Vlad, Colby Lewis, Ian Desmond, Vladimir Nunez?
    She spent over 200 on offense and still ended up with a pitching staff she can work with. weak on steals, but league is H2H and we can fix that.

    Im jealous.

  9. Clodbuster says:
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    I was hoping this Q&A would bring some more light to the Zobrist/Brignac/Rodriguez playing time and performance potential. Is the ceiling worth the headache with these guys? Zobrist stands out as fairly safe given his dual eligibility and playing time, but I don’t know where to value the other two. What say you?

  10. Joel says:
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    one Q today: I’m drafting 8 in a 12 team H2H 6×6 league (OPS). I want an OF in round 1 (and plan to take Youk at 17 for 3rd base or 1st, hoping Dunn falls to me at 31). Anyway, its looking like the guy at 7’s gonna take Braun. So, choosing btwn Cargo and Crawford most likely. We have a LF CF RF league, and Cargo has triple eligibility, so thats a huge plus for him. Here’s my Q: given that its a H2H league, how much weight should I put into cargo’s home/road splits? Is he going to be too inconsistent to draft in a H2H league in round 1? would you take him or Crawford?

  11. Mikey says:
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    Standard scoring 5×5 league
    4 keepers

    I’ve got Mike Napoli, and a guy wants to give me Chris Iannetta and a 3rd round pick (which translates to a 7th round guy next year with the keepers) for Napoli and a 9th round pick. Worth doing? I like Iannetta’s upside and it looks like he has the clear job, and worry about playing time for Napoli. Thanks!

  12. Wilsonian says:
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    Ok, so I’ve got me a few Cincinnati injuries on my 16 team H2H rotation and need to see what I do here.

    SP – Lester
    SP – Marcum
    SP – Gio
    RP – Kimbrel
    RP – Hanrahan
    P – League
    P – E. Jackson
    BN – Beachy
    BN – Cueto
    BN – Bailey

    Bailey and Cueto are both slated to start the season on the DL, and I only have room for one. Who do I drop Bailey for:

    McClellan, Tillman, Arrieta, Harden, Nova, Blanton, Hammel, Leake, Porcello, Narveson, Dice-K, Luebke, Buerhle, Harang, Zito, Wells, Kuo, Soriano, Hensley, Jansen (Romo is on waivers, but I’m 15th out of 16)?

    I know, shizz options. Standard 5 categories plus losses and Ks/9.

    Thanks man

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Giant JJ: I’d take Upton.

    @Luke T: Byrd

    @Eddy: Never saw it, but doesn’t sound like something I’d like.

    @Kevin: Your keepers definitely didn’t hurt. I’d prefer to see Bourjos or Pierre, not both, but your team still looks stacked for 16 teams.

    @Anthony: http://razzball.com/outfielders-to-target-2011-fantasy-baseball/

    @elwood blues: Just keep him for one year.

    @pubscout: Upton

    @brad: Your wife seems like a sweet lady, but it’s hard to not have a great team in an 8 team league. Right now, her team does look solid, but she has no speed and her average could be an issue.

    @Clodbuster: They’re all playing.

    @Joel: Go for CarGo if you want him. I’d take a 1st baseman.

    @Mikey: Sure

    @Wilsonian: Coulda swore I told you to drop Bailey days ago for Beachy. Romo, McClellan, Harang…

  14. GTS says:
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    Did I do okay?

    10 team H2H 6×5

    C: Arencibia
    1B: Fielder
    2B: Raburn
    3B: Longoria
    SS: Andrus
    MI: Castro
    CI: Wright
    OF: Holliday
    OF: J-Up
    OF: Werth
    OF: Tabata
    U: Pagan
    B: Trumbo
    B: Byrd
    B: D. Lee

    SP: Lincecum
    SP: Oswalt
    SP: Latos
    SP: Marcum
    SP: Chacin
    SP: Lilly
    SP: T. Wood
    SP: Beachy
    SP: Stauffer

    RP: Axford
    RP: Thornton

  15. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: you did initially, but then I asked about relievers and dropped Rauch, which obviously sucks for me now. I vow to never ask you a follow-up and will just go with your first response from here on out. Many apologies.

  16. Fletch says:
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    @Grey: I lost Lidge so who do like, in order, out of these guys:
    Hanrahan, Contreras, Rodney and Rauch? (that just looks awful)

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GTS: Bench hitters are kinda silly in a league that shallow. You’ll be dropping them within days. Not sure why you’d draft Latos, but the team looks fine overall, solid.

    @Wilsonian: Not initially, continually. I could’ve swore I told you repeatedly to drop Bailey and then you asked why and I told you, then Joe from Point Pleasant told you to drop Rauch.

    @Fletch: Hanrahan

  18. GTS says:
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    @Grey: Totally agree on bench hitters. I will drop them in the first week or two to pick up some more pitching. Latos was a keeper unfortunately and I’m still trying to trade him.

  19. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: you did tell me initially, and then I posed the question about dropping one of my relievers instead of Bailey, JFPP said Rauch, and I asked you if I should drop him for Beachy, which you replied “yup”. Now I know that was probably more likely to get me to shut the hell up. However, I won’t question you again. You say drop, I say “how fast?”

  20. Wilsonian says:
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    Also, two more questions:

    What do you think about Cecil’s loss of velocity? It’s being reported that he’s consistently in the 86-88 range when he was in the low 90s last year. Anything to be worried about?

    What do you think about Andrew Cashner in a deep league? It’s reported that he won the 5th starting job over high ho Silva.

  21. Don says:
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    Top of the day to ya Grey
    Would love your input on a few trade scenerios
    looking to deal some pitching to up the MI
    Let me know which one you like best, or which ones that look safe.
    I give Feliz/Brignac for Weeks/Meeks
    I give Feliz/Kendrick for Pedroi/Meeks
    I give Buchholz/Brignac for Hill/Stauffer

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Wilsonian: re: Cecil — Not yet. re: Cashner — Eh WHIP, decent Ks.

    @Don: I’d take Pedroia or Hill/Stauffer.

  23. Martin says:
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    @grey-just completed a 12 team mixed league draft. My team is

    C-Ianetta
    1B-Prince
    2B-Hill
    3B-Wright
    SS-Andrus
    OF-J.up
    OF-Cruz
    OF-Pence
    Util-Snider
    Util-Raburn
    Bench-Colvin
    Bench-Fowler

    SP-Hanson
    SP-Haren
    SP-Scherzer
    RP-Axford
    RP-Venturs
    SP-Daniel Hudson
    SP-Javi Vaz
    SP-Edwin Jackson
    SP-Tim Stauffer

    I like my team a lot but I feel like I need better closers and maybe less OF depth. Any suggestions who to trade and for whom?

  24. Don says:
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    thanks for your thoughts

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Martin: I wouldn’t exactly say you have closers. You have a closer and Venters. Your hitting and pitching look great though, In a league that shallow, Raburn’s not really a UTIL guy and Colvin’s not really ownable.

  26. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    I got so excited when I heard Barmes broke his hand for 4-6 weeks, thinking that EY Jr. will get a shot.

    Then I remembered Barmes is not even a Rockie anymore (sad emoticon).

    Anyways, with Ian Desmond slated to hit lead off, how does this affect his value? Better or worse?

  27. Bunting26 says:
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    Grey I would appreciate your analysis of the team I just drafted. Pretty competitive 12 team H2H 5×5 league. I had 9th pick.

    C- Posada
    1b-Votto
    2b- Rayburn
    ss- Andrus
    3b- Zimmerman
    of- Upton
    of- McCutchen
    of-Pence
    Util- Tabata
    util-Sizemore or Bourjos

    SP- Liriano, Sherzer, B. Anderson, Daniel Hudson, Neise, Norris, Minor,Mcdonald, Stauffer(Hodgepadre baby!)

    RP- Storen, Nunez, Aroldis Chapman, Gregg

    Thoughts. I know I don’t have a real lock down pitcher but I feel like you do that in a H2H league you want hitting and just go for quantity with pitchers. I like my top four of Liriano, Shiznit, Anderson, and Hudson and I think Neise could be sneaky valuable.

  28. Bunting26 says:
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    and that’s Justin Upton not BJ upton. Thanks!

  29. Nomar Mr. Nice Guy says:
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    @Grey: I just saw the friends and families draft on Yahoo. Team looks pretty good, way to go finishing 3rd last year. I have a couple question about the snake draft:
    First off way to practice what you preach: Stauffer @ pick 257

    1) What made you guys go with King Felix (well he’s not my King, I didn’t vote for him) at pick 24, I understand the league has an innings cap, so quality starts/innings are a premium

    2) Castro at pick 108 (Free Cuba!). Was this Rudy influenced, or do you see his value rising slightly?

    3) Finally, Justin Morneau at pick 61, we have a keeper league draft today, I was unable to keep a quality 1st baseman and Morneau is the best available. I’m nervous about his 0-13 streak in Spring Training, yea he’s probably rusty, but it could be his Post-concussion syndrome. I don’t want to get Post-Drafting Morneau syndrome sometime in April/May.

  30. Tebow's a Packer says:
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    @Grey: Just finished my draft. I realized somewhere around round 16 that neither Beachy nor Minor would be drafted. My hunch was correct. I live just outside the ATL…so I’d love to be the one in my league who reaps the benefit of a little hometown jock-sniffin’. My gut says to dump Rodney and slip Beachy into my clubhouse via the service entrance. However, I also suspect a HR/RBI deficiency on my squad. Perhaps I should be addressing that and forget about Beachy altogether. Thoughts?

    12 Team H2H/Yahoo!.

    C-Napoli
    1B – Youklis
    2B – Phillips
    3B- AROD
    SS – Jeter
    IF – Aramis
    OF – Pence
    OF – Krispy
    OF – Victorino
    UTIL – Vlad

    BN – Raburn, Manny, Alcides

    SP – Halladay
    SP – Haren
    SP – Billingsley
    SP – Buchholz/Lowe
    RP – Valverde/Rodney

  31. Jay says:
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    @Grey: Holy crap, my auction is tomorrow! I’ve been preparing for two months but somehow it still feels like it came up on me fast. I’ve always thought cramming for tests doesn’t help, but I’m wondering if I should spend 10 hours on last-minute auction value adjustments, or just sit back and watch some spring training and the NCAA games.

