RCL sign-ups are in full bloom, but this isn’t for that. This is for those in deeper or shallower leagues. We already went over what it took to win your fantasy baseball league for 12 teams. Don’t believe me? Click this. Sucker! You got Rick Schroder rolled! Or not because you read this part before you clicked it. I know, 2002 called, they want their internet meme back. Okay, here’s what it takes to win your 12 team fantasy baseball league. Now here we have what it takes to win a 10, 14 and 16 team mixed league and an AL-Only or NL-Only league. I’m not going to breakdown how much it takes to move up each point because with a little math you should be able to figure it out on your own. Look at me having high hopes for you Razzballers. (Hint: Average is always the middle plus a half. So the average in a 10 team league is 5.5. To move up a point is the difference between the high and low number divided by the number of teams minus one. So to move up one point in Runs in a ten team league, it’s 1240-1000 divided by 8, which is 30 Runs. Voila, snitches!) This is for the roster of C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/MI/CI/UTIL/9 P in the mixed leagues. Then the AL and NL-Only leagues are factoring in 2 catchers. In ten team mixed leagues, 10 pitchers are factored in because of the heavy waiver wiring that goes on. Finally, the mixed leagues IP range is 1400-1500 and 1300-1400 in single leagues. Wins and Ks should be lowered if your cap is below that. Anyway, here’s what it takes to win a 10, 14, 16, NL-Only and AL-Only fantasy baseball league:
10 TEAM, MIXED
RUNS
Average – 1120
High – 1240
Low – 1000
HOME RUNS
Average – 267
High – 315
Low – 219
RBIS
Average – 1093
High – 1216
Low – 969
STEALS
Average – 184
High – 254
Low – 114
AVERAGE
Average – .279
High – .291
Low – .267
WINS
Average – 100
High – 120
Low – 79
SAVES
Average – 84
High – 156
Low – 44
ERA
Average – 3.66
High – 3.10
Low – 4.23
WHIP
Average – 1.25
High – 1.18
Low – 1.31
STRIKEOUTS
Average – 1348
High – 1576
Low – 1120
14 TEAM, MIXED
RUNS
Average — 1067
High — 1181
Low — 953
HOME RUNS
Average — 247
High — 287
Low — 206
RUNS BATTED IN
Average — 1038
High — 1155
Low — 921
STEALS
Average — 169
High — 229
Low — 108
AVERAGE
Average — .275
High — .287
Low — .263
WINS
Average — 90
High — 109
Low — 71
SAVES
Average — 62
High — 117
Low — 33
ERA
Average — 3.75
High — 3.17
Low — 4.33
WHIP
Average — 1.26
High — 1.20
Low — 1.32
STRIKEOUTS
Average — 1192
High — 1394
Low — 991
16 TEAMS, MIXED
RUNS
Average — 1040
High — 1151
Low — 929
HOME RUNS
Average — 241
High — 280
Low —201
RBIS
Average — 1013
High — 1127
Low — 898
STEALS
Average — 157
High — 213
Low — 100
AVERAGE
Average — .274
High — .286
Low — .262
WINS
Average — 88
High — 106
Low — 69
SAVES
Average — 56
High — 107
Low — 30
ERA
Average — 3.78
High — 3.19
Low — 4.37
WHIP
Average — 1.27
High — 1.20
Low — 1.33
STRIKEOUTS
Average — 1167
High — 1364
Low — 969
10 TEAM, AL-ONLY
RUNS
Average — 974
High — 1078
Low — 870
HOME RUNS
Average — 220
High — 259
Low — 180
RBIS
Average — 944
High — 1051
Low — 838
STEALS
Average — 147
High — 202
Low — 91
AVERAGE
Average — .272
High — .283
Low — .260
WINS
Average — 84
High — 101
Low — 66
SAVES
Average — 45
High — 88
Low — 13
ERA
Average — 4.05
High — 3.42
Low — 4.67
WHIP
Average — 1.31
High — 1.24
Low — 1.37
STRIKEOUTS
Average — 1084
High — 1267
Low — 901
10 TEAM, NL-ONLY
RUNS
Average — 940
High — 1040
Low — 839
HOME RUNS
Average — 219
High — 258
Low — 179
RBIS
Average — 921
High — 1025
Low — 817
STEALS
Average — 132
High — 182
Low — 82
AVERAGE
Average — .271
High — .283
Low — .259
WINS
Average — 92
High — 111
Low — 73
SAVES
Average — 44
High — 101
Low — 14
ERA
Average — 3.82
High — 3.23
Low —4.41
WHIP
Average — 1.28
High — 1.21
Low — 1.34
STRIKEOUTS
