Fantasy Baseball Advice

Archive for September, 2010

One Game Playoff for Fantasy Baseball

September 27, 2010 By: Grey Category: fantasy baseball strategy 71 Comments →

Yahoo’s fantasy baseball doesn’t count a one game playoff, no matter the format.  It would be the Keyser Söze of regular season games, I suppose.  ESPN, on the other hand, does count it.  So that means only one thing.  You need to pick up everyone from potential one game playoff teams before your leaguemates, if it could mean a championship for you.  If the season would’ve ended yesterday, the Giants and Braves would’ve had to play one more game.  If that’s the case next week, that would put Derek Lowe and Bumgarner on the mound.  If the Padres have to play one more game, Chris Young’s ticket would get punched.  Chacin, if the Rockies can put the Rock in Rocktober.  This, of course, wouldn’t mean these guys would all go nine innings.  If any of these clubs make the “One day is all you got” portion of our program, then all hands would be on deck.  First sign of trouble, the starter gets pulled and another starter (usually the guy with the most rest) goes in.  So then you would have a starter on three days rest pitching or a long man out of the bullpen.

As for hitting, the sooner you can grab the McLouths, Melkys, Cody Rosses, Fowlers, etc. etc. etc., the sooner your leaguemates can’t.  In redraft leagues, I’d start looking at these guys no later than Friday.  Grab all possible unlikely heroes, if you need any hitting stats.  That’s right, this may be the only time you see me fully endorse picking up Eli Whiteside, Todd Helton and David Ross.  Even David Eckstein.  Well… No, even him.  Most importantly, if your opponent needs any stats at all, block them from getting them.  So if this means owning Peter Moylan for no reason other than you’re afraid your opponent might get a vulture win and beat you, then own Moylan, in the non-biblical sense, of course.

High On Cainabliss

September 27, 2010 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 29 Comments →

Matt Cain had a no-hitter through eight innings until an infield single by Jay Payton (who I believe runs with a cane, ironically enough) broke it up.  Final line for Cain was 9 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks to bring his season ERA to 2.95.  (Fancy metric alert!)  Last year, Cain’s xFIP was almost a run and a half greater than his ERA.  Or if Joe Morgan’s reading, gibberish gobbledygook > meaningful stat.  This year, more of the same.  So my question to you is, does Matt Cain want the Fangraphs Database to commit seppuku?  Leave FD alone, it’s still trying to figure out Austin Jackson’s BABIP!  Personally, I’m done fighting Matt Cain and his lucky ways.  I’ve overthought enough.  (Overthinked?  Overthunked?  Am I overthinking this?)  He’s in a pitchers’ park and he doesn’t give up homers.  Are they associated?  Probably.  He strikes out a fair amount and his walks have been in check this year.  Looks like a number #2 starter.  Wrap it up, I’ll take it.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Freddy Sanchez – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs.  Now hitting over .400 in the last week with homers in back-to-back games.  If it wasn’t the last week, I wouldn’t even mention him.  But right now, it’s not a bad time to ride Dirty Sanchez.

Cody Ross – 2-for-4 and 3 homers this week.  Andres Torres returned for a second and pushed Ross to the bench, but now the Giants think Torres might’ve been rushed, so Ross could see time.

Melvin Mora – Hit his third homer in the last 8 days (which is a week if you count Muesday).  Mora’s family has a hard time speaking positive about him, so let’s leave it at he’s hot.

David Aardsma – DA has been charged with an oblique strain.  As soon as they find out where and what the oblique is Aardsma should return.  I’m thinking next year, the M’s say in a few days.  Makes no sense to me.  Why run your not-at-hundred-percent closer out there?  To avoid loss number 100?  I grabbed Brandon League in, uh, leagues where I needed saves.  My suggestion is you do the same then when you ring me up in the offseason we’ll have something to talk about.

Miguel Cabrera – Hit his 38th homer and, according to ESPN, he got an MVP chant.  This is news?  They were in Detroit.  They ain’t chanting “Ford was a Nazi,” that’s for sure.

Rick Porcello – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Twins B squad.  Porcello gets the Suckie-O’s next.  Not a huge fan of Porcello, but that’s not a terrible matchup.

