The Moment of Zen:
A central part of Zen practice is understanding both the importance and lack thereof of any moment in time. On some level, right now is the most essential moment possible because it’s the only one we’re currently living. This moment is real – whatever is right now is. Everything else is not. The past that may have led to this moment or the future that might result from it are immaterial visions: they might have been, and they may end up being, but currently, they are not. Conversely, the importance of right now is limited because, soon, it will no longer be. The truth of impermanence is: this moment is happening right now, but it will not be happening for much longer. Among life’s guarantees is that whatever this moment is, it will change or end.
Another aspect concerns what we might judge as “good” or “bad.” If this moment is “good,” I am desperate for it not to end. I want it to last as long as possible. If it’s “bad,” I want to distract myself from it, to end it as soon as possible. But what makes the moment “good” or “bad”? Did I enjoy it? Did I feel fulfilled? Wonderful, but is that good? Are there times I have enjoyed immensely that I tried to find again, only to lead myself to pain or sorrow? Absolutely. Are there times I have hated and wanted to be rid of that that eventually led to growth or happiness? Indeed.
Norman Fischer, director of the Everyday Zen Foundation, gives an excellent summary of what this – our inability to tell good from bad, beneficial from damaging – might mean for our practice:
From the standpoint of Zen practice, maybe we don’t know why this or that happens to this or that person. But we do know it has happened. What is, is. It’s just like this, not some other way. And our practice is to make use of what is. This is our path, whatever happens.
Practice gives us the strength and vision not to be destroyed even by the worst that can happen. Maybe we can’t explain it away. But we can endure it, transform it, and go on. Everything is impermanent, already broken inherently, and empty of any graspable reality. This we know. So we set aside our questions about whether or not the Buddhist doctrine of karma makes airtight perfect sense. Maybe the way it makes sense or doesn’t make sense is beyond our ability to know. But we do know how to accept, endure, and go forth, to make use of what happens for our path. That’s awakening; that’s freedom. (What is Zen 67)
If I understand Fischer correctly, I must come to terms with my judgment in and of the moment not being perfect – or even correct most of the time, but my ability to learn from what is happening, work with that information, and move forward from it, is both well within my ability and my responsibility.
How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?
The beginning of the baseball season never fails to be one of expectations clashing with reality. Anyone who seeks out fantasy baseball information enough to read a column like this must be delighted that baseball has returned. We’ve missed the game so much that we can turn opening day and the few days following it into a mythological fever dream of baseball perfection. Upon the season’s return, I think we half believe that the muses will once again sing, flowers will bloom, world peace can occur.
And then, at the end of the first weekend, we look at our fantasy teams and realize something to the effect of: “Ugh, ALL of my players are terrible! How is my team so bad?!?” And the fever dream becomes a sort of nightmare, one from which we might feel we simply cannot recover.
The reality, of course, is that 3 or 4 days is such a small percentage of a 6 month season that, barring some significant injury that happens during the first weekend, come September, we likely won’t remember those things now causing us such angst. And the same goes for our early-season successes – if you look hard enough, you’ll probably find your team also has players off to a great start. But as with bad play, good play over such a small sample is quite likely meaningless in the long run.
The question is how we can learn from what is happening and move forward. Here is my attempt to do just that with two Angels off to really good starts. As I review these two players, I find myself excited about the potential of one of them – but perhaps not the one you might think.
**All stats I reference will be as of end of the day on Saturday, March 28th.
Based on his prime, it’s likely fair to say Mike Trout is one of the best baseball players ever to play the game. But his prime was cut mercilessly short as injuries have taken much of his greatness away. Now, many of us look at Trout and think of what might have been.
This season’s start may be making us think the old Trout is still in there. After 3 games, he’s hitting a cool .556 – that isn’t a SLG% or an OPS; that’s his BA. His OBP (.733) and SLG% (1.222) are absurd. He already has 2 HR, 3 RBI, and 1 SB. But is this great start a sign that the old Trout might come out to play in 2026? Maybe, but I have my doubts.
The first sign that Trout’s run is simply him being locked in amidst a white hot streak is his 40% BB% and 6.7% K%. His career rates are 14.9% and 23.1%, respectively. Trout has maintained a 20+% BB% one time in his career: 2018, when his .312 BA, 39 HR, and 24 SB helped him finish as AL MVP runner-up. His next highest BB% (18.5 and 18.3) came the years immediately before and after 2018 (i.e. 2017 and 2019), a window of time when Trout was very much in his prime. Clearly, a 40% BB% isn’t sustainable, but I’m more interested in his 6.7% K%. Considering that Trout’s last 5 seasons have K-rates of 32%, 21.4% (in only 29 games), 28.7%, 27.9%, and 28.1%, I’m pretty sure his current single digit rate isn’t going to last.
But hot streaks happen for both great players and below average ones. What do Trout’s other numbers suggest?
Well, his 100% Z-Contact% doesn’t look particularly sustainable, nor does his 95.5% Contact%. He’s making contact outside the zone 80% of the time, but only swinging outside the zone 11.9% of the time. Not one of these numbers is close to anything Trout has ever done, not even in his prime. More concerningly, while his Barrel% looks amazing at 25% (we’re talking 8 batted ball events), his HH% is way down from last year, at only 37.5%. These are so few batted ball events as to make the data essentially meaningless, but since they are so far out of career norm ranges, they don’t suggest anything real – quite likely just statistical variance in a small sample.
What could be real, however, since we can glean meaningful data even after one game: bat speed. And Trout’s bat speed is fine so far this season (73.5 mph) unless you consider last season’s (74 mph) and 2024’s (75.7 mph). The downward trend isn’t promising.
I love seeing Trout be successful in the early going, but nothing in the initial data tells me to get excited, especially considering his hot starts to seasons that only end up wrecked by injury. If a month from now he’s still carrying absurd rates, then I’ll definitely pay attention.
Nolan Schanuel’s early-season numbers are a bit less eye-popping, but I’m finding myself much more interested by them. After the same 3 games as Trout, Schanuel is hitting .308 with a .400 OBP and .769 SLG. Those numbers, like Trout’s, will almost certainly come down. Schanuel’s 2 HR to this point do not suggest he’s going to his 120 HR this season.
But his HH% being up to 44.4% gets my attention. Like Trout, Schanuel’s limited batted ball events (9) don’t allow us to conclude much from the 15.4% jump up from 2025’s HH%. But his EV being up nearly 2 mph, even in the tiny sample, makes me notice. Especially when paired with his swing decisions: Schanuel isn’t swinging at pitches as often. Again, in a tiny sample size, he is swinging outside the zone 20% of the time (down 3.9% from 2025), inside the zone 51.6% of the time (down from 64.9% in 2025), and overall just 34.8% of the time (down from 45%). Overall, Schanuel is making contact less often (78.3%, down from 86%), but his Z-Contact% is up nearly 2% to 93.8%.
Why do these numbers pique my interest? Because they don’t suggest Schanuel is on a white hot streak. They actually make me think he might have made a decision to swing less often, meaning he is searching more intentionally for the type of pitch he wants. When players choose to swing less often so that they can look for a pitch to drive, their Contact% often goes down because they are swinging harder when they get the pitch they want. So, you might wonder about Schanuel’s bat speed? Is he swinging harder this year? The answer is a resounding “Yes!” His early-season bat speed measures at 71 mph, nothing terribly impressive unless you consider his 67.5 mph in 2025 and 65.2 mph in 2024. Notice the trend? There is a definite shift upward – he is clearly swinging harder.
I think there might be something here. I’m at least willing to make some speculative waiver claims of Schanuel just to see how things go.
With what is happening right now for Trout and Schanuel, it’s hard to reach meaningful conclusions. But experience in fantasy tells us some data is more meaningful than others, and making intentional choices about when and how hard to swing are among the decisions that matter. While I don’t pretend to know what is coming next, I do know how I plan to move forward with this information. Good luck as you wrestle with the same decisions.
Until next week. –ADHamley
