Fantasy Baseball Advice

Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (19) | 2008 (25) | 2007 (25) | 2006 (25) | 2005 (15) | 2004 (8)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [75 – 87] AL East
AAA: [71 – 73] Pacific Coast League
AA: [64 – 78] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 67] Florida League
A: [54 – 84] Midwest League
A(ss): [29 – 49] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [30-28] Gulf League

The Run Down
The recent trade of Roy Halladay has made this piece a bit more interesting. Clearly, the Blue Jays are in “rebuilding” mode. They definitely received good talent in return, and especially [near] major league ready talent – namely Wallace and Drabek. With Adam Lind breaking out, Aaron Hill finally performing up to expectations, Travis Snider holding his own in the majors, Shawn Marcum set to return from injury (Tommy John), as is Dustin McGowan (bum shoulder and knee), the Blue Jays may be better than expected. However, there is a rather large “IF” on each of those players. Granted, the Jays have restricted mobility in the free agent market to improve their team, but there are a few players that may make an impact in the majors in 2010. Additionally, the 2009 starting rotation saw four rookies make large contributions (Romero, Cecil, Rzepczynski, and Richmond) and one that called up mid-season (Brad Mills) to keep your eyes on. (Important to note, none of the graduating rookie pitchers increased their innings pitched by more than 30 innings.) Even with that many rookies, replacing Halladay’s presence, innings and experience is going to be extremely difficult to find. Not wanting to compare, but the Blue Jays are going to be relying on youngsters much like the Florida Marlins do in 2010.

Graduating Prospects
#1- OF – Travis Snider; #3 – P – Brett Cecil; #8 – P – Ricky Romero; #9 – P – Marc Rzepczynski; #20 – P – Scott Richmond

Arizona Fall League Players -Phoenix Desert Dogs
Pitchers – Reidier Gonzalez, #15 Robert Ray
Hitters – (C) AJ Jimenez, (2B) #10 Brad Emaus, (OF) Adam Loewen

Players of Interest
Due to the recent trade, the rankings before a player, unless otherwise noted, are the Blue Jays rankings.

Hitters
#2 (St.L) Brett Wallace | 1B/3B | AA/AAA | 22 | .293/.367/.455 | 532 AB | 26 2B | 20 HR | .162 ISO | 116:47 K:BB | .338 BABIP | 51.7 GB% | 19.6 LD% | 28.7 FB% | .9.4 IF/F
Traded again this year, Wallace’s defense is now coming into question. With Edwin Encarnacion manning third and Lyle Overbay manning first, I am not sure what the Jays plan for Wallace is going to be. Back in August, Scouting the Unknown article detailed his specifics out. Don’t be surprised to watch him play in left field (with Snider manning the other corner). Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play half a season at Triple-A first before a June call up.

#7 (PHI) Travis d’Arnaud | C | A | 20 | .255/.319/.419 | 482 AB | 38 2B | 13 HR | .164 ISO | 75:41 K:BB | .279 BABIP | .336 wOBA | 40.2 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 45.3 FB%
A fixture in the Halladay trade, d’Arnaud was the second rated catcher in the Phillies minors behind Lou Marson. D’Arnaud has a good arm, above average catching skills, a gap-power swing, and quoting Baseball America, “… could become trade fodder if he continues his offensive development [due to Marson].” Well, that’s exactly what he became. In his first full season, he played fairly well. His average is more like .275 with a normal BABIP, however, that doesn’t mean he’ll blast off next year. He’s good, just a few years away. Plus, the Jays have JP Arencibia …

#2 JP Arencibia | C | AAA | 23 | .236/.284/.444 | 466 AB | 32 2B | 21 HR | .208 ISO | 114:26 K:BB | .269 BABIP | .316 wOBA | 30.2 GB% | 17 LD% | 52.5 FB%
Arencibia was considered the catcher of the future, but with the d’Arnaud acquisition and the signing of John Buck, that may be in question. His slash line is destroyed by a low batting average on balls in play (.269), albeit he hit a ton of fly balls (52.5%). The power is legit, the strikeouts are scary and the lack of walks is more of a turn off than Joan Rivers. Playing the Pacific Coast League may have inflated his numbers a wee bit, however, expect to see him in the majors at some point in early summer 2010. Keep expectations in check, but if you need a catcher, plug him in and see what he can do. It’s worth a chance over anyone not named Mauer, McCann, or Martinez.