Jose Valverde – Pitched an inning on Sunday and should be safe for the final week.  I’d lose Coke.  Ron Washington, “What are you losing?!”

Brian Duensing – 6 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  The music finally skipped a beat on The Duensing Machine.  I’d lose him in all leagues.  It was smoke and mirrors before and that went poof.  You don’t want to run him out there again.

Delmon Young – Hit his 19th homer.  I’m still on board with Delmon in keepers, but I’m wondering if he might be overrated next year like Sandoval and Butler were this year.  Doode’s definitely got girth, but I like 30+ homer potential from my outfielders.  December Grey will have to examine this Rubik’s moobs.

Jason Frasor – Recorded the four out save as Gregg sat on the bench.  *shrugs*  Honestly, not sure why.  If you’re totally desperate for saves, I’d grab Frasor.

Alfredo Simon – Got thrown out the game for throwing at Bautista.  Unsurprisingly, the ball plunked off Bautista’s forearm and went for a homer.

Mike Aviles – 2-for-5 with a slam & legs.  Jeff Feenuttle who?!  Actually, that’s a made-up name, but Aviles has been good even if you compare him to someone who’s real.  Aviles has 4 homers in the last ten games and is batting over .300.

Billy Butler – 3-for-3, raising his average to .320.  Butler has always been terrific in Spring Training to earn the nickname, Mr. Grapefruit.  He’s now proving he just hits well when there’s nothing on the line.  Assuming that’s not a buffet line.

James Shields – 6 IP, 5 ER vs. the M’s.  Here’s what I said in February (!) when I was mocking ESPN’s mock draft, “(The pick of Shields at 152) is not a pick I would make, but this isn’t so much about the time when Shields was drafted.  The real knee to the balls is in the comments where (ESPN) wrote, “Becquey takes James Shields with pick No. 152, and many lament that Shields is off the board.”  Why? Because of his mediocre K-rate?  Is it his increasing walk rate?  Is it his inability to pitch in away games?  Is it his division?  Are they using a new definition of lament?  Seriously, I have to stop before I get an aneurysm.”  Schadenfreude, snitches!

Paul Maholm – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Astros, who he owns.  Don’t press your luck with Maholm for another start and get whammied.

Pedro Alvarez – 3-for-5, hitting over .300 in the last week with 2 homers.  As I said last week (or think I said), Alvarez has been very streaky in his short career, right now it’s the good kind of streaky.

J.A. Happ – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Though there were some unearned runs for the ticker shock.  He gets the Cubs for his final start, which isn’t terrible.

Brandon Beachy – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Beachy is shore doing well.  (Clever with a capital K!)  Might be an interesting name to look at next year, but I wouldn’t mess with him in his final start vs. the Phils.

Ryan Braun – 2-for-4 with his 24th and 25th homers.  I don’t care when they come, just get to 30.  Stats!

Carlos Beltran – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  As long as none of my direct competitors this final week have Beltran, I kinda hope he hits 25 homers in the last week so some ESPN rubes draft him crazy early next year.  ESPN, you are my fodder!

Chase Utley – 1-for-4 with his 16th homer.  What’s that, Martin Prado had a better season?  I will now eat an apple laced with cyanide.

Clayton Richard – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Holy heffin’ hey, is this the most runs ever given up in Petco?  Did they play with the Rock ‘n Jock short fences?  What are you doing to me, Richard?  It’s the final effin’ week.  You better look over your shoulder next time you’re alone in the Gaslamp, you schmohawk.

Chad Billingsley – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 13 Ks.  Sonavabench!  (BTW, of course he didn’t get the win.  If he were throwing a perfect game, they’d still be playing because no pitchers I own can get a win.  I’m cursed.  Stupid Zoltar!)

Danny Espinosa – 2-for-3.  Another streaky youngster who has 3 homers in the last week.  (Look at me, I’m an oldster, saying things like youngster.  Now get off my lawn!)

Matt Thornton – Got the 2 inning save yesterday.  Chris Sale was used on Saturday but he only threw 9 pitches so he couldn’t have been tired.  Ozzie probably just forgot he said Sale was the closer.  Between alleged racism and Twitter, it’s a lot for Ozzie to keep straight.

