Fantasy Baseball Advice

I was trying to think of things that are as boring and meaningless as spring training, but are extremely exciting because their conclusion signifies the start of something great. Immediately I thought of breast implants, because that’s what I immediately think of for everything. Then I tried to think of actual analogies. Political campaigns are beyond boring, but meaningless? Maybe, I guess. Michael Clayton was boring and meaningless, and exciting because I was able to get out of theater when it ended, but it didn’t lead to anything wonderful except an Auntie’s Anne’s cinnamon-sugar pretzel. Oh, well. I’m at a lost. Maybe one of you readers can think of something (I’m actually positive Rudy Gamble will think of an analogy). Until then, let’s run down some more players to look out for in Spring Training.

Jeremy Sowers – Finished strong in his final Triple A games last year (4-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his final nine starts) and now does battle with Cliff Lee and Aaron Laffey for the final spot in the Indians rotation. Sowers is a talented young kid and the Indians’ fifth starter will have value, whoever ends up with the nod.

Evan Longoria – Last year, I watched Ryan Braun in spring training and made sure I got him in a keeper league (only to lose him during the season, but that’s another story). This spring watch Evan Longoria. All indications point to him being the Rays’ opening day third basemen, so try and watch how good he is at reading pitches in spring training to see if you want to invest in him at your draft.

Kosuke Fukudome – A) You want to see how he looks against major league pitching to avoid an Iwamura disaster (BTW, Iwamura isn’t half as bad at 2nd base. Actually, he’s exactly as bad, but it’s a better position to draft him for. B) You want to see if he’s playing center at all, cause if he’s there and Pie’s on the bench then Murton gets a shot (finally!). Murton has a lot of talent, hopefully he can find some place to play this year. Redheads guys aren’t cute, but what is being done to Murton is a disgrace.

Michael Barrett – It’s been written here before how the town bully (Big Z) pantsed Barrett in front of the whole world and he never recovered even after moving to a new town. But if Barrett can get hot and Bard slumps in spring training, Barrett could be a great draftable 2nd catcher.

Chase Headley – Sticking with the Padres theme, watch Chase catch fire in the spring and he will have to at least be drafted in keeper leagues. Watch Edmonds get injured (it’s only a matter of time) and Chase could reposition himself in the outfield and be a huge sleeper.

Friends are going to spring training in Arizona this year and I was invited. Intrasquad games and closers coming in for the third inning? I took a pass. The only thing exciting about spring training is its conclusion. Nevertheless, there are some things to keep an eye out for while continuing to catch every episode of the RR/RW Challenge: The Gauntlet. (BTW, The show is an hour now, but I almost wish it were only a half hour so there would be twice as many episodes. Talk about bittersweet. Loved how Danny was happy his wife, Melinda, got a concussion so she wouldn’t be vulnerable for elimination. That’s love!)

Felipe Lopez – It’s official; Felipe Lopez slept with Manny Acta’s wife. Last year, he refused to play small ball and it cost Felipe Lopez (as Gollum would say) precious steals. This year, Acta announced Ronnie Belliard would be the 2nd baseman and Cristian Guzman would be the shortstop, leaving Lopez on the bench. I don’t think highly of Felipe Lopez, but saying Cristian Guzman is a poor man’s Felipe Lopez is an insult to poor men everywhere. Watch to see if Felipe can get off the bench and in the lineup somewhere because he could be a bargain if he’s taken in the final rounds. Cristian Guzman’s going to suck and stink, but he won’t stick.

Cubs Closer – Marmol, Howry or Wood? Wood, Marmol or Howry? Hell if I know. My guess is Howry because Piniella’s got a thing for the proven and Howry’s the closest thing to proven. If you had ESPN Deportes, you saw Marmol be lights out in the Caribbean Series for his DR team. Wood can be lights out. Whichever way this goes, you need to know.

Dave Roberts – You’re rooting for him to perform badly in spring training so Fred Lewis (potential steals) or Nate Schierholtz (potential power) get a chance. If it makes you feel any better rooting for the end to Roberts, keep telling yourself he had a nice career. (Sure, it would be a lie, but whatever. If you can’t lie to yourself, who can you lie to?)

Colby Rasmus – In his Double A debut, .275/.381/.551 with 29 home runs, 37 doubles and 18 stolen bases. Could he unseat Ryan Ludwick in rightfield? I think sooner rather than later, but it may not be as early as this spring training. He will probably take over sometime this year though, so keeper owners need to have Rasmus on the brain at draft time.

The entire Oakland A’s lineup – You need to see who is batting and where, especially in AL-only leagues. If Cust is cleanup and Chavez is batting third, then they need to be drafted in mixed leagues. Barton batting second? Might not be bad to take a flier. Chris Denorfia is going to be entering that magical 27 year-old year. (And, yes, that is the only time magical and Chris Denorfia will ever be in the same sentence.) He’s considered to be the frontrunner for centerfield and could potentially give you 10/20 numbers with a .280 in a full season of at-bats. “Could” is the key word.

