Fantasy Baseball Advice

You’re so lucky there’s an extra day in February or this post would have had to wait until March. We’ve already ran through the rest of the top outfielders for 2008. Today we look at the rest of the top pitchers. These are the pitchers that I usually draft. I love Peavy and Santana this year, but I won’t have them, unless they fall to me. By fall, I mean late second round. They’ll be lots of value from them, but pitching is too unpredictable and way too easy to patch together decent enough stats. If you draft Santana with your first round pick, who will be your second pick Carlos Lee? Mark Teixeira? Eh, these names don’t excite me enough in the 2nd round to forgo a hitter in the first. I’d prefer to take a Verlander/Haren-type a little later on.  Solid number one starter, but not a first rounder. Anyway, if you want to look at the 2008 Player Rater that was put together by our very own, Rudy Gamble; click here. If you’d like to look at the top twenty projections for every other position; click here. Now, without further ado, your top starting pitching for 2008, rankings 21-40.

21. Javier Vazquez – Vazquez had the best ’07 season you didn’t know about. (If you did know, then jump ahead, I wouldn’t want to bore you.) 3.74/1.14 with over 200 Ks in ’07. He finally returned to his former Montreal glory. And, yes, that is the only time Montreal and glory have ever been used in a sentence. Projections: 17-7/3.50/1.15/200

22. Scott Kazmir – Purposely left Kazmir off my top twenty, cause I don’t want any starter sporting a high WHIP. Now there’s word that he has arm problems. That article is a press release filled with optimism. Aside, aren’t all injury articles press releases? Aren’t you sick of this? Reporter, “How does the arm feel?” Athlete, “It’s a little sore, but I’m going to be fine. The doctor said that I should be back on the field in seven to ten days.” Is there anyone left that speaks the truth? Stop with the press-release tone! But I digress. Maybe Kazmir’s injury is nothing, but here’s something, why would you risk it? Pitchers with arm problems in spring training are a caution flag. Do yourself a favor, don’t draft a pitcher with a spring training arm injury. Projections: 14-8/3.75/1.30/210

23. Daisuke Matsuzaka – His division is ridunkiculous with offense. The last pitcher I drafted from the AL East in any league, I believe, was Roy Halladay in ’06 and that turned out vaguely crappy. If you can get excited about Dice-K, I’m assuming you’re a Son of Sam Horn messageboard poster. His best quality (which, all snark aside, is actually a really good quality) is his durability. Projections: 17-7/4.00/1.25/200

24. A.J. Burnett – I know; I keep preaching safety first. Avoid injury problems. Yes. And that’s true. But this whole next tier of pitchers has question marks. A.J. is the most predictable when he’s healthy and even his injuries are predictable. There’s safety in that. Projections: 14-8/3.85/1.20/170

25. Brett Myers – I’m not too concerned about the inexplicable bullpen move last year. Can’t be great for his arm to go from 200 innings to 100 back to 200, but Myers seems like too much of a total doucebag to let it bother him too much. Maybe he slows down in August, but by then you’re trucking towards first place and there’s some spectacular call-up that can replace him for a start or two or three. Myers has my full endorsement. Projections: 16-7/3.75/1.28/175

26. Pedro Martinez – It’s with great regret that Pedro places no higher than 26th. He was absolutely incredible when I was in my twenties and now, well, we’re both getting old. I miss the old Pedro like I miss the old me, or the newer me. Alas… Projections:12-5/3.30/1.15/160 in 140 innings/24 starts.

25. Francisco Liriano – Heffin’ hey, he’s back! At least according to the stock press release-type articles being written. I’m not drafting Liriano in any league. It’s too fast, too soon. If you’re feeling lucky go to Vegas, if you want to play fantasy baseball, skip Liriano. Projections: 10-3/3.15/1.05/150 in 120 innings/20 starts.

26. Yovani Gallardo – I’ve detailed how you should avoid 2nd year players if at all possible (hitters or pitchers). YoGa has a good offensive team behind him or I would have clumped him down with Lincecum. (Instead, Lincecum will be clumped with Sheets. Which we’ll get to, sorry, I was being premature.)  Projections: 14-8/3.50/1.20/180

27. Ian Snell – I enjoyed a good season from Ian Snell last year, but, no matter how it played out, he always got a little roughed up. Whether it was Paulino dropping a pop-up or if he gave up a home run, Snell got rattled. He’s another year older and I think he can get better in ’08. I’d draft him with confidence. Projections: 12-9/3.60/1.20/200

28. Chien-ming Wang – Wang’s even a little too safe/unexciting for me. It’s hard to find fault with drafting him. He proved last year he doesn’t need to strikeout hitters to be effective. I do kinda worry when someone can’t strikeout someone out, but wins are wins and his ratios aren’t bad. Projections: 18-8/3.75/1.25/100

29. Tim Hudson – Boring, right? Yeah, he is a boring pick. Boring wins titles! Besides, I wouldn’t draft the next three pitchers on any team. Projections: 15-8/3.70/1.25/135