Trevor Cahill – 4 IP, 7 ER.  I told you he was getting lucky (probably three months too early)!

Mitch Moreland – 3-for-6, 5 RBIs with 2 homers.  Moreland was hitting below .100 in the last week before this game, so I’m not sure yet if this is a sign or a freak occurrence.  BTW,  yesterday there were 5 homers in Petco and 6 homers in the Oakland Coliseum… Speaking of freak occurrences, Lincecum would’ve sent those juiced balls back.

Jeff Francoeur – 4-for-6, 4 RBIs and his 2nd homer in the last three games.  With Hamilton out and Vlad resting his Ron Kovic knees, I’d see if Frenchy can hit a few more freedom flies.

Chris Perez – The mulleted closer was out Sunday as his wife was giving birth.  Here’s a Razzball exclusive look at the baby boy.

Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitchers, Week 26

September 26, 2010 By: Smokey Category: Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitchers 24 Comments →

The last hurrah, it’s been a long, strange trip. Insert your own cliché. The last week of fake baseball is here and if you’re still fighting for a championship, now is not the time to get cute. Because it will cost you. Play who is hot, that’s the best advice I can give, guys are getting shut down left and right. Take all your allegiances to high draft picks swallow your pride and start guys who generally wouldn’t be playing. For pitching, however, the last week is kinda sketchy, as I wouldn’t trust too many 2 start guys that are going this week, so I’ll give you the abridged version of who I would go with. It’s been a great year and I hope that I have helped or, if you’re in a league with me, hurt your chances at winning. For the last time in 2010, here are the 2 start pitchers for fantasy baseball that will be semi useful, good luck.

Dallas Braden (@Ana vs. Haren) (@Sea vs. Hernandez)
He can’t wait for the season to be over so he can go on the professional bridge tour with his grandma. He is a guy who will get more love than he is worth next year. Sneaky good ERA, not enough Ks. 1-2 on the year vs. ANA, 1-1 vs. Sea.

Carlos Carrasco (Det vs. Galarraga) (@ChW vs. Jackson)
Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any start. Quickly rising up the ‘Shhh Chart’ for next year. ERA at home is halved, only 2 starts though. Great makeup of pitches and will only be 24 next year. Sounds good to me, where does that line start for next year?

Tim Stauffer (ChC vs. Zambrano) @SF vs. Cain)
Any SD pitcher looks awesome right now. They are in pennant race and all pitch to miniscule numbers. Only 3 start sample but has allowed 5 ER in 17 innings. Will steal you 5K’s a start. Game vs. SF may be a all hands on deck affair for the Fathers so keep that in mind.

Brad Bergesen (@TB vs. Davis) (Det vs. Galarraga)
I was high on him in March. Took about 6 months to figure it out. Last 5 starts 3-1 1.54 ERA, holy hell. That includes 2 starts versus the Sawx and one versus the Yanks. No K’s, will get slapped around hit-wise.

Nick Blackburn (@KC vs. O’Sullivan) (Tor vs. Rzepczynski)
Sounds like an Air force pilot or a spokesman for skin cream. Anywho, .213 BAA, 1.81 ERA since late-August. Minny is coasting into the playoffs. Side note is Morneau taking forever to come back from a concussion or what?

Alex Sanabia (@Atl vs. Minor) (Pit vs. Morton)
On here as my favorite ‘crappy pitcher good matchup’ for this week. ATL is mailing it in ala St. Louis, and well Pitt is Pitt. 2.59 ERA last 3 starts. Caveat:  2 bad defeats against ATL.

The Septemberists Are Singing O Valencia!

September 24, 2010 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell 209 Comments →