  32. Howie says:
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    @Grey: NL-only Roto auction coming up next weekend. I’m allowed a max of six keepers and have narrowed it down to seven. My dilemma- Strasburg or Chapman?

    I nabbed both for $1 late last year and have the ability to optionally retain players for two additional years at slightly higher prices (for these guys it would be $2 this year and $4 next year, if desired).

    Chapman should help with WHIP and ERA…and possibly saves depending on what happens in Dustyland. Strasburg would be a 2012-play only but I could get him for $4 at this point next season.

    What would you do? I suspect I could get Chapman again relatively inexpensively if I returned him to the auction pool as my league is small and there is a focus on saves vs. ERA and WHIP for relievers (this I exploit). If I return Strasburg and attempt to go after him again, I suspect his price becomes higher for this year (let’s say $8) which would create a $12 and $24 (you see the multiplier used) cost in years 2 and 3. The advantage, however, is if he does recover adequately, two years at those prices might be cheap (vs. just one year- next- at $4).

    FWIW, here are the other keepers I am contemplating and their keeper prices for 2011: Desmond $2, R. Zimmerman $22, McGehee $3, Krispie Young $5, Dread Pirate $2.

    Do you see any other ways to play this (e.g., return Zimmerman and keep both pitchers)? Thanks.

  33. royce! says:
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    Got the RCL Original Recipe draft tonight. I’ll be singing this all day:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwzBuN7jfjw

    [and thank God for it- I finally got that “friday” song out of my head…nope, it’s back. dammit!]

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Can’t hurt.

    @Bunting26: Your pitching is fine, I’d be more concerned you’re weak on power and heavy on speed. Don’t need Bourjos (and I wasn’t considering him).

    @Nomar Mr. Nice Guy: Wright was out with a concussion in 2009 and was fine in 2010. Don’t think concussions are as big a deal the year after in baseball, assuming he doesn’t get plunked or kneed again. As for the draft, I lost internet and Rudy took the reins after Swiggy. I like the team though, Rudy will have a post on Monday about it.

    @Tebow’s a Packer: Don’t dump a closer (Rodney), no matter how bad he is. I like your team overall, don’t think you’re that bad off in power. You are off in upside/exciting names, but that’s not terrible.

    @Jay: Don’t forget to breathe.

    @Howie: I’d normally say Chapman, but it sounds like you should stash Strasburg on your DL.

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Wow, that is a weird video.

  36. Rick Dempsey says:
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    @Grey: It seems as though your thoughts on James Shields are things he should correct but has there been any indication going into the season that he will modify his approach?

  37. supernova says:
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    Grey
    would you trade Dunn/Gallardo for Howard/Gio Gonzalez?

  38. royce! says:
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    @royce!: Check 1:03. I’m certain that it says, “I ain’t gonna beat my bitch tonight.”

  39. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, that’s pretty brilliant. I’ve always thought of Friedman as being very sabermetric, and wondered if such execs (and players) share such information with players. I could see not wanting to do so when the information points to a regression. Friedment: “Great season, David. Too bad you’re going to regress!”

    Re: the video. Yes, it is creepy. I suppose I could have kept it to myself. I’ll just go back to playing “Friday” on repeat in my brain.

  40. Slappy says:
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    Jason Collette? Color me unimpressed. We can start with:

    “Ever since his shoulder surgery…”

    Jason might want to look at the last two months of BJ’s “monster” 07 season.

    And hard to blame the shoulder for June 09’s: .324/.395/.562.

    Jason is the prototypical saberhead. All numbers crunching but no real insight into what the game is and what the numbers well and truly mean. More or less ignored his posts on Raysbb. For the other way of putting the matter, most of these “prospectus” types are as the name indicates, MBA types, who think they understand baseball as much they as they understand economics. Witness the recent collapse of the world economy owing to their “smartness”. That’s about how much they well and truly know. Oh, and note how he left JP Howell out of the closer mix. According to JP, he’s now throwing without pain for the first time since he left the Univ. of Texas. So when JP was on, he was on in pain. No more pain. Lastly, perhaps Jason might wish to speak with the physicist concerning the matter of the expected velocity increase on the fastball, what with JP putting on an additional 30 lbs over the course of his rehab.

  41. Bunting26 says:
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    Thanks for the advice Grey. I thought the same thing. I guess I’m banking on some guys like Upton and the dread pirate showing a little more power this year. I’m also banking a little on Rayburn giving me some pop at 2nd. But none of those are safe bets. I’ll probably need to work the wire/trade market for some more power at some point.

  42. johnny says:
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    5×5 money league 10 keepers. Opinions on my team.
    *McCann
    *Santana
    *Votto (traded my Braun before draft)
    Kendrick
    *Tulo
    *Longoria
    Asdrubal Cabrera
    *Konerko
    Sizemore (i need to add a bat for april in his absence-bourjous or brantley)
    *Matt Kemp
    Krispie Young
    Tabata
    Vladimir
    Ut-Mark Reynolds
    Ut-Mark Trumbo
    Bench-Justin Smoak

    Ubaldo
    Gio
    Ian Kennedy
    Kuroda
    Edwin Jackson
    Zambrano
    Michael Pineda
    Hanrahan
    Sergio Romo
    p/rp-beachy
    bench-Javier Vasquez RP/SP
    Wainwright-DL
    I get 2 adds (for sizemore/wainwright) after April 2nd (weekly lineup change). Free agents: Rauch, Madson, Gregg, Ardsma, Venters, Capps, Koji, B-Cecil,

  43. nyydj2 says:
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    HELP!! In need of First Inning Punchouts!!

    Thanks for your advice in my draft tomorrow on the forums Grey. One more quick Q for you. With my corners taking Rd 1 & 2 and my 3 OF keepers taking rounds 6,9 and 10, it leaves me Rounds 3,4,5,7 and 8 for upper tier choices. Where would you be with pitchers at this point? I’m leaning towards 2 SP and taking them in Rd 4 and 7 maybe? 13 SP’s gone to keepers.

  44. Rick Dempsey says:
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    @Grey: Ivan Nova got the rotation spot…..would you avoid him?

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: True…

    @Bunting26: You’ll be able to though.

    @johnny: If it’s just an April bat, just go with whoever’s hot. Can grab Bourjos for now though, if you like. Your hitting is better than your pitching, but that’s fine. Don’t really love your outfield.

    @nyydj2: If that works for you, it’s fine. I went over pitching pairings.

    @Rick Dempsey: Yup

  46. johnny says:
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    would my konerko for Ted Lilly(low whip) make sense?

  47. JG_ism says:
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    @Grey : wonder what your thoughts are…both leagues picked already.
    H2H (roto/keeper (not sure if they’re doing a kpr. waiting to vote)
    C-Arencibia,1B-Cabrera,2B-D.Espinosa,3B-Bautista,SS-S.Castro,IF-Raburn,OF-Heyward,OF-J.Bruce,OF-BJ-UP,U-Tabata,U-A.Torres,SP-Sabathia,SP-Price,SP-Morrow,P-hellickson,P-D.Hudson,P-Pineda,RP-C.Perez,RP-Axford, BN-M.Minor,Stauffer,Beachy,Colvin,Seth Smith,Freeman,Bourjos & M.Joyce….

    2nd team was CBS auction 4player keeper-(3 year)
    ($6) Arencibia-C
    ($3) Kia’aihue-1B
    ($34) Uggla-2B
    ($41) Longoria-3B
    ($9) S. Castro-SS
    ($1) Aviles-MI
    ($1) D.Valencia-CI
    ($17) Gardner-OF
    ($30) Heyward-OF
    ($16) Stubbs-U was actually just driving up price and got him
    ($27) Stanton-OF
    ($6) Raburn-U

    SP- kinda got screwed a bit here. prices were downright loony
    Cain(24), Morrow(7), Brett Anderson(2), Pavano(1), Stauffer(1)

    RP- Bell(18), Hellickson(5)
    BN-Chris Perez(2) Beachy(1)
    BN-Michael Morse(1), Travis Snider(1) Bourjos(1)

    @Grey your thoughts as always are insightful,comical,appreciated and borderline genius.

    Thanks

  48. Jay says:
    (link)

    How sure are you that Pineda’s making the Seattle rotation? I like his upside but don’t want to wait two months for him to pitch.

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @johnny: Yup

    @JG_ism: Thanks for the kind words! How many teams?

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Jay: According to Seattle, it’s his to lose.

  51. JG_ism says:
    (link)

    H2H is 12 team
    CBS auction was 13

  52. royce! says:
    (link)

    @Slappy: B.J. Upton had shoulder surgery in November of 2008, so his 2007 stats are irrelevant to any determination of the effects of the surgery. Now, he did have a great 2008 postseason, which occurred after his injury, but that could have been a matter of playing through the pain, and ultimately doing more damage to his shoulder.

    Also, picking one month (June 09) out of two years of data does little to prove your point.

    Lastly, if you have any insight into “the game is and what the numbers well and truly mean” I suggest you share it, instead of just talking trash.

  53. Steve says:
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    @royce!: Don’t be bringing any of that creepy stuff to the comfy confines of Original Recipe! ;-)

  54. Eddie says:
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    The Cubs won’t bring Carlos Silva North!!!! HE’S NOT GOING TO BE IN THE ROTATION!!!! I hope this doesn’t impact any of your teams, I’m just elated!

  55. JG_ism says:
    (link)

    @JG_ism:

    13 team cbs auction 4 player keeper is 5×5

    the other one, H2H is maddness, stats pts +/- all across the board. pitching being the most rewarded.

  56. Eng says:
    (link)

    Niese or Beachy or (gasp) Shields? And drop Dotel, right? Thanks sir.

  57. Eng says:
    (link)

    Also, Jordan Walden or Scott Downs…Who’ll take over in May?