30. Matt Cain – Yes, he’s the opposite of boring, but his team’s offensive standout is Aaron Rowand.  His stuff is filthy; I’ll give you that. His division’s All-Stars probably would lose at least one game to the Taiwanese Little League team. His ballpark is ideal for a pitcher. Yet, he has too many games where he gives up six runs in five innings. He’s young still and he walks too many people. Maybe next year… Projections: 11-9/3.90/1.30/190

31. Tim Lincecum – Tim over at Roto Authority has a man crush on Lincecum like I have on Michael J. Fox. I think you’re asking for trouble if you draft Lincecum. As is my policy, second year players provide too much risk.  Taking a second year player on the worst offensive team is additional risk. Will he try to do too much? Will hitters catch up to him? Let it play out on someone else’s team. Projections: 10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170

32. Ben Sheets – Ugh, I wanted to just leave him off the list to prove a point, but he’s got great stuff. Unfortunately, you can’t draft him. He’ll make you miserable. If anything, let someone else draft him, then, after the second injury, trade Nick Punto for him and hope for a good September. Projections: 60-Day DL

33./34. Derek Lowe/Brad Penny  – See Hudson, Tim. (I could see one of you schmohawks commenting below that Lowe/Penny doesn’t get enough Ks to win titles or something like that. Penny/Lowe’s your third starter. Try and draft safety with your third starter and you’ll be in the hunt for a title in September. Draft Lincecum with your third starter and you’ll be in fifth place wondering where you went wrong.) (Penny note: I’m aware of his splits, but simply trade or apply caution in the second half.) Projections for both: 15-7/3.90/1.30/140

35. Ted Lilly – I almost tossed Lilly into my Penny/Lowe daily double, but he doesn’t have the advantageous pitcher’s park. Not to mention, there’s no weather in LA, when Wrigley’s blowing out, you want no part of any pitcher. That’s a headache I try to avoid. Projections: 16-8/4.20/1.20/160

36. Chad Billingsley – While your leaguemates are drafting Lincecum and Cain, I give you my approval to draft Chad late. He’s young and he’s a bit wild. Two things I usually avoid, but his team will be a lot better than the ‘Aints. That’s a confidence builder. With Grady Little, one of the worst managers of all-time (him and Jim Tracy were vying for top spot) gone, there’s reason to think Torre’s inheriting a future Cy Young. I’m thinking it, at least. 16-7/3.20/1.30/190 in a 180 innings/27 starts

37. Kelvim Escobar – I see Kelvim turning up on a lot of draft rankings for 2008. Yeah, see, the thing is, he’s missing all of April. That’ll turn into the All-Star Break, then he’ll return in August for the stretch run. Pretend like you have an idea of the haps and don’t draft him. Projections: Nothing yet, but maybe I’ll remind you in August to pick him up. If you’re good…

38. Adam Wainwright – Perfect example of why you avoid 2nd year players. His 1st half  was horrendous. Unusable. His 2nd half was great. I know he’s not as exciting as Cain or Lincecum but here’s someone who can actually help your team. Projections: 12-7/3.20/1.30/160

39/40. Phillip Hughes/Homer Bailey – Just give them a year. That’s all I’m asking. They might be good, but you don’t want any part of the other side of the coin and you have to draft them too early. Wait, ‘til next year and everyone’s excitement for these two is gone, then pounce. I repeat:  They might be good. The problem is they might be bad. If you want risk, have casual sex with a prostitute. Projections: 12-7/4.00/1.30/140

Your Bonus, you’re welcome:

41. Dontrelle Willis – Usually when pitchers go from the NL to the AL, their value takes a hit (literally!), but Dontrelle’s got some things going for him. His delivery is convoluted, he’ll have lots more run support and he won’t have to worry about hitting anymore. That last one seems like a bad joke, but he really did take his hitting seriously, a little too seriously, to the point I’d wonder if he cared more about that than pitching. I could see Willis getting back some value he’s lost over the last two seasons. Just don’t expect pre-06 numbers. Projections: 16-9/4.15/1.35/180

Baseball has fascinated me for as far back as I can remember, and even though I don’t recall it well, I still love the fact the first game I ever attended was the infamous Pine Tar incident. My father tells the story wonderfully – about being right behind the dugout with his two young sons, of the home run that larger than life Dave Winfield hit that seemingly never rose more than 6 feet off the ground, and most incredibly, having the infamous Yankee manager Billy Martin, stroll out of the dugout, turn to look at the crowd, directly at us, and smile an all-knowing smile before inciting one of the strangest endings to a game in any sport, at any time.

Let’s look back on the situation in order to get into the mind of Martin at the time:

- The Yankees and Kansas City Royals were two of the biggest rivals in sports in the early 1980’s, and each had been at or near the top of their divisions for the previous few years.

- The Yanks knocked the Royals out of the playoffs in 1976, 1977, and 1978.

- The Royals returned the favor in 1980.

- These teams hated each other, and the fans of each felt exactly the same way.

Now fast forward to the summer 1983 with both squads fighting for a playoff spot, each just 2 games behind the division leaders. The Royals have lost the first two games of a three game set and are down by a run heading into the last inning. Journeyman Dale Murray is cruising along in relief, holding the Royal bats at bay for 3-plus innings. Of course, every last person in the park knows that the most feared reliever in the history of the sport is waiting to get into the game at a moments notice, ready to quash any life left in the visiting Royals.

