Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Braves Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Braves Journal.

1) The Braves expected 1st baseman is Troy Glaus, but I think they might have signed him to make Prado look fast and to make Chipper look resilient to injury.  Do you think Glaus can make it through the season?  If so, what kind of numbers can we expect from him?

Obviously he can, but I wouldn’t expect him to avoid the IR the whole time.  I don’t think that the Braves do either, hence the signing of Eric Hinske.  I think Glaus will play about 125 games and hit 25-30 homers, and probably bat about .250 but with enough walks to get him into the .350 OBP range.

2) I’m going on two years of excitement for Jason Heyward.  Do we finally see him this year?  If so, when and what kind of predictions do you see for him?

Given the current Braves outfield, which has basically one player (Nate McLouth) who’s really a major league regular, plus one good part-timer (Diaz) and one born bench player (the Melkysaurus), it would be stunning if Heyward didn’t play at some point.  Right now, it’s 50-50 he starts the season in the majors.  It could change if the Braves sign Johnny Damon.

If Heyward plays, I wouldn’t be too optimistic, as he’s still very young.  I’d say .270/.330/.420.

3) Between the majors and minors, Tommy Hanson threw 194 innings last year after throwing 138 IP in 2008.  Does that innings bump worry you?  Can he stay healthy in 2010?

Everything worries me.  The jump isn’t quite as big as the stats indicate since he pitched in the AFL in 2008.  I think he’ll stay mostly healthy, but probably go through a dead-arm period.

4)  Tim Hudson will throw 175 innings of sub-3.50 ERA ball in 2010.  True or false and why.

If I had to guess, yes on the former, no on the latter.  I think he’ll have two or three spectacularly awful starts that will skew his ERA. He was throwing at a higher velocity last year, but with occasional wildness, and I doubt it’s all out of his system yet.

5)  With Chipper, Yunel and now Melky, the Braves have some of the best first names in baseball. McLouth, McCann and Dye-as are decent enough last names.  Derek Lowe, Billy Wagner and Tommy Hanson work when you say the whole name.  But what do we do with Jair Jurrjens?  I call him Jar-Jar, but meesa tinks that’s dated.  There’s got to be a better nickname.  Right?

I’ve never gotten a handle on his name either.  The best I can come up with is something involving Jurgens shampoo (I have a friend who calls him Jurgens).

It’s a pretty funny game this fantasy baseball.  And, obviously, since I’m saying it’s funny, it’s not at all funny what I’m about to say.  No matter how heralded a prospect is, no matter how young they still are, if they have a bad season, people abandon them.  David Price is currently being drafted around the 170 mark in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  This is the pot luck section of every draft.  This is the point when people throw out game plans and are just looking for the best available pitcher.  This is the point when someone invariably walks into your room while you’re drafting and you lose it.  Her, “Honey, can we eat dinner soon?”  You, “Dinner?  Dinner?!  I’m choosing between Randy Wolf and David Price and you’re asking me about dinner?  How about I fix the economy while I’m at it?!”  And now you’ve drafted Randy Wolf and you’re getting a divorce.  Hopefully you’re not picking a divorce attorney while doing your midseason draft.  “Retainer?  Retainer?!  I’m deciding between Felipe Lopez and Scott Sizemore!”  There’s little to be excited about when looking at Price’s 2009.  Ks went down, walks went up, he wasn’t unlucky… He basically threw gas and let out a burp.  So what will Price’s 2010 look like?  Is he a possible 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper?

Price has tremendous stuff that he showed in college, the minors and briefly in the majors in 2008.  Intro Paragraph mentioned how Price’s walks went up and Ks went down in 2009.  Mr. Paragraph, if that’s his real name, wasn’t telling you the whole story.  Price’s K’s went down in the 2nd half of the season, but his walks went way down, as well.  Captain Stubing once described this as “getting your sea legs.”  Price was learning how to pitch in the major leagues last year.  2010 should be the year he continues his progress.  Walks should stay down and strikeouts should start to come around again.  The real breakout might not come until 2011.  Nevertheless, the breakout will come.  In 2010, we should expect a solid third fantasy starter-type season.  Ups and downs, culminating in a line of 12-9/3.75/1.30/155.  The reason why I’d go for him over someone like, say, Oswalt is the upside.  The reason I’d go for Oswalt over Price is the downside.  There’s more risk with Price.  You need to evaluate your pitching staff in-draft to see if you can handle risk.  The only reason why I’m not head over flippin’ heels for Price while caps-locking my superlatives is because of his division.  I’d prefer a late pitcher in the NL, but risk and division aside, I like Price and he is a solid sleeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.

