Welcome to Week 6 of Two Startapalooza! Happy Cinco de Mayo to you, as well. It’s a lesser occasion than the arrival of this post to be sure, but I’m a fan nevertheless. Oftentimes in the past I would participate in “Cinco de Mondo” at my local Taco Del Mar, where on Cinco de Mayo you pay something like $30 for a five pound burrito and if you eat it you get it free. Also you win a sweet pair of burrito zubaz! It is the highest form of glory I can imagine. Sadly, I couldn’t achieve ultimate glory in my pair of attempts. The second year I came close, but there was just too damn much tortilla to chew in 30 minutes. So many sads.
Last week was annoying as my poster boy Sean Newcomb was pushed back a day to accommodate Mike Soroka, thus eliminating his two-start week. The bright side? Not only do we get Soroka in the bigs, we get a double dipper THIS week from Newcomb instead! He even gets the Marlins, so that’s exciting. There are definitely less options overall this week than the past two. Tier 1 and 2 are all guys that are owned, Tier 3 and 4 are small, and Tier 5 you don’t want anything to do with anyway. So we’re a bit limited in actual streaming potential, but regardless of that, here we go!
Tier 1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Clayton Kershaw (L) | ARI | 11th | 26.6 | CIN | 12th | 24.4 |
Corey Kluber | @MIL | 20th | 23.4 | KC | 24th | 16.2 |
Luis Severino | BOS | 1st | 17.4 | OAK | 2nd | 24.3 |
Carlos Martinez | MIN | 15th | 21.6 | @SD | 27th | 27.4 |
Aaron Nola | SF | 25th | 24.1 | NYM | 13th | 22.0 |
Stephen Strasburg | @SD | 27th | 27.4 | @ARI | 17th | 24.1 |
Jacob DeGrom | @CIN | 26th | 20.4 | @PHI | 23rd | 26.3 |
- Luis Severino (NYY) – “Hey, Luis! Great job shutting out the defending World Series champion Astros! 10 K’s, not bad! What’s that, you want a real challenge? Great! I love a kid who wants to push himself. You can have the top two teams against righties in baseball this week, how’s that sound? Perfect. You’re doing great here. Keep it up and we’ll get you a nice corner office with a view in the home dugout.” Obviously you’re still starting him, but Luis Severino has as tough a road as you can imagine this week.
- Jacob DeGrom (NYM) – As of this very moment that my fingers strike (stroke?) the keys of my board, it’s not set in stone that DeGrom will make both starts this week. He left his last start early with a hyperextended elbow, and at first things looked grim. The Mets medical staff wanted to saw his arm off when he got back to the locker room, wringing their collective hands while spitting tobacco into their “We heart to fix you” spittoon. Eventually their excitement faded as they were told by what I can only imagine was an actual medical doctor that DeGrom would be fine. “Consarn it,” the Mets medical staff lamented, stomping a boot on the floor, “we’re never gonna get to use this here bone saw. Tarnation.” The matchups are juicy if he starts, but keep an eye on his status as we head into Week 6.
Tier 2 | ||||||
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Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Blake Snell (L) | ATL | 1st | 16.8 | @BAL | 14th | 24 |
Dallas Keuchel (L) | @OAK | 10th | 24 | TEX | 13th | 24.7 |
James Paxton (L) | @TOR | 8th | 20.4 | @DET | 9th | 19.1 |
Dylan Bundy | KC | 24th | 16.2 | TB | 18th | 22.5 |
Zack Godley | @LAD | 11th | 21.5 | WSH | 6th | 20.1 |
- James Paxton (SEA) – Nothing like seven shutout frames with 16 strikeouts to push some of those bad outings to the back of your mind. You could argue Paxton for Tier 1 based on the strikeouts, but he’s been walking too many batters to give me enough confidence for that. Whether it’s Tier 1 or 2, you’re starting him. He’s been giving up more hard contact than ever at 34%, but that still doesn’t justify a .349 BABIP. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all 3.12 or lower, and with a 35.7% K% he should still be solid against less than ideal matchups against the strikeout-adverse Jays and Tigers.