It takes just two pitches for Murray to retire the first two batters of the inning, removing virtually all hope of a Royals victory. Funny thing about baseball though. There is no clock; the only way to end the game is to get beat, on the field, after a thrown pitch. Sure enough, UL Washington, he of the .233 batting average, finds a way to get on base with a well placed single to center field.

This stroke of luck allows one of the most famous batter-pitcher match-ups of all time to take place. The 2-out base hit brought George Brett to the plate – a first ballot Hall of Famer for his on the field skills, and no doubt a would be first ballot inductee to the hall of wearing your heart on your sleeve. This was the epitome of a ‘classic confrontation’ taking place in front of 35,000 fans on what was a perfect Sunday afternoon for baseball. (Trying to calculate the odds of it being 71 degrees, in the Bronx, during the heart of the dog-days of summer, makes one believe that a higher power exists).

Sure enough Brett drilled the first pitch, a 98 mile per hour fastball, deep towards the left field stands for what would give the Royals a 5-4 lead. But it’s foul. All of Yankeeland breathes a huge sigh of relief. The next pitch was identical, but Brett was ready for it and pulled the bullet high and far well beyond the right field fence for what could be the game winning home run. Before Brett could even make it around to home plate, out of the dugout strode Billy Martin. Martin of course, was probably a lunatic, but that didn’t prevent him from triumphing this day, if only temporarily. As I mentioned, before reaching the top step, Martin turned toward the crowd behind the 1st base dugout and smiled, a grin that eliminates all doubt, and then proceeds to saunter out to the Home Plate umpire.

Nobody in attendance had a clue what Martin was doing – it was a completely clean play with no apparent breaking of the rules in question. Brett stood in the dugout watching and wondering what home plate umpire Tim McLelland and Martin could be discussing. Martin then requested that Brett’s bat be examined, and, after laying the bat across home plate, McLelland took a few steps towards the Royal dugout and signaled that Brett was now out.

Pandemonium.

If you are not familiar with the rule: the bat handle, for not more than 18 inches from the end, may be covered or treated with any material or substance to improve the grip. Any such material or substance, which extends past the 18-inch limitation, shall cause the bat to be removed from the game. Of course, this had no bearing on Brett’s home run as pine tar19 inches up the bat handle has absolutely no effect at free swinging batter, it was originally in the rules for bunting purposes.

Now, ask yourself the following question – could this scenario have played out in any other sport?

- No other sport could ever see a manager, who had just lost the game for all intents and purposes, slowly and confidently walk to the umpiring crew and turn the game upside down.

- No other sport has its fans so close to the action, so much so that they could feel like the coach looked directly at their own eyes and smiled.

- No other sport allows the game to be suspended in time, like the few minutes Martin and McClelland conversed, with everyone present watching, just those two, waiting for the outcome to mystery.

- Martin had known of the pine tar problem with Brett’s bat for at least several weeks, but was saving that information for a ‘special occasion’. This is just not plausible for the likes of the NFL, NBA, or NHL.

- Finally, no other sport allows a conversation between his father and sons to take place so often, but never grow stale or tiresome.

Baseball bridges the gap between generations. It has existed in basically the form we see today since the late 1800s. Forget sports, what other aspect of American life can this be said to be true? A great quote from Ken Burns “Baseball” says all you need to know:

It is played everywhere. In parks and playgrounds and prison yards. In back alleys and farmers’ fields. By small children and old men. Raw amateurs and millionaire professionals. It is a leisurely game that demands blinding speed. The only game in which the defense has the ball. It follows the seasons, beginning each year with the fond expectancy of springtime, and ending with the hard facts of autumn. It is a haunted game, in which every player is measured against the ghosts of all who have gone before. Most of all, it is about time and timelessness. Speed and grace. Failure and loss. Imperishable hope. And coming home.

Here’s the audio for the fantastic call of the Brett at bat made by the late, great, Phil Rizzuto. Part 1 and Part 2. (Complete with the word huckleberry, a 10ft leap by Don Mattingly, and more than one Holy Cow.)

With fantasy drafts approaching (some already taking place, it’s imperative we go over the rest of the top outfielders to draft this year in fantasy baseball. If you’re looking for the top twenty of every position for 2008, click here. While I’m admittedly a huge fan of Rudy Gamble’s 2008 player rater/projections tool, I go more on instinct. (BTW, I haven’t lost a league to Gamble since Britney Spears was (supposedly) a virgin. Natch!) So what follows is what will be happening in 2008 for these fantasy outfielders. Don’t believe me; lose your league. I’ll sleep fine.

