Fantasy Baseball Advice

We continue our 2010 fantasy baseball keeper posts with B.J. Upton.  At first, I was going to write about Justin Upton, but I figured he was such a no-brainer that I didn’t need to dedicate a keeper post to him.  Of course he’s a keeper.  B.J.’s much more interesting.  In his short major league career, he’s shown all the tools that once had the scouts drooling over him.  B.J., tools, drooling, you do the math.  Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown them all the tools at the same time.  A B.J. hasn’t had this many ups and downs since Chloe Sevigny in The Brown Bunny.  The closest B.J., um, came was at the age of 22 in 2007 when he hit 24 homers and stole 22 bases while batting .300 in 474 at-bats.  That season led everyone to the assumption Upton was a sure 30/30 threat.  Unlimited potential.  He was like Hal Ashby before the 80′s.  Then Upton’s age 23 season came and his power disappeared.  Hrmph.  Reports came out that he was playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder.  It zapped his power.  We excused him.  The 44 steals made the medicine go down.  In 2009, it was more of the same and this time the average bottomed out, too.  So where’s the power?  Is it ever returning?  What’s up with the average?  Is he steals and nothing else?  To the point, is B.J. Upton a solid fantasy baseball keeper for 2010?

Let’s tackle average first.  In 2009, his line drive rate fell (15.4% from 18.9% in 2008) and his walks plummeted (9.2% from 15.4% in 2008).  Meantime, his fly ball rate went through the roof (for him) from 30.6% in 2008 to 40.3% in 2009.  His K-rate also went up.  This leads me to think he was swinging at balls he didn’t used to swing at and trying to do too much with them.  This isn’t much of a limb, the numbers bear this out with him swinging at nearly 5% more pitches outside the strike zone.  This might sound Tim McCarverish, but he needs to relax, wait for his pitch and his average should turn around.  I’d bet on a .270 average from him in 2010.  As for the evaporated power, it’s a bit trickier.  His home run per fly ball ratio in 2007 was 19.8%.  That seems to be an outlier.  He’s probably closer to a 10-12% home run to fly ball hitter.  That still puts him in the 15 homer range.  The steals are there, obviously.  So if a 15/40 hitter with a .270 average is a keeper for your team, I’d keep B.J. Upton.

With the the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball, we’ve finished our recap of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is our final look back.  This is still a look back.  It is not how I’d rank them for 2010 aka next year.  As with the other rankings, the final rankings come from ESPN’s Player Rater.  I did this so I could objectively critique MY preseason rankings to THEIR end season ones.  Their rankings for closers weigh wins and Ks very heavily, but whatevs.  At least it’s unbiased.  There’s a theme in the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball we need to address.  There’s more unranked players in this post than any of the previous ones.  With 8 of 20 closers being unranked.  This is why you never pay for closers.  They’re unpredictable.  The ones that you think will do good disappoint (K-Rod) or flat-out suck (Lidge).  Then there’s the ones that just come out of nowhere.  It all comes back to SAGNOF!  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Joe Nathan – Has an unprecedented streak of 24 consecutive months being a $12 salad.  As soon as he gives me his address, I’ll send him the green, leafy ribbon.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  2-3/1.90/1.00/75, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

2. Jonathan Broxton – Didn’t lead the league in saves, wasn’t that dominant with ERA, but 114 Ks for a reliever will get them ranked pretty high.  Throw in 7 vulture wins and you have the number two ranked closer.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  3-3/3.00/1.15/80, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  7-2/2.61/.96/114, 36 saves

3. Mariano Rivera – Some year he will not live up to his standard.  When that year will be is anyone’s guess. Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-3/1.76/.90/72, 44 saves

4. Andrew Bailey – If you take the best middle reliever year and throw in 26 saves, you have Bailey.  Definitely one of those guys that you were probably waiting for the bottom to fall out at any moment and it never happened.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-3/1.84/.88/91, 26 saves

5. Heath Bell – I owned Bell in quite a few leagues since people seem to shun guys who had never closed before even though pitchers have shown over and over again closer experience usually means little.  Had his best save and worst ERA month in September with 9 saves and a 5.14 ERA.  Preseason Rank #16 2009 Projections:  4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves, Final Numbers:  6-4/2.71/1.12/79, 42 saves

