Technically this will be Week 4 if you count the first Thursday through Sunday games, but I refuse to do that! That’s only half a week, my friend. We don’t half-ass anything around here, especially weeks. We go hard. YOU go hard. That’s why you’re here. You’re looking to get the weekly streaming leg up on your competition so you can punch them in their proverbial genitals. Don’t actually punch your competition in the genitals though, that ain’t right. Unless they talk smack about yo’ momma, then it’s ok.
The streaming game is one not for the faint of heart since it can go awry even in the best of situations, but part of the long game is casting your lot with a sound process and putting yourself in the best position to succeed. That said, out of the weekly bucket of mediocrity are some surprisingly non barf-inducing possibilities. I consider the options in Tier 4, which ended up rather thick and chunky (not unlike my soup), to be largely streamable in deeper mixed leagues. Let’s have a look at some of the more interesting double dippers this week…
- Patrick Corbin (Tier 1) – This dude is gonna be an ace this year if he can stay on the mound. He was straight dealing against the Giants his last time out until the sixth inning rolled around and his command simply vanished. That happens to every pitcher from time to time, so assuming he corrects it for his next start he will give you some elite numbers this week. He’s throwing over 50% sliders (although some of those he throws differently, so they’re basically curveballs), and has generated the second highest swinging strike% among starters at 17.9%, behind only Chris Sale. He gets two gravy matchups against the Giants who rank 24th in MLB vs LHP with a .282 wOBA and the Padres who rank 13th at .289.
- Rick Porcello (Tier 2) – Porcello has dropped the use of his curveball this year in lieu of more sliders and changeups, and the effect thus far has been tastier than a street taco on a sidewalk. Never linger on the street, people. Safety first. He’s back to limiting hard contact again (21% so far), which was his key to success two years ago when he disgustingly beat out Justin Verlander for Cy Young. Unfortunately, he faces literally the top two hitting teams against right-handed pitching in the Angels and A’s. If you’re loaded in 10 or 12 team leagues you could get away from him this week, but otherwise you’ve gotta roll him out. If he stumbles in these two tough matchups, fret not. I would even try to trade for him if he does have a rough week.
- Tyler Skaggs (Tier 3) – Skaggs appears set to be the rare Angels pitcher to get two starts in a week. He’s also just 53% owned in RCL’s and deserves your attention. Through three starts he has a nice 1.69 ERA with a 17:6 K:BB ratio. So far so good with the walk rate, and a 69% first pitch strike rate is promising. He’s getting good whiffs (12.7%) and reaches out of the zone (33.3%). He gets two home matchups against teams who have struggled against lefties in Boston and San Francisco, which is good enough to elevate him to Tier 3 here.
- Trevor Williams (Tier 4) – Williams has pitched to a 1.56 ERA over his first three starts, but it’s all smoke and mirrors. A 4.8% swinging strike rate is just embarrassing. He has a 10:7 K:BB ratio in his 17.1 IP. Woof. The Rockies and Phillies have been really bad against right-handed pitching so far so maybe he gets away with a decent two-start week here, but you’re not looking at a long-term solution.
- Junior Guerra (Tier 4) – Guerra managed to hold the Cardinals to one run over 5.1 IP in his 2018 debut. His fastball showed a little more zip than it did in 2017 when he stunk up the joint like a moldy Whopper Jr, but there’s not a lot to see here. His strikeout upside is low and his control is mediocre, but he has some decent matchups this week that just barely elevated him to Tier 4. The Reds and Marlins are the 26th and 27th teams against righties thus far with the 5th and 9th worst strikeout rates, respectively.
Tier 1
Player | Opp #1 | Opp wOBA vs L/R | Opp #2 | Opp wOBA vs L/R |
---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Corbin | SF | 0.282 | SD | 0.329 |
Jacob DeGrom | WSH | 0.327 | @ATL | 0.347 |
Masahiro Tanaka | MIA | 0.276 | TOR | 0.313 |
Aaron Nola | @ATL | 0.347 | PIT | 0.350 |
Lance McCullers | @SEA | 0.318 | @CHW | 0.331 |
Tier 2
Player | Opp #1 | Opp wOBA vs L/R | Opp #2 | Opp wOBA vs L/R |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dallas Keuchel | @SEA | 0.355 | @CHW | 0.330 |
James Paxton | HOU | 0.312 | @TEX | 0.295 |
David Price | @LAA | 0.376 | @OAK | 0.289 |
Sonny Gray | MIA | 0.276 | TOR | 0.313 |
Rick Porcello | @LAA | 0.356 | @OAK | 0.354 |
Luis Castillo | @MIL | 0.308 | @STL | 0.338 |
Nick Pivetta | @ATL | 0.347 | PIT | 0.350 |
Tier 3
Player | Opp #1 | Opp wOBA vs L/R | Opp #2 | Opp wOBA vs L/R |
---|---|---|---|---|
Blake Snell | TEX | 0.294 | MIN | 0.354 |
Danny Duffy | @TOR | 0.349 | @DET | 0.267 |
Aaron Sanchez | @KC | 0.278 | @NYY | 0.327 |
Marco Estrada | @KC | 0.278 | @NYY | 0.327 |
Johnny Cueto | @ARI | 0.313 | @LAA | 0.356 |
Tyler Skaggs | BOS | 0.293 | SF | 0.282 |
Zack Wheeler | WSH | 0.327 | @ATL | 0.347 |
Jon Lester | STL | 0.273 | @COL | 0.348 |
Tier 4
Player | Opp #1 | Opp wOBA vs L/R | Opp #2 | Opp wOBA vs L/R |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yonny Chirinos | TEX | 0.295 | MIN | 0.325 |
Kevin Gausman | @DET | 0.281 | CLE | 0.269 |
Michael Wacha | @CHC | 0.319 | CIN | 0.276 |
Chris Stratton | @ARI | 0.313 | @LAA | 0.356 |
Brent Suter | CIN | 0.316 | MIA | 0.305 |
Trevor Williams | COL | 0.274 | @PHI | 0.283 |
Mike Foltynewicz | PHI | 0.283 | NYM | 0.350 |
Brandon McCarthy | PHI | 0.283 | NYM | 0.350 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | @SD | 0.329 | @WSH | 0.261 |
Andrew Cashner | @BOS | 0.35 | CLE | 0.269 |
Adam Wainwright | @CHC | 0.319 | CIN | 0.276 |
Kyle Gibson | CLE | 0.269 | @TB | 0.285 |
Martin Perez | @TB | 0.285 | SEA | 0.318 |
Ian Kennedy | @TOR | 0.313 | @DET | 0.281 |
Junior Guerra | CIN | 0.276 | MIA | 0.276 |
Jordan Zimmermann | BAL | 0.262 | KC | 0.278 |
Tier 5
Player | Opp #1 | Opp wOBA vs L/R | Opp #2 | Opp wOBA vs L/R |
---|---|---|---|---|
Daniel Mengden | CHW | 0.331 | BOS | 0.350 |
Stephen Brault | COL | 0.348 | @PHI | 0.392 |
Caleb Smith | @NYY | 0.353 | @MIL | 0.299 |
German Marquez | @PIT | 0.35 | CHC | 0.319 |
Carson Fulmer | @OAK | 0.354 | HOU | 0.312 |
*All pitchers are projected for two starts as of Saturday evening.
You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken.