Confession: I never took trigonometry. Is it difficult? Is the reaction above the one you have when you do it correctly? Baseball doesn’t seem like the most difficult sport to analyze. There are general stats for everything, and scouts could always just look at player and know whether or not he’d project as a toolsy major leaguer. Well, that is until Moneyball, at least.
Remember that scene with the scouts and Brad Pitt where Jonah Hill finally spoke up? At that moment Bill James did his best Billy Madison above, and since then the perception is that Billy Beane is an accurate representation of that beautiful gif (ok, not really, but the ‘Moneyball’ idea was actually incredibly smart and innovative for the historically cemented game of baseball and it’s stats).
Fast forward nearly a decade and a half from the 2003 Oakland team and they’ve still never won a series (although, the Cubs and Red Sox have while implementing the same methodology but with massively larger budgets). But the process is the same. Cheap, young contracts attempting to over-perform their salaries. It doesn’t take trigonometry to see the reasoning in the approach. Just a few Andrew Triggs. Or is it Triggses? Triggsies?
Primarily a reliever through the minors, Triggs kept his ERA under 3.00 every stop through the minors. Last season he posted a 4.31 ERA in 56.1 IP once he reached the majors, but his FIP sat at an impressive 3.20. He’s featured an incredible K:BB % through his career, and backed it up with an 8.79 K/9 to a 2.08 BB/9. This year? 11.2 IP so far without surrendering an earned run, albeit with minimal K’s. Don’t worry, though; they’ll come. And this week? Here’s where the beautiful math comes in…he faces A.J. Griffin and Ariel Miranda. Haha, all the sabermetrics in the world aren’t needed for that easy observation: Triggs is the favorite to win both of his starts this week. Put both of them in the home confines where he dealt a 2.81 ERA last season, and he’s shaping up to be a great option for Week 3.
But he’s not the only one…here’s how the rest of the Two-Start Starters line up for the week!
Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors WILL represent 8 worst or 8 best opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days, but since we’re not yet 14 days in…you get all monochrome.
THE BEST
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer WAS | @ATL, @NYM | 2.13/1.43 | 12.08/2.84 |
| Yu Darvish TEX | @OAK, KC | 2.33/3.19 | 8.84/4.46 |
| Danny Salazar CLE | @MIN, @CHW | 4.63/2.42 | 15.43/4.63 |
THE REPLICAS
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman TOR | BOS, @LAA | 1.76/3.20 | 5.28/1.76 |
| John Lackey CHC | MIL, @CIN | 3.00/2.43 | 12.75/3.75 |
| Michael Fulmer DET | @TB, @MIN | 2.25/3.43 | 8.25/2.25 |
THE STANDARDS
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs OAK | TEX, SEA | 0.00/3.28 | 3.09/3.09 |
| Mike Leake STL | PIT, @MIL | 0.60/1.43 | 7.80/0.60 |
| Robbie Ray ARI | @LAD, LAD | 2.19/3.66 | 10.22/5.84 |
| Blake Snell TB | @BOS, HOU | 3.18/5.14 | 4.76/6.35 |
| Ivan Nova PIT | @STL, NYY | 2.25/2.35 | 3.75/0.00 |
| Amir Garrett CIN | BAL, CHC | 1.42/3.25 | 6.39/1.42 |
| Brandon McCarthy LAD | ARI, @ARI | 1.50/3.06 | 6.00/3.00 |
| Shelby Miller ARI | @SD, LAD | 5.06/3.31 | 10.13/4.22 |
THE KNOCKOFFS
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler NYM | PHI, WAS | 7.45/3.24 | 7.45/1.86 |
| Lance Lynn STL | PIT, @MIL | 5.23/6.61 | 6.97/4.35 |
| Matt Andriese TB | DET, HOU | 4.50/4.93 | 8.10/3.60 |
| Jimmy Nelson MIL | @CHC, STL | 1.38/2.63 | 9.00/1.38 |
| Chase Anderson MIL | @CHC, STL | 0.69/3.17 | 7.62/2.77 |
| Derek Holland CHW | @NYY, CLE | 1.50/2.93 | 6.75/3.75 |
| Phil Hughes MIN | CLE, DET | 3.86/4.56 | 6.17/2.31 |
| Jesse Hahn OAK | TEX, SEA | 3.75/2.02 | 7.50/2.25 |
| Mike Fiers HOU | LAA, @TB | 5.40/6.43 | 7.20/3.60 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ATL | WAS, @PHI | 6.35/5.56 | 7.94/4.76 |
THE 
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chavez LAA | @HOU, TOR | 5.40/4.63 | 8.10/2.70 |
| Ricky Nolasco LAA | @HOU, TOR | 5.40/5.69 | 7.56/1.62 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez BOS | @TOR, @BAL | 5.23/6.22 | 11.32/6.10 |
| Tom Koehler MIA | @SEA, @SD | 3.27/6.93 | 4.09/4.09 |
| Joe Musgrove HOU | LAA, @TB | 4.35/4.87 | 3.48/3.48 |
| Jason Hammel KC | SF, @TEX | 6.52/3.56 | 5.59/5.59 |
| Josh Tomlin CLE | @MIN, @CHW | 18.47/6.57 | 8.53/2.84 |
| Jaime Garcia ATL | SD, @PHI | 5.73/6.84 | 3.27/3.27 |
| Jordan Montgomery NYY | CHW, @PIT | 3.86/4.65 | 13.50/3.86 |
| Zach Lee SD | ARI, MIA | 0.00/4.06 | 5.06/6.76 |
| Clay Buchholz PHI | @NYM, ATL | 12.27/4.57 | 6.14/3.68 |
| Ariel Miranda SEA | MIA, @OAK | 5.06/6.59 | 7.59/4.22 |
| A.J. Griffin TEX | @OAK, KC | 6.75/6.68 | 7.71/2.89 |
| Kyle Gibson MIN | CLE, DET | 8.00/7.05 | 7.00/3.00 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez BAL | @CIN, BOS | 10.38/7.79 | 6.32/3.12 |
| Yovani Gallardo SEA | MIA, @OAK | 6.30/4.83 | 5.40/5.40 |
| Steven Wright BOS | TB, @BAL | 13.50/11.68 | 5.63/3.38 |
All pitchers are projected for two-starts as of Friday night.