Tomorrow, I’ll look at some more spring training battles.

2008 Spring Training is here. Pitchers and catchers and even some “out to prove something” players are already reporting. It’s a glorious time when absolutely nothing matters. If Pujols strikes out fifty consecutive times in spring training, he can go on to win the MVP. Or maybe he’ll carry that into the season and have an atrocious April. Either way, you can’t tell from spring training. It’s an exhibition. Got that? Good. Okay, time to contradict myself. Here’s some things that actually do matter in spring training:

Jay Bruce vs. Ryan Freel – Don’t think Freel’s going to lose this one. Bruce has hit everywhere he’s been. Rocketing through the minors, but he’s still extremely young. But Josh Hamilton won the starting centerfield job last spring, so you never know. Then again, Dusty’s in town. Bruce is headed for Triple A; you still watch. See what all the hype is about.

Mike Hampton – He can’t strikeout anyone, probably nothing but an innings eater at this stage in his career, but the Braves say he’s their number starter. I say he hasn’t pitched since 2005. This is something to watch in NL-only leagues if for no other reason than to see if Jair Jurrjens gets a chance. Remember every pitcher gets drafted in NL-only, why not grab one on a team that should have a winning record.

Carlos Quentin – He’s already reported to spring training and he wants to play. Shoulder’s said to be healed; hopefully his OBP will be, as well. Throw last year away, it wasn’t indicative of his promise. Why you’re watching? See if he gets the job. Outfield got crowded with Pretty Boy Swisher.

CJ Wilson – It’s being reported that he’s the team’s closer. Saves are predictably saves, so if it’s Wilson, he must be drafted.

Zach Greinke – Harnessing his demons and his fastball towards the end of last year proved fruitful. He’s still only 24.

Pedro Martinez – He’s already reported to spring training and he’s already talking. He insists that his incredible steriods’ era numbers were un-enhanced. Good for Pedro. He’s still old and his body’s frail. Check to see how he looks this spring. He might be a steal on a team that will win a lot of games. Just keep expectations in check – i.e. 150 innings is a gift.

Will be back tomorrow with more things that matter in spring training when nothing matters.

Let me start by saying, I received an email from Rudy Gamble saying we should do a feature where we breakdown the Philly infield – like a point/counterpoint. I said — Ok, point/counterpoint needs controversy, where’s the controversy with the Philly infield? Feels kinda obvious. Then he emailed me saying we should do a feature where we breakdown the Philly infield and he’d use his newfangled player rater that he put together with a calculator. I see. He’s trying to make me look bad. First, I need to point something out; the calculator is a fairly new invention. Sure, the abacus as been around the block, but who uses an abacus? Babylonians. And what happened to the Babylonians? I think Prince dated one once. Other than that, Babylonians are bubkus. There’s surely not too many Babylonians playing fantasy baseball. So, with that said, if you want the Philly infield the non-scientific way, look at my fantasy projections. If you want scientific and/or you are a Babylonian, scroll down to Rudy’s.

Grey Albright:

1. Chase Utley – He’s the cheese and Rollins is the macaroni. If I could reinvent myself in someone’s image, I’d choose Chase. Hey, that’s got a good ring, Choose Chase. He should run for Philly mayor using that slogan. Right now, he’d win. This is a no-brainer for me. 2nd base is the toughest position to fill in fantasy where you need some value (Catcher is the hardest, but you can do workarounds there.). In an abbreviated ‘07, he still gave you 1st round numbers. Here’s what I said in the top ten overall in fantasy baseball post, “Weak position, monster lineup, great ability, fierce determination. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12.” I stand by those numbers, but that was before Feliz. With the addition of Feliz, subtract five runs.

2. Jimmy Rollins – Philly’s a racist town. Rollins won the MVP and yet he doesn’t see the love like Chase. That’s facts, man. And it’s depressing me. But what’s it doing to J. Roll? Will this make Rollins better or worse? Will Rollins tie his cornrows tighter and play with even more determination? J. Roll seems like he’s that type. To let it roll (pun intended, but still bad) off his shoulders and play even harder, but can he? I’m not so sure. Here’s what I wrote on the top twenty overall post, “…his thirty home runs were the best of his career and now he’s going to be 30 years old in 2008. So if someone else takes him earlier, c’est la vie. Yes, that may be the only time c’est la vie has ever been written in a fantasy baseball blog. Projections: 130/22/70/35/.290.” I stand by those numbers, but with Feliz’s addition you have to subtract five runs and RBIs.

3. Ryan Howard – He’s a monster, probably will lead the majors in homers and could easily beat either Utes or Rolls in a game of “I will eat seven pounds of hamburger meat quicker than you.” He’s below Chase and Jimmy simply because the 1st base position is easier to fill with a heavyweight (I think this is a pun, too, and I apologize.) Back in January, I said his projections would be: 100/50/140/.275. With the addition of freakin’ Feliz, drop ten runs and five RBIs.

