Fantasy Baseball Advice

Did Longoria outproduce Alex Gordon? Yeppers. Ryan Braun? Nopers. Somewhere in the middle’s not a bad place to be, ask Malcolm and Monie Love. Three home runs last night gave Longoria 25 on the year in only 111 games. What’s really nice to see is he hit these three after sustaining a broken wrist. He should be safe for the last week-plus of the season, but I have to think the Rays are going to rest him a bit during next week’s games because the franchise’s first playoff series means a bit more. So keep that in mind going forward. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard – Has a torn labrum and it could mean… Well, it could mean nothing for Bedard for a while, if ever again. The Mariners lost Adam Jones, George Sherrill and three prospects for Nadir Bupkus. “Bad trades are a part of baseball; I mean who can forget Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson for gosh sakes.”

Shaun Marcum – Marcum down for done.

Cameron Maybin – 4-for-4 yesterday. Right now, I’m not that excited for this year, but he might get a legit shot next year.

Ben Sheets – In a followup to his sore arm, the GM said today, “He’s got pain, and he sometimes can pitch with it, and he sometimes can’t.” Ringing endorsement! I went over why dropping Sheets was probably the way to go.

Troy Percival – Pitched for the first time in a week, throwing a scoreless eighth, only to watch Wheeler blow the save. Percival will now be back in the closer’s role as long as he stays healthy.

Chris Perez – More than likely not in the closer’s role anymore as he tried to give away last night’s game. Jason Motte figures to see any saves in the last week plus.

Rickie Weeks – First at-bat in 5 days. Every time Ned Yost started Weeks you know Sveum was cringing, muttering that if he were manager he would never start Weeks.

Zach Greinke – 8 IP, 2 hits. I think at this point I’ve been Greinke’d.

Justin Duchscherer – From the files of, “Dur.” His bullpen session was cut short because of pain. Surprise, surprise. He’s done for the year.

Tim Lincecum – Bit of a scary moment for Lincecum in yesterday’s game. The 118 pitches? Nah, he usually does that by the seventh. The scary moment came in the second when Lincecum tried to bunt a Randy Johnson fastball and it smashed his fingers into the bat. He came back with taped fingers and continued on like nothing happened. Later on, Lincecum won a between-innings chili cook-off, taught some youngsters how to use radiometric dating to disapprove The DaVinci Code and then saved Dunn out in the kiddie pool. Wear floaties, big man!

Your man, Grey, loves a piece of cheap tail like Ice Cube loves a nappy dugout. (In fact, I might love cheap tail more. This is totally debatable between Ice Cube and I. Anytime you want to grab a podium, Cube, and go word for word. Bring. It.) If you’re in a keeper league (or any league for that matter), you probably got Shoppach for the price of a Capri Sun with a missing straw, but you’re probably thinking, “Well, this year was nice. How about I dunk him back into the free agent pool cause he’s a catcher and a fluky one at that?” Yo, check yo’self before ya wreck yo’self, fool.  “So you’re saying Shoppach’s a dream keeper?” Nah, this shizz is neither black nor white. It’s Grey, son. This year isn’t as fluky as you might think. In his last full year of Triple-A, Shoppach showed power hitting 26 home runs. His current .270 average is a bit fluky though. That will come down a bit and with Victor Martinez lurking on the team, Shoppach could be the recipient of a quick hook in ‘09. All of this portends to less value for Shoppach. Not to mention, keeping catchers is a risky and not usually a fruitful exercise. So why keep Shoppach? Because a $1 catcher who could easily hit 20 HRs is a bargain, no matter how you slice your keeper pie. Anyway, here’s some more keepers to keep and not keep for next season:

KEEP

Nate McLouth – Was not a Hirame (that’s a whitefish in a sushi bar, usually fluke). McLouth is a solid bet next year for 20/20/.270. We shall call him, Lastings McHunter.

