Fantasy Baseball Advice

Razzball is hosting the Fantasy Roundtable this week.  Very stressful.  Had to clean up my bachelor pad.  Was busy baking all day.  One guy only drinks decaf because caffeine keeps him up all night.  Two guys had torn hip labrums and needed to be Bela Karolyied up the 4 flights of stairs to my apartment.  Good times.  So here was the question for the group:

What category(ies) do you think about least when drafting and managing your fantasy roster?

Brett Greenfield – Fantasy Phenoms
Wins.  You have the least control over predicting it.

Tommy Landry – RotoExperts.com
When I am drafting my fantasy teams, I almost completely discount the Wins category at the draft. In fact, I so dislike it as a fantasy category that I altered my main league to count Quality Starts instead. Why do such a thing? First, pitchers are inconsistent and never a sure thing. How can I possibly value a number of wins for a guy who might start three games and go down for the year with a busted UCL? Or get removed from the rotation? Demoted? You get the picture. The second, and more important issue, is that wins are highly dependent upon team defense, quality of bullpen, and just plain dumb luck. It’s easy to see why, if your team can’t field a ball, you’ll lose out on win opportunities (Hence the FIP metric). Same goes for teams with shoddy bullpens who can both blow the win/save and trash the SP’s ratios (via inherited runners scoring) in only a few short pitches. But the one factor that can absolutely kill fantasy value for pitchers (even on the elite teams) is luck. This is the reason BABIP has become such an important stat in fantasy over recent years, because it demystifies the impact of luck on the game. That said, I never again want to suffer through a season like Roger Clemens had in 2005, where his shiny happy 1.87 ERA was only good for 13 wins in 32 games started. Go for Ks and especially the ratios, and cross your fingers about the wins, because you simply can’t predict that category with any degree of certainty on a year-to-year basis.

Tim Dierkes – RotoAuthority.com
The two I think about the least are wins and saves.  With wins, I feel that I just can’t control it.  I wouldn’t draft an OK pitcher on a good team, like Chien-Ming Wang, just in search of the W.  It doesn’t always work, but I don’t worry too much about the quality of a team or offense if I like the starter.  Even during the season I don’t change that approach, I just try to assemble guys who will succeed in ERA, WHIP, and Ks.

With saves, I’ll wait until late in the draft and go for the Frank Francisco/Huston Street/George Sherrill class, for the most part.  But during the season I am vigilant in making sure I have three or more active closers.

Mike Podhorzer – FantasyPros911.com
Technically, I think about every category equally since I calculate dollar values for every player. If I didn’t though, the Wins category would be the easy answer. We all know how flukey the category could be, whether it’s the bullpen blowing your win or your pitcher’s offense deciding not to show up for the game; there are too many variables that go into wins and losses that are out of a pitcher’s control. Last year, Gavin Floyd won 17 games with the White Sox, while posting a 3.84 ERA in 206.1 innings. In just 10 fewer innings, his rotation mate John Danks only won 12 games, despite posting a superior 3.32 ERA. The difference? 8.51 runs of support behind Floyd compared to just 6.51 for Danks. Wins should not be completely ignored as the odds are a pitcher on a team with a good offense like the Red Sox will win more than a pitcher with the backing of a weak offense like the Pirates, but focusing on the pitcher’s underlying skills is the much better approach.

Adam Ronis - Newsday
The category I pay the least attention to is wins. There are too many factors involved in wins that are beyond a pitchers control. They need run support, defense and the bullpen to hold the lead since most pitchers rarely go the entire game. Johan Santana easily could have won 20 games last season and won 16 because of poor run support and a shoddy bullpen. This season it has been even worse. He has two losses and didn’t allow an earned run in either one. He is 4-2 with a 0.78 ERA. Dan Haren has a 2.09 ERA and a 56/9 K/BB ratio in 56 innings and is 3-4. For most other stats you can go by a players skills, but for wins too many elements are involved that are outside of the pitcher’s control.