21. Manny Ramirez – I’ve already written why he should be avoided; click here. People disputed me. People were wrong. When he was 32, his lovable laissez-faire attitude didn’t matter. As time catches up to him, he doesn’t have the work ethic to put up top twenty numbers. I know that reports suggest Manny’s in the best shape of his life. Reports last spring training suggested Jason Schmidt would be the NL Cy Young. I know about the contract. Um, Manny’s a zillionaire. Do you really think he wants to play 150 games this year so he can make twelve million rather than ten? How many Wiis does Many need? Listen, he’ll still be one of the more productive elder statesmen (Hey, Luis Gonzalez, how’s the elbow?), but keep expectations in check. Projections: 85/32/105/.315

22. Hunter Pence – I tend to steer clear of second year players. (Here’s why Ryan Braun will suck.) In the first year, no one knows how to get them out (or catch up to them, if they’re pitchers). In the second year, everyone has the batter or pitcher’s number. Now they must adjust. This ain’t foolproof here; Hanley adjusted well (though I am down on Hanley this year, which you can see here). I’m just saying there are plenty of outfielders, why not go the safe rather than sorry route? Hunter may be great, but you’re going to have to draft him pretty high to get him. Stop with your ADD and wait a year; see what happens. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17

23. Delmon Young – See Pence, Hunter. I actually like Young more than Pence. In the minors, he showed more potential. I think his ceiling is higher. So why is he below him? Why ask so many questions? The Twins might actually be worse offensively than the Astros. I know! Hard to bee-leave, right? Anyway, Young, Pence and Corey Hart (who placed 19th) are all very close. Corey Hart is on the best team offensively, Pence on the second best, Young third. See how that worked. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15

25. Hideki Matsui – Why should you draft Hideki? Cause he loves porn. Also, you don’t get much safer. Sure, he had some injury problems recently, but he’s over the wrist and the knee should be fine. Stop looking for an argument. Projections: 105/25/100/.295

26. Vernon Wells – About here is where the caveats begin. Let’s call this Tier: Caveat. Caveat #1, Vernon absolutely sucks for extended stretches. I’m not talking an oh for twenty stretch. He’s stayed in a flunk for whole seasons. Ugh, I kinda want Swisher more. But he’s got caveats too. Well, Wells will steal… Maybe. I am giddy for Alexis Rios (he will be this year’s Holliday) and just maybe Rios can make the difference in that Jays lineup. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7

27. Jeff Francoeur – Caveat #2, it’s obvious. But he’s still very young and he took almost double the amount of walks last year (I know, double of nothing is still nothing. Cute.). Very solid lineup around him (barring injury to Chipper, which is a thirty game given). I’m beginning to believe in Frenchy. Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5

28. Chris B. Young – Caveat #3, Krispie doesn’t make a whole lot of contact, but when he does, he has a power/speed combo that should make any fantasy owner excited. I had him for a bit last year (Gamble dropped him. Natch, natch!) and I’ve been crushing on Young ever since, even when he was hitting .230 for me. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32

29. Andruw Jones – I don’t think he’s done-zo, but I watched more than my share of Jones at-bats last year. Caveat #4, He doesn’t care at all. Stop smiling after you strikeout; you’re really pissing me off! 85/32/110/.250 (BTW, speaking of not caring, while I was writing this up, I looked up to see if there was any new Andruw news. Seems he showed up to camp in Miguel Cabrera’s old body. Andruw will be retired by 36. Guaranteed.)

30. Nick Swisher – The move to the new team was a boon to his value, but that was mostly because his pre-trade value was pretty boon-less.  Caveat #5, Don’t go drafting Swisher expecting top OF value. He’s okay, but keep expectations in order. Projections: 90/33/105/.250

31. Jermaine Dye – Oddly, he seems like he has a bad attitude and, at the same time, no personality. (Unlike Jason Bay who can’t even sport a bad attitude.) Anyway,  Caveat #6, he had one good year amongst many mediocre ones. ’06 was an outlier. Don’t pay for a farkin’ outlier. Projections: 90/25/105/.280

32. Juan Pierre – Caveat #7, he’ll get you steals and maybe an inside the park home run if the official scorer blows a call on a bunt. Projections: 110/0/40/.300/50

33. Johnny Damon – Caveat #8, he relies on his legs and he’s getting old. And he’s getting old fast. Not sure what happened, perhaps diving for Manny’s cutoff throws took a lot out of him. If you don’t know what you’re getting from Damon by this point, you probably shouldn’t be playing fantasy baseball.  Projections: 105/15/70/.280/15

34. Jason Bay – Final Caveat, saved for this bum. I was going to leave Bay off completely, but I figured there would be some Pirates fan somewhere that would complain because Bay’s soooo cute and talented and, like, Canadian. Then I re-thought that and decided there are no Pirates fans. Act like you never saw Bay on this list. He’s poison. Projections: crap/crap/and more crap.

35. Shane Victorino – (Now’s the part of the list where I focus on sweet, sweet upside. These are guys you should be looking to draft.) Seriously, draft Victorino. What are you waiting for? I broke him down a few times already, but here’s the one that won me the Phillies Phulitzer. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40 and Victorino and I get a room. (BTW, cause I know this is coming, Gamble beat me to Victorino last year. Reverse natch!)

