Fantasy Baseball Advice

Lastings Milledge is about to get called up by the Pirates (We’re not your Pops’ Pirates!) and he should get playing time.  Shoot, I could prolly get playing time with the Pirates.  Is this still the head case that the Mets and Nats gave up on?  Sure.  Luckily, the rap scene in Pittsburgh is about as happening as Poughkeepsie’s and there’s no chance Milledge will high-five a fan after a homer, because, well, the Pirates have no fans.  Lastings Milledge can give you a two month stretch that looks remarkably similar to what Beltran has done over the last two months, or he can give you a two month streak where he looks like what Beltran should’ve done for the last two months.  Will Milledge suddenly be 10 team worthy?  Check yo projections at the door.  I don’t know.  His 2nd half last year was hella strong.  (Yo and hella were requests of the 18-29 test audience).  So Milledge can give you a ten team worthy outfielder and that’s worth a flier in every league.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Ty Wigginton – Hit a homer on Thursday.  Know how many homers he hit last August?  12.  Why does he get hot in August?  I don’t know.  Maybe his moon sign coalesces well with August’s sun sign.  Whatever the case.  Pick him up in deep leagues and monitor him closely in 12 team or shallower.

Kyle Blanks – The Pillsbury Fro Boy has been hot.  That’s your positive tip, now dance on the floor and have room for The Chubbster.

Billy Butler – The Moobster has also been hot.  I have my doubts about him for this year (I’m getting excited about drafting him next year).  But if you’re struggling at corner, you have my express written consent to pick up Butler.

Chris Tillman – As defined by the Razzball Glossary, a roofie is a rookie pitcher who fails to deliver on their tremendous K potential and, instead, abuses your trust and violates your ERA and WHIP.  If you need to take on risk, Tillman’s worth a shot, but you may end up crying in the corner of your bathroom.

Derek Holland – Shoot me now for what these roofies will do to you.

Clayton Richard – Latest HodgePadre.  Suddenly, he has value for mixed leagues.

Aaron Poreda – This trade makes him an immediate grab in NL-Only keeper leagues.

Adam LaRoche – I told you he’d get a boost from his trade!  It just wasn’t his first trade.  My visions of the future are sometimes murky.

Andy Marte – Father, I must confess, I’ve picked up Andy Marte in a mixed league.  You know how much I love prospects who are past prospect staus.  His Triple-A stats were apple-sweet this year.  When I own him, I can’t stop thinking about crates of Dippin’ Dots slowly parachuting into Africa, so it can’t be all bad, right?

Eugenio Velez – Hot and he has speed.  (Sounds like a young Ron LeFlore.)

Jim Johnson – Doesn’t he sound like a cult leader?  Jim Johnson states that in order to get vulture saves you must drink his Kool-Aid.  This will also help you shed your Earth skin.

Danys Baez – If you’re really hard up for saves and Johnson’s gone, grab Baez.  Though you may be left holding your Earth skin.

Matt Thornton – Potential vulture saves if Ozzie ever convinces Jenks to go to the Disgraceful List.

Kaz Matsui – He might be as exciting to you as the Jockular Sphincteritis he once suffered from, but he’s 4 for his last 7 with his homer yesterday.  He hit over .300 in 2008’s 2nd half with 5 homers and 5 steals.  Decent enough in NL-Only leagues or very deep mixed leagues.

Howie Kendrick – Not only is he hot, but if you pick him up, you can mock everyone who drafted him back in March.

Ben Francisco – Don’t cha just wanna call him Benji Cisco?  No?  Okay, maybe it’s me.  He has no value if he’s on the bench, but while The Flying Hawaiian’s grounded, he’s worth a look.

Michael Saunders – Had a .310/.378/.544 line in Triple-A along with 13 homers in 248 ABs.  Eh, he’s a decent flier in AL-Only leagues, but I just can’t get excited about Mariners prospects.  If he was any good, why didn’t they trade him to the Orioles?

SELL

George Sherrill – Unless you count Holds or you’re a MR. B., Sherrill’s not worth your roster spot.