  58. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Oh, and having a *very* hard time getting my head around the fact that Shields might be usable again.
    What’s worse is I think I lost the picture of him that used to hang above the fireplace when we moved house.

  59. Jangle says:
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    Great in site as always Grey!

    Question: how often do you update your rankings?

    Thanks again

  60. Wake Up says:
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    I might have overlooked it, but where does Pineda rank for SP’s?

  61. Calogero says:
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    Someone just took Stauffer in the 11th round of my mixed 12-teamer. We’re talking like pick 132. I think they might not truly grasp the concept of what makes a player a good sleeper.

  62. A man puts a gun to your head and screams, “CHOOSE ONE!”

    Rodney, Gregg, Uehara, Rausch, League, McGee, Farnsworth, Madson, Contrares, Capps

    Who do you take?

  63. herschel says:
    (link)

    @Grey: 10th round, 5 x 5 roto, utley still available. roll the dice or stay away?

  64. Tom Emanski says:
    (link)

    Grey, don’t know if you remember me but I’m back again as a reigning champ thanks to you. My league this year is an 18 team H2H using QS, SV, WHIP, ERA, HRA, and K/9. There are 5 slots each for SP and RPs. What’s my pitching strategy with these settings? Seems like starters aren’t as important.

  65. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @3FingersBrown: I put my money on Uehara (literally). Just feels like they are holding the job open for him pending health, which seems imminent. Performed well in job end of last year.

  66. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @3FingersBrown: Rauch blew the SV today and Madson poor performance after stating he wanted the job. Think Phils may well go with Contreras to fill for Lidge.

  67. Joel says:
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    even though Ryan rayburn is gonna play LF for Tigers, he has 2b eligibility in yahoo. You still liking/loving him as a late round 2B sleeper?

  68. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Joel: Know you aren’t looking for my opinion, but that one is an unequivocal YESSS!

  69. royce! says:
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    @Joel: I just want to add to the end of simply fred’s answer: “!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

  70. Joel says:
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    Thanks!! I haven’t had my draft yet (its tomorrow night). have you guys drafted? is he even getting picked? In a 24 round draft, when do you think I should pull the trigger on this guy? This could be a genius move.

  71. Yep, I said it.... says:
    (link)

    Which two of these very end-of-draft SPs do you like best, or dislike least?

    McClellan, Braden, Beachy, Vargas, Coke, Blanton, Wolf, or Capuano.

    Cheers!

  72. whodat says:
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    Cant figure out who to take at number 4 tomorrow if they go in the order i am assuming. Pujols, HanRam, Cabrerra. Please Help!!!!!!!!!!!! What would you do?

  73. Joel says:
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    @whodat: I go Braun everytime

  74. Joel says:
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    someone talk me off the ledge: I’m a dispirited Mets fan. Therefore I’m terrified to take D Wright in h2H. If he’s still there at 17, do I have to take him?

  75. chata says:
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    @Joel:

    raburn’s adp is 276.46

  76. chata says:
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    @Joel:

    wright’s adp is 11.35

  77. buge hoobs says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    How embarrassed should I be with this 10 team stand 5X5 draft?

    C: Wieters
    1B: Votto
    2B: Uggla
    SS: Drew
    3B: Wright
    CI: Dunn
    MI: Desmond
    3OF: Kemp, J. Upton, Manny
    2U: McGehee, Sizemore
    7P: Lester, Oswalt, Scherzer, Ed Jackson, D. Hudson, Marmol, Valverde
    4BN: Chapman, Kimbrel, Cahill, Kennedy

  78. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @Joel: He went #176 in our RCL draft (to Retro Vertigo who won our league last year), and ESPN does not give him 2B eligibility. He is valued.@Yep, I said it….: I took McClellan (#242) and Beachy (#266; but this was the night that news was breaking; might go earlier) and am happy to have them. We’ll see…

  79. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Joel: @chata: Beware ADP. Grey had Raburn ranked at #143. Might want to lean on his rankings.

  80. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @chata: Think Chata trying to point out you might get him cheap/later. Depends on who you are up against.

  81. Steve says:
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    Countdown is on to RCL Original Recipe draft.

    Commish has #4 pick.

  82. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Steve: Ha! Already, my chest is tightening, can’t breathe–not even my draft. :-)

  83. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    i have 11th,i like the 11,14 thing alot,but it seems forever between the next round

  84. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Tampa Bay has to be the worst shituation out there right now. I want to package one of either McGee or Farnsworth in a trade, but I’m not sure who’s going to get the most saves.

    It sounds like the Rays blogger thinks Farnsworth will, but Razzball is leaning McGee, or am I wrong?

    If you had to trade one away, who would it be?

  85. Eddy says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: @Steve: @royce!:

    Good luck in your draft, fellas! Be sure to post up some teams tonight.

    P.S: All those in RCL 9, you’re going down tomorrow night ;)

  86. royce! says:
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    @Steve: Lucky number 7! You are so going to regret inviting me!

  87. royce! says:
    (link)

    Because I overuse exclamation points! You’ll be like, turn it down!

  88. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    ive had 2 drafts so far,love my hitting,pitching a little iffy,might change it up a little tonight

  89. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Eddy: THINK opinion is that Farnsworth will get the job out of the chute but will pitch poorly enough to turn it over to McGee (who projects to get about 20 SV?). Personally, I would keep McGee because he should give you better periphs and won’t hurt you even if he doesn’t get saves right away.

  90. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Al, you bragging about getting Pena and Berkman for 1B and CI?

    The FULL story is that Al got them at #150 and #270. :-)

  91. Joel says:
    (link)

    one last Raburn and Wright question. you guys are great, btw. Much appreciated. My league is a h2h league. You think 1) raburn might not get enough playing time in the crowded Tigers outfield to rely on in h2h? and 2) do you guys think H2h devalues D Wright given his streakiness? Never played FBB before, can’t wait. Played alot of FF though, and Doc on this site is my go-to expert.

  92. Steve says:
    (link)

    @AL KOHOLIC: Couldn’t really follow your team in the auction – you’re happy?

    I like my hitting but missed out on bidding for Kershaw *and* Felix – conenction must have been down.

  93. Buge Hoobs says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    How embarrassed should I be of this 10 team 5×5 standard league

    C: Wieters
    1B: Votto
    2B: Uggla
    SS: Drew
    3B: Wright
    CI: Dunn
    MI: Desmond
    3OF: Kemp, J. Upton, Manny
    2U: McGehee, Sizemore
    7P: Lester, Oswalt, Scherzer, Ed Jackson, D.Hudson, Marmol, Valverde
    4BN: Chapman, Kimbrel, Cahill, Kennedy

  94. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @simply fred:

    Thanks. I pretty much agree, McGee has the better overall numbers, but he’s just cursed with being a lefty pitcher.
    @Grey:

    With Cashner getting handed the 5th rotation spot, I just wanted to know your opinion on him. Someone asked Keith Law who’d have the better season between Beachy and Cashner, and he answered Cashner, but I highly doubt that.Though Cashner is not a flyball pitcher, he is way more wild than Beachy.

    Whatcha say?

  95. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    fred,yeah really hoping kendry comes back soon,i wanted him in the auc suffer if he craps outtion,but couldnt trust having 2 teams
    STEVE yeah,i kept latos not knowing he was hurt

  96. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: Wagner a lefty and he pretty much dominated last year. AL East gave up most HR to lefties last year. TB might be well-served with lefty closer.

  97. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Eddy: Tell, TB to give me a call…:-)

  98. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @AL KOHOLIC: No need to hurry–I got TRUUUMMMMMBOOOOO!

  99. Buge Hoobs says:
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    sorry for the repost (81 & 97) I didn’t think the first one went through

  100. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @simply fred:

    True, but, I don’t see any managers handing full-time gigs to lefties.

    And Chapman will be an exception (much like Wagner was), but it’s a righty-dominated world in baseball right now.

  101. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @simply fred:

    And do you think that the AL East gave up more HR to lefties simply because there are more opportunities against righties?

  102. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @JG_ism: Neither team looks terrific. 12 team looks real light on hitting and I don’t love the pitchers you took. 13 team looks extremely light on hitting and pitching.

    @Eng: Niese, sure, drop him.

    @Steve: Ha!

    @Jangle: When something major happens.

    @Wake Up: 80’s

    @3FingersBrown: Rodney

    @herschel: Eh

    @Tom Emanski: Hey, man, how’s things? They wouldn’t be as important.

    @Yep, I said it….: Kyle and Beachy…

    @buge hoobs: Why? Doesn’t look bad.

    @Eddy: I think it’s Farnsworth too.

    @Joel: 1. No. 2. Nope

    @Eddy: It’s coming on Monday. High WHIP, decent Ks.

  103. O@Grey:

    OK RCL draft completed, as expected, many of my usual suspects were
    snagged up by sneaky Razzball readers, but overall I liked what I got. The team’s a tad wonky on avg and sb but those are the cats I feel are easiest to backfill. SP’s are stronger than I usually would draft but that’s how it went, I tried to get good value and hitters went higher than normal, especially in the r4-10 range.There’s a few guys in the lineup Im lukewarm on but people were of course grabbing guys off your board earlier than normal. Lemme know whatcha think.

    C Wieters (166)
    1b Howard (27)
    2b A Hill (94)
    3b Eva-Lo (3)
    SS A Ramirez (99)
    MI Nishioka (190)
    CI Pena (118)
    OF Kemp (22)
    OF Werth (46)
    OF Wells (123)
    OF Torres (171)
    OF Jackson (219)
    Util Colvin (267)
    Bench Damon (286) *Getting buzzed by this point and accidently autopicked he’ll be gone soon.

    SP Hamels (51)
    SP Weaver (70)
    SP Gallardo (75)
    SP Cahill (195)
    SP Kennedy (214)
    SP T Wood (238)

    CL J Valverde (142)
    CL J Axford (147)
    RP Madson (243)
    RP Bard (262)
    RP Sale (291)

  104. Buge Hoobs says:
    (link)

    Up getting a beer, playing draft host, inputing teams in war room, etc.
    Sitting in the 4 spot, I effin picked up Votto with Han Ram still in board and having a hard time letting go of blunder. Coulda, woulda, shoulda, DIDN’T!! Steaming the whole draft, so not sure how I did. Thanks for feedback!