36. Matt Kemp – If the price is right, pounce on Kemp. Shandler’s projecting 14/20; Rotowire’s projecting 17/14; I’m predicting… Projections: 95/20/75/.290/20

37. Michael Bourn – He’s been discussed too if you click here. He’s Juan Pierre for the Gen Z generation.  Projections: 105/4/50/.280/40

38. Josh Hamilton – Now the only crack Hamilton knows is the crack of the bat. Oofa! Seriously, folks. He’s the feel-good story of ’06. Like a baseball Mr. Holland’s Opus. Yowsers! Anyway, he does seem to be a bit injury-prone so be careful, but there’s upside in Arlington. Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5

39. Josh Willingham/Jeremy Hermedia – The upside portion of our show has concluded. I’m not advising you draft both Willingham and Hermedia. Actually, I won’t be drafting either, but they’re here cause, well, you know, they belong here. While we’re here — A secret! Don’t draft any Marlin. I love the “Who you gonna call… Maroone!” commercials as much as the next guy, but this team’s going to be wretched. Projections for both: 70/24/75/85/.270 Hermedia’s got more upside and (supposedly) the ability to steal. This has yet to come to fruition.

40. Kosuke Fukodome – I already dropped some knowledge about this hombre on your Fukodome. I veer towards the proven, so here’s another guy I won’t be drafting. Why not take the gamble? One word – KazIwamura. Projections: 65/15/75/.275 and Murton gets some at-bats. Alas…

Tomorrow we go over the pitchers to grab in drafts after the top twenty. You’re welcome.

There are only three dates that matter to anyone remotely affiliated with baseball prior to Opening Day:  1) The day that pitchers & catchers report, 2) The day that hitters report, and 3) The day of your first fantasy draft (I did say remotely affiliated).

Now usually I pull a Manny Ramirez and wait until mid-March before getting things started but an opportunity arose to enter the Fantasy Baseball Writers League and I jumped at the chance to earn some bragging rights. Chalk it up to Rudy being Rudy.

Below are the members of our league, their draft order, and their first post after the draft (some have done multiple posts).

1. Eric Hinz, FakeTeams – www.faketeams.com
2. Zach Piso, Rotonomics – www.rotonomics.com
3. Knox Bardeen, Crooked Pitch – www.crookedpitch.com
4. David Chase, Brock For Broglio – www.brockforbroglio.com
5. Rudy Gamble, Razzball
6. Tim Dierkes, Roto Authority – www.rotoauthority.com
7. Kelly Pfleiger, Fantasy Gameday – www.fantasygameday.net
8. Bob Taylor, Fantasy Hurler  – www.fantasyhurler.blogspot.com
9. Tim McLeod, RotoRob – www.rotorob.com
10. Tony Bartlett, Fantasy Baseball Mafia – http://www.fantasybaseballmafia.com
11. Derek Nelson, Seamless Baseball – http://mvn.com/mlb-fantasy
12. Edwin Van Bibber-Orr, Seamless Baseball

Here’s how my draft turned out. I’m pretty happy with it.  I feel the Razzball.com team is more well-balanced than most (check their posts to see their rosters) with a very strong pitching staff from 1 through 11.  I’m obviously not thrilled about my 2B/MI spots but it’s a minor handicap that could be corrected by a breakthrough FA or perhaps good fortune (Nix is in line to be 2B in COL – has10 HR/20 SB potential).  I’ll take that over having subpar 1B (3 teams), reaches/question marks in the OF (5 teams), or iffy starting or closing pitching (several).

Round    Pick         Name                       Pos
7               (77)      Jorge Posada               C
24            (284)   Mike Napoli                 C
2              (20)      Mark Teixeira             1B
22           (260)    Freddy Sánchez         2B
14            (164)    Khalil Greene             SS
4              (44)     Garrett Atkins            3B (1B eligible)
17            (197)    Kevin Kouzmanoff    CI (3B)
26           (308)    Jayson Nix                 MI (2B)
3              (29)      Adam Dunn                OF
8              (92)      Jeff Francoeur           OF
9             (101)    Juan Pierre                 OF
12           (140)    Johnny Damon          OF
21           (245)    Melky Cabrera           OF
18           (212)    Kevin Youkilis           UTIL (1B, 3B)
1               (5)       Johan Santana            P
5             (53)      Dan Haren                   P
11           (125)     A.J. Burnett                 P
15          (173)     Adam Wainwright      P
16          (188)    Phil Hughes                 P
6            (68)     Joe Nathan                   P
10          (116)    Francisco Cordero      P
13          (149)    Chad Cordero              P
19          (221)    Heath Bell                    P
20         (236)    Andy Pettitte               P
23         (269)    Joaquín Benoit           P
25         (293)    Austin Kearns            OF

Since my fellow league members have taken care of the play-by-play for the top rounds, I’m going to focus the rest of this post on adding some color to the draft and providing some broader insights that might help you in your upcoming drafts.

Round 1:  The two biggest wildcards in the 1st round seem to be if/when Johan will be picked and who’ll bite on Pujols and his balky ‘Latin 28’ elbow.  (For those unfamiliar with Latin culture, their year has 400 days based on the wishes of an Incan god/aspiring baseball agent.  Cuba added an extra 2 weeks under Castro.)  In this draft, it was #5 for Santana (by yours truly) and #12 for Pujols.  I drew the 2nd pick in the draft but swapped with #5 knowing I could get Santana and avoid being in ‘wheel’ position.  As for Pujols, he’s a bargain if his elbow holds up and an anchor if he goes down.