6. Brian Wilson – Because I’m on the West Coast, I always find myself watching the tail end of Giants games.  What I (think) I notice is Wilson is rarely a guy that seems like a sure thing.  I say (think) because it might just be the games I watch.  So this sent me looking at all of the games he closed in 2009.  What I found is my (thought) was correct.  He only recorded 11 three up, three down saves out of 38.  To give you some perspective, Franklin had 14.  Though Wilson was flat-out dominate in the 2nd half (1.64 ERA).  Preseason Rank #18, 2009 Projections:  3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves, Final Numbers:  5-6/2.74/1.20/83, 38 saves

7. Trevor Hoffman – Old is as old continues to do.  Next year, he’ll be entering to the Hells Belles Comedy Cabaret album. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-2/2.10/.93/89, 47 saves

8. David Aardsma – Bailey’s probably the epitome of SAGNOF, so what’s right under epitome?  Example of?  Embodiment?  “Eh, same thing?”  That was Aardsma.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  3-6/2.52/1.16/80, 38 saves

9. Huston Street – In the preseason, I said, “Yes, he’s injury prone. Yes, he lost the A’s closer job last year.  If he’s the Rox closer, none of that should matter to you.  As I’ve repeatedly repeated… If someone’s getting saves, you should be drafting him.”  Yup.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  1-4/3.75/1.10/17 saves, Final Numbers:  4-1/3.06/.91/70, 35 saves

10. Jonathan Papelbon – Here’s a place their Player Rater fails big time.  Papelbon is this low because he recorded only one vulture win.  It’s nice, but you can’t really rely on closers to get vulture wins.  The rest of his numbers are fine for a closer.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  6-2/1.75/.95/80, 45 saves, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.85/1.15/76, 38 saves

11. Ryan Franklin – I’m pretty sure La Russa and Duncan could make Brendan Ryan a serviceable closer.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  4-3/1.92/1.20/44, 38 saves

12. Francisco Cordero – By taking the last letters of his first name and the first letters of his last name, he has one of my favorite nicknames, CoCo.  Who’s some other players this would work with?  Ben Zobrist with EnZo…  Zobrist sounds Jewish and he gets an Italian nickname?  What’s he, a pizza bagel?  Doesn’t work.  How about Ryan Howard?  AnHo?  Eh..  Wait, I got one!  Miguel Montero.  Now we just need Daron Sutton to say something like, “The Count’s in Elmo’s favor…”  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  2-6/2.16/1.32/58, 39 saves

13. Rafael Soriano – See what I said regarding Bailey.  Go ahead, scan your eyes up a little.  There ya go!  Soriano did basically the same thing.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-6/2.97/1.06/102, 27 saves

14. Joakim Soria – Soria dealt with some injury issues this year and still put together a good season.  Soria blamed the WBC; I blamed Selig.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  3-4/2.00/.95/60, 35 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/2.21/1.13/69, 30 saves

15. Brian Fuentes – Knock on the door.  *opening door*  A red flag stands there.  What’s up, red flag? Fuentes had more saves than Ks.  Red Flag out.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  1-5/3.93/1.40/46, 48 saves

16. Francisco Rodriguez – Wasn’t a great season, but you were foolish if you thought he was going to save another 62 games.  Actually, wasn’t as bad when you consider he gave up 5 runs in his next to last appearance.  Right before that, he had a 3.09 ERA.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.30/80, 42 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.71/1.31/73, 35 saves

17. Jose Valverde – Hopefully you were able to grab LaTroy Hawkins when he filled in for Valverde, so your JoTroy Valkins got you 36 saves.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  4-2/2.33/1.13/56, 25 saves

18. George Sherrill – From Donkeycorn to a middle man but still retained his value, especially for MR. B’s, as Sherrill only gave up 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings in LaLa Land.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  1-1/1.70/1.12/61, 21 saves

19. Michael Wuertz – Wuertz comes in as our first and last true middle reliever to make the top 20 closer list.  If you owned, say, James Shields (11-12/4.14/1.32/167) and Wuertz the entire season, your combined numbers would’ve been 17-13/3.74/1.23/269; that looks like vintage Nolan Ryan.  In other words, you could’ve done *pinkie to mouth* Wuertz.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.63/.95/102, 4 saves

20. J.P. Howell – Whatever Beane is feeding his bullpen up in Oakland, Tampa could use some of it as Howell was a whole lot better before he started closing.  Thurston and Lovey expected more.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/2.84/1.20/79, 17 saves