Chad Billingsley – (<–Early 2009 Cy Young pick. Then again I picked Bedard and Peavy for this year. Hmmm… Anyway!) Billingsley has about a K/IP, he’s cut his walks, he plays in a cavernous caverny cavern thing, he plays a majority of his games against the Padres, Giants and the Diamondhacks, his team should provide offense for wins, he’s going into his third year in ‘09 which is usually the time starters come into their own and he’s only going to be 24 at the start of 2009. Holy heffin’ hey! I will be gushing further this offseason, but right now I have to change my sock.

DON’T KEEP

Jose Valverde – As with anything in fantasy baseball, there’s a time and a place for anything. Is there a time and a place to keep Valverde? Perhaps. I’m having a hard time deciding when that time and place would be. If your other choices are Willy Aybar and Freddy Sanchez? Then, yeah, I keep this schmohawk. If you think keeping a closer who could explode at any moment is a good move, then I got a $400 million dollar bridge to sell you.

James Loney – In the preseason, I was briefly excited about this schmohawk. Why? I haven’t the foggiest. Maybe when I go over my 2009 predictions in the offseason someone can say, “Hey, Grey, Mark Grace looks at Loney and says Loney looks a lot like me, but with less power. And that’s me reminding you!” (BTW, The Hardball Times took a look back at first basemen and used our rankings to compare and contrast. Color me awesome. We will also be taking a look back in the offseason to compare and contrast ourselves against ourselves. Will the mirror be kind? Stay tuned…)

You know how you never really see yourself for who you are? Right, well, I wonder if Sheets doesn’t see himself as injury-prone. Instead, Sheets sees everyone else and thinks they’re Magoo’ing their way through their life. He sits in the locker room and he’s like, “Wow, Fielder I can’t believe you didn’t just twist your ankle right there!” And Fielder looks at him confused, “Ben, I was just tying CC’s shoelaces for him.” (Cause Prince and CC obviously have to tie each other’s shoelaces.) Also, I wonder if Sheets’s family is constantly trying to get him out of harm’s way. His wife, “Let Ben Jr. go get you some more flapjacks from the buffet. Those heatlamps look hot.” Either way, Sheets is injured. A few starts ago he complained of groin tightness. That was obviously bull–Sheets now is complaining of elbow pain. I’d make plans to be without Sheets and drop him if you need the roster room. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adam LaRoche/David Ortiz/Hunter Pence – Each with 2 HRs. In my barbecue grill’s vernacular, I’d say these players are HOO or Hot Off Off. I’m sure a lot of you wouldn’t mind a HOW or a WHO or even a WOW.

Edwin Encarnacion – Has pain in his wrist. Never a good place for a hitter to have pain. Also, now is the time of the year when people mysteriously sit out for a week even though they are only day-to-day. Yes, BJ Upton, I’m talking to you.

Hanley Ramirez - 2 HRs. Rejoice! Unfortunately, he came out of the game with shoulder soreness. Dejoice! Though he says he shouldn’t miss more than a game at most. Re-rejoice!

Brad Ziegler – Gave up his first major league home run, but his season ERA is only 0.82, which is actually bested by his teammate, Devine at 0.65. Incredible years these two are having. I think Devine’s going to be closing next year and Ziegler will be setting him up, but stay tuned.

Ty Wigginton – Finally was able to take some weight off his teammates and chip in an 0-for-4.

Cliff Lee – Didn’t have his best stuff, but before this bizarro season that would’ve meant he was rocked for ten runs. Instead he got hit around a little, but it wasn’t that awful and just missed recording his 23rd win.

Chone Figgins – Elbow pain from being hit by a pitch isn’t going away. He has no idea why. I have an idea; he weighs a buck-thirty soaking wet and he has skinny, granny bones. I’d expect the Angels to rest him right up until the playoffs.

Tony Peña – As of right now, Peña and Qualls are probably sharing closing duties. That’s if Qualls isn’t hiding an injury, which he might be because he should have been out there for the save last night. Stuck an nena on his en and called it macaroni…

Jeff Francis – Done for the year. Back date this to April.