Patrick Cain- Albany Times Union
Without a doubt average is the least thought about. I use to pay little attention to WHIP, but now its average. If I’m taken a bunch of Adam Dunn-like players I’ll be sure to grab one high average guy, but that’s the extent of it. One reason could be I focus most on my H2H league. And avg in a H2H is incredibly variable. Even great avg hitters like Albert Pujols has 0 for 10 streaks, so you can still have week of a team .250 followed by a followed .450.

Jon Williams – Advanced Fantasy Baseball
I try not to concentrate too much energy thinking about the actual 5×5 categories especially when it comes to pitchers. I prefer to look at K/BB ratio, K/9, and Ground Ball percentage. I believe this gives a much truer indication of a pitcher’s skills than Wins, Saves, ERA, or WHIP. I also look at the defense and lineup of the pitcher’s team. If a pitcher shows good skills and pitches in front of team with a quality defense and/or a great lineup, they go even higher up my rankings.

Hitters are another story. It is impossible to ignore the traditional categories with hitters but there are still better indicators of skills. I like to look at Ground Ball/Line Drive/ and Fly Ball percentages. Consistently high Line Drive rates are a solid indication of a skilled batter, especially when it comes with high walk rates and low strikeout rates. In potential power hitters, I want to see a high Fly Ball percentage and consistent HR/FB ratios. A player’s team and position in the lineup helps when estimating potential Runs and RBI totals.

Rudy Gamble – Razzball
I can’t argue with the consensus that Wins are the flukiest stat.  I just look for SPs with solid ERA/WHIP/K potential and generally get boned on Wins (how does my boy Randy Wolf have a sub-3.00 ERA on a 27-13 team and have 2 wins?).

I tend to discount AVG more than others.  I find low AVG guys like Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Dan Uggla fall in drafts further than they should given their value in other categories.  I just look to complement with cheap AVG/Runs guys  like Freddy Sanchez or Placido Polanco.

As for Runs, RBIs, and Saves, I consider all three to be highly driven by opportunity.  I find Runs/RBI are driven mostly by lineup spot and will adjust expectations if shifts are made (e.g., Kemp loses value getting put so far down in LA lineup).  For Saves, I’ll pickup just about any guy who is closing.  My goal is to draft enough Saves that I can live without pickups but, if I’m successful picking up Saves on the waiver wire, I’ll start trading closers at some point during the season.

Carlos Delgado might as well enjoy a Cocktail or two as he’s the latest member of the new hip injury (double entendre) – the torn labrum.  It took A-Rod two months to come back from this and he’s younger, in better shape, and a bigger poser (not sure how the 3rd point is relevant, just felt like saying it).  If you drafted Delgado, you’ve got to just let him go.  No use clogging up a DL slot except if you’re in a real deep league.  Forget the Mets replacements for now – Tatis, Murphy, Kranepool, etc – as none of them have 1B eligibility.  Hopefully you have another player for the 1B slot and can just grab the best 1B/3B available for cornerman.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rickie Weeks – Weeks’s out-for-the-seasony is epidemic, ya’ll.  Hardy likes to hit 2nd and Hart or Counsell would make sense in the leadoff spot.  If Gamel plays 3rd, Counsell or Hall would be play 2nd.  Hall would get a nice boost in value if he gains 2nd base eligibility, which is to say he would go from no value to some value in deep leagues.  This Weeks injury should be a wake up call for all Blalock owners.  One day he’s hitting homers, the next day he has a root canal that sidelines him indefinitely.  Okay, Weeks, Nomar and Baldelli offer you a ride, but the catch is you can’t wear your seatbelt, do you accept the ride?

Mat Gamel – HR and error yesterday.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  Defense be damned!  Gamel got the start at 3rd.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems like how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the right side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.

Kyle Lohse – 4 IP, 4 ER.  He’s not good.  Wait, do I hear an echo?  Oh, no, that’s just me the last five times he’s pitched.

Scott Richmond – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  Was a good match-up, still not a fan of his going forward.

Ross Detwiler – Was 0-3 with a 2.98 ERA in Double-A.  Sounds like he should be a starter for the Nats!  I wouldn’t go after him outside of NL-Only leagues and even there, I’d want to see more… On someone else’s team.

Joel Hanrahan – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Hanrahanahanananan got Kazaamahamahammed!