Since I don’t draft starters early, the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball have a lot of names that I would draft.  Will I try for a starter from the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball rankings?  Yeah, definitely, but things don’t always work out the way you envision.  To anchor my staff, I could conceivably have two starters from these top 40 starters and, as you’ll see, I don’t even like all 20 of these starters.   All the other 2010 fantasy baseball rankings can be found there.  Also, as with other rankings, tiers and my projections are mentioned.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

21. Wandy Rodriguez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Oswalt.  I call this tier, “I’m on board.”  Other than a slightly high percentage of men left on base, Wandy’s 2009 looks repeatable.  So here’s what he did in 2009:  3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 193 Ks in 205 2/3 innings.  The Wandwagon rides again!  2010 Projections:  13-11/3.55/1.27/190

22. Chad Billingsley – Since Billingsley’s 2009 was so opposite of everything I expected, I’m going to speak in the inverse for him.  Last year, Bills had one of those dream seasons.  He came to camp in great shape.  Obviously cutting back on Ring Dings went a long way, but the key was his ice skating regimen.  As he stayed healthy all year, he dominated from start to finish.  K-rate crept up, walks went down and homers?  He didn’t give any up.  In 2010, the negation of the negation.  2010 Projections:  16-8/3.50/1.32/190

23. Matt Garza – Not crazy about the AL East.  It’s inevitable that you bench Garza vs. the Yankees or Sox when he pitches well and you start him when he gets hit.  You can set your watch to it.  Still Garza makes the pain of match ups bearable.  Last year, he increased his 2008 K-rate from 6.24 to 8.38.  Looking at his 9+ K/9 minor league league rate makes me think Garza, at the age of 25, finally found himself in the majors.  He should repeat last year’s numbers or take a step forward.  Here’s to forward movement… 2010 Projections:  12-9/3.80/1.24/200

24. Jered Weaver – What you see is what you get with Weaver.  An above average pitcher, but nowhere near the stud he looked like when he was first called up.  2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.22/180

25. Scott Baker – Baker came out of gates with a sore shoulder that sidelined him for one official start in April.  Then he went on a two month string of terrible starts that made his owners wish he went on the 60-day DL.  His post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.28, his ERA in 2008 was 3.45.  I believe those numbers vs. the ones in the 1st half of 2009.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.65/1.17/170

26. David Price – Here’s a detailed David Price fantasy breakdown.  2o10 Projections:  12-9/3.75/1.30/155

27. Ryan Dempster – Dempster was so downright awful as a closer that it took me two years before I was willing to believe he’s a mid-3 ERA starter.  And even now I feel the same way I felt with Cliff Lee in the top 20 starters.  I just know when I endorse Dempster, he’s going to employ his parachute as he watches me crash to the ground.  2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170

28. Roy Oswalt – The good news for 2009 is his ERA was higher than it should’ve been for how he pitched.  The bad news is it shouldn’t have been that much lower.  The days of him being an ace are way behind him, but as a quality number two to three man on your staff you can do worse.  2010 Projections:  12-6/3.65/1.22/150

29. Tommy Hanson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Scherzer.  I call this tier, “Guys I’m avoiding that I’m not entirely thrilled about avoiding.”  Hanson’s innings bump was just too much for my high blood pressure.  I don’t think he’s going to be terrible this year.  I picture he’ll have a year similar to Billingsley’s 2009.  A few solid months and a few mediocre months, leading to an overall 3.75 ERA.  There’s way too many starters to choose from for me to buy into a guy I’m a little weary of.  Even if I’m right and he’s not good in 2010, he will be fine in 2011.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175

30. Javier Vazquez – As I wrote when he was traded, I originally had Vazquez ranked in the top 20 starters.  For s’s and g’s, here’s what I wrote when I had him ranked in the top 20. “For all starters in the major leagues, he had the lowest percentage of contact made on all pitches at 73.3%.  (For reference, Lincecum had 75%.)  For contact made from strikes, Vazquez ranked fourth.  When hitters aren’t making contact, you’re doing something well.  When you do that and throw as many strikes as Vazquez (238:44 K:BB), you’re doing something really³ well.”  Here’s what I wrote after he was traded.  2010 Projections:  15-10/4.15/1.22/200