Chicago Cubs 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (27) | 2008 (20) | 2007 (18) | 2006 (15) | 2005 (10) | 2004 (7)

Record of Major League Team and Affiliates
Majors: 83 – 78 (NL Central)
AAA: 72 – 72 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 71 – 69 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 71 (Florida State League)
A: 81 – 57 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 34 – 52 (Northwest League)
R: 29 – 27 (Arizona League)

The Run Down
Two really interesting factoids from Baseball America’s preview on the 2009 Cubs, factoid number 1 – “Chicago hasn’t gotten long-term production out of a first-round pick since Kerry Wood in 1995; factoid number 2 – other than Geovany Soto, who as drafted in round 11 in 2001, they “haven’t developed a position player it signed into an All-Star since they drafted Joe Girardi in 1986.” With a couple of trades this past year (Sean Gallagher and catcher Josh Donaldson for Rich Harden; Jose Ceda (#4 ranked prospect) for Kevin Gregg) the Cubs traded away a third of their top ten prospects. Through trades in the recent past, Chicago has built a contender each year at the expense of their farm system.

After another disappointing season on the north side, the Cubs have several pressing issues about their team. Milton Bradley was a flop, Rich Harden is a free agent, Alfonso Soriano got old really fast, and second base was a tale of two halves. Bradley looks like he on his way out of town, Harden may be too costly to keep around, Soriano is on the tail end of his career, and there are few solid options from within to replace the outfield spot of Bradley let alone another injury ravaged season of Soriano. On a positive note, Derrek Lee was his old self hitting 35 homers and .306/.394/.579, Randy Wells came out of nowhere to have an extraordinarily great rookie year, and Ryan Theriot provided good defense and sufficient offense from the shortstop position.

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox
Andrew Cashner, John Gaub, Blake Parker, James Russell – All SP
Welington Castilo (C) ,Starlin Castro (SS), Josh Vitters (3B)

Players of Interest
*A number prior to a player’s name indicates Baseball America’s 2009 prospect Ranking

#1 – Josh Vitters | 3B | A/A+ | 19 | totals – .284/.314/.456 | 458 AB | 18 HR | .172 ISO | 65:12 K:BB
If you’ve been reading Razzball all summer, you would have saw here that I wasn’t sold on Vitters being a stud major league hitter in his career. This isn’t to start a debate, but a harsh analysis on Vitters may not be terrible. Each prospect has their pros and cons. I will look at Vitters again next summer and see where he is at. His overall total numbers look pretty good, but he struggled at High-A this year. Look at his slash line at each level:

A – .316/.351/.535 in 269 AB
A+ – .238/.260/.344 in 189 AB

Not what you want your hitter doing upon a promotion; granted his BABIP at Single-A was .330 and at High-A was .258 indicating he was having some “bad-luck.” He is only 19, is a level-or-so above his age, but his walk ratio will start to become a larger red flag as he progresses through the minors unless he can change his walking ways. He still is one of the best young hitting prospects in the entire majors, so patience may be a HUGE key (and for me, as well).

Kyler Burke | OF | A | 21 | .303/.405/.505 | 465 AB | 43 2B | 15 HR | .202 ISO | 99:78 K:BB
2009 was a career year for Burke. He cut his strikeout rate by a third and increased his walk-rate from 7.7% to 14.4% since 2008. With an aging outfield in Chicago, he may be a bright spot if he can reproduce these numbers at higher levels. Take this all with a grain of salt, this year was his first full year at Single-A, but he has had half seasons there in the past two seasons.

#10 – Hak-Ju Lee | SS | A(ss) | 18 | .330/.399/.420 | 264 AB | .090 ISO | 25/8 SB/CS | 50:31 K:BB | .401 BABIP
Chicago’s big international signing out of Korea did pretty well for his first year in America. He looks to be a light hitting, defensive shortstop with some speed. Keep in mind he had an extremely high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Being so young, his ceiling is still sky high. Look for him to play at Single-A in 2010 and ideally progress to Double-A by the end of ’10.

