Welcome back to another installment of the Two-Start Dive Bar!
Some weeks I sit down to write this column, and I have something specific in mind to say, like “Happy Mother’s Day”, or “F*ck John Fisher”, etc. Today I find myself kind of without a lot of wisdom to impart here, other than maybe to remind my loyal readers of a few things:
1. This isn’t an exact science. There’s a reason that, while yes, the pitchers below are essentially in the order of my confidence in starting them, I’ve grouped them loosely into three-to-six categories. In the table below, I’m saying the range of possible outcomes for both Spencer Strider and Alex Cobb are in the same ballpark… though the confidence in that range of outcomes is higher if we reduce the range down, from Strider to Corbin Burnes, or from Zack Wheeler to Cobb.
2. If you don’t like making lineup and trade decisions, you should really play Best Ball. I do, the overwhelming number of my fantasy teams every year in both baseball and football are Best Ball teams. But if you ask “analysts” or “experts” (or whatever) for their opinion on every trade offer you get, or who to start this week, are you managing your team, or are they?
3. I don’t think I’m better than you. I just have access to good tools and have put together using them in a way that has, more often than not, resulted in a better-than-a-coin-flip outcome, and I’m sharing some of that with you wonderful Razzballians. But seriously, I’m not better at fantasy baseball than you. Trust me.
I guess that’s that. Now for the pitchers. Why don’t you and I dive right in?
Pitchers’ projected starts for the next week are sourced from Rudy Gamble’s Streamonator as of the update at 10:05am Eastern.
The bold pitchers below are the most extreme version of each section. The best of the Top Shelf, the safest of the Well, the worst of the Bar Mat.
The Top Shelf
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider, ATL | LAD(TU) | PHI(SU) |
| Gerrit Cole, NYY | BAL(TU) | SD(SU) |
| Luis Castillo, SEA | OAK(MO) | PIT(SA) |
| Cristian Javier, HOU | @MIL(MO) | @OAK(SU) |
| Corbin Burnes, MIL | HOU(TU) | SF(SU) |
| Zack Wheeler, PHI | ARI(MO) | @ATL(SA) |
| Charlie Morton, ATL | LAD(MO) | PHI(SA) |
| Dylan Cease, CHW | @CLE(TU) | @DET(SU) |
| Jordan Montgomery, STL | @CIN(MO) | @CLE(SU) |
| Shohei Ohtani, LAA | MIA(SU) | Point of Reference |
| Alex Cobb, SF | @MIN (MO) | @MIL(SA) |
Notes
- It always feels funny to me to look at the top of this list. Every week, I’m like “Yes, you should start Spencer Strider / Gerrit Cole / Max Scherzer / Shohei Ohtani in weeks they’re getting two starts. You’re welcome.” … Like, no shit, Sherlock.
- Speaking of the great Shohei, he’s this week’s Point of Reference, worth in one start about what Jordan Montgomery is in two.
The Well
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober, MIN | SF(MO) | TOR(SU) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez, DET | @KC(TU) | CHW(SU) |
| Jose Berrios, TOR | @TB(TU) | @MIN (SU) |
| Chris Bassitt, TOR | @TB(MO) | @MIN (SA) |
| Brady Singer, KC | DET(MO) | WSH(SU) |
| Kodai Senga, NYM | @CHC(TU) | @COL(SU) |
| Sean Manaea, SF | @MIN (TU) | @MIL(SU) |
| Mike Clevinger, CHW | @CLE(MO) | @DET(SA) |
| Marco Gonzales, SEA | OAK(TU) | PIT(SU) |
| Tanner Houck, BOS | @LAA(MO) | @ARI(SU) |
| Drew Smyly, CHC | NYM(TU) | CIN(SU) |
| MacKenzie Gore, WSH | SD(TU) | @KC(SU) |
| Taj Bradley, TB | TOR(TU) | LAD(SU) |
| Kyle Bradish, BAL | @NYY(TU) | TEX(SU) |
Notes
- Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt are weekly candidates for the Top Shelf. They get bumped down a skosh here this week, with two road starts, and against the best offense in baseball (and the Twins, who are mediocre-to-good in most offensive categories). Still worth starting in a weekly-change league, though.
The Bar Mat
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen, DET | @KC(MO) | CHW(SA) |
| Colin Rea, MIL | HOU(MO) | SF(SA) |
| Luis L. Ortiz, PIT | TEX(MO) | @SEA(SU) |
| Edward Cabrera, MIA | @COL(MO) | @LAA(SA) |
| Dane Dunning, TEX | @PIT(MO) | @BAL(SU) |
| Graham Ashcraft, CIN | STL(TU) | @CHC(SU) |
| Eury Perez, MIA | @COL(TU) | @LAA(SU) |
| Gavin Stone, LAD | @ATL(MO) | @TB(SU) |
| Kyle Muller, OAK | @SEA(MO) | HOU(SA) |
| Luis Medina, OAK | @SEA(TU) | HOU(SU) |
| Xzavion Curry, CLE | CHW(MO) | STL(SU) |
| Tommy Henry, ARI | @PHI (MO) | BOS(SU) |
| Josh Fleming, TB | TOR(MO) | LAD(SA) |
| Ryan Weathers, SD | @WSH(TU) | @NYY(SU) |
| Brandon Williamson, CIN | STL(MO) | @CHC(SA) |
| Austin Gomber, COL | MIA(TU) | NYM(SU) |
| Chase Anderson, COL | MIA(MO) | NYM(SA) |
Notes
- What kind of a sick son-of-a-bitch starts Colorado pitchers with two home starts in one week? My god. Can you imagine?