Round 2 & 3:  These are the easiest or toughest rounds depending on who is left on the board.  Prince Fielder at #15 and Ryan Braun at #18 were easy picks.  In mock drafts, I had no problem snagging Carlos Lee at #20 but RotoAuthority took him at #19 and I was caught off-guard and went with Mark Teixiera.  In retrospect, I’m okay with this pick given there weren’t many 1B left on the board and one player had already doubled up on 1B with Howard and Fielder – setting an unofficial record for most pounds drafted in the first two rounds.  I was rooting for him to take Sabathia in the 3rd round but no luck.  The 3rd round saw great value in Peavy (1st pick in 3rd round) and Webb (2nd to last pick).  If you want V-Mart or Russell Martin in a 12-team, 2C league, be prepared to take them in the 3rd round.  I was lost on my 3rd round.  I had two clear favorites in Peavy and Berkman go off the board a few before me and reached on Dunn as a power OF over Ordonez and Markakis.  If I could do it again, I’d probably have taken Holliday at #1, Peavy #2, and Aramis Ramirez, Justin Morneau or Brandon Webb at #3.

Additional Observation on Rounds 2 & 3:  Here are three common picks in rounds 2-3 that I’m just not a fan of:  Ichiro (2nd round/10th pick), BJ Upton (2nd round/12th pick, Curtis Granderson 3rd round/4th pick).  Why?  Because at these levels, it presumes higher SB totals than what should be expected.  With his below average HR/RBI, Ichiro needs to steal 40 SB (and hit .340+) to warrant the high pick.  If he hits his more likely SB total of 30 (and .315), this is a bad value pick.  Upton is my favorite of the three because I THINK he’s a potental Soriano 30/40 guy.  But the more likely scenario is a 20/20 guy this year with a .270 average.  Unless he blows up, you’ve got yourself a darker Ian Kinsler in the 2nd round.  And Granderson?  What…are triples a category?  A 20/20 OF with 70 RBIs just doesn’t impress me that much.

Rounds 4-6: A lot of middle infield (8) and starting pitching (9) picks.  The value varies for the middle infielders.  Roberts and Figgins (eligible at 2B in Y! leagues) went off the board #1 and #2 in the 4th round.  A little early for me.  I think Figgins is the safer bet as he’s been the more consistent SB guy the past couple of years.  Roberts is less of a sure thing – as likely to get 30 SB as he is 50 SB.  He could live up to early 4th round value but odds are he doesn’t.  I like Carlos Guillen for the mix of HR/RBI/SB if you can get him in Rounds 5 or 6.  I could’ve had him Round 5 but went with Haren instead (over Hamels and Verlander – another ‘gut’ pick based on Haren being in the comfy NL West (vs. Verlander’s AL Central) and being a better bet for 200 IP than Hamels.  Given that Harang and Kazmir lasted until my #6 pick, it might’ve paid to pick Guillen instead.  Jeter went in the 4th round – too high for a guy who is lucky to crack 20 HRs or SBs.  As for pitching, starters move fast.  The top two tiers of starting pitchers near exhaustion by end of Round #6.  For relievers, our league started slow (no Putz or Papelbon until Round #5) but Nathan and K-Rod were snapped up by the end of the 6th.

Rounds 7-9: This is a transition segment when people start factoring ‘need’ into the general ‘value’ equation.  The values in this segment include SPs like F-Her/Dice-K/Vazquez, RPs like Saito/Rivera and OFs like Torii/Hawpe/Delmon Young/Vernon Wells (I just missed out on Torii in the 7th round as Brock for Broglio – whose draft was on autopick for 8 rounds – chose him as his 5th OF at the time.  It was like drafting with Jim Bowden when he GM’d the Reds and would stockpile OFs like they were firewood).  Speed guys jumped into this segment starting with Victorino (7th), Pierre (9th) and Ellsbury (9th).  I don’t love my pick of Pierre here but he’s the only one of the three that wasn’t picked 2+ rounds earlier than projected so there’s some value there.  Be warned if you don’t draft speed in the first 6 rounds – you may need to reach.  While I don’t love the middle IF value, Tejada (7th), Weeks (8th), and Kendrick (9th) all went according to ADP projections.  Hardy in the 8th round was a big reach – especially given that Khalil and Peralta lasted 6 more rounds.  The good thing, though, is Hardy is well-experienced in solving such mysteries.

Rounds 10-12:  Round #10 was a magical round in my league last year with Beckett, Haren, Ordonez, and Hunter all picked.  The only potential money pick in this draft is Liriano who is a worthwhile gamble as a 3rd starter that could end up being your ace.  RPs were still going cheap in the first two rounds – Wagner and F. Cordero in the 10th round, Jenks and Soriano in the 11th – only to become exhausted in the 12th when Hoffman, Streeet, Soria, Lidge, and Capps all came off.  My favorite of that 12th round bunch is Capps.  Street is too injury prone.  Lidge is injured.  Soria’s ok.  Some awful MI picks in my opinion w/ Renteria and Cabrera in the 10th and 11th.  They could earn these spots but projections have them much later.  The ‘speed reach’ continued in this round as Taveras and Bourn went in the 12th round.  On the SP front, if you’re like me and draft two starters in the top 5, these are the rounds you target #3.  I was happy with Burnett at #11.  I liked Pedro and Maine as well but couldn’t stand to root for a 2nd Met starter after drafting Johan.