    My U of Sizemore? As soon as I drafted him everyone said that he’s hurting, having a hard time bouncing back from surgery. Think abreu would be safer or stick with him for a while?

  105. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: Eh, Ozzie tabbed Thornton. Did I just use Ozzie to validate a point? …oofta.

    “And do you think that the AL East gave up more HR to lefties simply because there are more opportunities against righties?” Huh? Kinda’ supports my logic doesn’t it–wouldn’t hurt to run a lefty against all those righties.

    Eddy, not meaning to offend. Just weighing in with my opinions–sometimes they aren’t mainstream, but, hey, something else to think about.

  106. BSA says:
    (link)

    I miss half the draft and still feel like I went through the ringer (our team looks like it went through the ringer)
    The title for the evening – “A Fundraiser That Went Bad”
    Just when you think you can’t F-Up the number one pick autodraft finds a way.

  107. @Grey:

    BTW…that stuff about the feminist lit class…did that happen to you or just Grey Albright?!!

  108. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    @simply fred: What the hell was I trying to say regarding throwing a lefty against all those righties? Oh, yea. The righties are pitchers. Therefore, more home runs against all those righty pitchers. Therefore, fewer home runs against lefty pitchers. Maybe it will all make sense in another lifetime.

    Again, my point was, yes, AL East gave up the most home runs to lefty hitters and it would seem to me that lefty hitters would get fewer home runs against a left closer, and hence maybe win a few more games. Goodnight, Alice.

  109. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @simply fred:

    Please, no offense taken. I was actually asking that since I know you love getting into the statistics of everything and was wondering if you had known any percentage of lefties and righties.

    And I said that because it’s as if you say Votto faced 20 right handers and four left handers in a month. Obviously, he’d have more HR against righties. And personally, I think it’d be the same if it was the opposite–more lefties than righties.

    But, we do have a common ground in thinking that lefties should be run out more. I’m just pointing out that the majority of the managers don’t think lefties can be as effective for some reason. The Red Sox will definitely be vulnerable to that now with Ells, AGon and Crawford at the top of the order being lefties.

  110. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Elijah: Your pitching is very strong, your outfielder not so much.

    @Buge Hoobs: Stick with him.

    @Elijah: All stuff is me.

  111. Slappy says:
    (link)

    Royce:

    BJ’s June 09 means that his shoulder can’t be blamed for his poor performance. The body is a biochemical-bioelectrical machine. Do other machines drive like a Porsche when they are Hyundai? No, they don’t. So his June 09 means that his shoulder is capable of putting up that line every single damn month of the season. It’s within machine parameters, as it were. You get the point now? And if Jason doesn’t understand that, time for me to stop listening, as the failure to appreciate concept and construct is simply staggering.

  112. @Grey:

    Yah was one of those things where the OF’s I wanted were always snagged up a few picks before my turn. Werth was kinda a “Well all the guys I really like are gone, I still need a #2 OF” pick. Wells was a boring pick, but I think he’ll be good for 22-25 HR’s and 90 RBI’s so he works. Torres…well pickings were getting slim and Jackson’s just a SAGNOF doode.

    In retrospect, prob shoulda taken BJ Upton at 51 over Hamels but I dithered around til the timer was beeping and just rolled with Cole. He was good to me last year and should be good again. Was just a lot of bats taken early as would be expected so most of my favorites in the OF (J Up, Hey-Hey, Pence) were gone by r4-5

  113. Slappy says:
    (link)

    “My league this year is an 18 team H2H using QS, SV, WHIP, ERA, HRA, and K/9. There are 5 slots each for SP and RPs. What’s my pitching strategy with these settings? Seems like starters aren’t as important.”

    What is your minimum IP? If you have some low number, 10 IP or less, why would you take an SP? Grab the 5 best closers, meaning durable (likely to maintain their status), low ERA and WHIP, and high K/9. Then draft Takahashi and JP Howell, both of whom can be slotted in at SP (Howell will start the year on the DL). You will be well and truly blessed in you are drafting 1st or 18th, or close to one of those positions, as you can then take closers back to back, or very nearly so, and then again. Unless some others have figured out that SPs mean next to nothing in that format, I’d take hitters exclusively through round 7 and then spend rounds 8-12 drafting closers. Then fill out your batting roster, maybe some subs as well, and when the time is right, draft Takahashi and then Howell. Oh, and rather than bench batting subs, you might draft some bench pitching subs, say a Hong-Chi Kuo or a Mike Adams, with a low ERA and WHIP and high K/9, who can sub in for one/two of your closing RPs on a travel or other off day.

  114. @Grey:

    And just to roll out a team I really liked, here’s the random auction league I jumped into last week to see what I could do in that format. Yeah…outdrafting the average schmoe isn’t that exciting but not knowing the finer points of the auction format (first try at it), I thought I did great. My strategy based on what I saw from a couple mocks was to bid heavy earlier for anyone who seemed undervalued, do nothing for awhile during the middle, then use the remainder on cheapy guys and I think it turned out strong.

    C Napoli $1
    1b Fielder $25
    2b Sparky $21
    3b Beltre $19
    SS Theriot $1
    MI Phillips $17
    CI Howard $17
    OF Braun $31
    OF J-Up $19
    OF Pence $16
    OF Tabata $3
    OF Span $3
    UT Mini-Donkey $8
    Bench S-Rod $2

    SP Kershaw $17
    SP Verlander $17
    SP Lilly $9
    SP Kennedy $3
    SP Romero $3
    SP E Jax $1

    RP Valverde $7
    RP Thorton $4
    RP Kimbrel $5
    RP Lyon $3
    RP Rauch FA replaced Minor $1

  115. robert says:
    (link)

    im in a h2h standard points system on cbs with my friends that are more into fantasy football and i was wondering if you could rank tabata, jason bay, adam jones, jay bruce, colby rasmus, carlos lee, drew stubbs, and juan pierre. the leagues pretty standard, one point for walks, runs, rbis, and htis, two for doubs, three for trips, four for jacks, -.5 for ks. Thanks

  116. Oh and that was a 10 team 5×5

  117. Emporers Monkey says:
    (link)

    My RCL team……not thrilled about my OF or pitching depth, but I think I have a chance of not finishing last. I had 10th pick.

    C – Montero
    1b- Adrian Gonzalez
    2b- Phillips
    3b- Alex Rodriguez
    ss- Jeter
    MI- K. Johnson
    CI- Ike Davis
    OF- Pence
    OF- Victorino
    OF- Markakis
    OF- Soriano
    OF- Ibanez
    Ut- Freese

    SP- Jiminez
    SP- Marcum
    SP- Hellickson
    RP- Marmol
    RP- Thornton
    RP- Nunez
    P – Hanrahan
    P – Kuo
    P – Jansen
    B – Pineda
    B – Bedard
    B – Beachy

  118. @Slappy:

    Wow, Slappy

    I haven’t posted at RaysBB in over 3 seasons – sorry if you still have some kind of axe to grind with me or you feel I have not grown as a writer/analyst since then.

    Let’s look at the words of ESPN’s Jason Grey who talked to guys coming off shoulder surgery in May 2009:

    After a shoulder injury, it can be tricky to regain your swing. Both Carlos Quentin and Shawn Green told me how they needed to kind of rebuild their swings after shoulder surgery. Obviously, how each player responds is different, but considering Upton’s rehab lasted into the first week of the season before he started playing big league games again, it’s somewhat reasonable to assume Upton is still getting back up to speed in some respects. An early quad injury that knocked him out of the lineup for a few days and likely hampered him for a few more didn’t help.

    Being the diehard Rays fan that you are, you might recall that Upton admitted to adjusting his swing in late 2008 to compensate for the lack of extension he could get on his swing due to the shoulder when he knew the end of the season was near and he could have surgery. He said this in January 2010

    Upton’s offseason work has been more of a refinement process rather than an overhaul.

    “I think I did the overhaul last season — tried to figure it out all year,” Upton said. “And I came to the conclusion it was my shoulder. Now with the rest I’ve been able to have, it’s just refinement and getting my swing back to what it used to be. That’s coming along great so far. Hopefully I can continue to do what I’m doing.”

    Am I a stat-head? Sure. But I also watch every single Rays broadcast, watch a west coast game most nights when I’m writing, and have a network of industry people I can reach out to verify what I’ve seen in the numbers and on the film.

    As far as leaving JP out of the closer role, why not? He won’t be back until Memorial Day and it is extremely rare for someone coming off major shoulder surgery in that manner to hit the mound running with the closer role. Here’s an interview I did with Rick Wilton of BaseballHQ Injury Doctor fame that you may be interested in reading. This quote should jump out at you

    Simply put, a frayed labrum usually is a bit easier to come back from but as we are seeing from Chris Young of the Padres, a pitcher can still struggle trying to return from that injury. I went through the DL lists in 2006/2008 a while back and could not find a clear cut case of the pitcher making a full recovery yet. In other words, they did not pitch as well as they did before they developed the shoulder injury. Until I start seeing some clear cut examples that they had labrum surgery to repair a tear and they make it all the way back I will continue to project a difficult return from this injury/surgery.

    Extra body weight also equals different mechanics and what not and Howell has said his delivery will be different this year as he won’t have to fall off the mound so hard to create the tilt he wants on his pitches. The JP Howell we see in 2011 will be different in both his physical stature and delivery, but none of us have any idea what results are to be expected. He’s never thrown harder than 88 at any point in his career so to expect him to suddenly find another 2-4mph of velo coming off a major shoulder surgery is a bit optimistic.

    I have no problem taking criticism from anyone – but in the future, please bring the research with you to back up your points. After all, I’m just a baseball stat head with an education background rather than an economical one that believes in citing research.

  119. Mr2Bits says:
    (link)

    Grey : With Ivan Nova making a rotation spot, does he show up on your radar anywhere?