Brian Dopirak | 1B | AA/AAA | 25 | .316/.371/.549 | 546 AB | 42 2B | 27 HR | .232 ISO | 119:48 K:BB | .366 BABIP | 43.5 GB% | 21.1 LD% | 35.4 FB%
Not a sexy prospect by any means, Dopirak was acquired in 2008 from the Cubs where he couldn’t hit the moon if it was falling, exploded for the Jays. He was recently added to the 40-man roster, meaning no one could take him in the Rule-5 draft, which they easily could have. Not that first base is an extremely weak point for the Jays, but Overbay isn’t necessarily locked to keep his spot. Dopirak could provide some sneaky power in the Jays line-up in 2010.

Pitchers
#5 (PHI) Kyle Drabek | RHP | A+/AA | 21 | 8.5 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 158 IP | 3.19 ERA | 3.26 FIP | 1.21 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .305 BABIP | 43.6 GB% | 12 LD% | 39.4 FB%
It was either him or Dominic Brown (and possibly Happ, but don’t get me started) that the Jays could’ve received in the Halladay trade. Coming of Tommy John surgery in 2007, Drabek pitched his first full season in the minors (2008 he pitched in 54 innings). He possesses a low to mid 90′s fastball (top 95 mph), a sharp and biting curve, and a “work in progress” change-up. Due to the heavy influx of pitchers at the top end of the Jays system (Romero, Rzepczynski, Cecil, Richmond, David Purcey, Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan), Drabek wont be rushed. The earliest, June. Most likely, August/September.

Henderson Alvarez | RHP | A | 19 | 6.7 K/9 | 1.4 BB/9 | 124 1/3 IP | 3.47 ERA | 2.43 FIP | 1.13 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | .307 BABIP | 51.4 GB% | 10.4 LD% | 33.8 FB%
An extreme ground ball pitcher, Alvarez is the Jays top Venezuelan prospect. He has a low 90′s fastball that tops at 94, a slurve and an average at best change up. Considered to have a power arm, Alvarez still needs to harness some of his talent and not just “throw.” However, it seems like this year he has figured it out. Not a great strikeout pitcher, but his control is stellar. Look for him to reach Double-A in 2010 and possibly a September call up if he has no injuries.

#15(CIN) Zach Stewart | RHP | A+/AA/AAA | 22 | 8.0 K/9 | 2.7 | 105 IP | 1.89 ERA | 3.04 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | .334 BABIP | 53 GB% | 21 LD% | 20.1 FB%
A key component in the Scott Rolen trade, Stewart has a mid 90′s fastball (93-96 mph), a power slider and a “promising” change-up. His fastball has natural sink to it, laminated by his high ground-ball rate (53%). Not to many hitters put good wood on his pitches. I would imagine Stewart to start in Triple-A this year as he didn’t throw consistently at each stop (he played A+ and AA for the Reds).

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#5 David Cooper | 1B | AA | 22 | .258/.340/.389 | 473 AB | 32 2B | 10 HR | .131 ISO | 95:59 K:BB | .302 BABIP | .335 wOBA | 42.4 GB% | 17.5 LD% | 40.1 FB%
Didn’t have a great year. However, he is the projected starting first baseman by 2012 according to Baseball America. Keep an eye on him, he’s a better hitter (strikezone/plate discpline) than his numbers lead one to believe.

Johermyn Chavez | LF | A | 20 | .283/.346/.474 | 22 2B | 21 HR | .191 ISO | 10/6 SB | 133:40 K:BB | .350 BABIP | .371 wOBA | 40.4 GB% | 10.3 LD% | 49.3 FB%
The low line-drive hitting percentage (10.3%) and high strikeouts (133) lead me to believe that he won’t repeat these type of numbers again in 2010 at High-A or Double-A. He is one of the Venezuelans I was talking about earlier, and he does have the potential and talent to prove my prediction wrong.