Rounds 13-15:  You’ve got to consider needs at this point – both fulfilling yours and anticipating those of the other teams.  I was hoping for a bargain price on Kelly Johnson, Polanco, or Aaron Hill only to find them picked close to their value during this segment.  I was very happy to get Khalil in the 14th round to fill my SS spot – I think he’s the best value play at the position given he’s expected to be top 3 in HR/RBI.  There are still some closers to be had around now – I liked Corpas, Chad Cordero, and Izzy in the 13th round.  This is when, ideally, you’re looking for a 4th starter.  If you only have two, I’d draft two in this segment.  Nice mix of value bets (Pedro, Bonderman, Buchholz) and solid pitchers in Billingsley, McGowan, Hudson, Lilly, Penny, Snell, and Wainwright.

Rounds 16-18: Drafts aren’t made in this segment but the better teams will see 2 or all 3 of their picks on their roster (or at least a roster) by end of year.  I was hoping for old reliable D-Lowe in the 16th and had to settle on less reliable, more exciting Philip Hughes.  Love the value on Kouzmanoff in #17 and Youkilis in #18.  Filled my CI and UTIL before the pickings got slimmer.  The ugly and speculative closers starting coming off the board in Todd Jones in #17 and Borowski and CJ Wilson in #18.

Rounds 19-26: It’s just a bargain bin at this point.  I like to get a couple of middle relievers in these rounds and was happy with Heath Bell and Benoit.  You shouldn’t be filling any major positions in these rounds.  I was stuck on 2B and rode it out to take a dirty pick in Freddie Sanchez.  Ugly but do you think his stats will be different than Orlando Cabrera’s other than 10-15 SB?  You do NOT want to go into this round with 3 or less OFs…just saying.  A lot of OF prospects taken – hard to say if any will pan out.  Jay Bruce in round #19.  Cameron Maybin in round #20 (loved him in The Practice), Justin Upton (who actually went in round #17).  I’m quite happy to snag Melky Cabrera in #21 for a potential 15/20 year with decent R/RBI/AVG.  Pettitte provides 15 win potential at a cheap price – cheap enough that I could bench him against Boston and Detroit w/ no hesitations.  A few players took a 4th MI in these rounds – that’s dumb if you ask me.  Stock up on pitchers (I ended up with 11) and make sure you’ve got a 6th OF either in UTIL or the Bench.  I went with Austin Kearns hoping that the new park is the opposite of its predecessor.  Because of the dumb 4th MI picks, I had to reach all the way down for Jayson Nix on COL.  Hoping to catch lightning in the bottle – more likely to catch Barmes.

Summary:
Don’t fall under the misconception that starting pitching is undervalued in 12-team mixed leagues.  It’s only the top 3-5 that are.  I think Santana, Peavy, and Webb all offer 1st round value given their past performance, health, and divisions.  If you want a top 20 starter, you’re going to have to take one in the first 7 rounds.  If you’re banking on 5 starters, you should have it sewn up by round 16 or 17.

The #1 most speculated thing in drafts is speed.  Draft based on realistic expectations.  Reyes getting 55 SB, Hanley getting 40 SB, Sizemore getting 30 SB, etc.  If a guy isn’t a sure bet for 30 SB, watch out.  20-25 SB turns into 10 SB pretty quick – just takes a tender hamstring.  SBs are important but it’s just one category.  Just b/c a guy is 20/20 doesn’t mean you’re not sacrificing R/RBI/AVG by taking them.

1B and OF go fast.  Try and get the best value you can.  Don’t wait too long or you put your team at a big disadvantage.

Middle infield is almost all overvalued after the 1st round.  If you can find good value, invest a top 10 round pick on it.  Otherwise, look for value plays like Khalil, Peralta, Kelly Johnson, etc.  You can do worse than to pick Johnson and Greene at #13 and #14.  And never draft a 4th middle infielder unless you plan on trading one with significant trade value.

No need to rush on closers.  It’s probably best to let Putz and Papelbon get picked if only to ensure you don’t overestimate your league’s appetite for relievers.  Once they are off, I’d target K-Rod or Nathan.  If you can get a 2nd top 10 reliever in the 9th or 10th round, go for it.  If you can get a solid reliever in the 13th or later round, do it.  Relievers are the opposite of new cars – they get more value once you drive them off the lot.

While free agency can help fill in deep slots like 4th and 5th OF, UTIL, etc., you can’t bank on this in a 12 team league.  Going with prospects here isn’t bad but 1st year OFs have spotty track records at best (espec. w/ AVG).  I think I found very good value for these slots with Damon, Cabrera, and Youkilis.

Lastly, go through several simulations and mock drafts before your actual draft.  Determine several scenarios for rounds 1-5 and look for value over assumed need.  Know the slots where you’ll find value in later rounds so you’re not hunting for exhausted positions like 1B and OFs when the pickings are slim.  And, while it’s cliché, try to stay just ahead of the curve and anticipate runs at a certain position.  Hopefully the above info helps in that regard.