Average — 1242
High — 1452
Low — 1032
12 TEAM, AL-ONLY
RUNS
Average — 826
High — 914
Low — 738
HOME RUNS
Average — 188
High — 219
Low — 157
RBIS
Average — 802
High — 893
Low — 712
STEALS
Average — 123
High — 167
Low — 79
AVERAGE
Average — .271
High — .283
Low — .259
WINS
Average — 80
High — 97
Low — 63
SAVES
Average — 38
High — 74
Low — 11
ERA
Average — 4.12
High — 3.48
Low — 4.76
WHIP
Average — 1.32
High — 1.25
Low — 1.38
STRIKEOUTS
Average — 1038
High — 1213
Low — 862
12 TEAM, NL-ONLY
RUNS
Average — 791
High — 875
Low — 706
HOME RUNS
Average — 184
High — 214
Low — 153
RBIS
Average — 775
High — 863
Low — 688
STEALS
Average — 111
High — 151
Low — 71
AVERAGE
Average — .271
High — .283
Low — .259
WINS
Average — 87
High — 105
Low — 69
SAVES
Average — 38
High — 84
Low — 12
ERA
Average — 3.89
High — 3.28
Low — 4.49
WHIP
Average — 1.29
High — 1.22
Low — 1.35
STRIKEOUTS
Average — 1169
High — 1367
Low — 971
My friends and I play Low Payroll baseball — only players from the bottom 15 payrolls are eligible. It’s difficult for me to even convey how enjoyable it is to load up on Royals, Pirates and A’s every year. Thought I’d share.
@Eric H. Where do you play that?
I got rolled…today is not a good day
longest scroll down ever.
Sorry to go way off-topic with this post, but did anyone have a good laugh yesterday and read Berry’s Crap-ifesto on ESPN? Good toilet reading material which then can be used as toilet paper…
The nugget of information that Berry expounds on us mere mortals that caught my eye is the following:
“I’m here to tell you that although sabermetrics can be very helpful in identifying future performance, they are not the be-all and end-all. I’ve never claimed to be a sabermetrician or even a big stats guy.”
Not a “big” stats guy, huh Berry? What do you use to value players, witching sticks? I shouldn’t be surprised by this revelation, given the slop of fantasy “advice” he provides his readers.
@Eric H.:
Your comment was hilarious. Gave me a good laugh, thanks.
@Grey
Assuming I don’t want to punt a category, can I apply these goals to H2H leagues?
@Tony: Yeah this post is Mandingo long.
@The Cow: Actually watching players is the best metric, IMO. I agree with his point, in fact. Especially considering the “sabre-nazis” running around FBB these days. You can’t even have a discussion with these guys.
@The Cow: it was 12,000 friggin’ words and, shockingly, in my opinion some of it was actually decent advice if you’ve never played fantasy baseball before. But for people that read this site and are addicted to fantasy baseball, if read out loud it would’ve sounded like the adults on the Charlie Brown cartoons.
Just this week I had my commissioner email Yahoo and ask them if they could provide last year’s league average for 10-team, mixed, H2H leagues. They wrote back to him that they could not but in the future they would consider maybe passing this along to… blah blah blah.
2 days later I get this gem. I can use the hitting numbers more or less as they are and can roughly extrapolate the pitching numbers to fit my league. I can’t believe this came out voluntarily, literally a few days after Yahoo denied my request.
This is why I read Razzball. THIS….is why I live.
Grey,
The commish of my league decided to get rid of wins and add quality starts as a category. Will this have any impact on the starting pitchers that I’m targeting.
@Razzball Nation: Does anyone know of a tool that can assess the value of draft picks in trades (similar to the standard formulas that they use for moving up or down in the “real” NFL draft. For example, in my 16 team dynasty league, I’ve been offered an extra 1st round pick (#16) for my 3rd (#42) and 4th (#55) round picks. I’d also be curious what you think about this trade offer.
