No, it’s not Bastille Day. I mean, technically it might be, but I wouldn’t know much about it because that would require roughly five percent added effort to open up another tab and Google it. That’s five percent I just can’t spare at my age and energy level. So maybe since we’re not a website platform that dedicates itself to talking about French holidays, and I might be spoiling it, but we’re all here to talk about (write about?) Ty France and his current struggles. Now just hitting .245 with just one homerun and a frustrating .363 slugging, the Mariners first baseman wasn’t even in the lineup in his series finale against the Blue Jays, “feeling under the weather”.
I’ve lived in Seattle, the weather can be oppressive, so I’ll allow that, but really, the first 28 games of the season for France (and quite possibly you) have been a struggle. Especially coming off two years where it had appeared that France had settled as a good, but not great first baseman that held a wide range of production, garnering a nice .280/.350/.440 split (roughly) the past 300 games. So what’s up with the 245/339/363 in his last 30? Obviously, we shouldn’t judge the whole based on the last 10 percent, but that doesn’t help with the fact that we don’t know how long this lower level of production will continue. A slump is a slump until it isn’t, that’s science baby, but it is alarming that such a strong “batting-average” hitter and a general top-10 first baseman (okay, maybe top-15…ish?) is struggling like this right out of the gate.
And that leads to another question, is this slump really right out of the gate? It’s important to remember that France’s hitting struggles may have begun earlier, even dating back to last season. From an elbow injury on June 25th, 2022, to a wrist injury a month later led to a higher swing-and-miss rate, a reduction in power, and more ground balls. So while I can’t say if he’s still injured or still recovering, perhaps being under the weather is a good enough reason to cause his most recent struggles, hitting a measly 198/313/245 over his last 15 games.
Frankly, any change to this player’s “anything” may be enough to cause his plate issues. Remember, this is a player that doesn’t really draw all too many walks (5.7%) and doesn’t generate power like a traditional power hitter with an exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the bottom 30 percent of baseball. I just mentioned how some injuries sustained last season affected his swing enough to make a huge difference, and France doesn’t have his middle-infielder eligibility anymore to help absorb some of these issues.
Getting into the stats for this season is just as alarming as you might think. Exit Velocity has trended down the last three seasons (including maxEV) along with his HardHit%. His GB/FB and LD% have largely stayed the same, which to me is still a good sign amidst the turmoil. There are also some changes in his plate discipline numbers. He’s swinging less at pitches inside the streak zone and swinging less overall, perhaps a byproduct of the slump, because, on the flip side, his contact has remained in line with this career and his SwStr% has actually improved, encouraging to say the least.
All of that is to say that I don’t think he’s permanently broken as a hitter, it really does look like another slump. And this wouldn’t be the first time either, he had three months last year where he yo-yo’d up and down the Mendoza line… but I also can’t rule out that maybe there’s an underlying health issue. As mentioned, anything that seems to affect his mechanics reverberates through his stats. But the foundational parts of his hitter are pretty sound, I’d be especially worried that along with the power outage, his discipline or splits changed drastically, but they just keep chugging along, matching his career output.
Granted, if you’ve had him this long, surely he will improve if healthy and given at-bats. Seeing as how the Mariners don’t really have another option at the position, I think it’s safe to say that France will be given every at-bat to work himself out of it, and you’ll want to be there to experience it. He also is definitely someone to target if in need of what he does.
It may already be too late for France to get closer to his 2021 numbers when he hit .290, but 2022 is certainly in reach along with 15 homeruns. And not for nothing, with 17 runs and 15 RBIs, the periphial stats have been a bonus admist the ratio collapse. Sunk cost is a thing to be aware of, and as always, your mileage may vary, but I’m willing to hold or buy and see if he can work his way out of it.
Hmmm, work, something France doesn’t really do well, do they? You’re right, I did Google it… but now I need to take a nap. Vive la France, to both, I suppose.
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell.