  120. Steelers Can't Lose says:
    (link)

    Nyjer Morgan was traded to the Brewers.

    Anyone wanna take a stab at predicting Grey’s Monday post title?

  121. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Elijah: Gotcha

    @Elijah: Team’s okay, but I will say Howard at $17 isn’t realistic. Or Pedroia, Fielder, Kershaw, etc.

    @robert: My rankings: http://razzball.com/2011-fantasy-baseball-rankings/

    @Emporers Monkey: Your pitching looks below average, but your hitting looks solid, so that’s good. Maybe a tad low in SBs. Overall, doesn’t look terrible.

    @Mr2Bits: I figured he was making the rotation spot since January and he wasn’t on my radar at any point.

  122. Bill Lumbergh says:
    (link)

    @Grey: What are your thoughts on Alex Gordon this year? He’s been on fire this spring. Does he qualify as a post-post-post-hype sleeper? Thanks!

  123. BTrain says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    Would you rather have A-Rod and Jose Valverde OR David Wright and Leo Nunez in a trade?

    H2H 5×5 standard categories

    Thanks!

  124. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    @Bill Lumbergh: You know when your boy just got cheated on by that hot girl? Then, the hot chick went on to date your boy’s boss? Well, Gordon is that hot girl. Too soon.

  125. chata says:
    (link)

    @Jason Collette:

    there are some among us who have sought out your opinion ,
    and have followed your play in expert leagues and mock drafts .

    cust kayin’

  126. Slappy says:
    (link)

    Jason:

    Anibal Sanchez. Made it all the way back. Another Florida guy. And unlike JP, he’s being asked to pitch for more than 3 outs.

    And it doesn’t matter what BJ says, as his June 09 speaks for itself. And the June 09 says that whatever he and we might think of his shoulder it doesn’t stop him from putting up a June 09 line, i.e., whatever the condition of his shoulder, it didn’t stop him from June 09 and so he is quite capable of replicating that line every single month. So it isn’t his shoulder but something else, as his shoulder didn’t prevent June 09. Maybe it’s his approach to hitting. And I’m sure you’ve heard the groans, uttered often enough on Rays boards, of ole BJ taking that fat fastball right down the pipe. Then he goes fishing for garbage. And his K rate has increased accordingly every single year. To give you some credit, you hinted at the approach problem with your, f it, I’m going yard (or something like that).

    Next, re JP, thanks for illustrating perfectly your conceptual ignorance. Mass is going to determine velocity. It’s elemental physics. Explains why your harder throwers are usually bulkier souls. And you can determine the mass as mass = weight/gravity (deriving from force = mass x gravity, and since you push down on the scale owing to the earth’s pulling on you, that would be weight (force on the scale) = mass x gravity, so if we want mass we simply move gravity to the other side of the equation and so mass = weight/gravity).

    And of course he hasn’t thrown more than 88 mph previously as he did not have the 30 lbs previously. Much like you threw at one velocity when you were age six and weighed what you weighed then, and then threw at a greater velocity at age twelve and weighed what you weighed then.

    Oh, and so you know, you are always accelerating. 9.8 meters per second squared. Towards the center of mass of the earth. Lucky for you, there’s the friction between you and the earth’s surface that opposes that acceleration and gives you a relative motion that is at rest.

    Lastly, a word from Jeff Kent, now retired, who in answer to the question, what effect did the steroid pitcher have on your hitting, said, all I know is that it meant that when I made contact, the ball went farther. Jeff understood mass and velocity, and that hitting is largely turning the mass and velocity in the other direction.

    Sorry, one more, from a piece titled Olympic Lifting Increases Pitching Velocity:

    “Newton’s 2nd Law of Motion

    a = f/m (f = force, m = mass, a = acceleration)

    Let’s put this into baseball terms. Newton’s second law of motion would state that to throw a baseball 90 mph would require 6.5 pounds of pressure applied to a baseball, with a mass of 5 ounces, for two tenths of one second (.20).”

    That said, do you think that 30 lbs more in weight might help JP apply 6.5 pounds of pressure to the baseball for two tenths of one second?

    By the way, the above also answers the question, why do you throw harder from a windup than just standing still and throwing the ball. Do you see the answer? The windup takes longer than just standing and throwing and so you are applying the force to the ball for a greater period of time. The other item is that the windup allows you to impart a greater force to the ball by allowing you to generate a greater momentum than that create by you simply standing still and throwing the ball. The greater momentum arises from your leg lift and your push off the ground. Do you think that 30 lbs pounds heavier pushes off the ground harder or less hard than 30 lbs lighter. Both of the mentioned items also explain why all throw less hard out of the stretch as opposed to the windup (less momentum generated and less time of applied force to the ball).

    Oh, and by the way, I don’t recall saying that his pitch velocity would increase by any specific amount, so next time, please don’t put words in my mouth. Thanks. And so you know, the difference in velocity can be marginal, since as the one great pitcher understood, hitting is timing and pitching is disrupting that timing, so any marginal increase in velocity will help, since the diff between his fastball and offspeed will now be that much the greater. Should help with the effectiveness of his changeup.

    Sorry, yet one more. Who in Diety’s Name is this Wilton character? His credentials are what exactly? Here’s Rick Wilton:

    One physical therapy expert I talked to today believes this injury is a bit harder to recover from…

    So he himself isn’t an expert, or he wouldn’t be getting advice from the physical therapist. He has about as much credibility, zero, as Will Carroll. By the way, to Anibal Sanchez, you can add Chris Carpenter, to name just one. And we’ll see this year how Erik Bedard does. He’s looking just fine so far (he’s on more than a few of my fantasy teams). Erik’s word to date:

    “I would say it feels as good as ’07,” said Bedard, who won 28 games with the Baltimore Orioles from 2006 to ’07.

  127. wilsoniam says:
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    grey, with morgan on the brewers, is he going to have value? or you think he will split time with carlos gomez? im just trying to get a jump here before everyone in my league hears he has a full time gig (if he does) lol

  128. @Slappy:

    With Upton, guys are going to tinker with a lot of stuff in season and pitchers are going to adjust to it. June 2009 was all about HR/FB rate as he was at 14% that month and somehow made more contact (only 23% K rate) than he did for that season. In June, pitchers were trying to work him with a lot of fastballs on the inner half and BJ made them pay. In July, they figured out he could’t get the extension needed on high fastballs and the pitchers adjusted and BJ’s stats went back down in the crapper.

    Yes, Sanchez has come all of the way back….and it took Sanchez nearly 2 full season to co so. He had his surgery in 2007, and was a 0.3 fWAR player in 2008 and a 0.7 fWAR in 2009. Jon Rauch had the surgery 2x – he missed all of 2001 and returned with a -0.2 fWAR in 2002 and he had it again in 2005 and returned with a 0.2 fWAR in 2006. If you want another closer of that quality on the Rays, then you must have loved the Troy Percival, Al Reyes days. Chris Carpenter is one of the exceptions to the norm, but look at Grant Balfour (in relief) Scott Mathieson (in relief), Chad Cordero (in relief), Jon Rauch (in relief), former top prospect Mark Rogers, Dustin McGowan, Brandon Webb , Kelvim Escobar, etc.

    Howell became the closer in 2009 almost by default but he was not used as a traditional closer like Soriano was last season. By the time Howell does come back this season, there is a good chance that one of Farnsworth, Peralta, or McGee will have established themselves in that role and McGee is being groomed for the role long-term as he has the highest ceiling of all of them.

    I didn’t put any words in your mouth — you said “expected velocity increase” in your original post, so you are clearly expecting an increase so my apologies for actually putting a number on an increase.

    I’m not a scientist, nor do I play one on TV, but I did pitch when I played baseball so I do know how the mechanics of it all work at a basic level. The bulk can effect mass but it also affects mechanics as your body type changes. None of us have any idea what Howell will be in 2011 which is why I, as an analyst, did not feel comfortable mentioning a complete wildcard in the closer mix among two knowns and one projected known. Howell is a mid-season trade acquisition for the Rays who may or may not pay off. It wasn’t until this time last year that we learned he was done for the year and he still hasn’t pitched in a game against hitters yet so we have no idea what he looks like. I am not in the business of giving advice to others based on complete unknowns.

    As far as Carroll and Wilton – they talk to people like Kremcek, Fleisig, Andrews, etc, who are the experts on the situation. That’s why I listen to them. They’ve been to AMSI and talked to that team, they’ve seen the surgeries and rehab and what not.

    The player is always going to be the most optimistic of the group between player, team, and trainer. That’s why I trust the stats and not the anecdotes because the stats do not lie. Draft Bedard all you want but he breaks down more often than my college car and that delivery of his doesn’t help matters.

    Having had 2 labrum tears myself and going through the surgery and PT myself, I tend to be extremely pessimistic with these types of comebacks and there are more examples of failures with these pitchers than there are of successes.

    If we’re going to stick to the facts and the research on this discussion, I am more than happy to continue it but if the personal insults are going to continue, this will be my last reply.

    I hope the rest of you enjoyed the initial insight and best of luck to you all in your fantasy endeavors this season.

  129. paulzone says:
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    Would love to hear your thoughts on this team in a 12 team, roto league 8×8 scoring incl. obp, gidp, err for batters and gidp, Losses, holds for pitchers.

    c- soto
    1b- fielder
    2b- hill
    3b- longoria
    ss- reyes
    rf- j upton
    cf – crispie young
    lf – lind
    util – vlad
    bench – man ram, raburn, tabata

    sp- sabathia, hamels, oswalt, d hudson, lilly
    cl- axford, kimbrel
    hlds – chapman

    Thoughts? Thanks.

  130. Slappy says:
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    Sorry, one more, from today’s Boston Globe:

    “The Red Sox were sufficiently concerned with the recurrent pain in his shoulder, but team doctor Arthur Pappas’s recommendation that Clemens have surgery on a “flap tear’’ surprised the pitcher, who told the Globe at the time he was unaware of the seriousness of the situation and angry with the way the team had handled it.