Ian Kinsler – Yup, it’s almost that time of the year.  Kinsler’s missed the last two games and he’s never played in more than 130 games.  Washington has already said he will bench him more in the 2nd half to try to keep Kinsler out of the dumps, so far it hasn’t worked.  Kinsler hit .157 in July with 4 homers and 6 steals.  Now don’t trade Kinsler for a lanyard anklet, but you might want to explore some trades.

Jake Peavy – The White Sox didn’t acquire Peavy to rush him back and risk further injury.  He’s there for the playoff push.  This trade doesn’t suddenly make him healthy. Not to mention, he leaves the (really) friendly confines of Petco for a hitters’ park.  It’s not great for his value.

Victor Martinez – Nothing like a trade to the Sawx to cause a player’s perceived value go through the roof. Will this trade boost his value?  Of course.  Will his perceived value suddenly be higher than his actual value?  Yup.  Again, don’t trade him for the innate ability to spell Gewurztraminer, but I’d keep my avenues open.

Casey Kotchman – Nothing like a trade to the Sawx to… Oh, wait.  He’s now stuffed in the middle of the revolving cornerman door.  Considering Kotchman will only be facing favorable matchups now, it doesn’t kill his value, but you would need a backup for the days he sits.

Francisco Liriano – Member back in 2006 when you guys had the time of your life?  Frolicking around the park like the two schoolkids you were.  You’d start a sentence, he finished it.  You’d invite him to sleep over and beg your Mom to make his favorite kind of pupusas.  Well, now he won’t leave and he just wet your bed.  Stop lying in Liriano’s urine and drop him.

George Sherrill was traded from the Orioles to the Dodgers.  Sherrill will backup Broxton.  If you play in a league with Holds, by all means.  If you don’t, you can lose him.  Okay, that’s that.  Now for the interesting part, who closes for the Orioles?  Personally, I think it’s going to be Jim Johnson.  I said him in last week’s Buy/Sell and he’s the same name I’m saying now.  Johnson’s been owning the 8th inning setup duties for a while now, though he’s also given up runs in 3 of his last 4 appearances.  So who else could it be?  Could it be Baez?  The answer my friend is blowing in the wind… Danys Baez was a donkey-corn back in 2005 for the Rays, collecting 41 Saves and posting a 2.86 ERA.  So he’s capable, but the Orioles seem likely to give Johnson the first shot.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Webb – Suffered a setback. Backdate this news to the day after opening day.  Set him free, if it’s meant to be… Well, you know that line that your sister used to tell herself when a guy broke up with her.

Orlando Cabrera – Sounds like the Twins are going to end up with Cabrera.  This does little to his value.  Maybe a handful more Runs.  And that may be the only time you hear a handful of runs being a positive.

Alexei Ramirez – Sprained ankle and will miss a few games.  Hopefully this doesn’t turn out the same way Carloses Quentin/Beltran missed a few games.

Yunel Escobar – After being hit by a pitch, he’s day-to-day with a wrist contusion.  (I just made up the contusion part, but I sounded smart, right?  Don’t worry, I didn’t make up the day-to-day part.)

Ian Kinsler – Out two games now with a hammy problem.  You know who else had a hammy problem?  Kermit the Frog!  Oofa!  (Kinsler will be covered more in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.)

Trevor Crowe – Was called up to replace Ben Francisco.  Someone gots the hate for Matt LaPorta.  Don’t ask me, I just report it.  Does it make sense?  Nope, not a whole lot.

Roy Oswalt – Astros are optimistic that Oswalt can make his Sunday start.  Guys who ride tractors in the offseason don’t miss starts with a tweaked back.  He reminds me of Shawn Michaels.  Keep bashing his back with a metal chair, but he’s still going to drop the big ‘bow.

John Grabow – Traded to the Cubs.  Grabow can stop salivating, he’s now a LOOGY.

Jason Hammel – 1 1/3 IP, 5 ER in Metco.  Hmm… He’s supposed to be good away from Coors.

Jorge de la Rosa – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Now that’s a Rockie pitcher away from home.