Please feel free to post feedback on my team, my advice, or ask general draft questions…

Like a Scotch drinker, I’ve found my taste for baseball projections has matured over the years.  Where my initial taste was weaned on Dewar’s-quality projections like ESPN, Yahoo!, or some $4.95 magazine off the newsstand, I now hold out for premium, single-malt varieties like PECOTA/Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler.  I recommend buying both of their projections online as you can get their projections in spreadsheet form.

While peers suggest I try other high-quality (and free) projections like CHONE, ZiPs, etc., I’ve put projection experimenting on hold to tackle a greater quest – one that could benefit our site’s loyal readers and the fortunate souls who get redirected here by a search engine.

The challenge is answering the question “How do you convert player projections into rankings?”  As once you’ve settled on your projections, there are several key pre-draft considerations that need to take place to ensure success:

1. Value of Player Based on Position Depth – e.g, how much does a player’s value increase/decrease based on the other available options for that position?
2. Value of Players in Different Positions – e.g., how much do you sacrifice on a player’s total stats because they play 2B vs. 1B
3. Value of a Player’s Stat Mix – e.g., how do you compare the value of 40/120/10 (HR/RBI/SB) vs. 15/75/40?
4. Value of Hitter vs Pitcher Stats – e.g., how do you compare A-Rod vs. Santana?
5. Value of a Player By You vs. Others – e.g., how long can you wait before picking a player?

(Note:  Risk and health are other key considerations but they ideally should be factored into the projections – i.e., Rich Harden shouldn’t be projected at 200 IP)

While a solution for the above factors appears complex, the concept behind how to do it is rather simple:  Convert all the statistics to the same metric (think money – it’s real easy to compare 10 dollars vs 15 Euro vs. 2000 Yen if you convert the Euro and Yen to dollars).  This is the underlying concept behind Bill James’ Win Shares.

So what metric makes the most sense for fantasy baseball?  Where real baseball success is measured in Wins, fantasy baseball success is measured in points.

Hence, “Point Shares”

Please click for our inaugural edition of Fantasy Baseball Point Shares for 2008.  I’m going to refrain from a drawn-out explanation of the methodology.  The important parts to understand are:

1. Point shares represent the estimated impact on a team’s points by substituting a player for the average drafted player at his position on a team filled with average players.  So in a 10 team league, this team would otherwise earn 5.5 points per category (55 points).  Substituting one of those average pitchers (approx. Ian Snell) for Johan Santana would net an approximated gain of 7.8 points to 62.8.
2. To account for a hitter’s value outside their position (The utility spot, the fact that a SS HR is worth the same as an OF HR), hitters receive 2/3 of points value based on their stats vs. the average drafted player in their position and 1/3 of points value based on the average drafted hitter.
3. Since pitching positions can be filled with starters or relievers, player value was adjusted.  Starting pitcher values are 75% based on average drafted starting pitcher, 25% on average drafted pitcher.  Relievers are 40% on average drafted reliever, 60% on average drafted pitcher.
4. Hitters are placed at their most valuable position where they are 20 games eligible.  Their rank/value at other positions they are eligible (down through expected eligibility like Ryan Braun in OF) is listed lower down in the spreadsheet.
5. Two versions are included:  a 10 team, 5×5, MLB universe, C/1B/2B/SS/3B/CI/MI/5 OF/Util/9P and a 12 team, 5×5, MLB Universe with 2C/1B/2B/SS/3B/CI/MI/5 OF/Util/9P.

As with any player ratings system – especially one this ambitious – the standard question would be “How do you test this?”.  The beauty of this methodology is it was relatively easy to test.  I took 7 drafts off of Mock Draft Central and calculated the rankings based on the underlying projections (weighted model of PECOTA and Shandler) and the Point Shares.

After making a few adjustments, the results of the test were very promising – Point Shares predicted total team points within +/- 2 point for 45 of the 70 teams.  Another 18 were predicted within +/- 5 points.  Only 1 team fell outside of +/- 7 points.

On a category-by-category basis, the Point Shares correlate well with the total team stats.  For the hitting stats, the team Point Shares correlated at 97+% with the total stats.  For pitchers, Saves, ERA, and WHIP correlated at 90+% while Wins and Strikeouts were at 90% aside from one league where the projections tanked.  Why did the pitching stats not do as well as the hitting stats?  It is because of the random mix of starters and relievers who – unlike hitters – have vastly different counting stats.   ERA and WHIP proved most successful because they could be weighted by innings pitched.

Look out for future posts referencing these Point Shares and probably make some tweaks along the way – especially if we get revised player projections.

We also want to state clearly that this is NOT a recommended draft ordering.  The main reason is that it doesn’t factor in the 5th pre-draft consideration mentioned earlier – the “Value of a Player By You vs. Others”.  Yes, I believe Peavy is worthy of a top 5 pick but if you can get him in the 2nd round or possibly the 3rd round, by all means wait.  Average Draft Position stats are the one piece of valuable information you can get from Yahoo!, ESPN, etc.  If you’re playing in an advanced league, you may want to use those on Mock Draft Central (requires subscription).

Also note that some of the differences aren’t statistically relevant.  If you like Jose Reyes at 3.65 over Ryan Howard at 3.72, go with your gut b/c it’s a virtual pick’em anyway.

So use this as your rankings base then make adjustments based on your preferences and your feel for your fellow drafters.  And good luck…