Darin Mastroianni | CF/LF | A+/AA | 23 | .297/.398/.364 | 478 AB | 21 2B | 1 HR | .067 ISO | 70/15 SB/CS | 83:76 K:BB | .335 BABIP | 50.2 GB% | 11.1 LD% | 38 FB%
No power to speak of here. Mastroianni is all speed, and it’s a good thing he keeps the ball on the ground too. If you’re a firm believer in SAGNOF, then Mastroianni may be someone you steal on the waivers if he gets called up in 2010. But that is a big IF.

Pitchers
Tim Collins | LHP | A+/AA | 19 | 13.5 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 77 1/3 IP | 2.91 ERA | 2.34 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .337 BABIP | 40 GB% | 16.2 LD% | 36.8 FB%
He hasn’t pitched many innings (150) in the minors in the last two years, but Collins is in the mold of a reliever. He should start at Double-A again this year. If he pitches well again in 2010, he could be a sneaky sleeper in 2011.

#14 Danny Farquhar | RHP | A+/AA | 22 | 10.6 K/9 | 5.9 BB/9 | 62 2/3 IP | 1.87 ERA | 3.17 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | .277 BABIP | 51.6 GB%| 12.3 LD% | 31.6 FB%
Yet another Blue Jays pitcher who works the ground balls (51.6%). I mention Farquhar because he has a killer last name and a deadly fastball that sits between 92 and 94 mph, an average curve, and a cutter – and that is just from a three-quarter slot. He also can throw a 89 to 91 mph fastball with tons of action and a “frisbee action” slider from a below-sidearm angle. Used as a starter in college, the Jays like what they see from him as a reliever. Farquhar could become Lord Farquaad of the Jays ‘pen by 2012, and a stellar mid-to-late relief role by 2011.

In prepping for 2010 fantasy baseball draft day, I read that one wants/needs reliability at the top of the draft. Got me to thinking about which players and teams have the best records for durability. I selected any player that had 150 GP for any one season from 2006 through 2009, four years. There were 10 players who achieved ironman gold (at least 150 GP for all four years), 31 garnered silver (three years), 43 got bronze (two years), and 19 new players hit the magic number their first full year in 2009.

GOLD:

Not one 2B or 3B held together for four years.

Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez: “Thanks for the validation.”

Jeff Francoeur:  “Reminder to self.  Make sure it is productive time.”

Bobby Abreu and Derek Jeter:  “You know I was thinking he was getting old, but will the fall be that far? Maybe he slides far enough in the draft to be a value pick?”

SILVER:

8 1B and 8 SS made the top two groups.

11 OF. ONLY 11? Aren’t there a lot more of those guys? Is it their heads banging against the walls?

Finally, thought it might be interesting to take a peak at the team track records (count of 150 GP seasons over the four years, per team):

When I look at the list, I kind of think about prospects. “What is the likelihood of Jake Fox getting 150 GP  in Oakland?”

Inadvertently ran into an interesting twist. When I first ran this, it was against a database that assigned the current team to all previous years for a player, regardless of where he actually played. This artificially gave NYY a total of 22, with credit for games played on another team. The spin I put on this is, “The Yankees are buying players and building their team with the thought in mind that durability is important. They are buying players that have a track record of staying on the field.”

Maybe I should too…

The comments were shut off on the Position Eligibility for 2010 Fantasy Baseball post because that post was just listing players and their eligibility for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Now, in this here post, we get down to business.  Or bidness, if you mispronounce business.  That business is pointing out players that gain some advantage by having more eligibility than they know what to do with.  Are you going to finish the rest of that 3rd base eligibility? Multiple position eligibility is a funny thing.  Just when you think someone has no value, they unbutton the top button on their shirt and a heaving bosom of multiple position eligibility comes pouring out.  It’s the “butterface” of fantasy players.  Thanks for dinner, Ian Stewart, but I have a headache… *reveals 2nd base eligibility*  Well, you don’t have to go home just yet.  If I left someone off of this post from the position eligibility for 2010 fantasy baseball post it’s because I didn’t see any added boost in their value from having extra eligibility.  Or maybe I forgot them.  I’m half-idiot, sometimes.  Anyway, here’s some players who see a boost in their 2010 fantasy baseball value because of their multiple position eligibility:

Victor Martinez – You want him at catcher, but the added eligibility is nice if you lose a 1st baseman to an injury and need to slot in V-Mart.  Krishna knows it’s easier to find a random schmohawk catcher off waivers than a 1st baseman.