Clint Barmes – Hit his 14th homer yesterday.  Right now, you might be thinking to yourself.  Clint Barmes has 14 homers?  Yup, and he also has 9 steals.  Stephen Drew has 7 homers and 3 steals.  Jose Lopez has 13 homers and 2 steals.  Asdrubal 3 homers, 11 steals.  Barmes has been in a terrible funk lately, yet, on the season, he’s still been wildly more valuable than Uggla and about on par with Rollins.  Go figure.

Luke Hochevar – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Do you see what he does to you when you trust him?  Just give him a rest for this year.  I promise to remind you what a great prospect he is during next year’s preseason.

Aubrey Huff - 2-for-4, 3 RBIs.  Okay, so my Buy on him was maybe a month early, but hopefully this is the start of something.  God knows he can’t un-start any more than he has.

Johnny Cueto – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Since I made him a Sell on June 26th, he has a 7.61 ERA.

Tim Stauffer – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I’d still only start him at home, but nothing comes closer to home than a terrible Reds team.

Ryan Zimmerman – Is there no in-between button on this guy?  After being ice cold for two months, he’s now on fire with 4 homers in the last seven games.

Ben Francisco – Slight value while Victorino’s nursing his knee.  Okay, guess the fantasy baseball ‘pert, “I’d like to nurse from Megan Fox’s knee! Yowsers!”  A:  Matthew Berry

Rafael Soriano – 1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Ks.  Phew.  That’s good to see.  Hopefully, he held his breath and the hiccups are behind him.

Derrek Holland – 8 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Every time I try to get out of rookie pitchers, another one pulls me in.  I’m a big fan of Holland and he gets Oakland next.

Michael Young – 2 HRs and has 16 on the year while batting .326.  Great year that I didn’t see coming, but he hasn’t done this in 4 years, so no one really saw it coming.

Gavin Floyd – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks vs. the Yankees.  Let me guess, home start?  He has an under 3 ERA at home.  Imagine he was a Padre.  Zoinks!

Eugenio Velez – 3-for-5, Maybe feeling the heat from the Dirty Sanchez (who did not play yesterday), but Velez is scorching hot lately.

Matt Holliday – Homered for his new team. See, it’s all working out exactly how– Oh, the Cards lost.

Matt Thornton – Got the save opportunity, but again he was brought in in the 8th inning so again Ozzie can say technically he hasn’t removed Jenks from the closer role.  The bad news (or good news depending on who you own), Thornton blew the save.  Which might also confirm Ozzie’s noncommittal commitment to Jenks.

David Ortiz – I’ve pretty much kept to myself on the whole steroids issue.  Ya know, this is fantasy baseball, who gives an effin’ eff in the screwhole what I think, but Ortiz annoyed me.  He was one of the biggest critics of A-Rod when Rodriguez admitted to having his uncle’s cousin stick needles in his butt.  Ortiz also was “shocked” and “confused” about Manny’s use.  I’m shocked and confused how anyone thought Ortiz hadn’t used steroids.  Let’s assume everyone did steroids.  Even Greg Maddux.  Who cares?  Everyone did them.  Doesn’t matter.  Move on.  But what’s annoying is the talking out of both sides of his mouth.  To bastardize Madonna, Big Papi don’t preach.  I hope Manny says something like this, “Ya’ll knew I was doing some grimy shizz, but I’m shocked and confused to hear Ortiz’s giant melonhead is artificially enhanced.  Oh, and Ortiz is 52 years old.  Cust kayin’.”

Rudy’s off on some far away exotic island (Manhattan) and asked me to wave my wand on the fantasy baseball roundtable.  This week it’s hosted by Patrick Cain of the Albany Times Union.  (I think the sun only comes in from the west in Albany, hence his eyeblack under only one eye.)  This week’s question:

Second Half Sleepers that should be available in more than 50% of mixed leagues.  Here’s the answers.