31. Max Scherzer – His ranking is sorta like my ranking of Gallardo.  If I’m wrong, then I’m missing out on a guy that I could regret not owning because of all of his Ks.  Alas, I’m avoiding him because of his innings jump from ’08 to ’09 and his move to the Tigers won’t help his value.  It’s a termite-infested limb I’m out on avoiding him, but here I am.  2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165

32. Matt Cain – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Burnett.  I call this tier, “They will regress, but still ownable. Plus, A.J. Burnett.”  2007 is in Cain’s skill set.  2009 is not.  Or I should say it’s not without a lot of luck.  For all major league starters outside of Happ (and we’ll get to him in the top 60), Cain left the most men on base.  He also had a lower BABIP than Happ, if only by percentage points.  I say 2007 is in his skill set because that year he had a 3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 163 Ks.  That’s ownable, just not a 2.89 ERA.  2010 Projections:  15-10/3.65/1.25/165

33. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATED:  Jar-Jar moved to the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.

34. A.J. Burnett – Took two years of 30+ starts for me to accept Burnett as reliable. …Okay, I still don’t fully trust him, but it’s hard to find a 200 strikeout pitcher this late in the game.  Would I team Burnett with an upside two or three starter, like, say, Price?  No, I wouldn’t.  But I could see teaming him with an Oswalt-type.  Which gives me an idea, maybe I’ll do a post about pairings.  Not like what wine goes with branzino.  Like which starter goes with which starter.  2010 Projections:  16-9/4.05/1.35/200

35. James Shields – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Zambrano.  I call this tier, “Veterans that I’m done with.”  I just can’t take Shields’s shizz anymore.  Pitches well vs. the tough teams, gets his stank handed to him by the Royals, can’t pitch in away games… You’ve beaten me, Shields.  You win.  2010 Projections:  13-8/4.00/1.28/160

36. John Lackey – When he signed with Bahston, I went over Lackey for 2010 fantasy.  2010 Projections:  13-9/3.95/1.29/130

37. Brandon Webb – Hey, he’s all better!  That’s nice, I’m not owning him.  Pitching is already risky.  Not worth further risk.  2010 Projections:  12-7/3.60/1.28/165

38. Carlos Zambrano – Big Z is done-zo.  The Chicago chapter of the World Health Organization’s Freedom of Accuracy and Truth symposium should counsel children on what happens when you abuse an out of shape pitcher’s arm for five years.  In elementary school classrooms, posters can be hung of Carlos Zambrano, brought to you by WHO’s F.A.T.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.95/1.35/140

39. Kevin Slowey – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 60 starters post.  I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.”  There’s a good chance I’m going to own at least one of these guys on all of my teams.  Slowey’s a strikeout pitcher that doesn’t walk anyone.  You shouldn’t need much else to get excited.  (BTW, everyone in this tier’s projections are optimistic, but whatevs.  You’ll afford me my dreams, right?)  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.60/1.17/165

40. Johnny Cueto – The 2nd half ERA of 5.81 was dreadful.  He had a two month ERA (July and August) of 8.18.  Was not a good time to be a Cueto owner.  His FIP was 4.69 on the year.  So what am I seeing in this schmohawk?  He suffered from a sore hip, which threw his mechanics out of control in the middle of the season.  In the minors, Cueto was a strikeout pitcher with solid control.  Here’s to him finding his happy place in the majors.  2010 Projections:  13-9/3.80/1.30/160

I’m beginning to think with Billy Beane that the emperor’s wearing no clothes.  Moneyball is still a great book, Joe Morgan is still a moron and Chad Bradford is still an underhander.  Those things are true.  But the A’s were 4th in the Majors last year in steals — what happened to steals cost outs?  Not to mention, Beane’s team hasn’t been competitive in three seasons.  Was Moneyball just a symptom of the era?  Was it simply fortuitous that Beane’s coronation came during the era of the three run homer?  Was Moneyball a by-product of steroids?  Would Moneyball be written today?  Hard to imagine Michael Lewis sitting down with a GM of a sub-.500 club and polishing his pedestal, right?  And none of this has to do with fantasy baseball or Ben Sheets.  (I wrote the preceding the other day, then right before I posted this I saw Sky Andrecheck wrote an SI piece in the similar ballpark.  Literally.)