    Randy Hendricks, one of Clemens’s agents, went against the conventional wisdom of the time that a team’s diagnosis was the final word, and sought out a second opinion in August 1985, which is how Dr. James Andrews began to make his name.

    Hendricks connected his client with Andrews, who instantly connected with Clemens. Then an obscure orthopedist based in Georgia who’d operated on the shoulder of Auburn football star Bo Jackson but had no baseball clients of note, Andrews quickly diagnosed the specifics of the injury — the dreaded labrum tear — and performed arthroscopic surgery at the end of month.

    Eight months later, Clemens returned to the mound. In his fourth start of an unforgettable season in which he would win his first 14 decisions, finish 24-4, and earn the AL MVP and Cy Young awards, he struck out 20 Seattle Mariners.”

    Let me leave with this fine piece, titled the Pathomechanics of Shoulder Injuries (courtesy of ASMI.org):

    Extreme external rotation during throwing makes the shoulder prone to injury. As the shoulder externally rotates, the humeral head translates anteriorly. At maximum external rotation, the posterior rotator cuff may become impinged between the glenoid labrum and the humeral head. This “over-rotation” injury can cause degeneration of both the superior labrum and the rotator cuff.

    Many rotator cuff tears in throwers are located from the midsupraspinatus posterior to the midinfraspinatus area. These injuries are usually due to tensile failure, as the rotator cuff muscles tried to resist distraction, horizontal adduction, and internal rotation at the shoulder during arm deceleration. Biomechanical research supports this explanation, as the posterior shoulder muscles (i.e., teres minor, infraspinatus, and posterior deltoid) are very active in producing compressive force, posterior force, and horizontal adduction torque during this phase (Figure 3).

    Translation, subluxation, and compression of the humeral head can cause forceful entrapment of the labrum between the humeral head and the glenoid rim, resulting in labral tearing. The rapid rotations and large forces and torques produced at the shoulder during throwing make prevention of humeral translation quite challenging. Capsular laxity, as well as muscle weakness or fatigue, makes maintaining joint stability even more difficult, further increasing the chance of injury.

    Degeneration of the labrum can also be caused by the “shoulder grinding factor.” This factor results when the humeral head translates and subluxes during arm acceleration and arm deceleration. Humeral displacement combined with the compressive force and internal rotation during these phases causes the humerus to grind on the labrum.

    During the arm deceleration phase, a large inferior force must be produced. The inability to generate sufficient inferior force can lead to superior translation of the humerus. Because the arm is abducted, horizontally adducted, and internally rotated, superior translation of the humerus can cause impingement of the greater tuberosity, rotator cuff muscles, or biceps against the inferior surface of the acromion or coracoacromial ligament. Supraspinatus, infraspinatus, and bicipital tendinitis, or even abrasion wear may occur.

    Another type of shoulder injury is the SLAP lesion tear of the labrum. Although Snyder et al. described the most common injury mechanism for a SLAP lesion as a fall on an abducted and flexed arm, they did observe incidents of SLAP lesions from throwing. Andrews et al. observed a similar pathology, a tear to the anterosuperior labrum, in a series of 73 baseball pitchers and other throwing athletes. A traumatic episode was not present for most of these patients, and injury was believed to result from repetitive overuse throwing. In throwing, a SLAP lesion can result from the force of the long head of the biceps brachii pulling the labrum away from the glenoid. Biceps force is particularly strong during the arm deceleration phase, as the biceps contracts to both decelerate elbow extension and resist glenohumeral distraction. Laxity in the shoulder joint may result in increased shoulder compressive force needed, further increasing the demand on the biceps tendon labrum complex. This is supported by the findings of Glousman et al., who showed that the EMG activity level in the biceps was larger in shoulders with chronic anterior instability. Biceps force may be especially high in throwers with improper mechanics; in an EMG comparison between professional and amateur pitchers, biceps activity was greater for the amateurs. Because total force generated by the biceps is a combination of its contribution to elbow flexion torque and shoulder compressive force, evaluation of both of these loads may help explain the relevance of the EMG findings. With proper baseball pitching mechanics, maximum elbow flexion torque occurs before maximum shoulder compressive force. With improper mechanics these two loads may occur closer together in time, requiring a greater maximum force by the biceps.

    So, as should have been obvious, the torn labrum for the baseball pitcher, like whiplash for the motor vehicle occupant, is an acceleration-deceleration injury (pity the shoulder, which has to do all within its might to prevent your arm from traveling to home plate with the ball). And by the way, that’s part of the downside to JP’s 30 extra pounds, since unless his shoulder is strengthened as well, the extra momentum created by his increased mass will mean just that much more momentum that will need to be arrested lest his arm continue on to home plate with the ball. I can only trust that his surgeon has given him the proper shoulder strengthening regimen.

  131. Wake Up says:
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    To All
    Please pick one starter and one hitter

    Oswalt
    Price
    Scherzer

    Krispie
    Rasmus
    Stubbs

  132. Scott says:
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    Pick up Storen or Madson?

  133. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Wake Up: Oswalt. Krispie.
    @Scott: Storen. Madson doesn’t have a closer role yet. Contreras could beat him out for short term until Lidge returns.

  134. Slappy says:
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    Sorry, one more for Jason. I’m sure you’ve read this, from DRaysBay, as yours is the 3rd comment down the page:

    http://www.draysbay.com/2010/5/27/1489692/b-j-upton-overload-a-hypothesis

    There is nothing discussed in that piece, or the noted pieces, that blames the shoulder for anything. Perhaps what you all forget is BJ’s history. Leaving aside his 14 PA in 09 in the minors, over the prior minor league years, BJ hit 50 HR in 2145 PA. His HR total last year (18) exactly matches his minor league season high at Durham in 05 and his 09 total of 11 was only 1 shy of his 3nd highest total at Durham (12) in 04. Given all of his history, 07 was well and truly the outlying year when it comes to the HR. And in terms of the K, the same year he hit 18 HR, again, 05 at Durham, he also K’d 127x over 631 PA. And since you rely on the number, what do you think the odds were and are of him repeating his 07 BABIP of .393? Lastly, here’s a player who slugged even better in the minors than BJ:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=patter001don

    Compare their respective OBPs and AVGs as well. Clear advantage to BJ only in the ability to take the walk. Corey SLGed better and BJ hit for a slightly higher AVG. So BJ is Corey Patterson with the ability to take the BB. And to bring Grey into the discussion, BJ has only demonstrated 20 HR power but the single year in all his years of professional baseball. Otherwise, it’s 18, 14, and 12 as the three highest totals in the minors and then 11 last year.

  135. Slappy says:
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    Sorry, that last line should read: Otherwise, its 18, 14 and 12 as the three highest totals in the minors and 18 last year and 11 the year before.

  136. nick m. says:
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    I need to balance out my H2H pitching staff with another high-K, low-Whip pitcher. I was thinking of trading Andre Ethier for Josh Johnson. That would leave me with a bunch of boom or bust OF’s to fill 3 spots – I’d have Bruce, B.J. Upton, Markakis, Tabata, Sizemore, and Manny. Would trading away my most consistent, supposedly, OF away for Johnson make sense with what is left?

  137. Tom Emanski says:
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    Grey, here’s my only team this year. 18 team H2H league and I picked last. Stats: R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, NSB, QS, SV, WHIP, ERA, HRA, and K/9. Five SP and RP spots. And it’s a keeper league.

    BRUMFIELD OF DREAMS
    18 Prince Fielder, Mil 1B – Contract/bounce back year?
    19 Jason Heyward, Atl OF – Passed on Zimm, Tex, Kemp, Bautista, Howard, Holliday and pitchers for a superstar.
    54 Colby Rasmus, StL OF – Wasn’t much hitting left so took upside.
    55 Brandon Phillips, Cin 2B – Don’t love him. Could’ve had Beckham.
    90 Brett Anderson, Oak SP
    91 Brandon Morrow, Tor SP – Reached, but I love him.
    126 Starlin’ Castro, ChC SS – Best SS left
    127 Chris Perez, Cle RP – Passed on Valverde, Broxton, K-Rod
    162 Logan Morrison, Fla OF – Maybe a reach but power will come and it’s an OBP league.
    163 Gio Gonzalez, Oak SP – Reached for a favorite
    198 Matt Wieters, Bal C – Huge value. Hung around and fell to me.
    199 Frank Francisco, Tor RP – Worrisome, but he was one of few CL left.
    234 Jorge De La Rosa, Col SP – Got good value here.
    235 Daniel Bard, Bos RP – Hoping he replaces Bonita Papelbon.
    270 Michael Brantley, Cle OF – He’ll stay a starter right?
    271 Javier Vazquez, Fla SP –
    306 Zach Braddock, Mil RP – Huge K/9
    307 Eric Young Jr., Col 2B – Only found out after that he’s in the minors
    342 Desmond Jennings, TB OF – Rushed pick
    343 Josh Willingham, Oak OF
    378 Clay Hensley, Fla RP – Good chance he replaces Nunez
    379 Carlos Carrasco, Cle SP
    414 Brad Hawpe, SD OF – Ughh
    415 Casey Blake, LAD 3B – Ughhhhh
    450 Juan Francisco, Cin 3B – Ughh

    It was 30 seconds between picks so some were rushed like Rasmus, Phillips and the late picks.

    Thoughts? I’m screwed at MI and 3B.

  138. @Slappy:

    I made that same Upton- Patterson comparison back in July as a potential career path for Upton.

    It would be nice if 2007 never happened as it falsely set up some high expectations for him based on inflated HR/FB and BABIP. His 18 homers in 2005 were impressive because he was 20 and playing in AAA at an age most of his peers were in the Sally League or FSL, at best.

    He hit 24 homers in 2007 at age 22 with a 20% HR/FB ratio
    He hit 18 homers in 2010 at age 25 with a 11% HR/FB ratio

    Can he repeat a 20 HR season in 2011? Absolutely. He’s physically stronger than he was in 2007 now (hey, there’s that mass thing) and 100% healthy by his own admission. His G/F was 1.7 in 2008, 1.1 in 2009, and 0.9 last season as his FB% climbed from 31% to 40% to 44%

    I think it is a mistake to claim a guy entering his power prime years has peaked for his HR total, especially when said player has had such a unique career path. After all, he is just one of 27 players in the past 30 season to hit as many as 24 home runs in a single season at age 22. Sure, that list includes Wily Mo Pena and Frenchie Francoeur but that’s a group I’d rather belong to than be excluded from.