Doesn’t Danny Valencia sound like a bad actor’s stage name?  “For my audition, I’m going to do the scene ‘Eating the Old 96er’ from The Great Outdoors.”  Okay, try not to choke.  (Quick side note:  My aunt used to date Danny Aiello.  But not Danny Aiello, the actor.  A different Danny Aiello.  It was like McDowell’s vs. McDonald’s.  “They got the Golden Arches, mine is the Golden Arcs.”  I’d tell people, “Yeah, I was at dinner with Danny Aiello.”  My friends would be, “Danny Aiello?!”  “Yeah, Danny Aiello!”  Then my friends would make excuses to come over and be like, “That’s not Danny Aiello!”  And I’d be like, “That’s Danny Aiello!”  Then one day we were at a restaurant and who walks in but the real Danny Aiello.  It was like when Lorraine attempts to escape the house, but encounters her 2015 counterpart and faints.)  So Valencia is hitting over .400 at home, where the Twins are the final week.  Yes, over .400.  He also has 3 homers in the last week.  Here’s hoping he can make the magic last for more than one night or week.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Melvin Mora – This schmohawk is usually Melvin Van Feebles, but he’s hitting well in the last week and there’s no guarantee Mini-Mini Donkey will be inserted right back into the lineup.

Mike Aviles – It must be the end of the season when I’m heavily promoting a guy who’s barely above Crapolanco’s production.

Chris Johnson – As they say at bachelorette parties, this Johnson’s hot.

Wilson Betemit – Geez, how many corner infidels can be hot in the final week?  I’ll answer that right after I dump Sandoval and his Shirley Hemphill-lookalike body.

Chris Carter – This isn’t a buy for this year, but, if you’re in a keeper, I’d take a flier on Carter just to see how things play out this winter.

Danny Espinosa – Blah blah blah Espinosa!  Blah blah blah Buy!  Blah blah blah Dracula!

Randy Wolf – He appeared in the borderline starters post for last week.  Before that, he went out with your Moms and did her wrong.  So I don’t fully trust him, but he’s been lights out.

Edwin Jackson – Really only listed here because he gets 2 starts in the final week and the final one is vs. the Indians and their $24 of trinkets.

Carlos Zambrano – Has been great since returning to the rotation and also gets 2 starts in the final week.  Last start is vs. the Astros.  Hello, sexy, what’s your name?

Nick Blackburn – Just went over my Nick Blackburn fantasy.  It’s a fascinating read, I count only three typos.  Or is that, tipe-ohs?  Anyhoo!  Blackburn’s set for two starts next week, but I imagine the 2nd start will be shortened or skipped since the ‘offs.

Tim Stauffer – This is Grey, the Not-Really-Greek’s Double Yahtzee pick of the week!  Two starts, one at home, one in San Fran.

Alex Sanabia – I actually picked him up in one league for his two starts, but I’m not excited about it.  How’s that for selling a Buy?!

Carlos Carrasco – And last of the two start pitchers for next week that have a legit chance of appearing on any of my teams.  And, yes, Carrasco sounds like a luchador.

David Murphy – If you haven’t picked up Murphy yet, you’re probably not paying attention anyway.  It’s a shame, you could’ve been a contender.

Michael Morse – Something tells me he won’t be hot by next Tuesday, but there’s only, like, ten more days of season left, so what the eff in the coolie hole.

Will Venable – I think I’ve mentioned this before, but Venable is the 2nd fastest guy in the majors after Crawford, according to Bill James’ Speed Score.  Tied with Brett Gardner and ahead of Michael Bourn, Reyes, Stubbs, Victorino…  Don’t just stare, say something!  Okay, maybe I’m the only one that finds that interesting.

Jarrod Dyson – He’s fast.  That’s all I got.  I’m not sure he’ll play and he’ll never hit for power.  He’s like a non-French Juan Pierre.

Clay Hensley – SAGNOF!

Chris Sale – See Hensley, Clay.  Or 1/8th of an inch above.

Craig Breslow – Michael Wuertz’ thumb is huertz and Ziegler throws like a girl.

Phil Coke – In a blind taste test, 4 out of 5 SAGNOF’ers choose Ryan Pepsi, but Coke is it.

Juan Gutierrez – I like Kirk Gibson.  He was a fist pumping fool before Vinny.  Though I think making Gutierrez the closer was reason enough for him to never manage another game, let alone get signed on for next year, but mine is not to reason why.

SELL

Ted Lilly – I’m actually a fan of Lilly, but he has two starts left and his next start is in Coors.  Blech.

Andrew Bailey – See Jose Valverde.

Jose Valverde – See Andrew Bailey.

Joe Mauer – Unless your league counts the playoffs, you need someone else.

Zack Greinke – Kinda depends on your shituation but I dropped Greinke in the one league I have him for a two start pitcher.  And it felt great!  Sayonora, schmohawk!