#7 – Starlin Castro | SS | A+/AA | 19 | totals – .299/.432/.392 | 429 AB | .093 ISO | 28/11 SB/CS | 53:29 K:BB
Another prized shortstop in the Cubs organization put things together this year.  The upper brass is really hoping that Theriot can keep the spot warm for Castro. He has more speed than his steals would even lead one to believe as he is still learning the stealing craft. Playing predominately at Single-A, his late season promotion to Double-A proved that he could handle the higher competition. Look for him to start at Double-A in 2010, even if he performs above expectations at Arizona this fall.

#3 – Andrew Cashner | SP (RHP) | A+/AA | 22 | totals – 6.7 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 100 1/3 IP | 2.60 ERA | 1.18 WHIP
Once he was promoted to Double-A his stats started to fall. Both his strikeouts and walks took large hits at Double-A. One positive is he only gave up one homer all season. His ranking should take a hit as he didn’t produce like a top prospect. If he has a strong Fall League performance, he may be nearing a mid-season look or September call up in 2010. Look for him to start in Double-A.

#9 – Jay Jackson | SP (RHP) | A+/AA/AAA| 22 | totals – 9 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 127 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.22 WHIP
His level spread is a bit deceiving as he only started and pitched in one game at Triple-A. Once he started pitching in Double-AA his walk rate went from .8 BB/9 in 36 1/3 innings at High-A to 4.2 BB/9 in 82 2/3 innings at Double-A. His dominance in High-A is truly what makes his stats look really impressive. He might start 2010 in Double-A, waiting for the warmer weather of the Pacific Coast games, or could start in Triple-A.  Either way, he should be given the chance to play in the majors next summer.

Jeff Antigua | SP (LHP) | A(ss)/A | 19 | totals – 8.9 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 68 2/3 IP | 3.01 ERA | .99 WHIP
A little under the radar, Antigua pitched brilliantly aside from his seven home runs he gave up. Being left-handed will increase his stock greatly as the Cubs don’t have many top left-handed prospects. He’ll probably start again in Single-A with a mid-season promotion to Double-A.

Honorable Mentions
Brett Jackson | OF | R/A(ss)/A | 20
Drafted number 31 in the 2009 draft. Hit seven of his eight homers, 11 of his 13 stolen bases, and five of his six doubles at Single-A.

Rebel Ridling | 1B | A | 23
As both ranked first basemen above him in the Cubs organization have graduated, look for Ridling to be a prospect rated in the low twenties for 2010. He finally produced in his second year at Single-A. He cut his strikeouts by nearly half, almost doubled his walk rate (not hard when you start so low), yet he still has a long ways to be more than organizational depth.

#16 – Tyler Colvin | OF | A+/AA | 23
Actually got promoted in September with three hits in 17 at-bats.

#8 – Ryan Flaherty | 3B/2B | A | 22
Hit 20 homers in 485 at-bats while producing an above average slash line of .276/.344/.470 and a decent K:BB of 98:50.

#18 – Chris Carpenter | SP (RHP) | A/A+/AA | 23
Finally moved up a few levels to match his talent and age. Still performed below expectations at each level besides Single-A, while pitching the best overall at High-A

How’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Billy Butler for 2010.  She told me where to find Manic Panic hair dye so I could dye my roots blue (which is a great gospel group, but stick to My Roots Blue’s first two albums).  We’ve gone over the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA).  Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.75/1.24/174

22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010.  105 Ks; blech!  I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year.  He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.49/1.14/105

23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma.  He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself.  Don’t worry about wins.  Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games.  Pitfall, Harry!  Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers:  8-8/2.79/1.23/185

24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets.  Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show.  Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.13/1.21/146

25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again.  Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.62/1.26/161

26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits.  On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13.  That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively.  The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th.  By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year.  Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.73/1.31/204

27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me.  Confounded I tell ya!  He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league?  That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves.  Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-4/2.93/1.23/119

28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half.  He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific.  Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  15-9/4.37/1.19/162

29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA).  In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06.  Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010.  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers:  15-13/3.84/1.27/127

30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league.  Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate.  He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season.  For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/2.89/1.18/116

31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks.  What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up.  It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.77/1.28/149

32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting.  My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year.  Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise.  Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  11-9/3.65/1.31/172

33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed.  Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there.  His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/3.05/1.28/104

34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE!  Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one.  Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd.  His 2008 looked like an outlier.  In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA.  What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us.  Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  11-11/4.06/1.23/163

35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman.  His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma.  Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?”  Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/4.08/1.28/113

36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first.  So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  8-12/3.95/1.26/189