If Sheets can stay healthy, he’s liable to return more than his ADP.  That “if” is ginormous.  That “if” sits next to you on a plane and you can’t put down the armrest.  You show up at a party of 500 Tongans and that “if” is the second biggest thing in the room after the buffet table.  You hook up with that “if” at a bar and people will think you’re beer goggling.  Okay, I think I made my point.  The other issue with Sheets is his falling K-rate.  Back in 2005, if Sheets was healthy, he was a Cy Young-type performer.  Regularly posting 200+ Ks and next to no walks. (Sounds a bit like Nolasco now.)  But lately Sheets hasn’t come near these numbers when healthy.  In 2007, he started 24 games and had a K-rate of 6.75.  That would’ve put him on par with Jason Hammel last year.  He also gained a walk per nine on his walk rate.  In 2008, Sheets had a 7.17 K/9.  Better, but that would’ve had him on par with Zito.  The days of the 9+ K/9 and sub-3 ERA are over.  He’s only a number 3 fantasy starter if he can start 30 games.  It’s okay, but not worth the ulcer when considering his health.  Anyway, here’s some more deals and signings since the last time we checked in and what they mean for fantasy baseball:

Octavio Dotel – Signed on to be the Pirates closer.  Bummer.  Was hoping to see Joel Hanrahanananan and Brendan Donnelly battle it out.  Would’ve been like a match between Steve Lombardi and Salvatore Bellomo.  I will own Dotel on multiple teams.  He’s a K machine (regularly 10+ K/9) and he has no competition even if he falters. With The Dread Pirate, Robot Jones and Dotel, I’m going to be watching a lot of Pirate games this year.  Pray for me.

Xavier Nady – Signed with the Cubs. What a long strange trip it’s been for Nady. Goes from Tommy John surgery to being a fourth outfielder that can’t catch a break to putting up a career year to having his second Tommy John surgery and returning to fourth outfielder duty.  Nady will need Soriano to hop onto the DL to have any real value.

Miguel Tejada – Signs with the Orioles.  In the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball, I gave Tejada projections of 70/15/85/.295/4.  In Houston, he hit second and fifth, helping balance his Runs and RBIs.  Now he’ll probably bat primarily fifth.  So if you want to argue Tejada’s Runs will decrease slightly and his RBIs will go up a tick, go for it.  But remember you’re arguing about an average at best, 35 year old shortstop.

Jon Garland – Signs with the Padres, or as I like to call them, The Team With Five Number Five Starters.  Garland can be a solid HodgePadre during the season.  But it’s hard to draft a HodgePadre, especially one with no Ks.  First long road trip and you wanna drop him.  I would slot him in as my 5th starter in NL-Only leagues.

Rick Ankiel – Signs with the peasant Royals.  For s’s and g’s, I went to look at Baseball-Reference’s most comparable players to Ankiel. Came back with Pedro Feliz.  Sounds about right.  Both are good for 20 homers and a .250 average.  Feliz at least has position eligibility going for him in fantasy baseball.  Ankiel’s a good story (minus that HGH story), but he’s not worth much outside of AL-Only leagues.

Randy Winn – Signed with the Yanks.  This signing for fantasy baseball has all the makings of a headache for yours truly.  No one wants to own Winn, but now that he’s on the Yanks he’ll be at the top of waiver wires all year, so I’m going to field six months of “Hey, Grey, Winn’s available, should I pick him up?”  On the bright side for schadenfreude purposes, this is a bigger headache for Brett Gardner.  As Nelson would say, “Ha-HA!”

Jim Thome – Signs with the Twins.  It’s his 3rd AL Central team.  Dayton Moore must be pissed he spent all his milk money on Podsednik and Ankiel.  Twin fans have been waiting for another Harmon Killebrew for 30 years.  In Thome, they found one, albeit closer to Killebrew today vs. during his career.  Thome could hit 30 homers with a full season of DH ABs, but the Twins have Mauer, Kubel and Cuddyer that could also take some ABs away.  I’d conservatively project Thome for 60/22/75/.240.