Thanks everyone!
@Carns very strange. I do something similar to Grey’s post except I calculate finsihing 2 1/2th in each category across the past five years in my keeper. Those Yahoo stats should be there for you, on Yahoo look under Overview then Fantasy Profile then select your team from last year. Of course you have to be logged in with the same account as last year. I’m looking at old league results right now.
@Bill Lumbergh Not sure if you’re in a snake or an auction league. If you’re in a snake you could calculate z-scores of all ranked projected players and use that as a score to compare, ie 2 3rd rounders worth 4 points each are more valuable then 3 4th rounders worth 2.5 points each. If you’re in an auction just use dollar amounts of players who would otherwise appear at or around those picks.
ok, enough procrastinating, back to working on projections
@Bill Lumbergh might I add for a quick comparison of pick value you might want to use a free tool like Baseball Monster to automate that process for you.
@Bill Lumbergh: would you have to get another draft pick from the person, as in, would you get their last round or something to make sure the draft was even?
We do trades like this in two of my leagues where we trade keepers for picks. I love swapping picks with people. I traded my first round pick for Jason Heyward and his 9th round pick in a 16 Team H2H keeper league. I also traded Carlos Santana and my last round pick for a 5th round pick. So basically while giving up my first round pick, I still got one extra pick in the first 9 rounds plus Mr. Heyward, and my draft will end in the next to last round. I like doing it, it can be very helpful.
@Wilsonian: @Bill Lumbergh: You just have to look at what should/might be available at those picks. If it’s nothing you’d want, etc and the bumping up is a better deal move up….
@carlos marmLOL:
I actually had a bit of a back and forth with Grey discussing this same principle. Since this is the first season where I’ll be in a league where we trade picks, I’m having trouble determining how much a 4th round pick, for example, is worth when compared to a player? How about in a keeper league?
How much would a 23rd round Mike Stanton with 3 round inflation per year be worth in terms of an assigned pick?
Anyways, where in Baseball Monster can I go for this?
@Ozzie: We just do it on Yahoo. Everyone knows the ineligible teams prior to the draft so you gotta be careful not to accidentally select Pujols.
@Razzball Nation
What do you guys think about this offense in a H2H, 12-team league with OBP instead of AVG?
C-Carlos Santana
1B-Miguel Cabrera
2B-Brandon Phillips
3B-David Wright
SS-Ian Desmond
OF-Carlos Gonzalez
OF-Hunter Pence
OF-Jacoby Ellsbury
Util-Adam Dunn
Util-Pedro Alvarez
BN-Lind
@carlos marmLOL: @Wilsonian: @Tony: Thanks guys! You’ve given me some good insight and a great starting point.
@Pops:
I envy your league. I tried switching to that but my hard-headed league mates want W instead.
Anyways, nothing changes TOO drastically. The elite pitchers are still elite. names like Felix, Halladay and Lincy will remain how they are in Grey’s rankings.
There are a few standouts in 2010 in QS, however. Kuroda, Wandy and Myers are all in the top 20 with at least 20 QS. Hell, Randy Wolf was 20th with 20.
ESPN actually allows you to sort 2010 SP based on QS.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/nl/sort/qualityStarts/type/expanded
@Grey
Man I’m piling up the questions today.
I’ve been seeing that Carpenter has been falling to the tail-end of the 8th round and sometimes into the 10th round in Yahoo! drafts. You have him as your 27th pitcher off the board and on average he’s the 22nd pitcher being drafted.
For a pitcher that gives you a good WHIP, a good shot at W, and a mid-3s ERA, isn’t that a good bargain in the 9th round?
@Eddy:
And I know his Ks aren’t fantastic, btw. But for a 3rd SP, you can’t ask for much more.
@Eddy unfortunately their projections aren’t up but you could use 2010 numbers as a rough guide. Keep in mind this is a very blunt instrument that should only be used directionally.
Run rankings on your categories, I’ll use 5×5. A 4th round performance (not pick) is worth about .51 points. Thus if someone was willing to give you a 6th and 7th round pick for it (.33+.20) it would be about a wash.