    His .187 ISO last season was matched by Adam Jones who hit one more home run in 11 extra plate appearances leading all 25 and under players in home runs with 19. If we include any age for ISO’s under the .187 that Upton had last season, we get 14 hitters last season who hit 20+ home runs:

    McCann , 566 PA, 21 homers, age 26 – 13% HR/FB
    H. Ramirez, 619 PA, 21 homers, age 26 – 14% HR/FB
    Pence, 658 PA, 25 homers, age 27 – 15% HR/FB
    McGehee, 670 PA, 23 homers, age 27 – 13% HR/FB
    Choo, 646 PA, 22 homers, age 27 – 15% HR/FB

    If just 6 more of his flyballs would have left the yard last season, he has a 13% HR rate on the season rather than the 11% he had.

    The analyst in me will be surprised if he hits less than 20 home runs in any of the next few seasons if he gets 600 PA’s in each of them.

    To sum all of this up, you and I are on the opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to what Howell can do and what Upton can do and we’re just going to have to agree to disagree and move on.

  139. Earl Battey says:
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    Slappy and Jason should get in the octogon and solve this once and for all.

  140. Mike from Jersey says:
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    Hey Grey. I did my razzball commenter league draft today and I’d like your thoughts. I think your going to kill a couple of my picks, but ill leave my thoughts at the end to tell you what i was thinking.
    12 teams, I had the 4th pick, in ( ) is the round i took them
    c- kurt suzuki (17)
    1b- billy butler (8)
    2b- martin prado (6)
    3b- alex rodriguez (2)
    ss- jimmy rollins (7)
    2b/ss- jason bartlett (24)
    1b/3b- pablo sandoval (11)
    of- ryan braun (1)
    of- nelson cruz (2)
    of- bj upton (5)
    of- jason bay (14)
    of- raul ibanez (18)
    util- ike davis (16)
    bench- michael morse (20), kila ka’ihue (21)

    sp- clayton kershaw (4)
    sp- david price (9)
    p- ryan dempster (13)
    p- jake westbrook (19)
    p- erik bedard (22)
    p- jon broxton (10)
    p- john axford (12)
    p- matt thornton (15)
    p- erik bedard (22)
    p- daniel bard (23)
    bench- jake peavy (25)

    offensive plan: I actually really like my offensive. I have 3 big time sluggers who can knock out 35+ (arod, braun, cruz) and 5 guys who can steal 20 bags (braun, cruz, bj (looking for 45 from him), rollins, and barlett). I think i did a good job for both. you’ll probably hate my prado pick, but i view him as pedroia minus 10-15 steals, so i like him. rollins is eh, but round 7 im willing to find out what he’s got. my of4 and of5 aren’t splashy, but my plan was get 3 outfield studs and make some waiver wire pickups to fill the rest. i also punted 2b/ss, but barlett cud surprise, maybe a cheap .275ave, 25steal season.

    pitching plan: i wanted an ace at a good price, and getting kersh at pick 45 i could live with. im ok with price as my 2. i like dempster cause he’s been consistant and gets k’s. westbrook i think is going to be great because of dave dunca, i feel a big year from westy (14w, 3.70era). and i normally figure i can pick up other pitchers as the year goes on, so while bedard starts healthy he’ll serve as my 5.
    i then scooped up 3 low priced closers (none taken before pick 117 overall) who can all end up in the top 5.
    overall im very pleased, but i expect criticism from you lol. let’s hear it

  141. Donnie Baseball says:
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    nolasco for Mclellan and Harang?

    also Nolasco or Volquez?

    Thanks!

  142. Howard says:
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    @Grey I’m finding the OF5 in a 12 team league pretty yawnstipating. Thinking of going with a blah-toon of Murphy/Diaz depending on the matchups. Maybe not so blah?

  143. chata says:
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    dempster starting the game , today , vs the rockies .

    colorado’s line-up features all left-handed hitters , 1-8 .

  144. Mr2Bits says:
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    Grey : 10 team keeper league thats H2H, 6×6 Yahoo that uses QS and 2 util spots. Can you critique me and let me know where I should look on the waiver wire.

    1. (3) Miguel Cabrera 1B
    2. (18) Prince Fielder 1B
    3. (23) José Reyes SS
    4. (38) Brandon Phillips 2B
    5. (43) Clayton Kershaw SP
    6. (58) Brian McCann C
    7. (63) Tommy Hanson SP
    8. (78) Mariano Rivera RP
    9. (83) Joakim Soria RP
    10. (98) Max Scherzer SP
    11. (103) Mark Reynolds 3B
    12. (118) Colby Rasmus OF
    13. (123) Jonathan Sánchez SP
    14. (138) Matt Thornton RP
    15. (143) Adam Lind 1B,OF
    16. (158) Carlos Quentin OF
    17. (163) Edinson Vólquez SP
    18. (178) Jose Tabata OF
    19. (183) Jorge De La Rosa SP
    20. (198) Jhoulys Chacin SP,RP
    21. (203) Brian Matusz SP
    22. (218) Manny Ramírez OF
    23. (223) Stephen Strasburg SP—DL stash for keepers

    Pitchers like Ediwin Jackson, Beachy are FA if they’d fit better

    Thanks

  145. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @chata: Interesting!

    Last year he actually had a better line,

    against lefties: .234 AVG/.373 SLG

    against righties: .252 AVG/.400 SLG

    He did alright in the 1st!

  146. chata says:
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    @simply fred:

    kinda early in the day for you , isn’t it ?

    nice to have some company .

  147. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @chata: weekend, no grandkids. don’t think I’ve seen that kind of matchup before. thanks for the headsup!

  148. James Redacted

    potts19 says:
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    Grey, can’t seem to locate the target stats for a 10 team league. Help please!

  149. Steve says:
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    @simply fred: @chata: How is my boy Dempster going? Never owned him before and now I have him on a couple of teams.

  150. Dad says:
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    @Grey @Anyone: 16-Team H2H, 8×6 with OBP & K’s.

    Knee-jerk reaction? Any obvious add/drops?

    C – Arencibia
    1B – Pena
    2B – Cano
    3B – Beltre
    SS – Reyes
    OF – Heyward
    OF – Werth
    OF – Wells
    UTIL – Pierre
    BN – Alex Gordon
    BN – Snider

    SP – Weaver
    SP – Billingsley
    SP – Kuroda
    RP – Axford
    RP – League
    P – Kennedy
    P – Uehara
    P – Niese
    BN – McDonald

    Some notable FA’s: Bedard, Beachy, Drabek, Rusell Martin, Berkman, LaPorta, Matsui, Gomes, Pierzynski, Molina

    Thanks

  151. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Steve:

    4 IP: 5 hits, 2 BB, 3 ER, 2K

  152. chata says:
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    @Steve:

    sorry , had to step away for a bit .

    dempster has given up 5 hits in 4 innings .
    unfortunately , 2 of those hits were to back-up back-stop
    j. morales , and yielded 3 runs .

    missed you at the razz draft .
    auto-pilot wasn’t kind to you .

  153. Steve says:
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    @simply fred: @chata: Ah well – it’s only Spring Training. Which I obviously wouldn’t be saying if he’d pitched well ;-)

    @chata: I just ran out of time to do my rankings, though I have noticed a couple of guys that did OK for me last year did find their way on to my team.

    I’ll ‘rehabilitate’ my team via the wire in the next few days.

  154. Durb says:
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    Just finished my draft, 10 team H2H. Just looking for some feedback.

    C (137) Matt Wieters (Bal – C)
    1B (4) Miguel Cabrera (Det-1B)
    2B (57) Rickie Weeks (Mil-2B)
    3B (24) Kevin Youkilis (Bos – 1B)(3B)
    SS (97) Stephen Drew (Ari – SS)
    OF (17) Carl Crawford (Bos – OF)
    OF (37) Jason Heyward (Atl – OF)
    OF (44) Justin Upton (Ari – OF)
    UTL(64) Mike Stanton (Fla – OF)
    UTL(144) Aramis Ramírez (ChC – 3B)

    SP (77) Matt Cain (SF – SP)
    SP (84) Brett Anderson (Oak – SP)
    SP (104) Chad Billingsley (LAD – SP)
    SP (117) Daniel Hudson (Ari – SP)
    SP (157) James Shields (TB – SP)
    RP (124) Mariano Rivera (NYY – RP)
    RP (204) José Valverde (Det – RP)

    BN (164) Manny Ramírez (TB – OF) (Flier, Fresh start, Comeback?)
    BN (177) Brian Roberts (Bal – 2B) (Dont trust him or Weeks)
    BN (184) Grady Sizemore (Cle – OF) (Flier, Comeback?)
    BN (224) Ian Desmond (Was – SS) (Last pick of the draft)
    BN (197) Edwin Jackson (CWS – SP)
    BN (217) Javier Vázquez (Fla – SP,RP)

  155. @Dad:

    In a 16 team league that looks strong, especially if Reyes can do what he do.

  156. Bobo Brazil says:
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    Your thoughts on this team? 12 team, H2H

    Categories:
    R, HR, RBI, TB, SB, AVG, OBP
    W, L, SV, ERA, WHIP, QS, K

    C- Doumit (round 24)
    1B- Pujols (1)
    2B- Beckham (11)
    SS- Brignac (18)
    MI- EYJ (21)
    3B- Sandoval (8)
    OF- Holliday (2)
    OF- Kemp (3)
    OF- Bruce (5)
    UT- Krispie Young (7)
    BN – Granderson (9)

    SP- Kershaw (4)
    SP- Liriano (6)
    SP- Anderson (10)
    SP- Daniel Hudson (12)
    RP – Broxton (13)
    RP – Kimbrel (16)
    P- Franklin (17)
    P – Kuroda (14)
    P- Zimmermann (15)
    P – Hanrahan (21)
    P- Chacin (20)

    Overall, I think it’s alright. I took Kershaw earlier than I wanted to. When I picked Granderson, I didn’t see that Oswalt was available.. so that made me mad as well.