Jorge Cantu – Without the 3rd base eligibility, he wouldn’t even be drafted in most leagues.  With the eligibility, you still want to avoid him.  For those keeping score, that’s damned if you do, and damned if you do.

Chris Davis – When you’re looking to draft a player that is capable of striking out 300 times, you probably want them at a corner infidel spot, so the additional 3rd base eligibility doesn’t add much.  If you don’t play with corner infielders, you want Davis at 3rd, but with only 11 games there you may be S.O.L. in some leagues. (Damn you, ESPN.)

Ryan Garko – From the files of “Yeah, No Kidding,” he’s a whole lot more appealing as a 5th outfielder than a 1st baseman.  And even in the outfield, it’s really only in deep leagues.

Bobby Crosby – Psyche!  He has no added value anywhere, but seeing him on the position eligibility list made me realize something.  He played 54 games at 1st base and 42 at 3rd base.  Billy Beane might be like the Orson Wells of baseball GMs.  The Moneyball years is to Citizen Kane as Bobby Crosby playing 1st and 3rd base is to Orson Welles shilling for cheap wine.

Clint Barmes – 2nd base eligibility is nice, but, as the Yankee Doodles used to say, shortstop eligibility is macaroni.

Alberto Callaspo – With MI and CI eligibility, he has the coveted superfecta of eligibility.  Though, I wouldn’t say Callaspo is necessarily coveted.  Funny how that worked.

Jose Lopez – You want him at 2nd base or MI.

Ben Zobrist – Zobrist’s risk of not repeating is definitely counterbalanced by the nice eligibility.  He played 91 games at 2nd base, 70 games at outfield and 13 games at shortstop.  Hmm… No wonder he hit 27 homers and stole 17 bases, he played in 174 games.

Emilio Bonifacio – I wouldn’t own him outside of NL-Only leagues, but he does have the Pick 3 of eligibility.

Mark DeRosa – Slot him in at the corner infielder spot, grow bored and put him in your fifth outfielder spot.  Lose interest and drop him.  You know what I’m saying, you’ve been there before.

Casey McGehee – You know you’re more likely to take a chance on him at 2nd base or MI than 3rd base.  Yes, I know you better than you know yourself.

Mark Reynolds – You think you’ll be fine with him as your 1st baseman, but, by the end of 2010, you’re going to want him as your 3rd baseman.

Jhonny Peralta – He gained 3rd base eligibility this year to go along with shortstop…. yay!  He hit 11 homers in 582 at-bats.  Moving on…

Ian Stewart – I’m excited about Ian Stewart for 2010 fantasy baseball.  Looks like Mark Reynolds going into 2009.  Oh, and he’s eligible at 2nd base.

Juan Uribe – Won’t find him on a Grey Albright team out of a draft, but in single league, uh, leagues he has solid eligibility.

Michael Cuddyer – Corner infield and outfield eligibility is nice, but I’ll bet you $5 he’s the first guy you want to drop.

Adam Dunn – Probably will end up in your outfield, but the flexibility of putting Dunn in at corner is nice.  And that is the only time a sentence will ever contain flexibility and Dunn.

Nick Swisher – See Adam Dunn or 1/12th of an inch above.

Garrett Jones – Robot Jones is in the same boat as Casey McGehee.  The added eligibility makes the gamble easier to take.

Chase Headley – Maybe it’s the three whiskey sours talking, but I’m sorta excited about Headley at third base this year.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Shortstop eligibility is a nice added bonus, so we’ll excuse him for fielding his position in the shape of a swastika.