Glen Perkins – 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Got flapjacked by the Yanks and now is being sent to the Disgraceful List with elbow inflammation.  I don’t know who the Twins end up replacing him with, but two guarantees:  1) over/under on K/start will be 1.5 and 2) you don’t need to pick him up.

Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton – Rays scored a kajillion runs and they went a combined 0-for-6.  What a bunch of ticker teases!

Ross Ohlendorf – 5 IP, 5 ER.  The only thing standing in the way of The Dorf is his lackluster pitching.

Carlos Gomez – 4-for-8 in the last two games with a steal.  He’s starting for about a week with Young out.  Those desperate for steals may be able to sneak in a few for the next couple of days.

Mark Teixeira – 2 HRs yesterday with 4 RBIs.  Almost June?  Yup, makes sense.

Jason Marquis – 8 IP, 1 ER.  The Marquis de Sad did it to the Braves royally.

Bobby Abreu – 0-for-2, zero home runs and 14 steals on the year.  The Angels ended up with the 2nd coming of Reggie Willits.

Kendry Morales – 2 home runs yesterday to bring his total to 8 on the year while batting .289.  I realize he’s been yawnstipating in his career, but he’s having a solid year and could end up with 25/100/.280.

Russell Branyan – Hit his 10th homer on the year.  Hey, cheap power, say hello to your mother for me.

Vladimir Guerrero – Coming back from his torn pectoral to be the Angels’ Designated Hacker.  You have to think the pectoral plays some role in swinging.  Wouldn’t bet that Stitch Tits is going to deliver much more than an empty .280 average.

John Lackey – 5 IP, 4 ER.  Aren’t you glad you held onto him for two months?  His owners probably wish he would’ve just pegged Ichiro to start the game (Ichiro’s owners probably wish that too).  I think this was just rust with Lackey, I wouldn’t be too concerned.

Brandon Morrow – Pitched the 6th and 7th, giving up 2 earned runs.  The way he’s going he’s going to be pitching the 3rd inning soon.

Randy Wolf – Is he Randy for a win or Hungry for a win?  Either way, 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER should buy a brotha a win.  To give you a glimpse into my soul, I own Wolf in three leagues and I haven’t been disappointed at all.  56 1/3 IP, 46 Ks, 1.07 WHIP and a 2.72 ERA.  If someone was willing to give you Wolf for say the random rookie nookie you have (Zimmermann, Gamel, Parra), I’d do it.  I think it’s possible too, because Wolf gets no love.  In fact, I grabbed him off waivers in one of my ‘pert 15 team leagues.

Garrett Atkins – Getting benched by Hurdle.  Mrs. Garrett’s Atkins diet was more successful than Atkins this year.

Phil Coke – Got the save as Mo needed rest after pitching on Sat and Sun.  The last time Coke got credit for a Yankee save was when Steve Howe donned the pinstripes.

Joey Votto – Votto’s in the Scripps Clinic for an examination… E-X-A-M-I-N-A-T-I-O-N… Examination.

Let’s see, winner of the All-Star game gets home field advantage… The WBC… Open the season in another country… Steroids testing after letting the world believe Bret Boone was good… Finally, interleague play.  Selig, hang your legacy right next to the monkey carcass that helped spread the AIDS virus.  Well, interleague is here whether we like it or not.  I don’t, but this is only partially about me.  So what can we do about interleague play for fantasy baseball?

Play fringe AL Starters.  This is more for H2H leagues than roto, but you might be able to grab some value in roto leagues too.  During interleague play, the AL has an advantage.  They carry a guy who actually hits in the DL slot.  They don’t need to dust off the half-dead pinch hitter who sucks (Hey, Hinske, no offense, all right?).  So Buehrle vs. the Pirates is quite tasty.  Slowey, Perkins and Baker vs. the Brewers?  *Grey shrugs* Why not?  Even Washburn vs. the Giants has some appeal.  Actually, whoever the Mariners throw against the Giants is worth a spot start.

Then there’s the NL hitters that might actually play thanks to Selig’s hairbrained interleague shenanigans.  Hey, Mat Gamel, wanna actually play now that we’ve called you up?  Okie-dokie.  Ian Stewart, you should be playing every day, and now you can.  What’s up, Hinske?  Actually, you still suck.   Sheffield may have some appeal, especially since he should be familiar with the pitchers he’ll be facing.  Though I’m not sure how familiar anyone can be with Tim Wakefield.  Matt Stairs is actually a DH already, only he DHs once a game rather than four times.  The Red Sox might think about implementing that with Ortiz.

Well, that didn’t take long.  Rickie Weeks has swine flu in the wrist.  Anything negative health-wise wouldn’t surprise me with Rickie Weeks.  “Coach, Weeks got the black plague.”  “Wasn’t that only spread by rats 600 years ago?”  “Don’t know, Coach.  After Friday’s game, he was with some old broad who had snaggle teeth.  Might’ve been that.”  I wouldn’t be surprised to see this force Weeks to the DL then miss two months of the season because that’s what Weeks do.  It would be too convenient for Bill Hall to go to 2nd and Gamel to fill-in at third.  But offensively it would make more sense than the blahtoon of Counsell and Iribarren.  Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Carpenter – Returning on Wednesday.  I don’t think he gets to the All-Star Break healthy.  If you have Carpenter, you might think about hammering out a deal.  (<–Pun!)

Koji Uehara – 5 IP, 4 ER.  I still believe he’ll be better going forward than most doodes that are on waivers.

Andy Sonnanstine – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  As you probably heard by now, Sonnanstine had to bat 3rd for Longoria because Maddon was wearing his Monsters vs. Aliens 3-D glasses instead of his prescription ones when he made out the lineup card.  So my question is, how long do you think Maddon contemplated just pitching Longoria to keep him in the lineup?

Armando Galarraga – 2/3 IP, 5 ER.   A guy I’d pass over for Koji.  Give him a Stiff-Armando off your team.

Ben Francisco – 2 HRs.  Be(e)n quite the disappointment.  Might be the start of a hot streak though.

Luke Hochevar – 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  Walks got to Luke HocheVarErich early as he gave way to the bullpen, including Ravishing Ron Mahay.

Brian Roberts – 4 steals this weekend.  Obviously the spark he needed was being in Friday’s Buy/Sell.  So what’s your excuse Lester?

Pat Burrell – To the DL.  Some fantasy owner’s voodoo doll finally worked.

Matt Holliday – 4-for-4, raising his average to .267, meanwhile, after an 0-for-12 weekend, Cust falls to .262.  Now if Ryan Theriot would return Alexei’s eternal soul, everything will be dandy.

Trevor Cahill – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  You know when I might like this guy?  2010.

Brad Ziegler – 2 IP.  He’s a middle reliever now, in case anyone’s holding out hope…. Or hoping for holds.

Josh Hamilton – 0-for-3 then left the game with a mild groin strain.  This is much better than the extra hot groin strain.

Jordan Zimmermann – 5 IP, 5 ER, 6.35 ERA on the year.  How about dem rookie pitchers?!  (Way off topic, but I had SportsCenter on in the background when I was writing this up and I think Magic Johnson said Kobe didn’t need penetration because he was busy getting his teammates off.  Whoa… Magic.  Family show!)

Chan Ho Park – 1 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Give Happ the ball!  When I say Happ, you say “Hochevar.”  Hmm… Damn you, subconscious.

Johnny Damon – Hit a game-winning homer yesterday (as if no one heard) and now has 10 homers.  I think he can hit 22 homers on the year and still have lots of value, but he’s not going to hit 35 homers.  The time to sell is… wait for it… here it comes… you know what it’s going to be anyway… but you still want to hear it… so here it is… coming right after this ellipsis… wait, what was I saying… was this about Star Trek?  I saw it and liked it, but “Great?”  Not really.  Oh, and sell Damon now.

Kevin Slowey – 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Probably the number one reason why if I trust a pitcher, I start them just about every time out.  When you start picking and choosing, you get Slowey for three runs in three innings and miss two earned over almost eight innings.

Gavin Floyd – 5 IP, 6 ER.  And this is why I don’t own pitchers who I don’t trust.  I wouldn’t want to start Floyd anywhere.