    I feel like I got some good picks at the end as well.

    Unfortunately, I missed out on my targets for SS, 2B, MI (Hill, Escobar, Raburn.) EYJ was optioned to the minors, so I gotta find another MI

    Right now, I’m working on a deal to acquire Ryan Zimmerman, Justin upton, Joakim Soria, Brandon Morrow, Alcides Escobar for Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw, Curtis Granderson, Joel Hanrahan, Johnny Cueto, EYJ.

    It hurts my staff, but I think I’m deep enough and have enough quality guys that I can take the hit… I upgrade at 3B with Zimmerman, SS with Escobar, OF with Upton, and Soria in the pen. Morrow is a question mark with his latest injury… but has some upside.

  157. chata says:
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    @Bobo Brazil:

    now you’ve piqued my interest , Roy .

  158. Eddy says:
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    I may need a 2B to fill in for Hill in the beginning of the season.

    Scutaro or Espinosa?

  159. dja says:
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    just drafted this team in a 12 team 5×5 with obp and era. how does it look?

    C – Wieters
    1b – fielder
    2b – phillips
    ss – rollins
    3b – david wright
    of – andrew mccutchen
    of – bj upton
    of – curtis granderson
    util – vernon wells
    bench – grady sizemore
    bench – gaby sanchez

    sp – zack grienke
    sp – dan haren
    sp – daniel hudson
    rp – francisco cordero
    rp – brandon lyon
    rp – joel hanrahan
    rp – brandon league
    bench – jordan zimmermann
    bench – ian kennedy
    bench – edwin jackson

    i feel pretty worried about home runs, but whenever my turn came up (10th), there was never much power to take.

    thoughts?

  160. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Bill Lumbergh: Okay for a flyer if you want, I’m not owning him.

    @BTrain: Wright

    @wilsoniam: Writing a post for tomorrow.

    @paulzone: Your team looks stacked. I was gonna say your pitching is too strong but your hitting looks fine.

    @Scott: Storen

    @nick m.: If you need an SP.

    @Tom Emanski: Eh, the team looks okay. You have like one useful pick after 270. You might only get 300 innings from your first two starters. Your hitting looks pretty weak after Wieters but I have no idea if those are starters.

    @Mike from Jersey: Your hitting is great, but your pitching looks pretty atrocious. You’re gonna have to piece together a staff. Possible, but not always easy.

    @Donnie Baseball: Nope and no.

    @Howard: The reality is you’re just gonna grab a waiver wire guy at some point.

    @Mr2Bits: Team looks solid. Jackson over Matusz.

    @Dad: Team looks very solid. I’d hold for now.

    @Durb: Your hitting looks very solid, but your pitching looks weak for a 10 team league.

    @Bobo Brazil: I agree with what you said… You’re weak up the middle because your pitching staff is a little too strong.

    @Eddy: Espinosa…

    @dja: You are weak on power. Sanchez on your bench isn’t going to help that. Your pitching looks very solid though.

  161. B.J. says:
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    Grey-

    So I just finished the draft for my 10 team Yahoo H2H league. I had the 5 pick.

    What do you think of my team?

    C- Posada 1B- Miggy C 2B- Beckham SS- Ramirez 3B- Zimm
    OF- J. Upton, A. McCutchen, J. Bruce UTIL- Fielder
    SP- Hanson, Weaver RP- Marmol, Thornton
    P- Anderson, Nolasco, Lilly
    Bench- Utley (will go to DL), G. Floyd, J. Zimm, Pineda, Romero
    DL- Greinke

    With Utley and Greinke both soon to be on the DL I’ll have 2 empty spots and will likely grab Storen to help with saves and probably the best available SP once the dust settles (Stauffer?)

  162. KarlJ. says:
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    Had a 10 team 5×5 draft earlier today.
    It’s a pretty shallow league. I think I am pretty strong on Average, Runs and SB’s but only so-so on power. I think my pitching is decent enough for a ten team league. I am somewhat concerned I need another top 15 OF ( Was trying to snag one early but Holliday, Upton, Cruz, Choo all before me in the 3rd round) What are your thoughts Grey?

    C- Posey
    1B- M. Cabrera
    2B Pedroia
    3B Wright
    SS Jeter
    OF Heyward
    OF Gardner
    OF Corey Hart
    OF Travis Sinder
    UT Morneau
    SP Kershaw
    SP Buchholz
    SP Anderson
    SP Chacin
    RP Street
    RP Thornton
    P Nolasco
    P Storen

  163. AnotherFalstaff says:
    (link)

    @Grey – Drafting my 12 team H2H in a half hour. After taking Albert 1st, I have a feeling I’m looking at Holliday/Crawford/Kemp/Reyes/Youk at the the 24/25 turn. Which two do you like there?

  164. Jay says:
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    @Grey: Supposedly Mike Minor has a chance to start for Jar-Jar on 4/6 if Jar-Jar isn’t healthy… which is not the biggest “if” in the world.

  165. herschel says:
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    @Grey: 12 team, 5 x 5 roto (2 keepers per team). had draft yesterday. would appreciate any thoughts. thanks in advance.

    C – Napoli
    1B – Votto
    2B – A. Hill
    SS – Tulo
    3B – Youk
    OF – Cargo
    OF – Kemp
    OF – Tabata
    DH – ManRam
    SP – Gallardo
    SP – Scherzer
    SP – B. Anderson
    SP – D. Hudson
    SP – MadBum
    RP – K-Rod
    RP – Valverde

    Bench Hitters – Michael Young, SeanRod, Byrd, Fowler, D. Jennings
    Bench Pitchers – Kuroda, Dice-K, Beachy, Peavy, Kimbrel

    Also, Venters, Madson and Farnsworth are all available on waivers. Any of them worth grabbing? Leaning towards Venters only because I have Kimbrel.

    Thanks again!

  166. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @B.J.: Your pitching looks a little light for a 10 team league, but there will be guys to grab. Your hitting looks fine.

    @KarlJ.: Yeah, your outfield isn’t great for a 10 team league but there will be guys to grab. Not crazy about your pitching either though.

    @AnotherFalstaff: Sorry, got the question late.

    @Jay: Yeah, we’ll see.

    @herschel: Lose Dice-K for Venters. Your team looks fine, it’s a shallow league, all teams are going to look decent. You’re probably lower on power than other teams.

  167. zzzzzz says:
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    Just finished:

    C – Napoli
    1B – Votto
    2B – Weeks
    3B – Youk
    SS – Andrus
    OF – BJ-Up
    OF – J-Up
    OF – Werth
    U – Pence
    U – Reynolds

    SP – Haren
    SP – Oswalt
    SP – Marcum
    SP – Hudson
    SP – Lilly
    SP – Baker
    SP – Chacin
    SP – Kuroda
    SP – Nolasco
    SP – E. Santana
    SP – Vazquez

    RP – Marmol
    RP – Valverde

    10 team H2H

    Love to hear your thoughts (I know my league is shallow).

  168. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    Sergio Romo, Balfour, or Shawn Burnett to start the season? Balfour and Burnett are both splitting duties, and Romo MIGHT be the closer if Wilson goes to the DL. I know it’s shizz, but who do ya like?

  169. AnotherFalstaff says:
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    @Grey – That’s OK. Here it is – 12 team H2H redraft.

    1. Pujols – 1B (1)
    2. Holliday – OF (24)
    3. Youk (25) – DH – 3B (when eligible – 5 games CBS)
    4. Gallardo – SP (48)
    5. Kemp – OF (49)
    6. Greinke – SP (72)
    7. Reyes – SS (73)
    8. Oswalt – SP (96)
    9. Bruce – OF (97)
    10. B Anderson – SP (120)
    11. Beckham – 2B (121)
    12. Buchholz – SP (144)
    13. Thornton – RP (145)
    14. Kimbrel – RP (168)
    15. Chacin – SP (169)
    16. Cueto – SP (192)
    17. C. Perez – RP (193)
    18. C.J. Wilson – SP (216)
    19. Posada – C – (217)
    20. McDonald – SP – (240)
    21. Tabata – OF – (241)
    22. Chipper – 3B – (264)

    I’ll drop Chipped when Youk gets 3B eligibility for another SP/RP and move Tabata to DH. Snider also available on the WW for DH. Thanks!

  170. Turkey Teeth says:
    (link)

    Looking for feedback here. 10 Team, H2H (7×6: Offense: Avg, R, RBI, HR, SB, OBP, K. Pitching: W, L, K, SV, ERA, WHIP).

    C: Napoli (135)
    1B: Votto (6)
    2B: Pedroia (35)
    SS: Reyes (26)
    3B: Wright (15)
    OF: Pence (55)
    OF: Krispie (66)
    OF: Rios (86)
    Util: Ellsbury (106)
    Util: Delmon Young (115)
    BN: Pedro Alvarez (166)
    BN: Zobrist (175)
    BN: Travis Snider (206)
    BN: Tabata (226) !

    SP: Lester (46)
    SP: Liriano (75)
    SP: Scherzer (95)
    SP: Chacin (155)
    SP: Ian Kennedy (195)
    RP: F. Rodriguez (126)
    RP: Broxton (146)
    BN: Jordan Zimmermann (215)

    DL: Cueto (186)

    Any area I should look for to fill Cueto’s spot once he’s DLed? I’m kinda in love with this team, but please let me know if it’s worth canceling my subscription to Skin-emax.

  171. chata says:
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    @AnotherFalstaff:

    tell me your heart wasn’t racing , as you saw kemp
    falling to you at 48/49 .

  172. chata says:
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    @Turkey Teeth:

    rios and ellsbury falling 3 and 4 rounds later than their adp’s .
    nice .

  173. AnotherFalstaff says:
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    @chata – ‘Bout as much as seeing Reyes fall to 73.

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