The 2010 fantasy baseball rankings are not as far away as you might think.  Right now, January Grey is throwing darts at a board to figure out where to place Edwin Jackson.  In the meantime, let’s look at the players who have multiple position eligibility for this upcoming 2010 fantasy baseball season.  This took me far longer than it probably should’ve.  Can’t someone write me a program that sorts all the players by games played at a position?  Why do I need to go through every player on every roster?  Maybe I’m just a coprocephalic (Nerdy Word of the Day!).  I did this list of multi-position eligible players because I figured it would help for your 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  I’m a giver, snitches! I only listed players that have multiple position eligibility of ten games or more played outside of their primary position. So this should cover Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, et al (not the Israeli airline).  Yes, Christmas came early this year.  (Or (C)Hanuk(k)ah came late, if that’s your thing.)  Players with multiple position eligibility are listed once alphabetically under their primary position.  Games played are listed in parentheses. I closed this to comments.  Comments for this post can be found at the position eligibility for 2010 fantasy baseball, companion piece — say that fast three times with food in your mouth.  Anyway, here’s all the players with multiple position eligibility for the 2010 fantasy baseball season and the positions they are eligible at:

CATCHERS

Chris Coste C (55), 1B (16)
Ramon Hernandez C (55), 1B (30)
Victor Martinez C (85), 1B (70)

1ST BASEMEN

Rich Aurilia 1B (22), 3B (13)
Willie Aybar 1B (31), 2B (28), 3B (18)
Jorge Cantu 1B (111), 3B (45)
Bobby Crosby 1B (54), 3B (42)
Chris Davis 1B (100), 3B (11)
Ryan Garko 1B (84), OF (12)
Ross Gload 1B (41), OF (10)
Mark Kotsay 1B (41), OF (20)
Daniel Murphy 1B (101), OF (27)
Fernando Tatis 1B (41), OF (28), 3B (27)
Ty Wigginton 1B (40), 3B (39)
Kevin Youkilis 1B (78), 3B (63)

2ND BASEMEN

Jeff Baker 2B (52), 3B (20)
Clint Barmes 2B (139), SS (16)
Ronnie Belliard 2B (60), 1B (15), 3B (12)
Andres Blanco 2B (40), SS (15)
Eric Bruntlett 2B (13), OF (10)
Alberto Callaspo 2B (146), 3B (14)
Jamey Carroll 2B (56), 3B (23)
Craig Counsell 2B (50), 3B (43), SS (27)
Mike Fontenot 2B (70), 3B (50)
Alberto Gonzalez 2B (55), SS (41)
Edgar Gonzalez 2B (15), OF (14)
Anderson Hernandez 2B (74), SS (38)
Omar Infante 2B (30), OF (16), 3B (10), SS (10)
Maicer Izturis 2B (68), SS (28)
Brent Lillibridge 2B (23), OF (12)
Jose Lopez 2B (141), 1B (16)
Jayson Nix 2B (52), SS (15), 3B (12)
Augie Ojeda 2B (35), SS (34), 3B (28)
Martin Prado 2B (63), 3B (41), 1B (28)
Nick Punto 2B (63), SS (58)
Omar Quintanilla 2B (25), SS (13), 3B (10)
Ryan Roberts 2B (57), 3B (19), OF (16)
Rusty Ryal 2B (13), 1B (10)
Skip Schumaker 2B (133), OF (54)
Matt Tolbert 2B (36), 3B (27ha)
Luis Valbuena 2B (75), SS (28)
Delwyn Young 2B (53), OF (30)
Ben Zobrist 2B (91), OF (70), SS (13)

SHORTSTOPS

Asdrubal Cabrera SS (100), 2B (28)
Juan Castro SS (28), 2B (20)
Ronnie Cedeno SS (82), 2B (13)
Alex Cora SS (56), 2B (19)
Khalil Greene SS (30), 3B (16)
Tyler Greene SS (30), 3B (11)
Brendan Harris SS (56), 3B (44), 2B (11)
Julio Lugo SS (56), 2B (30)
John McDonald SS (31), 3B (10)
Ramiro Pena SS (34), 3B (27)
Luis Rodriguez SS (34), 2B (30)
Brendan Ryan SS (105), 2B (19)
Ramon Santiago SS (69), 2B (29)
Ramon Vazquez SS (28), 2B (22), 3B (14)
Omar Vizquel SS (27), 3B (20), 2B (16)