Carlos Ruiz and angry Philly fans have a new battery mate in Cliff Lee, as he was traded from the Indians along with Ben Francisco. Going the other way were a slew of prospects, including my fave, Carlos Carrasco.  J.P. Ricciardi thought the Indians should’ve held out for Howard, Utley and Rollins.  Now to finalize this deal, Cliff should change his name to Phil.  Cliff Lee’s value takes a small boost, but he has a 3.14 ERA already.  You’ll take a low 3 ERA and love it.  You know who else gets a nice boost from this trade?  Matt LaPorta.  The MLP Package should get the call up to play with Francisco leaving his starts in, well, Cleveland.  Though the MLP Package should’ve been up and playing already and that hasn’t really happened yet.  Keep an eye on LaPorta in mixed 12 team leagues and deeper, because when he gets called up, he’ll be worth owning.  In some leagues, I’d even do a preemptive grab.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Freddy Sanchez – Traded to the Giants.  Sanchez’s value stays about the same.  Finally, the Giants have a 2nd baseman.  Now if they only had a 1st baseman, shortstop and three outfielders, they’d be all set.  The Giants must’ve thought to themselves, “Hey, if the Dodgers can compete with essentially the same quality 2nd baseman as Sanchez, why can’t we?”  A wise man once said that, “If Freddy Sanchez is an upgrade to your offense, you need a lot more than just Freddy Sanchez.”  That wise man was me.

Tim Alderson – Was the prospect that the Pirates got for Sanchez.  Scouting the Unknown has already gone over Tim Alderson.  The Cliff Notes version is, “Tim Alderson very good.  For Freddy Sanchez?  Giants idiots.”

Ian Snell – Headed to Safeco with Jack Wilson (blech) for Jeff Clement and Ronny Cedeno (blech x 2).  Jack Wilson for Ronny Cedeno is like trading a wiffle bat for a foam bat.  Snell though is intriging.  He was decent for about a year in Pittsburgh.  Going to Safeco and a fairly weak AL West isn’t terrible for his value. (The AL West weak?  The Mariners are contenders and they traded for Jack Wilson.  ‘Nuff said.)  Would I pick Snell up?  Nope, not yet.  But I’ll be watching him as he mows ‘em down in Tacoma.

Jeff Clement – He’ll be in the minors at first at, um, first, but if he gets the call he’ll be worth looking since he has catcher eligibility.  More than likely, he won’t steal ABs from Doumit, unless Doumit gets hurt, which has a decent chance of happening every day Doumit gets out of bed.  Clement will probably work his way into the 1st base mix when, or if, he gets called up.

Lastings Milledge – Argh, enough Pirates news already.  Milledge is supposed to be recalled on Friday.

Matt Cain – 9 IP, 0 ER and a no decision.  Glad to see that trade for Garko has added some much needed punch.

Roy Halladay – 7 IP, 3 ER.  J.P. Ricciardi asked Halladay to give up a few runs so no one would meet his demands.  Part of the master plan!

Jose Lopez – HR yesterday.  Usually he hits homers in bunches.

Adam Jones – Last week, I pointed out how Jones was hot again.  This week, he has 3 straight games with a homer.

Chris Tillman – 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Eh, he looked a’ight.  Touched up for a few long balls and left some pitches up in the zone that could have led to a worse line.  Vs. the Royals you’d like to see a bit more, but he’s a rookie.  If you wanna try for the upside, you have to take on the risk.  Vs. the AL East?  I wouldn’t bother in one year leagues, except for matchups.

Jim Johnson – He entered the 8th in a save situation then the O’s added on, so Johnson stayed in and got the save.  Doesn’t mean he’s now the closer, but it may mean he’s next in line.  Which is good to know, ya know?

Joba Chamberlain – 8 IP, 0 ER.  Now three great starts in a row where he’s looked less like his mother’s son.

David Ortiz – DNP as Lowell DH’d and LaRoche played 1st.  The LaRoche Situation™ is costing all of these guys playing time.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 7 ER.  Not pretty, obviously, but after being touched up in the 1st inning, he threw 6 scoreless until Dusty left him in there too long.

Mat Latos – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks, 2 baserunners.  Very encouraging start from the young pitcher, but keep in mind he only threw 86 pitches.  On most nights, 86 pitches won’t get you through the 7th inning.  But as a HopdgePadre?  Get on the train!