Any Pitcher That Has Pitched His Last Start – Maximize your lineup spots with middle relievers for vulture wins or other starters.  It’s that time, friends.  Good luck!

That’s A Bummerman

September 24, 2010 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 51 Comments →

Ryan Zimmerman has a strained intercostal, which runs along the ocean from Miami to Georgia (I believe). Tough break for those making the drive up the coast and for Zimmerman’s owners. It sounds like he’s donezo. The Nats will have Bowden’s old Segway, that was in storage, man 3rd for the rest of the season. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Pablo Sandoval – The Giants moved Sandoval to the bench. They then moved 700 lbs. of sandbags to the other side to keep it balanced.

Juan Uribe – 2-for-4, 6 RBIs and 2 homers. Sandoval cheered the loudest, smacking his belly like Kamala.

Freddy Sanchez – 4-for-5, as he filled in for Sandoval and got more hits than he did in like the last two months.

Madison Bumgarner – 7 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 9 Ks. Has been coasting in September and gets the Diamondbacks in his last start.

Ryan Dempster – 1 2/3 IP, 9 ER. Bad time to bring home a grenade.

Ian Kennedy – Left with an undisclosed reason. If he shows up in 9 months with a kid, we’re gonna know what happened.

Kelly Johnson – Grabbed a slam & legs off the buffet line as Stephen Drew stayed hot under a chafing dish and added another homer.

CC Sabathia – 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER. Bad day for the zaftig.

Prince Fielder – Hit his 31st homer. *clears throat* Are you implying I’m skinny? Sorry, Prince.

Dallas Braden – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit. Phew, I’m not sure I could have handled another session of him getting googly-eyed with his grandmother.

Mike Aviles – Hit another homer. You’re waiting too long if you haven’t picked him up yet.

Felix Hernandez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks and a loss. F-Her is the sole reason why I’m going to finish near first in multiple leagues but probably won’t win because of, uh, wins, or lack thereof. From ESPN, “In Hernandez’s 12 losses, the Mariners have scored seven runs while Hernandez has been the pitcher of record, including no runs in his last five losses. He’s on pace to become the 12th AL pitcher since 1920 to pitch more than 200 innings and have an ERA less than 2.40 but fewer than 16 wins.” I wanna kill someone. Primarily, a Mariners hitter.

Shawn Hill – 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks. Because I’m a sucker for Shawn Hill for some unknown reason like your girl’s a sucker for Meg Ryan, I’ll probably be watching Hill closely in Spring Training next year. Right now, too much risk to give him a whirl.

Jose Bautista – Hit his 50th homer. Just as I predicted…for, um, Mark McGwire in 1999. Remember those 50 homers from Bautista next time someone says “Hitters are much more predictable than pitchers.” Actually, I say that.

Daniel Descalso – 4-for-5 with a steal. The Cardinals prospect now has 4 RBIs in two games with 5 hits in 9 ABs. Hot dog, we got a wiener! Descalso looks like a poor man’s Pedroia, which is barely rosterable unless he’s hot. You might catch lightning in a bottle for the short term. But ocekávání, which is me putting expectations in Czech.

Albert Pujols – Hit his 40th and 41st homers yesterday. This guy who was drafted one pick after Alfredo Amezaga isn’t doing too bad.

Danny Espinosa – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs and his 2nd homer in the last two games. He’ll be discussed in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell. It’ll go something like this, “Blah blah blah Espinosa! blah blah blah Buy! blah blah blah Dracula!”

Michael Morse – 2-for-3, 3 RBIs and now has 3 homers this week with two homers in as many games. I’ve now reached my touting Michael Morse quota for the year. One more and I’ll have to pay a nickel to Willingham for the copyrighted materials Morse is using.

Andrew Bailey – Done for the year. Well, dur. Of course, he was going to see Dr. Freeze. I grabbed Breslow where I could, in the non-perverse way.

Yadier Molina – Shut down for the year. Luckily, we still have Alfred Molina.

Fred Lewis – Out for the year with his 5th bunion-related injury in the last two years. Proof that you can dodge the draft if you move to Canada but you can’t dodge swollen bursal sacs on the mesophalangeal joint.