Finished up the hitters for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings and now we’re turning our eye patch to the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Ain’t life grand?  I supposed, but pimpin’ still ain’t easy, despite strides made by Three 6 Mafia and Big Daddy Kane.  Before we get into the top 20 starters, I want to point out one thing about my projections.  Wins and losses are total shots in the dark.  Did I take into consideration how well their respective teams would do?  Really doe.  Still doesn’t matter.  As with other rankings, where I see tiers starting and ending is mentioned and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Tim Lincecum – Went over Lincecum’s projections in the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.

2. Felix Hernandez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Greinke.  I call this tier, “F-Her vs. Greinke.”  I feel like F-Her doesn’t get his due.  I know he must be thrilled to finally get that acknowledgment from a fantasy baseball blog.  Fire your PR firm!  Imagine a 23-year-old pitcher in New York throwing 238 2/3 innings with a 2.49 ERA and 217 Ks.  Joba’s Mom opens a crystal meth lab in the bathroom of a Denny’s and it makes more news than F-Her.  Even in my blurb for F-Her I’m talking about Joba.  Guy gets no respect.  At least I didn’t talk about Greinke.  Oh, wait… 2010 Projections:  18-6/3.00/1.10/220

3. Zach Greinke – The only reason why Greinke is going before F-Her in drafts is because of hype.  Just something about someone reaching their potential that drives people crazy.  Greinke had an exceptional year in 2009.  No argument from me.  I before E except in Greinke, I know.  I just think F-Her’s a tad safer.  Maybe it’s the four straight years of 190+ innings from F-Her… Maybe it’s the jump in K-rate for Greinke and the more gradual increase for F-Her… Maybe it’s Greinke’s literal feel good story…. Maybe I’m just a cynic to hype… In the end, it’s not like I ranked Greinke 20th.  2010 Projections:  14-5/3.05/1.10/225

4. Roy Halladay – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Johan.  I call this tier, “Don’t hate them because they’ve done it many times before.”  Went over my Halladay fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  17-8/3.02/1.14/185

5. CC Sabathia – Since I pitted Greinke vs. F-Her, let’s look at Sabathia vs. Johan.  Johan’s K-rate has been falling.  It was still 7.88 and slightly above CC at 7.71.  Johan’s walks went up last year:  2.48 BB/9.  Sabathia’s was still higher at 2.62.  Johan pitches in Metco, whereas CC’s in a Little League stadium.  Johan was dealing with some arm issues, so maybe that’s why he was wilder than usual and his strikeouts have been declining.  Yeah, maybe, but Johan was dealing with some arm issues so he’s below CC.  2010 Projections:  20-10/3.45/1.17/200

6. Johan Santana – I think reports of Johan’s doneness have been prematurely reported.  Will he give you 250 Ks and a 2.50?  Nah, those days are in the rear view, but 200 Ks and a 3.00 ERA seems completely doable.  2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200

7. Justin Verlander – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Wainwright.  I call this tier, “These guys have a legitimate chance of being on my team.”  I don’t draft starters high, but I am a whore for Ks.  They’re sorta like homers for me with hitters.  A homer gets you a Run, a RBI and boosts your average.  While a K doesn’t directly get you a Win, it does help ERA and WHIP.  It’s also one of the few things the pitcher controls.  Thanks to a fastball that averaged 96 MPH, Verlander had 269 Ks last year.  For starters last year, he ranked 7th for getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone.  If he can somehow avoid the terrible April he’s had two years in a row, he could be in for a sub-3 ERA. 2010 Projections:  17-11/3.25/1.20/230

8. Dan Haren – Haren is one of the most reliable pitchers.  Around a 3.20 ERA — check!  Around 200 Ks — check!  Terrible in the 2nd half — alas!  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200

9. Jon Lester – Pitchers usually breakout in their third year starting.  Worked last year for Lester and I don’t see it as a fluke.  Will his K-rate continue to climb?  Probably not.  Is it a tough division?  Sorta.  Whole lot easier not facing the Sawx.  Last year, his FIP was 3.15.   He ranked behind only Lincecum and Verlander for K/9.  Could be Lincecum, Verlander and Lester at the top of the rankings next year.  2010 Projections:  17-7/3.35/1.20/215