4. Pedro Feliz – I got one nice thing to say about Feliz, at least he’s not David Bell. The albatross hanging around the Phillies’s neck is third base, but it doesn’t need to be your burden. Pedro Feliz will kill your morale and you’ll end up muttering to yourself on a street corner. Write this on your fantasy cheatsheet, “Stay Away From Pedro Feliz.” Projections: 65/22/85/.245 so unless you’re drafting Ichiro, an ’07 Magglio Ordonez and a ’94 Tony Gwynn, “Stay Away from Pedro Feliz.” You’re welcome.

Rudy Gamble:

Welcome to our first edition of Point/Counterpoint. Grey (the guy who writes most of the posts) and I tend to have different approaches when ranking/judging players so we thought this might prove to be interesting. When we do agree on fantasy baseball, it tends to be either wise (Peavy will have a great 2007!), obvious (Reyes will steal a lot of SB in 2007!), or a harbinger of a roto-disaster (how can Jason Schmidt fail in LA!).

Anyway, without further ado, your very own Phillies infield, America!

4. Pedro Feliz – Signing this guy to a two-year contract drew the ire of some prognosticators. A naïve student of the game might look at the progression of Philly 3B over the years (Schmidt, Rolen, David Bell, Pedro Feliz – with some Dave Hollins, Wes Helms, and Charlie Hayes along the way) and see it as an insult to the Philly fan. On the contrary, Philly fans love to hate their 3B and welcome any justification to do so. Hating Schmidt – perhaps the best 3B of all time – took a lot of effort. Hating Rolen was slightly easier and seems prescient now that he ran himself out of St. Louis. But Pedro Feliz – jeez, you can find so much not to like. I don’t think he makes my top 30 3Bs. The weakest member of a quartet since Ringo Starr. (note: Pedro Feliz = Peter Happy. All he’s missing is Jeff Kent’s pornstache and he’s ready to bang. Best baseball player porn name since Kazuhito Tadano).

3. Ryan Howard – My projected MLB HR leader (47 HRs) and a top 5 finisher in RBIs (130 RBI). But aside from slightly above average run production, not much else from the big man. I have no problem drafting a HR/RBI guy in later rounds if you need power but in the 1st/2nd round, your only need is to draft the best overall player. I project the average 1B to hit .286 – Howard is projected at around .273. That’s roughly the value equivalent of removing 4 HR or 15 RBIs. Add no SBs and it makes him a 2 ½ stat player which gets him an early 3rd round value in my book (where he’ll be already off the board in all drafts) and a #3 ranking in the Philly infield. (note: Ever notice that Ryan Howard is also the name of the white intern-promoted-to-boss on ‘The Office’? It’s set in the Philly suburb of Scranton. Not one joke about it? I enjoy it when people of different races have the same name – gives me the warm and fuzzies. I wait for the day when a white, black, latino, and an asian baseball player all share the same name. All we need is an Asian Lee in the majors to make it happen on the last name (Cliff Lee – White, Derrek Lee – Black, Carlos Lee – Latino). If only Sang-Hoon Lee had panned out…)

Now for the tough one – Utley or Rollins. I think they are close enough in value that taking one ahead of the other wouldn’t qualify as a blunder. Position scarcity doesn’t play a role here – the only difference I see in 2B and SS projections are that SS has better SBs. Otherwise, you’re looking at about 15 players in each position that’ll average about 85/18/72/.283. Both players project about the same for runs. Utley has more value at HR, RBI, and AVG. Rollins has more value on SBs. I’ve got Utley’s HR/RBI advantage equaling Rollins SB advantage (will explain more in upcoming Player Rater just how) so Utley’s better AVG puts him over the top. Maybe they’ll let him win the MVP this year to set the record for the most consecutive MVPs on a team averaging less than 90 wins.

2. Jimmy Rollins (early 2nd round value)

1. Chase Utley (late 1st round value)

First off, you’re welcome. We put the “Thank you” in your mouth because you were too proud to say it. How did we know you were thinking it? Cause you’re a fantasy baseball nutjob, just like us. We appreciate you here. So much so, we’ve covered the 2008 fantasy baseball draft lists for every single position. Eat them with a slice of humble pie:

• Top Twenty Catchers
• Top Twenty 1st Base
• Top Twenty 2nd Base
• Top Twenty 3rd Base
• Top Twenty Shortstops
• Top Twenty Outfielders
• Top Twenty Starting Pitchers
• Top Twenty Closers
• Top Hundred Overall

Here’s our 2007 Player Rater for some prospective. One of these days, Rudy Gamble will get around to doing our 2008 Player Rater. When? When he’s finished combing CHONE, ZIPS, PECOTA, ROTOWORLD and ROTOWIRE, that’s when.