Aaron Hill – Another homer to bring his total to 11.  I wouldn’t sell him and could see him getting to 30 homers.  Zoinks!

Clayton Kershaw – 7 IP, 1 ER and 1 hit.  I could point you in the direction of Slowey and say the same applies.  And it does.  What I’ll add is, Kershaw needs to cut his walks otherwise he’ll hardly ever see the 7th inning.  Look at yesterday’s game as an example.  He gave up only one hit and he only made it to the 7th.  Pitch Economy 101 as taught by a former employee of AIG…

Chris Coghlan – If anyone’s paying attention to this kinda of stuff (and my guess is everyone is), Coghlan’s batting .167 and sat yesterday.

Juan Pierre – 3-for-5.  Hey, should I sell him high? First of all, random italicized voice, who’s buying a guy who’s on borrowed playing time?  Second, why not just collect the 25 steals he’s going to get in the next month and a half and be done with him?  Rhetorical!

Rich Harden – 6 IP, 4 ER.  Someone asked a very legitimate question about Harden on Friday, “I figured (Harden would be) either dominant or injured…I didn’t expect healthy and mediocre.”  Okay, maybe not a question, per se, but it brings up an interesting point.  Then commenter, Mark, answered with a little taste of brilliance, “(Harden) threw a ton of sliders last year, and this year dropped back to his 2007 level.  He appears to be throwing his changeup more than ever.  Velocity looks pretty good on everything….his fastball’s a good bit slower than it was 2 years ago but no slower than last year.  Here’s the biggie…he’s lost a ton of movement on his slider, particularly along the vertical axis.”  Also, Mark went on to notice that Harden may not be throwing his splitter at all anymore.   This could be the reasoning behind Harden’s mediocrity.  Or not.  But it’s interesting, nevertheless.

David Aardsma – Got the Win yesterday and will get the majority of the saves while Morrow tries to find what he’s looking for where the streets have no names.

Justin Masterson – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Throw out two terrible starts against the Indians and the Rays and he’d be sitting on a very pretty record right now.

David Wright – From what I hear from Joe Morgan, Wright took a long slide yesterday when he was caught stealing.  A long slide.  A real long slide.  See, the problem was the slide was very long.  Too long of a slide.  Joe Morgan sounded like Milli Vanilli when they were caught lipsynching or Raymond Babbitt at the blackjack table.  Say it once, Joe.  We’ll figure it out.

Brad Lidge – Got the save, but, check this, he wasn’t brought into a save situation until after two lefties faced some other doode.  Lidge ain’t off the ledge yet…

Darren O’Day – Got the save yesterday but only because C.J. Wilson got the save the previous two days.  Wilson’s still the fill-in.  I would own Wilson in just about every league except NL-Only ones, cuz then your leaguemates will just mock you.

Shane Robinson/Nick Stavinoha – If you know who either of these two guys are, you have a Willie McGee bobble head and you’re halfway through writing a book titled, “Whiteyball,” that will definitively answer all those crazy Moneyball people.

Ohmigod, Grey’s totally going against Rudy’s risky pitcher post?  They are so fighting.  I hope Rudy rips off Grey’s stache.  $5 says it’s not real. Uh-hum.  I can hear you, random italicized voice.  I’m actually typing you!  My bad. So, yes, Jon Lester is a risky pitcher.  But at this point, he’s also a buy.  His ERA’s 6.31.  That’s ridunkiculous from where it should be.  He’s pitching well (minus some ill-timed long balls), tremendous K-rate, solid walk rate.  A pitcher who is pitching well and has a 6.31 ERA is such a crazy buy, that I wouldn’t be surprised if his owners weren’t even selling.  But, on the other hand, they’re smarting from his earned runs.  They may see LaTroy Hawkins or Jason Bartlett and be like, “Hey, Lester’s killing me, why not take a guy that at least has been good?”  That’s why you prey on those suckas.  This is why you have brass balls and you just chucked one at your mean lady neighbor who keeps bugging you when you turn the Dropkick Murphys to eleven and put it on repeat.  I’m a sailor peg!!!  And I lost my leg!!!  I love that song.  Wait, what was I saying?  Oh, yeah.  Lester — get him, within reason.  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy and Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Justin Duchscherer – If he’s on waivers and you can stash him on your DL, stash away.