37. Chad Billingsley – Bust!  I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk.  Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci.  I will love Billingsley again next year.  Major bounce back coming.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers:  12-11/4.03/1.32/179

38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break).  I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good.   Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-9/4.38/1.38/193

39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92.  Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible.  Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.84/1.25/105

40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career.  Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  13-9/4.04/1.40/195

All the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters has been done. For those that skipped the title, today starts the top 20 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for 2010 (caps for those still wearing their Final Destination 3-D glasses). This is a recap. Will these effect next year’s rankings, sure. But not entirely. (Note: These rankings are from ESPN’s Player Rater. It’s just an objective third party to fairly gauge my preseason rankings. Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is perfect? No. For one, it weighs Wins very heavily.) Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Zack Greinke – I’m sure Rudy will cover this at some point in the offseason, but let’s get it out of the way right off the bat.   Greinke showed up on the Risky pitcher post in the preseason.  I count 13 of the 20 pitchers Rudy flagged that did run into troubles in 2009, so I think we can agree it wasn’t an abomination.  The concern with the high pitch count in 2008 for Greinke turned out to be nothing.  Everything was roses.  Red luscious roses like Rip Taylor’s intern tosses at his feet.  Two months under a .55 ERA, more than a K/IP on the year, next to no walks and he didn’t need to talk to the ball between hitters.  Preseason Rank #42, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.10/1.30/130, Final Numbers:  16-8/2.16/1.07/242

2. Tim Lincecum – A few weeks ago, someone in the comments said Tim Lincecum’s mullet makes him look like someone Ellen DeGeneres should be dating.  It’s funny because it’s true.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  17-8/3.00/1.18/210, Final Numbers:  15-7/2.48/1.05/261

3. Felix Hernandez – To stick with the Ellen theme, F-Her headed the preseason tier I named, “Guys I’m Kinda Gay For.”  Wainwright was also in that tier.  Luckily, I grabbed Hernandez in one league and Wainwright in just about every other league.  F-Her had one bad month (May; 4.34 ERA), topped 200 Ks, a 1.99 ERA in Away starts, a .603 OPS against and 19 wins.  This is about this year, but, I’ll say it, I love him for next year, too.  And, for some reason, I think he’s underrated.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.33/190, Final Numbers:  19-5/2.49/1.14/217

4. Javier Vazquez – In the preseason, CHONE drooled over Vazquez.  Lots of people disagreed.  CHONE 1, Lots of People Who Disagreed 0.  My abridged comments in the preseason were, “Besides having a last name that would be great for Scrabble, I like him.”  At 33, it was hard to imagine Vazquez having a career year, but that was exactly what he did.  Preseason Rank #34, 2009 Projections:  15-8/4.15/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  15-10/2.87/1.03/238

5. Dan Haren – In the preseason, I said, “Here’s the first pitcher (in the top ten) that I have a legitimate shot at owning in leagues in 2009.   Wins aside, guess who had more value in 2008, Haren or Webb?  Obviously I’m asking the question because it’s Haren.  He beat Webb in WHIP and Ks and practically tied him in ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I did end owning him and he pitched predictably terrific in the 1st half and just-above mediocre in the 2nd half.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  16-7/3.40/1.15/195, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.14/1.00/223

6. Chris Carpenter – Not going to claim I saw this season coming at all.  I always thought Carpenter was a great pitcher, but, frankly, I was worried about him coming off the injury season.  I preached caution; I should’ve preached to ignore me.  Preseason Rank #59, 2009 Projections:  9-5/3.70/1.27/110, Final Numbers:  17-4/2.24/1.01/144

7. Roy Halladay – In 2008, Halladay had a 2.78 ERA and 206 Ks.  This year, 2.79 and 208.  If I had to boil down fantasy baseball success, I’d say you want predictability + upside.  Considering most starters are like shooting fish in a barrel that has no fish in it, Halladay brings a sense of predictability that isn’t easily found.  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.50/1.10/165, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.79/1.13/208

8. Adam Wainwright – Had some control problems early in the season, but he straightened those out in a big way in the 2nd half (97/18 K/BB).  Yes, he made Rufus and me very happy this year.  Preseason Rank #23, 2009 Projections:  13-7/3.60/1.20/150, Final Numbers:  19-8/2.63/1.21/212