Edward Mujica – Well, that cleared that up.  He’s no longer in the running for the closer job if Bell moves, because Mujica’s taking Geer’s spot in the rotation.  Mujica will be limited to 60 pitches so he’s not a wise investment.

Andruw Jones – 2 HRs. Oh, and having a better season than Josh Hamilton.

Scott Feldman – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER, while looking more like his brother, Corey.

Curtis Granderson – 2 HRs.  I feel like Grandy’s putting together a very solid season (22 HRs/17 steals) and it’s going by pretty unnoticed.  Not sure why.  Is it because he’s batting .259?  Cause I’ll take a .240 average from a guy who’s on his way to a 30/25 season.

Justin Verlander – 7 IP, 3 ER, 13 Ks and his 12th win.  He has 172 Ks through July.  Incredible.  Yeah, he could win the Cy Young.

Carlos Quentin – HR yesterday.  About flippin’ time.

Wladimir Balentien – Traded to the Reds for bag of buttered popcorn.  Confusing on a few levels.  The Reds needed an outfielder?  The Reds are buyers?  I guess Baker just can’t stand the thought of playing Gomes every day.

Howie Kendrick – Batting .450 in the last seven games.  Yesterday, homer and 5 RBIs.  Is it me or is every middle infielder simultaneously hot?  It’s The Age of the MI Schmohawk.

Francisco Liriano – Brian Duensing replaced him yesterday not because Liriano’s been terrible, though that reason would’ve worked for me, but because Lirano had swelling in his forearm.  Supposedly, Liriano should be fine by next week.  I’m not sure if that’s good news or bad news for Liriano owners.

Alfonso Soriano – Al-So’s smoking the ball.  You know who else is hot?  Aramis and Lee.  About time the Cubbies stepped up their hitting. (BTW, I like how in yesterday’s blowout Piniella pulled his regulars, except Bradley.  Maybe Lou feels the same way as me.  If Milton plays enough, he’s got to get hurt.  It’s no coincidence that Milton Bradley makes the Operation game.)

Reed Johnson – Out four weeks with a broken foot.  The other day Randy was hurt.  This is the worst week to be a Johnson since Lorena Bobbitt was famous.

A few StU posts back I was asked to belabor the highly touted A’s farm system. With all fairness to the commenter, I was under the impression that the A’s had all their top arms up, and hitters too – let’s be honest they cannot hit water if it was raining out. After much deliberation, James Simmons was the most interesting starting pitcher (they have a guy named Michael Inoa, who I couldn’t find much about, but he is a Cuban signing. Also, Henry Rodriguez is a high velocity arm in the bullpen, but is further away); and Chris Carter was an intriguing prospect. Sure I could have written about Aaron Cunningham or Adrian Cardenas, but that would be cheating and you know it. Enjoy!

A quick reminder how the Cube Ratings work.

James Simmons | SP | Oakland Athletics | DOB: 9/29/86 | 6-3 | 205 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | A’s #10 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Control (100) | K-Rating (78) | Efficiency (97)

There is tremendous pitching depth in the A’s farm system, but much of it has reached the majors already this year (Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro, Josh Outman, and Andrew Bailey) so Simmons is reaching a bit deep for difference makers this year or possibly even next year. However, he is ranked higher than Bailey (#23) or Outman (#12), meaning he has some talent.

Simmons was considered one of the most advanced pitchers in the 2007 draft when he was drafted out of college, but by advanced they meant great control of his fastball and change-up. His breaking pitches are, um, to put it nicely – JUNK! On the bright side, his change-up was voted the best in the system by team management. His fastball sits between 88 to 92 mph, topping out at 94 with a bit of movement and excellent control. Obviously, the change-up is his go-to pitch and he has stellar feel for it too. The breaking pitch of choice (since he hasn’t really developed either curve/slider) is still lacking any consistency. So what kind of numbers has he posted so far:

07 (AA): 6.9 K/9 | 2.43 BB/9 | 29 2/3 IP | .61 HR/9 | .359 BABIP | 3.94/3.44 ERA/FIP | 1.48 WHIP
08 (AA): 7.94 K/9 | 2.12 BB/9 | 136 IP | .73HR/9 | .345 BABIP | 3.51/3.26 ERA/FIP | 1.34 WHIP
09 (AAA): 5.75 K/9 | 3.45 BB/9 | 101 2/3 IP | .71 HR/9 | .326 BABIP | 5.75/4.21 ERA/FIP | 1.51 WHIP

Nothing spectacular. Out of college, the A’s sent him straight to AA, and he only had a brief stint before the season was over. In 2008, he proved that he deserved a promotion to AAA. Not a high strikeout pitcher, he must rely on that nice control he is touted for. However, 2009 has been awful for him. He lost over 2 k/9 and added a walk per nine innings. I am venturing to say that his is a bit over his head. Unless he can pick his K-rate back up and remove a walk from that BB/9 stat, he has little going for him as a major league starter. At best, he looks like a back of the rotation starter who can eat some innings for the A’s.

The A’s rely heavily on their farm, and Simmons is expected to contribute to their future plans. He was drafted earlier (first round) than his talent level by about two rounds. Needless to say, there is still plenty of time for him to rebound back to his AA numbers by the end of this year, or next. He is still only 22 (soon 23!).  Keep an eye on him though, the A’s always are able to find useful innings out of their young prospects.

Chris Carter | 1B/DH | Oakland Athletics | DOB: 12/18/86 | 6-4 | 210 lbs | Bats/Throws: Right | A’s #6 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Power (98) | Speed (15) | Contact (14) | Patience (78)

Other than having an extremely deceitful name (footballer; I am a die-hard Minnesota Vikings fan) and the same name as another Red Sox player, this Carter has something that those do not – a jaw dropping power swing! Remember last week when I brought up Mike Stanton, well we have found the second bash brother. He was part of two relatively large trades two years ago – the Carlos Quentin from Arizona to Chicago White Sox, and the Dan Haren from the A’s to the D-Backs (both in the same winter too). Needless to say, he is mighty talented. Just look at what he has accomplished so far:

07 CHW (A): .288/.382/.512 | .224 ISO | .332 BABIP | 459 AB | 24 HR | 24 K% | 12.7 BB%
08 A’s (A+): .259/.361/.569 | .310 ISO | .296 BABIP | 506 AB | 39 HR | 30.8 K% | 13.2 BB%
09 (AA): .305/.407/.515 | .210 ISO | .374 BABIP | 377 AB | 16 HR | 25.5 K% | 14.3 BB%

(He played in 2006, but his stats aren’t quite relevant enough for consideration, and truly just clog up the screen to make it look more complicated.)

Great ISO (that power he displays goes to all fields), nice slash lines, stellar patiences, and continuing refinement of his game. The K-rate is a bit scary, but he still reaches base at a nice clip thanks to impressive plate discipline. According to team player development personnel, because of his power swing he is extremely susceptible to breaking pitches, and there is a few large holes in his swing. The “high” batting averages should fall off into the .250 to .260 level as he progresses through he minors (one does not strikeout that often and still hit for a high average, sans a high BABIP). What is nice to see is that he has increased his walk rate with each passing year. Lets hope that continues.

He is more athletic than his body may seem, but he doesn’t have great defense. Let’s just say he is like Ryan Braun or Mat Gamel – he could make a nice soccer player for all the balls he boots. This may be a concern if he was in the National League, but alas, for once a defensively-challenged masher is in the American League. Like I said, he is athletic, but not fast, or known to be a base stealer. However, this year he has 11, which is near his career total. Not sure where this came from, but if he keeps this up it would be a pleasant addition to his already star laden future. He may not be Ryan Howard, but a Carlos Pena may be in the line (a Pena that actually gets a chance before bouncing around for a few years).

Look for Carter to get a call up this year and play an intriguing role in spring training next year. He could do something like Pablo Sandoval did/is doing this year. I would follow Carter as much as Stanton or other big boppers like Justin Smoak (even a Chris “K” Davis).