Koji Uehara – I mentioned his delicious tacos and WHIP the other day then afterwards I think I heard a pin drop.  What, no love for Koji?  1.12 WHIP and 32/7 K/BB in 42 and two-thirds innings.  Get on the taco truck!

Nolan Reimold – “Weiters, you gotta see the meals they give you!  And the towels… They’re not hard from dried glue!  Oh, and I saw the guy that played Bunk in the stands.  Markakis is gonna take me to Dick’s Last Resort tonight.   Oh, it’s all so wonderful.  I’ll try to write again soon.”  Reimold has about 20 homers and a .280 if he were to play every day for the rest of the year.  I think he falls about 8 homers short of those projections.  If he gets hot, you might be able to flip him.

Chris Coghlan – Has the best opportunity to impress because the Marlins will give anyone a fair shot.  Shoot, they’re still waiting on Hermida!  Coghlan can give you middle infielder numbers at 3rd.  15/15 might be his ceiling for this year.

Gerardo Parra – Rookie Nookie is alive and well.  Hinch says Parra will see time.  Might be because he wants to put his stamp on the team.  Who’s Hinch?  Not important.  Parra can run.

Mat Gamel – The end all be all.  The big mah-hoff.  The head cheese.  The one guy I would’ve benched for a month in a keeper league.  But he has no playing time.  It may be too early for him.  But in deep leagues if you’re sitting on a random schmohawk middle reliever, and Gamel’s available, it’s worth the two week gamble to sit him on your bench and see what he does.  Don’t drop the Queen for the Rook, but you can drop a Pawn.

Ricky Nolasco – Another risky pitcher.  He’s either hurt or he’ll be much better.  Again, I’m not saying drop Cueto to grab him.  But Nolasco’s owners are definitely fed up with him, so it would pay to buy him very cheaply now and hope for a correction.

Rich Hill – Could be on his way back.  Honestly, I’m not picking him up in any league.  I’d pick up three Randy Wolfs and five Gaudins (Hey, I’m an art collector!) before I picked up one Rich Hill.  He’ll have tough match-ups, his meltdowns are legendary, I’m just not that brave.  I can understand it in deep leagues, just won’t be me.

Ian Stewart – With Alex Gordon on the DL, someone’s gotta be my crush.

Jerry Hairston Jr. – He’s hot right now.  Not sure if it’ll last, but it doesn’t hurt to take a two week flier on a middle infielder.

Emmanuel Burriss – George Papadapolis owns him.  Why won’t you?

Ryan Madson – Lidge has been a mess.  Something’s up.  Ain’t his value.

Juan Cruz – Shouldn’t be on waivers in any league that counts saves.  Soria has shoulder trouble.  ‘Nuff said.  Or enough, if you’re a completist.

David Aardsma – Will be getting saves by next Monday.  May get them for the next month.

SELL

Joakim Soria – Don’t trade him (or drop him) right now.  But at the first sign of good news or when he returns, I’d explore trade offers for him.  When a team checks to see if there’s structural damage on your closer’s shoulder, it’s not good news no matter the results.

Any Schmohawk The Nats Put In the 9th Inning Role – I’m one of the biggest save vultures you’ll ever meet.  I own Dan Wheeler for crimey sakes!  Still, I’m not going near this one.  Kip smells, Hanaratty, Bye-mel… None of them.

Brian Roberts – He has 5 steals and 3 times caught.  He’s 31 years-old.  Maybe he lost that extra step that makes all the difference.  If you’re banking on 40 steals, you might want to look at trading Roberts and picking up Burriss.

Jason Bartlett – Let’s see, he’s batting .369.  He’s a .285 hitter.  He has 5 homers, that’s tied for his career high.  He has 9 steals.  Maybe he gets to 30.  So you’re looking at a guy who’s bumping his head on his ceiling and you wanna get on his back? Not unless you wanna fall for the old banana in the tailpipe.