Good luck in Week 3! Kkeep checking back for your weekly lineup needs. Oh, and don’t be afraid to ask your questions. On life. On pitchers. On ranks. On…well, just…
DROP THOSE COMMENTS!
Follow [email protected] on Twitter at @matthayes for far more than just fantasy advice.
My pitching is hurting. I can pick up a oneof the”standards” (Triggs or McCarthy) or recently dropped Shoemaker. Would you rather…?
@Oranje: Someone dropped “The Cobbler” as well in my league. I have my eye on him and gonna pick him up.
My starting pitching has been godawful so far this season… Current state is:
-Quintana (WTF), Maeda (WTF), Hamels, Roark, Gray (about to drop for a streamer tomorrow), and Pineda (dropped after first start, re-added after his incredible last start, probably gonnab e shit tomorrow night)
@William Hung: Id take Shoemaker over the other two. Don’t worry about the slow start. Get him.
What you just wrote is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever read. And no point in your rambling, incoherent post were you close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having read it.
@nick the dick: Aww, thanks Nick! Unlike JB when getting our hazing by the Razz30, I know a compliment when i see one
@[email protected]: Haha that’s why you’re the man, [email protected]…was hoping I could drop my favorite Billy Madison quote without it getting misconstrued as seriousness. I’m a joker, I’m a smoker, I’m a midnight toker!
@nick the dick: Playin’ my music in the sun…
Brewers red, Cubs black???? I would take the Cubs bats over the Brewers all day.
@Midget Mafia: Totally agree. That’s built off of the past 14 days wOBA. Brewers hitting better than the Cubbies past two weeks.
Severino? Not a two start pitcher this week?
@Todd Purser: Did I miss him? My bad. He’d be in the bottom pile for me tho.
Thanks for putting this all together. It looks like a lot of work.
Finnegan and Sanchez just went on the DL. Does that change your projections much?
@Roger Anderson: Thanks man! It is, haha. And no. I don’t look at the opposing pitchers much, and neither of them are top tier options anyways.
5×5 Cats league– Which 5 ya startin?
Duffy
Archer
McCullers
Lackey x2
Nova x2
Garrett x2?
Nelson x2
Severino
Snell x2
Velasquez
Walker
Its a Cats league so my instinct is to pound starts but Duffy and Archer and maybe McCullers feel like 1 start must starts. I can also start Duffy at RP over Bedrosian or Iglesias.
Thanks for any and all help
@Dirty Johnson: If youre maxing SP and you’re in Yahoo Nova has RP elig.
– If you arent chasing saves
Lackey(2x)
Nova (2x)
Archer
McCullers
Severino(HOT hand and has CHW)
[email protected](RP)
If you need Saves ditch Severino slot Duffy @ SP and Iglesias @ RP
@Dirty Johnson: Start Duffy over Bedrosian. Then go Snell, Garrett, Lackey, Nova, Archer.
Thank you for this [email protected]! Like to get all the FBB info in the one stop shop that is razzball.
SO i have an open spot with the DL-ment possible tommyjohn-ment of Britton(sore forearms bad for FBBallers good for Dr. Andrews) So 1 open spot to add a streamer…
Triggs – You really see an uptick in the K/9?(i realize it cant get much worse)
R.Ray – Redlight on both because LA sees him 2x? or because it takes 115 pitches to get 5ip?
(plus side LA cant hit lefties)
Tomlin – yes terrible but he’s got MIN/CHW(both playing over their heads imo) and Tomlin isnt this bad.
If youre adding 1 is triggs the safe play?
thoughts/thanks.
@Fausto: Glad you’re with us Fausto, and thanks for the comment!
Of the options ROS I’d take Ray. For this week: Triggs.
What’re your Triggsonometry thoughts now that he’s facing Darvish instead of Griffin?
@Buck Martinez’s Wig: Opposing pitcher is just an added bonus. Shouldn’t affect anything of how Triggs pitches. This is why I usually omit mentioning it in any of the posts.
But man, Yu better watch out for Darvish!