Michael Young – Left the game yesterday because of pain in his fractured finger. He’s been trying to play through it to get to 200 hits. Don’t worry, Young, when it’s time, I’m sure the Hall of Fame committee will ignore your accomplishments either way.

Aaron Harang – Complete game shutout. Lots of offense all around baseball yesterday and Harang comes out smelling like roses. You say tomato, Harang says tomahto… You say elevator, Harang says lift…

Carlos Gomez – HR yesterday and now has 13 RBIs in the last 7 days. Watch CarGo go.

Brandon Knight – 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks. Gets out of KITT, throws a decent couple of innings, but is benefited by facing the Nots, then gets back in KITT and drives off.

Ryan Shealy – Of course he hit a home run. Was there any doubt he would hit one today?

Freddy Garcia – Yes, he looked fine tonight. Yes, he used to be decent. No, I don’t want any part of him. But he goes against the Royals next. Fine, in some deep leagues you can look.

Travis Hafner – HR yesterday. The Comatose Indians Fan can’t wait to see who the Indians are matching up with in the playoffs. Maybe the Tigers! Meanwhile, in Michigan, a young man wakes from a six month coma. He turns on Sportscenter to see the Tigers scored 17 runs with most of the runs coming from the bottom of the order. “They are just like the ‘27 Yanks!” Comatose Tigers Fan can’t wait to see his team beat the Yankees in the playoffs.

James ‘Dr. Freeze’ Andrews – bah!  Not when Canada’s finest caribou and shoulder surgeon can do it on the Canadian dime (worth $.09). Erik Bedard will go under the knife for what they are calling exploratory surgery. How appropriate for a pitcher that shares his name with a Viking. Hopefully, it turns out as well as Carlos Silva’s trip to the doctor when his rectal bleeding was diagnosed as his body repelling the massive amounts of salsa he’s eaten throughout the season. Stay tuned, this surgery could effect Bedard’s 2009. The USS Mariner has already sunk, and now they have to start worrying about next year being lost to sea. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Volstad – 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER. The Astros quadrupled their hit total of the last two games. Zoinks!

Asdrubal Cabrera – HR yesterday. Since I told you to pickup Asdrubal, he continues to be productive.

Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter threw eight innings of three hit baseball against the Rays. Encouraging sign going forward or he just likes facing the Rays? You make the call!

Shaun Marcum – Left the start with forearm numbness. Drop him. He’s done.

Fernando Tatis – Done for the year with a separated shoulder. Right now his mom must be a praying Tatis — oofa!

Ryan Shealy – Don’t skim past this name. HR yesterday and… I see you skimming. Stop! He has five home runs in the last four games. Ride the hot streak.

CC Sabathia/Prince Fielder – CC finally got his first loss.  Fielder finally is on a roll again hitting 2 HRs.  Can’t you see – it’s a see-saw.  Only one can be high at a time.

Fernando Rodney – Blew a 2 run-lead in the 9th without registering an out.  It’s become so commonplace for him to blow saves that we call Kazaam whenever he comes in.  Because if he’s pitching, it’s automatically going to be a non-save situation for the Tigers.

Todd Jones – We miss you.

Dan Haren – Nothing like pitching against SF to right the ship.  9 IP, 0 ER, 12 Ks.  The Giant offense is the equivalent of a rebound fuck….

Matt Cain – 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER. After struggling for a little over a month, just needed to face the Diamondbacks to look decent. Still wouldn’t trust him going forward.

James Parr – 4 1/3 innings, 4 earned runs and 10 hits as Parr hit a bogey.

Brandon Morrow – 4 IP, 6 ER. What frustrates me further, I told everyone not to go near him when he returned. Then he threw a great game against the Yankees and seemed to be properly stretched out. Surprise, he’s not.