10. Adam Wainwright – As with other rankings posts, there’s always a few that legitimately stump me.  I move them up and down and eventually settle on a place.  I don’t tell you this just so you can peer behind the curtain and see I’m not wearing pants.  I tell you this so you know I’m more iffy on certain players.  If they were to bomb, I wouldn’t be completely surprised.  So Wainwright was great last year, most signs point to him being able to repeat, but there’s a few red flags.  A Flag)  His innings jump.  He is older than the age when pitchers are usually flagged for that, but still.  B Flag) He relies heavily on breaking pitches.  Either he doesn’t trust his fastball or Yadier’s got carpal tunnel and can’t hold down one finger.  C Flag)  Whoever heard of a C Flag.  There’s no such thing.  2010 Projections:   16-8/3.30/1.18/190

11. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Kershaw.  I call this tier, “If I don’t get a pitcher from the previous tier, I’ll need someone from this tier.”  Sure, Hamels was full on crizzap last year.  Well, Happy New Year!  Hamels led all starters with least amount of contact made on pitches inside the strike zone.  That’s stuff.  He’s on a team that can give him a shot for 18-20 Wins, he can reach 190 Ks and a mid to low-3 ERA.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.45/1.15/185

12. Josh Johnson – Tons of Ks, great ERA, insane FIP.  Yes!  Previous elbow problems combined with a huge innings bump, his 2.74 ERA pre-All-Star Break vs. his 4.00 ERA post-All-Star Break, somewhat lucky HR/FB.  This fish looks so damn tasty, but he might be tainted with mercury.  I don’t think he’s a slam dunk, but I’m willing to take the risk for the reward.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.35/1.22/175

13. Cliff Lee – After Lee’s Cy Young win, I remained a non-believer.  After his 2009 year, I’ve seen the light.  I’m done fighting the man.  Lee’s a top starter.  And I just know that now that I’m in bed with him, I’m going to wake up with a horse’s head.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.40/1.22/160

14. Ubaldo Jimenez – From May to October, Ubaldo’s ERA was 3.08.  And he has the most baldass name.  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.27/200

15. Ricky Nolasco – In 185 innings, Nolasco rang up 195 Ks and only gave up 44 walks.  His K/BB rate ranked fifth in the majors just behind Greinke, Vazquez, Haren and Halladay.  He ranked eighth for the times he was able to get a batter to swing outside of the strike zone, just below Verlander.  He also had a 5.06 ERA last year.   This was due to bad luck.  The ERA will come down.  This is a fantasy baseball trust exercise.  Fall into Nolasco’s arms, he’ll catch you.  2010 Projections:  15-7/3.55/1.20/200

16. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter always seems to have stretches where he’ll throw a couple of 6 inning games and give up 8 runs in each, which is a dagger to the testicles.  But he’s consistently near 200 Ks, has a team that gives him wins and a 3.63 FIP or under for three years straight.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.70/1.22/195

17. Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw is not the prototypical Grey crush.  He walks a lot of hitters and has a hard time getting out of the 6 inning.  A 21 year old who just had a 3.08 FIP and a 9.74 K/9 makes up for a whole lot of walks and short outings.  End of last year, I furthered my Kershaw fantasy.  2010 Projections:  12-4/3.20/1.22/200

18. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Peavy.  I call this tier, “Avoid.”  I know all that jazz about Duncan teaching his starters to pitch to contact.  Well, here’s a jazz riff for you.  I don’t want my fantasy starters pitching to contact when I have to pay for them with a top draft pick.  If Carp comes cheap, then sure, otherwise I think he’s too hyped, even outside The Bootheel.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.10/1.05/135

19. Yovani Gallardo – We had a good run last year, but it went on too long and wasn’t that pretty towards the end.  I could see my avoidance of Gallardo biting me in the ass because he is an extreme strikeout pitcher, which I like, but the innings jump from 2008 to 2009 raises too many questions for me.  2010 Projections:  14-9/3.85/1.32/175

20. Jake Peavy – It’s with great regret Peavy ends up in the avoid tier.  He’s just been too injured the last couple of seasons.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice and, well, you know the cliché.  And now he’s out of Petco.  Lates, Peave.  2010 Projections:  10-5/3.35/1.15/145