9. Justin Verlander – With his 2nd season in a row of poor April numbers, it’s fair to say Verlander takes some time to start cooking.  I guess when you rely on a 98 MPH fastball, the warm weather helps the, uh, heat.  Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  15-9/4.00/1.30/160, Final Numbers:  19-9/3.45/1.18/269

10. CC Sabathia – When you see his ERA went up in 2009 compared to 2008, it’s easy to say he couldn’t handle The Jetstream.  Alas, you’re wrong, doode.  He had a 3.17 ERA at home compared to 3.53 on the road.  It’s all about the home cooking (and eating).  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  18-7/3.20/1.10/200, Final Numbers:  19-8/3.37/1.15/197

11. Josh Johnson – Throw out his final start of the season when he may or may not have been suffering from an illness and his ERA would’ve been 3.03.  BTW, don’t you love how ESPN and Yahoo put a guy’s condition in parenthesis in their player card news?  I wish everyone had player cards.  “Last night, Grey grabbed a burger (hungry) then tried to have sex with his girlfriend (headache).”  Preseason Rank #39, 2009 Projections:  13-6/3.75/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  15-5/3.23/1.16/191

12. Matt Cain – Cain was a strange case for me.  (Prepare yourselves for the longest run-on sentence in history.  You may need an oxygen mask.)  I loved Cain coming into the season, ended up drafting him in a few leagues, he got off to an incredible start, I wrote repeatedly on the blog about how his numbers were supposed to regress, so no one would trade for him in any of my leagues because of what I wrote or because they read something similar elsewhere, the more I tried to trade him the better he pitched, then I stopped trying to trade him and he finally regressed in September (5.22 ERA).  Preseason Rank #32, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.35/1.26/200, Final Numbers:  14-8/2.89/1.18/171

13. Jair Jurrjens – Not that I’m against Jar-Jar, but his K-rate does bore me a bit.  Preseason Rank #48, 2009 Projections:  12-8/3.75/1.35/150, Final Numbers:  14-10/2.60/1.21/152

14. Jon Lester – He had the tale of two seasons.  It (June on) was the best of times, it (April/May) was the worst of times…  If you jumped on his coattails in June when I advised you to, you did pretty good.  Preseason Rank #27, 2009 Projections:  15-7/4.00/1.30/150, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.41/1.23/225

15. Wandy Rodriguez – Hmm… What’s this, snitches? Yup.  Preseason Rank #42, 2009 Projections:  10-7/3.75/1.30/160, Final Numbers:  14-12/3.02/1.24/193

16. Ted Lilly – I avoided Lilly in all of my drafts to my detriment.  But, honestly, when you have F-Her, Haren, Cain, Wainwright, Wandy and Wolf in 90% of your starting spots on your teams, you’re doing okay.  I’ll repeat it ad nauseam in the preseason, but you don’t have to draft pitching early to compete.  The only league I drafted a top pitcher, I took Peavy.  And we know how that worked out.  Preseason Rank #44, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.30/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.10/1.06/151

17. Randy Wolf – In a 15 team league (that’s deep, ya’ll), I grabbed Wolf off of waivers.  In my 16 team league, I took Wolf in one of my last picks.  Chances are Wolf was not drafted in your leagues, which makes me think Wolf was one of the best value pitching picks off of waivers.  I like Wolf and Wolf Like Me, TV on the Radio.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-7/3.23/1.10/160

18. Josh Beckett – My preseason AL Cy Young pick didn’t fair that terrible, but he’s definitely not winning the award.  The odd thing is my preseason predictions for his numbers weren’t very far off.  Just turned out there were a lot of great pitchers in 2009.  As Jessica Shaw would say, steroids out, pitching and speed in.  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  16-10/3.75/1.20/175, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.86/1.19/199

19. Ubaldo Jimenez – Chances are if you owned Ubaldo, you picked him up sometime in May or June after his 7.58 ERA April.  So his numbers are even sweeter in your Active stats.  Preseason Rank #49, 2009 Projections:  10-8/4.20/1.40/165, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.47/1.23/198

20. Cliff Lee – The Adverb moved to the NL and his ERA went up.  Weird!  Guess it’s because the Phillies play in a stadium smaller than a jai lai fronton.  Somewhere in Aruba, J.P. Ricciardi dials his phone.  “Hey, Halladay… You’re welcome!”  Preseason Rank #17, 2009 Projections:  15-10/3.75/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  14-13/3.22/1.24/181