3RD BASEMEN

Garrett Atkins 3B (78), 1B (28)
Geoff Blum 3B (102), 1B (10)
Emilio Bonifacio 3B (86), SS (20), OF (17)
Brian Buscher 3B (25), 1B (13)
Mark DeRosa 3B (108), OF (28), 1B (10)
Greg Dobbs 3B (16), OF (15)
Jerry Hairston Jr. 3B (49), SS (42), OF (41), 2B (12)
Jack Hannahan 3B (84), 1B (18)
Josh Fields 3B (49), 1B (17)
Jake Fox 3B (27), OF (26)
Adam Kennedy 3B (82), 2B (50)
Jeff Keppinger 3B (67), 2B (22), SS (11)
Mark Loretta 3B (23), 1B (17)
Casey McGehee 3B (71), 2B (22)
Jhonny Peralta 3B (104), SS (41)
Mark Reynolds 3B (130), 1B (28)
Adam Rosales 3B (57), 1B (11)
Pablo Sandoval 3B (120), 1B (26)
Ian Stewart 3B (121), 2B (21)
Mark Teahen 3B (107), OF (32)
Joe Thurston 3B (68), 2B (47)
Juan Uribe 3B (44), SS (41), 2B (38)
Chris Woodward 3B (18), 2B (11)

OUTFIELDERS

Jose Bautista OF (79), 3B (26)
Willie Bloomquist OF (84), SS (38), 2B (14)
Michael Cuddyer OF (117), 1B (34)
Adam Dunn OF (84), 1B (67)
Darin Erstad OF (28), 1B (15)
Willie Harris OF (98), 2B (19)
Chase Headley OF (114), 3B (28)
Eric Hinske OF (35), 3B (13)
Micah Hoffpauir OF (36), 1B (27)
Chris Gimenez OF (20), 1B (18)
Garrett Jones OF (53), 1B (30)
Matt LaPorta OF (39), 1B (10)
Robb Quinlan OF (23), 1B (17)
Ryan Raburn OF (70), 1B (10)
Bobby Scales OF (20), 2B (11)
Luke Scott OF (26), 1B (10)
Nick Swisher OF (134), 1B (20)
Eugenio Velez OF (51), 2B (31)

There’s very few 1st baseman I can see jumping into the top tiers for 2011, Joey Votto is one of them.  This alone is reason for him to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but there’s more. Show me the way, Grey! I shall, random italicized voice!  Last year, Votto missed games because of dizziness and a bad case of the Mondays.  With that missed time, it was only natural to see Votto fall short of his previous year’s numbers when he had 151 games.  Oh, wait.  He outperformed those numbers in 20 less games.  That’s a cause célèbre!  If “cause célèbre” meant what it sounded like.  To put it into colloquial Mandarin then back into English, “I’ve finished my meal now I want some fresh oranges.”  “Here you go!”  “Thank you!”  So let’s look at what we can expect from Votto for 2010 fantasy baseball and why he’s a keeper and someone I’m targeting in drafts.

Double his 2nd half when he went 49/14/42/.300/2 in 267 at-bats and you’d have bottom of the barrel expectations for him.  That would mean no step forward.  If Votto continues to progress, you’re looking at a guy that could easily give you 32 homers, 10 steals and a .300 average.  This is enough reason for him to be a 2010 fantasy baseball keeper, but, wait, there’s more.  If you buy into Joey Votto for 2010, I’ll also throw in a climbing walk rate and OPS for absolutely free!  Don’t want it?  Who cares, it’s free!  Before you have time to answer because I’m talking so fast, throw in a home park that makes the new Stadium Adjacent to the House That Ruth Built spacious.  Want more?  Tough noogs, it’s all I have.