Tier 3 | ||||||
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Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Kyle Hendricks | MIA | 30th | 24.8 | CHW | 12th | 23.4 |
Michael Fulmer | @TEX | 22nd | 25.1 | SEA | 9th | 20.4 |
Luis Castillo | NYM | 13th | 22 | @LAD | 11th | 21.5 |
Jeff Samardzija | @PHI | 23rd | 26.3 | @PIT | 21st | 20.1 |
Tyson Ross | WSH | 6th | 20.1 | STL | 16th | 22.9 |
Sean Newcomb (L) | @TB | 3rd | 24 | @MIA | 17th | 20.9 |
Jon Gray | LAA | 7th | 19.5 | MIL | 20th | 23.4 |
- Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – Man, Hendricks has to be the least sexy pitcher in baseball. Dude shows about as much emotion as a tree. He throws 86 MPH. His changeup is just about the only other thing he tosses, 7 MPH slower. Nobody whiffs. But sexiness be damned, he’s effective. Nevermind that 5.34 FIP, focus on the 3.97 xFIP. He’s never been homer-prone, so that 23.5% HR/FB rate will fall. He continues to be a master of inducing soft contact, ranking 7th among qualified starters at 27%. He’s worth starting this week just for the Marlins matchup alone.
Tier 4 | ||||||
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Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Drew Pomeranz (L) | @NYY | 4th | 23.4 | @TOR | 8th | 20.4 |
Fernando Romero | @STL | 16th | 22.9 | @LAA | 7th | 19.5 |
Homer Bailey | NYM | 13th | 22 | @LAD | 11th | 21.5 |
Danny Duffy (L) | @BAL | 14th | 24.4 | @CLE | 15th | 18.7 |
Ivan Nova | @CHW | 12th | 23.4 | SF | 25th | 24.1 |
- Fernando Romero (MIN) – A newcomer! No, not a Newcomb-er, he’s in Tier 3. In the perpetual quest for more Fernando’s, the Twins have given Phil Hughes the heave-ho from the rotation and brought up the young Romero. I hope he turns into a dominant starter just so we can call him Alpha Romero. You know, like Alfa Romeo? It’s a car. Get it? Ugh. Nickname potential aside, Romero does have the pieces to be a very good starter in MLB. His fastball, slider, and change all flash plus potential but are inconsistent. He’s also just 6′ tall, and has had issues with walks. He also threw just 125 innings last year in his second season back from Tommy John, so you’re not looking at a workhorse season on the docket. I’d expect him to be pretty inconsistent, but his upside nets him a Tier 4 ranking.
Tier 5 | ||||||
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Player | Opp #1 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% | Opp #2 | Rank vs L/R | Opp K% |
Derek Holland (L) | @PHI | 18th | 23.3 | @PIT | 2nd | 18.6 |
Jarlin Garcia (L) | @CHC | 24th | 22.9 | ATL | 1st | 16.8 |
Jose Urena | @CHC | 8th | 21.6 | ATL | 4th | 20.4 |
Wade Miley (L) | CLE | 15th | 18.7 | @COL | 5th | 26.9 |
Zach Eflin | SF | 25th | 24.1 | NYM | 13th | 22 |
Clayton Richard (L) | WSH | 26th | 23.9 | STL | 23rd | 22.8 |
Matt Moore (L) | DET | 9th | 19.1 | @HOU | 16th | 24.8 |
Jeremy Hellickson | @SD | 27th | 27.4 | @ARI | 17th | 24.1 |
Jaime Garcia (L) | SEA | 7th | 18.4 | BOS | 29th | 23.8 |
Brett Anderson (L) | HOU | 16th | 24.8 | @NYY | 4th | 23.4 |
- Brett Anderson (OAK) – Well lookee here, Brett Anderson is back with the A’s! Isn’t that fun. He even had a good debut, tossing a QS against the Mariners with 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, and 5 K’s. Perhaps the most interesting element of that start, however, is the 44% slider usage. Mayhaps he has taken a page out of the Book O’ Sliders like Patrick Corbin and Jake Junis. He got 26% whiffs on it, which is promising. Unfortunately he gets the Astros and Yankees this week, draping a soggy wet blanket over my excitement for him. I’d still snag him and bench him in a deep league, but standard mixed leaguers can look elsewhere for now.
*Starters are projected for two starts as of Friday evening.
You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken