Brace for impact folks, this week could get ugly. For many of you, it’s your championship week. There are some nice options to be had, but between plain old rotation shuffling and some extreme weather conditions thanks to Hurricane Florence, you’ll need to keep a constant eye on your probable pitchers. I’ll be as responsive as possible in the comments to aid you in your championship quest as best as I can!

 

Tiers 1 and 2 are unusually stacked this week, so if you invested in any of those starters you’re in good shape. Terry Francona was so kind as to skip Corey Kluber his last time out, so you get him twice this week instead. Hopefully. Tiers 3 and 4 are plentiful as well, but please…avoid Tier 5 this week. FYI, I updated the wOBA lefty/righty splits to reflect team totals since the All Star break to give a better idea of how teams have been performing more recently.

Tier 1
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Corey Kluber CHW 24th 25.3 BOS 8th 19.5
Aaron Nola NYM 11th 21.1 @ATL 13th 19.7
Blake Snell (L) @TEX 17th 21.9 @TOR 23rd 23.6
Patrick Corbin (L) CHC 11th 23.5 COL 2nd 20.8
  • Patrick Corbin (ARI) – If you can believe it, Corbin has actually been better over the second half than he was in the first. His 2.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 11.45 K/9, and 0.99 BB/9 since the break are as good as you’ll find in baseball. He doesn’t have the most ideal matchups with the Cubs and Rockies on the docket, but I couldn’t care less. You have to ask yourself: are you Corb-in…or Corb-out? I’m Corbin baby. Corbin.

Tier 2
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Mike Foltynewicz STL 17th 21.6 PHI 18th 23.5
Zack Wheeler @PHI 18th 23.5 @WSH 3rd 18.8
Miles Mikolas @ATL 13th 19.7 SF 30th 25.5
Stephen Strasburg @MIA 29th 23.4 NYM 11th 21.1
  • Miles Mikolas (STL) – Mikolas will go down as one of the biggest players who surprised me this year. I still recall watching him get absolutely tattooed in Spring Training and couldn’t have been less interested in acquiring his services on draft day. Fast forward to mid-September, and he’s got a 2.99 ERA over 180.2 innings. The funny thing is, I’ve heard nothing but owners complaining about Mikolas not having any trade value thanks to a low K-rate and lack of track record. I can’t say I blame them for their hesitance, but now it is time for the Mikolas owners to reap their rewards. The Atlanta matchup isn’t ideal, but the Giants are a complete train wreck right now, and there is no team I’d rather have a pitcher facing. You’d have to be totally stacked to not start Mikolas this week.

Tier 3
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
J.A. Happ BOS 8th 19.5 BAL 14th 22.6
Nick Pivetta NYM 11th 21.1 @ATL 13th 19.7
Kyle Hendricks @ARI 16th 22.9 @CHW 24th 25.3
Jon Gray @LAD 5th 24.3 @ARI 16th 22.9
Jhoulys Chacin CIN 25th 23.5 @PIT 20th 20.6
Alex Wood (L) COL 2nd 20.8 SD 16th 22.7
Carlos Rodon (L) @CLE 20th 19.6 CHC 11th 23.5
  • Carlos Rodon (CHW) – I really hesitated to put Rodon in Tier 3. Rodon has had a very successful second half, with a 2.81 ERA over 67.1 innings for the Pale Hose. However, his FIP is 4.51, and xFIP hates him even more at 5.27. He has a horrendous 6.7% K-BB%, and isn’t a maestro at limiting hard contact with 31% hard contact allowed. This looks like a house of cards. The only possible thing to point to if you’re trying to justify the success is his incredible slider results. The batting average against on his slider is 0.062!! It gets just 18% whiffs, which is just meh, but 52% grounders is decent. The matchups are bad, and despite his ranking in Tier 3 I’m looking for better options in this highly important week.

Tier 4
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Anibal Sanchez STL 17th 21.6 PHI 18th 23.5
Joe Musgrove KC 4th 21.5 MIL 7th 23
Tyler Glasnow @TEX 2nd 22.4 @TOR 6th 21.7
Wade LeBlanc @HOU 26th 19.5 @TEX 2nd 22.4
Brad Keller @PIT 20th 20.6 @DET 28th 24.5
Anthony DeSclafani @MIL 7th 23 @MIA 29th 23.4
Jake Odorizzi @DET 28th 24.5 @OAK 1st 20.7
Andrew Suarez (L) @SD 16th 22.7 @STL 1st 19.2
Jordan Zimmermann MIN 19th 22.6 KC 4th 21.5
Felix Pena @OAK 1st 20.7 @HOU 26th 19.5
Nathan Eovaldi @NYY 15th 20.4 @CLE 9th 15.7
  • Tyler Glasnow (TB) – Glasnow has got an obscene amount of pub since his trade to the Rays thanks to a few splashy starts. He has really improved his walk rate, from 5.46 BB/9 with the Pirates to 2.84 with Tampa. However, he has just a 4.74 ERA over 38 innings with the Rays. I’m not ready to trust him against two of the better offenses of the second half, however, in the Rangers and Jays. I’d rather take my chances with someone like Anibal Sanchez or pick on some bad offenses with Brad Keller.

Tier 5
Player Opp #1 Rank vs L/R Opp K% Opp #2 Rank vs L/R Opp K%
Framber Valdez (L) SEA 27th 18.2 LAA 26th 21.4
Ryan Borucki (L) @BAL 25th 24.6 TB 6th 23.2
Jason Vargas (L) @PHI 24th 25.3 @WSH 10th 22.9
Daniel Norris MIN 19th 22.6 KC 4th 21.5
Sam Gaviglio @BAL 14th 22.6 TB 12th 21.4
Bryan Mitchell SF 30th 25.5 @LAD 5th 24.3
Trevor Richards WSH 3rd 18.8 CIN 25th 23.5
Andrew Cashner TOR 6th 21.7 @NYY 15th 20.4
Adrian Sampson TB 12th 21.4 SEA 23rd 19.5
Dylan Covey @CLE 9th 15.7 CHC 22nd 22.3
Daniel Mengden LAA 10th 23.6 @SEA 23rd 19.5
  • Framber Valdez (HOU) – I guess this is the section in which I try to polish a turd to try and find someone with fantasy intrigue. It almost makes too much sense to do that with a man named Framber. Despite a 2.66 ERA with the Astros, his peripherals are…not good. He has just 18 strikeouts to 14 walks over 23.2 innings with a 4.89 FIP that is more than two full runs over that shiny little ERA. On the bright side, he has some decent matchups with slumping AL West opponents in the Mariners and Angels. Still, you’re probably better off passing on everyone in this Tier, per usual.

*All starters are probable for two starts as of Friday evening.

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken

   
  1. Bob Leiker says:
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    Is Ryu a two start pitcher this week? What tier would you have him in?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Bob Leiker: It didn’t look like it when I was doing the write up, but now they’re toying with Stripling and for at least the next 20 minutes Ryu lines up for two at home against Colorado and San Diego. That Padres start would put him probably on the lower fringe of Tier 3. That rotation changes daily though, so keep an eye on him heading into lineup lock on Monday (assuming you have a lineup lock).

  2. dubjay says:
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    Hey Dokken
    Looking ahead to next weeks H2H matchup. Which 2 do you like best?
    Pivetta vs NYM @ ATL
    Miley vs CIN @PIT
    Suarez @ SD @ STL
    Keller @ PIT @ DET
    Zimmerman vs MIN vs KC
    A.Sanchez @ BAL and maybe a 2nd vs TB
    T.Glasnow @ TEX @ TOR
    K.Gibson @ KC
    J.Ross @ MIA

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @dubjay: That’s a lot of fire to play with my friend, but choosing from those options I’d roll with Keller and Sanchez.

      • dubjay says:
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        @Dokken:
        Youve got Pivetta in tier 3 but youd still roll with the other 2?

        • dubjay says:
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          @dubjay:
          Actually looks like its Arrieta with a 2 start next week. You like him better than Keller? Looks like Sanchez will only get 1 start next week.

        • Dokken

          Dokken says:
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          @dubjay: I go back and forth on Pivetta. He keeps underwhelming but the K/BB is great and so are his peripherals. I was thinking more about Keller’s matchups. I’d go with Pivetta!! There, I’ve made up my mind. Now let me go sit in my corner and rock back and forth.

          • dubjay says:
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            @Dokken:
            Now that youve made up your mind. Pivetta is a 1 start option. He is starting today. Arrieta gets the 2 starts. Arrieta? or Keller?

            • Dokken

              Dokken says:
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              @dubjay: I just saw that. Thanks, Phillies. Go Arrieta.

  3. gc tacos says:
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    So nervous about the next two weeks. I feel like I need to keep adding pitchers for the championship push. How do you like this rotation?

    Severino, Snell, Ray, Gray, Freeland, Castillo, Pudge Jr, Bieber, Giolito, Holland.

    Think I should sit any of those? It’s a dynasty so I can’t drop players that have bad matchups.

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @gc tacos: Overall I’d say you’re in pretty good shape. I’d sit Bieber vs Boston for sure and I don’t trust Giolito at all so I’d leave him on my bench as well. I don’t have much faith in Ray’s overall production, but at least you know he’ll get you strikeouts so that depends on your need. Holland gets the Padres twice over the next two weeks, so that’s a nice bonus.

  4. surfer dude says:
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    Hi Dokken, need a RP for next week, it’s down to Framber Valdez or Felix Pena, could you please pick one and give a brief reason why him thanks!

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @surfer dude: You got it, surfer dude. I’m going with Pena here. Framber, as I wrote in the article, has hideous K/BB numbers and peripherals. Pena isn’t a perfect option himself, but he’s been making the most of a limited arsenal and is more reliable to me.

      • surfer dude says:
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        @Dokken: awesome – thanks!

  5. Bigly Leagues says:
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    Looks like Odorizzi is a two start as well. Where would you rank him?

    • Bigly Leagues says:
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      @Bigly Leagues:
      Oops, see him in tier 4 ;)

  6. Corey says:
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    Thanks for this! I’m headed into the finals tomorrow.

    I like the idea of picking up Keller, but do you have any idea why the Streamonator has him pegged at -$12.40 for his start against Pittsburgh? Especially considering the run he’s been on, and the fact that it’s the Pirates. Is it just because he’s on the Royals?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Corey: Could be. His odds at a win aren’t great, his peripherals suggest some regression, and even though he’s improved the K/BB over the second half, it still isn’t that good. He is just a Tier 4 guy, so I’m not expecting huge things from him necessarily.

  7. scott says:
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    Is Strasburg a certainty for Monday? ESPN has him starting Monday, but both MLB.com and CBS have Fedde going.

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @scott: I’m seeing it both ways too, but I’d lean towards what MLB.com has since they get their rotation reports direct from the team. Probably Fedde Monday and Stras Tuesday.

  8. Charles In Charge says:
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    What tier would you put Aaron Sanchez, Steven Matz, and Tyler Skaggs?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Charles In Charge: Matz would be in Tier 4. Sanchez and Skaggs would be Tier 5 guys that I would avoid.

Comments are closed.