The reason for doing this is because talent is not spread out in a linear fashion, if you were to visualize performance player to player it’s almost like a declining logarithmic curve.
For Stanton it’s a bit more complicated, don’t use the 23rd to value him but where you project he would fall, then calculate profit or marginal benefit from getting him in the 23rd or 20th.
@Eric H.: Sounds a little like Fantasy Razzball.
@Tony: Ha, seriously.
@The Cow: Yeah, nice quote.
@Eddy: Honestly, you could try it, but it’s no longer scientific and then going approximations.
@RandomItalicizedVoice: Ha!
@Carns: Cool, glad to help.
@Pops: You’ll need better starters.
@Bill Lumbergh: I’d take an extra first rounder, but it’s fair.
@Eddy: It’s not bad in the 9th, but then he becomes your number two. That offense looks great, impossible to get, but great.
@Grey – I’m now “compelled” to take Albert 1st overall and 3B’s are flying off the board before picks 24-25. Kemp, Holliday and Reyes are generally there. Which ones to team up with Albert? Thanks!
@Eddy: That looks like a pretty nice offense. I play roto, so my only concern would be that some of those guys run pretty hot and cold (Phillips, Desmond, Pence) which can hurt you in H2H, right?
This post inspired me to update my spreadsheet on my 20 team league. I only have the data from the last 10 for this league since i didn’t keep track of the totals in our early years. Given how much has changed in baseball recently, I’ve decided to only use the last 5 years of data. You need to average 3rd place in any category (or around 180 points) to have a good chance of winning. It is a keeper league, so there is some mid-season dumping, which I’m sure affects the numbers, but there is also a small punishment for finishing last, and a salary cap of $300 ($260 auction budget) which balances that out. 2 catcher, MI, CI, 5OF league
Here are the 5 year averages for 3rd place:
AVG: .278
HR: 252
R: 1012
RBI: 109
SB: 155
ERA 3.74
K: 1163
S: 86
W:92
WHIP: 1.26
As far as trends, the number of strikeouts to finish 3rd each year has increased by about 25 for each of the last 5 years while the number of RBI and R needed to finish 3rd has dropped by about 20 per year for each of the last 5 years. Surprisingly, SB totals are steady for each of the last 5 years with the high being 157 and the low being 154. Wins are the tightest category every year with the difference between second and sixth being only a couple of Ws each year.
Of course this is just a small sample size, but I thought the data-points would be interesting for those in very large mixed leagues.
@carlos marmLOL: I did that already. It doesn’t give me the stats I need. With rosters constantly fluctuating in my league, I need each teams totals from last year in the 10 categories. I looked all through last year it does not list the totals or old matchups (which I would’ve been willing to add up), unless I just can’t find them. Right now, I have to tweak those numbers to fit my league, which is going to involve some guesswork and assumptions. I saw the RCL kickoff post a couple days ago and I think that had the positions on it (my league only has 10 hitters and teams have bigger staffs). I guess I’ll start there.
@DonSlaughtOnslaught:
Yeah, I can definitely see Desmond freezing on me, as well as Phillips. I’m hoping Pence stays somewhat consistent.
@Grey:
Thanks. There are some keepers mixed in there. I’ve been working on possible picks for the past week in Yahoo, taking into account current Yahoo! user ADPs. Knowing that I draft first, and thus know my exact picks, I might as well do something with it!
@Bill Lumbergh: no problem. And I agree with what the others have said, it just depends on what would be available. In my league, I was OK giving up my 1st rounder to be able to lock up Heyward. Our 1st round is technically the 6th round after keepers, and I didn’t see anyone better than him being available to me in the 1st.
@Bill Lumbergh: Bill – check out Point Shares for your league and add together the Point Shares for the ranked player that represents the pick. You then have to assign a value for the 2nd roster slot which would be something like 16 * Roster Spots per team.
I haven’t put up 16 team point shares yet so I’ll give you the calcs I got:
16th pick = $28 (6.26 point shares)
42nd pick = $23 (4.11 point shares)
55th pick = $20 (3.22 point shares)
353rd pick (assuming 16 teams with 22 players) = $2 (-3.80 piont shares)
Net: 42nd pick and 55th pick WAY more valuable than 16th pick and a free agent.
