Minnesota Twins 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009):
2009 (22) | 2008 (18) | 2007 (8) | 2006 (6) | 2005 (4) | 2004 (5)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams

The Run Down

The Twins traded one of the better young defensive center fielders in Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy.  For  analysis from a Twins fan’s perspective, check out what Eric from The Blog that Boredom Built had to say. On a different note, Minnesota still has to figure out what it wants to do with third base, the middle or top of their rotation, second base, and how to reshuffle their bullpen – in that order. As a Minnesota native, I am able to read the local sports writers. Aside from Joe Christiansen and LaVelle E. Neal III, the writers are mentioning how the Twins have Danny Valencia as the heir apparent at third base – a 24 year old minor league player who just reached Triple-A this past summer and hasn’t played a lick in the majors. Never mind the fact that Valencia isn’t a stud prospect, either. Additionally, the Twins don’t have any internal options to fill out the rotation. Kevin Slowey is returning from a wrist injury and they just offered arbitration to Carl Pavano. However, if there is an injury again next year, the unexpected pitching the Twins got from Brian Duensing shouldn’t be counted upon.  The Twins and Bill Smith have a lot to work this winter, like signing Mauer to a contract that rivals Singapore’s GDP.

Graduated Prospects
#4 – (RP) Jose Mijares; #11 – (SP) Jeff Manship; #16 – (SP) Brian Duensing; (RP) Bobby Keppel;

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Pitchers – Alex Burnett, Steve Hirschfeld, (#27)Mike McCardell, Spencer Steedley
Hitters – Christ Parmelee, Steve Singleton, Rene Tosoni

Players of Interest
#2 –Ben Revere | CF | 21 | A+ | .311/.372/.369 | 466 AB | 13 2B | 2 HR | .058 ISO | 45/17 SB/CS | 34:40 K:BB | .333 BABIP | 54.7 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 28.5 FB%
Scouting the Unknown broke him down well in July. The power, or gap power, never materialized after a significantly better 2008 slash line of .379/.433/.497. He still stole 45 bases after he stole 44 in 2008. His average isn’t a mirage; he should be able to sustain it. Revere is considered the fastest baserunner and best hitter for average in the Twins farm system. He’ll start 2010 in Double-A and will probably end the year with a September call-up, especially if the Twins falter down the stretch.

#5 – Danny Valencia | 3B | 24 | AA/AAA | .285/.337/.466 | 487 AB | 38 2B | 14 HR | .181 ISO | 77:39 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 50.5 GB% | 14.2 LD% | 35.1 FB%
Maybe the second coming of Ron Coomer. Only thing, Coomer didn’t produce at the majors until his late twenties. Honestly, he’ll be much better than Coomer, probably something more like a poor man’s Robin Ventura (a .267/.362/.444 career hitter in the majors) without the amazing defense. If, and that’s a big if, Valencia gets the starting gig out of spring training, his big league numbers will look, at best, what Bill James has predicted (12 HRs, .276 average in 438 ABs). He does have average to above-average defense with a strong arm. Look for him to emerge from the minor leagues around June and contribute a fantasy line of 50/10/60/.270 in 425 AB.

#28 – David Winfree | RF | 23 | AAA | .273/.317/.460 | 422 AB | 31 2B | 14 HR | .187 ISO | 88:28 K:BB | .316 BABIP | 38.9 GB% | 19.2 LD% | 41.9 FB%
He could be a sneaky sleeper in 2010 if there are any injuries in the Twins outfield. Typically he hits mid to upper teens in homers. Striking out has been a forte of his in the past, and was again this year. However, he plays good defense in right field and has a strong arm to boot. He’ll never hit for high average, but a little Matt Joyce-like production could be in his future.

#20 – Deolis Guerra | SP (RH) | 20 | A+/AA | 6.4 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 149 IP | 4.89 ERA (FIP ~3.75) | 1.34 WHIP | .320 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 17.3 LD% | 34.6 FB%
The most promising player acquired in the now infamous Johan Santana trade. His change-up is a plus pitch. However, his 2008 season was pretty much a waste as he wasn’t the same pitcher he was in 2007 with the Mets. This year he was back to his old self. He threw 62 2/3 innings at Double-A and his total was in line with the Verducci rule. I would imagine he’d make it to Triple-A in 2010 since his numbers improved from High-A to Double-A. Also, note that his FIP at Double-A was 3.52 compared to his ERA which sat at 5.17. Another plus, he did an acceptable job keeping the ball on the ground (45.7 GB%).

#19 – David Bromberg | SP (RH) | 21 | A+ | 8.7 K/9 | 3.7 BB/9 | 153 1/3 IP | 2.70 ERA (3.28 FIP) | 1.23 WHIP | .295 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 17.6 LD% | 37.3 FB %
He has an 88 to 92 MPH fastball that can reach 95 MPH, a shape curve and a solid change-up. He won’t be near the majors next year. He has pitched over 150 inning two years in a row, and has the makings to be a solid innings eater.

Honorable Mentions
#1 – Aaron Hicks | CF | 20 | A | .251/.353/.382 | 251 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | .131 ISO | 10/8 SB/CS | 55:40 K:BB | .307 BABIP | 45.3 GB% | 20.9 LD% | 33.8 FB%
The first pick in the 2008 draft for the Twins had a much better 2008 season than 2009. This year was pretty abysmal. The strikeout to walk ratio is nice, as is the line-drive rate. However, he may have to start in Single-A again next year, slowing down the extremely fast pace that was assumed he was going to make.

#14 – Chris Parmelee | 1B | 21 | A+ | .258/.359/.441 | 27 2B | 16 HR | .183 ISO | 109:65 K:BB | .313 BABIP | 35.8 GB% | 15.3 LD% | 48.3 FB%
I swear I’ve been hearing about this guy for years. Actually I have! He was drafted in 2006 and ever since then he has been the heir apparent for Morneau. Alas, this was his first year above Single-A. He continuously has a low average with mid-teen home runs.

#18 – Rene Tosoni | OF | 22 | AA | .271/.360/.454 | 425 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .183 ISO | 8/8 SB/CS | 98:45 K:BB | .321 BABIP | 45.7 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 39.8 FB%
He earned the MVP award in the Futures Game (Minor League All-Star game) this year. Baseball America says that he has a solid, yet short, swing that projects to hit for better average than he has so far in his career. His defense is above-average and has a good arm. Seems like a good fourth outfielder.

Alex Burnett | RP (RH) | 21 | A+/AA | 9 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 78 IP | 1.85 ERA | .974 WHIP | .255 BABIP | 41.7 GB% | 13.2 LD% | 41.7 FB%
He would have been in the “Players of Interests” section if he wasn’t a reliever. He pitched the majority of his innings (55) at Double-A. The extremely low batting average on balls in play definitely improved his “old-timer’s” stat line.

#9 – Carlos Gutierrez | SP (RH) | 22 | AA | 5.5 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 52 1/3 IP | 6.19 ERA (5.02 FIP) | 1.64 WHIP | .326 BABIP
2009 second pick in first round failed to live up to his hype. He still has a lot of talent and has the “best fastball in the Twins minor league farm” according to the Baseball America.

  1. Tony says:

    commenting on the last comment from yesterday about shoppach getting dealt….. I’m hoping this clears the path for carlos santana…. i was telling my dad about this kid and he was giving me crap saying “carlos santana are you sure you’re not talking about the famous musician” LOL

    Do you think he’ll break camp in the spring or it all depends on his showing during spring ball? basically is shoppach getting moved saying “carlos its your spot”?

  2. Tony says:

    ESPN- says Pedroia may move to SS, then they could get a defensive 2B or whoever (brandon phillips). Interesting.

  3. AL KOHOLIC says:

    @Tony: yeah,i seen that,i own him in a keeper league,sweet

  4. Tony says:

    @AL KOHOLIC: ya i dont know how much it bumps his value? I would say that SS is shallower than 2B with the resurgence of players at that position.

  5. AL KOHOLIC says:

    @Tony: actually having eligibility at both is the biggest plus,versatility

  6. Vic Vinegar says:

    random question:

    what do you guys think of Hamels going into 2010? in a 10-keeper dynasty i’m thinking of buying low on him and then moving Josh Johnson for Lind. thoughts? Hamels’ FIP was right there with the past few years, as was K/9, and he had a pretty high BABIP. not sure if he’s underrated per se, but his owners might be a little disappointed with his 2009.