Derek Lowe – Since an awful May, he’s been amazing.  127 IP, 11 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.02 WHIP.  With his sinker working so well, Torre was tempted to call him White Wang, but that name’s already taken by someone in nearby San Fernando Valley.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame has spent an unhealthy amount of time identifying the best fantasy seasons, careers, statistics, All Stars, and Hall of Famers of the fantasy era. As mentioned ad nauseam, the fantasy era began in 1980, and thus many great players of the 1980’s fall just short of enshrinement since their careers commenced in 1979 or earlier. This, along with the fact it’s just plain fun, has led us down the path of looking back in time, decade by decade, for the best fantasy players. We’ll be following a logical, reverse chronological order, starting with the 1970s.

“Stars of the 1970’s Who Missed FBHOF Enshrinement Due to 1979 Cutoff”

The 1970s provided fans a different brand of baseball than we’re accustomed too today. In the early part of the decade, the frequency of the stolen base was below what we even see today, but by the latter portion of the decade, stealing increased dramatically and kicked off the a mini-era where were the steal valued highly. This eventually led to the famous 1980’s St. Louis Cardinal teams that stole seemingly at will. In 1985 Willie McGee, Terry Pendleton, Ozzie Smith, Andy Van Slyke each stole at least 30 and Vince Coleman reached 110.

On the other hand, there were relatively more home runs hit in the 1970s than the 1980s. As an example, players hit 40 or more home runs 20 times in the 1970s vs. just 13 in the 1980’s (the 1990s had 72, but that is beside the point). Contrarily, batting averages have risen steadily each decade, after the league average bottomed out at .244 in 1972.

This chart depicts what was just mentioned – the Major League Batting average year by year, as well as the frequency in HR’s and SB’s in the form of “per at bat’ stats:

Let’s take a moment to ground us on the scoring tiers we saw during the Fantasy Era.

• 90+ Points: Only two players have ever amassed 90 or more FBHOF points: Randy Johnson and Barry Bonds
• 80-89 Points: 7 Players are in this grouping, think Roger Clemens
• 70-79 Points: 15 players score in this bucket, the most common. Think of them as the average FBHOF’er – Ryne Sandberg, Jeff Bagwell, and Curt Schilling types.
• 65-69 Points: 12 Players. The low-enders such as Don Mattingly and Jose Canseco
• 52-64 Points: Only pitchers can score as low as 52 and get elected, David Cone is a great example

70 Pointers
78.8 – Jim Rice, OF
73.7 – George Brett, 3B
70.8 – George Foster, OF

Rice is close to being an inner circle, elite FBHOF’er. He finished first among batters in 1978 and 1979, and finished in the Top-5 in 1977 and 1983. He was a monster at the plate reaching 39 or more home runs 4 times and 125+ RBI three times. He also hit for average, topping out at .325 in 1979. His 1978 season is the 3rd best we’ve seen tod date, a wonderful 18.5 point juggernaut campaign. He batted .315 with 121 R, 46 HR, 139 RBI, and 7 SB. He also has a total of seven 11+ FBHOF point seasons, which is tied for 10th all time.

With an excellent 3-year peak of 14 FBHOF points, Brett was an easy choice for ‘induction’. His average line during these three years was .347, 105 R, 26 HR, 112 RBI, 14 SB – great numbers for a third basemen of the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. He is however, not nearly as good as Rice was at his peak. Brett does have an incredible twenty fantasy worthy seasons in is career, 4th best from 1970 or later.

Best known for his 1977 season of 52 HR and 149 RBI, Foster also put up great numbers in 1976, 1978, and 1981 giving him a 4 year peak score of 14.7. His 5th year is lacking considerably though, and greatly diminishes his overall FBHOF score. Foster was great three times and better than average three more times.

60 Pointers
69.5 – Nolan Ryan
69.2 – Dave Winfield
68.4 – Cecil Cooper
67.8 – Dwight Evans
67.7 – Reggie Jackson

The Ryan Express ranks as the 8th best starting pitcher in the last 40-odd years. This is likely better than most would rate him for non-fantasy purposes, but Ryan had ten 8+ FBHOF point seasons – 10th best among all players, and 4th best among pitchers. Year in and year out his strike out totals were off the charts, which off-set some of the seasons his WHIP or Win totals were only ordinary. He never had a monster fantasy season, his value was in consistency: 20 seasons of double digit wins; 8 seasons of 15+ wins; 12 seasons with WHP’s better than 1.25; 8 seasons with sub-3.00 ERA’s; and 6 seasons of 300+ strikeouts. He finished as a Top-10 pitcher ten times, but never rated best in any single season

Winfield is much like Evans, but with a longer peak as evidenced by putting their career scores side by side – Winfield kept it up a while longer.

Reggie Jackson is someone we need to spend some time on. Jackson was one of baseball’s premier sluggers, belting 25 or more thirteen times. He was also a solid RBI man, averaging 103 per season during his 5 year peak. What too many people forget was his speed. Mr. October averaged 20 steals a season for the first 8 years of his career, topping out at 28 in 1976. Because of this, his best two fantasy seasons came prior to his famous 41 HR year of 1980:

1973: .293 with 99 R, 32 HR, 117 RBI, 22 SB
1974: .289 with 90 R, 29 HR, 93 RBI, 24

While never the best fantasy player in a given year, he does have four Top-10 finishes among batters, and five Top-5 appearances among outfielders.

Cooper has already gotten quite a bit of press for a non-Hall of Famer, and deservedly so.

50 Pointers
57.8 – Bert Blyleven
56.2 – Ron Guidry
56.1 – Don Sutton

Each were very good though none reached the dominance of Nolan Ryan. Blyleven has five Top-10 finishes to his credit; Guidry four; and Sutton six. Only Guidry reached #1 pitcher status after winning 25 with a 0.95 WHIP, 1.74 ERA, and 248 K’s in 1978. His 18.0 FBHOF Points ranks 6th best to date.

“Other FBHOF Worthy Players”
Fourteen other players would be in the FBHOF had the 1970’s counted. This group wasn’t at the top of their games during any extended portion of the 1980s, and it’s easier to justify their exclusion. However, there are some truly great ones from the 1970s, beginning with Joe Morgan.

Morgan’s 88.1 FBHOF Score is 4th best all time, and his peak score of 80.1 is 3rd best. He was an incredible second basemen hit for average, power, and had great speed. He nabbed the Top-2B award every year from 1971 to 1977, also finished 1st among all batters three times in 1972, and 1975-1976. His peak year was 1976 where he amassed 18.4 FBHOF points, 4th best we’ve seen. He batted .320 with 113 R, 27 HR, 111 RBI, and 60 SB. His 5-year peak average is wonderful: .303, 113 R, 22 HR, 85 RBI, and 62 SB, all from a second basemen.

To put his greatness into perspective, here are his scores during his 7-year run as the best second basemen in comparison to the next best. Not only was Morgan great, he was in a class all to himself.:

Tom Seaver rates as the 6th best fantasy pitcher ever. He was the #1 starter three times and in the Top-10 nine times. Seaver never reached 300 strikeouts as some of his predecessors (such as Steve Carlton and Sandy Koufax) but he was remarkably consistent and first-rate in his rate stats: a sub-3.00 ERA nine times and a sub-1.15 WHIP eight times. And it’s not as if he couldn’t strike people out – he struck out more than 7 _ batters per inning nine times and averaged 252 per season during his 5-year peak.

Here are the rest of the 1970’s players who racked up enough points to be FBHOF worthy:

Lastly, there are two other current FBHOF’ers that saw their final scores rocket into elite stratosphere once the 1970’s counted. Mike Schmidt ended his career with an official tally of 70.5 FBHOF points, good, but nowhere need great. Three monster seasons were omitted from his record though:

These three seasons raised his final FBHOF score from 70.5 to 83.8.

Steve Carlton is in a similar situation. At the tail end of his career, the left-hander pieced together a few good seasons to sneak is as a FBHOF’er. Taking his career in total though, he’s a shoe-in, and one of just four pitchers to record two seasons of 17+ FBHOF points. The season left off his Fantasy record? His best ever, in 1972: 27 W, 0.99 WHIP, 1.97 ERA, 310 K.

The FBHOF will have more on the 1970s in coming weeks.