Note: It would require the #1 pick in the draft (Pujols) to make up the value of those other two picks.
@AnotherFalstaff: a Reyes/YOUK coupled with Albert would be nice, fills SS and 3B that you seem worried about. Which you should be because it sucks to fill.
KEEPER LEAGUE – KEEP 5 PLAYERS HERE NEED SOME HELP HERE
Carl Crawford
Ryan Howard
Kendry Morales
José Reyes
Mike Stanton
Kevin Youkilis
Troy Tulowitzki
Jon Lester
Stephen Strasburg
Carlos Mármol
Drew Storen
SETTINGS
Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL
Batters Stat Categories: Runs (R), Doubles (2B), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), On-base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Percentage (SLG)
Pitchers Stat Categories: Wins (W), Saves (SV), Home Runs (HR), Strikeouts (K), Holds (HLD), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)
going through last years posts on my yahoo fantasy league
here one that I posted –
4% of yahoo owners still own Kyle Blanks
September 5 th
Fantasy Baseball Blog at Razzball.com| Eric Young, Jr., Fantasy
Aug 26, 2009 … 11 mr baseball Says: August 26th, 2009 at 7:07 am … @mr baseball: Ha! @Nathan: I think you’re being a bit too rash there. …
razzball.com/junior-sprints/ – Similar
looks like I got a Ha out of you Grey on Aug 26th 2009
Seems like Frank Frank is the leading candidate to close. Kinda sucks, was hoping Dotel would get it.
For someone like me, who puts together his own projections spreadsheet and plays in many different leagues with varing formats, this is the perfect post to help me develop my targets. Thank you, Grey, I wait for this valuable tool each season.
@mr baseball: tulo, carl, howard, Youk and lester…. i could see swapping reyes for youk possibly and dealing reyes, but then you’re banking on a trade and Youk is about = value to Youk.
@Tony: = value to reyes
Freedie Freeman or Adam Laroche as a 16th rounder in a 14 team keeper, 5×5 league(23 players)?????
@AnotherFalstaff: Kemp and Holliday…
@Royo: Thanks for sharing!
@mr baseball: Skip Stanton, Reyes and Morales in your first 8.
@Ivar Anderson: No problem.
@Curt: Freeman
grey…who the better bet to go 30/100
bruce or lind?
Should I make this trade in a pure dynasty?
Send Carlos Gonzalez, Col
Send Fernando Rodney, LAA
Send Gavin Floyd, CWS SP
Receive Mark Teixeira, NYY
Receive Joba Chamberlain, NYY
Receive Phil Hughes, NYY
Thanks
@wilsoniam: Lind
@Craig: Looks good for you.
******THERE’S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS.********
NL 10-team SB totals must be wrong? AVG and LOW are the same. But otherwise a useful yardline, guidestick, whatever.
@Steve: Good catch. I transcribed wrong.
Thanks for updating.
Our 10-team NL roto is in its 26th year. I totalled our same numbers for last 5 years and was interested in how they match w/yours. We are standard 23-man auction PLUS 9-man reserve draft for total of 32-player roster (juiced by 10 count ‘em 10 keepers). The top totals in our hitting categories are pretty close to what you’ve listed for NL 5×5 but the winning pitching categories show way more W, S and Ks with slightly higher WHIP and ERA.
The larger roster allows streaming pitchers (daily transactions) which helps the counting, hurts the ratios. Would like to figure out how this not remarkable info might give me an advantage at our auction but there’s no mystery: nail down your offense and acquire all the 4/5 starters, CIW and quality middle inning guys you can. LIMA on Extenze?
Anyway, thanks for updating the numbers. You’ve also talked me into not keeping Weeks ($20) but will hang on the CarGo ($5).
Great work! This is really helpful. Two questions though, Grey:
First: Using the formula and example you used above, it seems that in order to get 10 points in a category you need 1255 runs scored which is 15 runs (or half of that 30-run unit) more than you should need. The same thing happens in the opposite direction (985 runs for 1 point instead of 1000). Is there any way the formula would work if your goal is to get 1st place in any specific category?
Second: Why do you think fantasy websites (Yahoo, ESPN, etc.) never release these types of numbers? It’s so frustrating.
Thanks!