  7. Tony says:

    @AL KOHOLIC: thats true he will probably have 2B/SS eligibility if he takes over Short. I still think he’s about a 4th-5th rounder in a 12 team league, but I’m sure being a red sox player he’ll go in the 3rd.

  8. Tony says:

    a 3B topic was up yesterday, Michael Young is another guy i’d rather pass on ARAMIS at 32 and take him later….

    A little less power and RBI’s but can be taken MUCH later in the draft…. even tho he’s coming off an injury he’s less injury prone in my eyes than Aramis, and less risky in the 7-8th round over the 3rd round!

  9. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Tony: I think it’s Marson’s spot from jump street, but Santana can definitely win the job in the spring.

    @Vic Vinegar: I’m going to own Hamels on a few teams in 2010. I expect much better from him. I do like Johnson too, but Lind for him is fair if you need a Lind type bat.

    @Tony: Young’s pretty boring at 3rd.

  10. Tony says:

    @Grey: HAHA ya i know, but he’s pretty consistent, and i’d rather have consistent, boring michael young in the 8th than Injury prone Aramis in the 3rd.

  11. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Tony: No one should be taking Aramis in the third. He’s more like a 5th to 6th rounder, and I wanted go near him either.

  12. Charlie says:

    Trade my tillman for his Carlos Santana? It’s AL only with 2 C spots, stupid but makes catchers very pricey.

  13. AL KOHOLIC says:

    @Grey: thoughts on kouzmanoff?can he improve enough to hit 280-25 hrs

  14. AL KOHOLIC says:

    wouldnt hurt him to walk a few more than 25 times either(kouz)

  15. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Charlie: I’d do that trade.

    @AL KOHOLIC: I’m actually more excited about Headley, who the Padres were playing in place of Kouz towards the end of the year. KOuz may get shipped out of SD.

  16. Stephen says:

    @Tony: I honestly don’t think Santana will get the opening day gig — gotta think long term, and there is no reason in rushing their top prospect, especially with a poor team. Think Matt Wieters-ish type rookie year if he gets called up in June.

    I also remember talking to a friend about him and laughing until I showed him Santana’s stat page. Sucks huh?

    @Tony: I saw that at MLB Trade Rumors. It would be interesting to say the least, but I am not touching him with a 10 foot pole.

  17. Tony says:

    @Grey: YEP, i dont want him in the 3rd, 5th, etc. Maybe in the 12th…. lol

    @Stephen: Kinda like Michael Bolton on OFFICE SPACE, haha.

    Pedroia isn’t interesting to me either. He was a steal in 2008 when he had his MVP #’s, he’ll never be as valuable. he’s a 15/15 80RBI .300 hitter, which is nice, but nothing extremely special. Only thing different from his 08 stats and 09 stats is 30 points in batting average? Kinda wild…. He actually walked 25 more times and struck out LESS in 2009, just batted for a lower average….

  18. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Tony: It’s all about the BABIP. Luck plays a huge role in average. It’s why I usually ignore average or account for a 20 point swing in either direction.

  19. Tony says:

    @Grey: true. so is Pedroia more of a .300 hitter or .330 hitter? One thing i do like is the guy walked 75 times and only struck out like 45 over an ENTIRE season, thats a pretty nice player to have at the plate….

    he is either on base or puts the ball in play ALL THE TIME, but i still hate him….

  20. AL KOHOLIC says:

    @Tony: we play a 7×7 league,obp and k`s are hitting cats, he really pulls his weight in this league

  21. Grey

    Grey says:

    @Tony: His BABIP last year was .300, he has a career BABIP of .316. So split the difference between .300 and .330 for what kind of hitter he is. I’d probably project him for .310.

  22. Tony says:

    @Grey: what round you think he should go in of a 12 teamer, WITH shortstop and 2B eligibility if this happens…..?

  23. AL KOHOLIC says:

    @Grey: blanks ranked really low,whats some numbers you have for him

  24. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    @Grey: Grey, I would own Kouzmanof, but, if he were moved out of SD, wouldn’t that increase his value?

  25. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:

    edit: wouldn’t own Kouz

  26. Grey

    Grey says:

    @AL KOHOLIC: He has 30 homer power and a .250 average. He’s like a poor man’s Adam Dunn.

    @Simply Fred: Sure, depending on what situation he fell into.

  27. Stephen says:

    EDIT: Manship didn’t lose his rookie eligibility.

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