As I was preparing to write this week’s Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player breakdown, I was all set to talk about Christian Scott of the New York Mets. I like him, but I am not fully on board with him yet, at least when it comes to helping this year in addition to next year and beyond.
So I took a U-turn, headed to the Midwest, and stopped in Detroit. Why Detroit? Because that is the city in which Troy Melton is dealing for the Tigers. Melton had never been a household name when it comes to prospect lists or top young players. But there are not a lot of 25-year-old players who are pitching better than him right now in the majors.
So let’s take a look at Troy Melton, an Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player.
The Stats
| YEAR | LEVEL | G-GS | W-L | IP | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-22 | NCAA | 34-30 | 12-8 | 163.2 | 4.12 | 1.338 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 10.0 |
| 2022-26 | Minors | 70-67 | 12-13 | 284.2 | 3.54 | 1.219 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 10.6 |
| 2025 | Detroit | 16-4 | 3-2 | 11.2 | 2.76 | 1.007 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 7.1 |
| 2026 | Detroit | 9-9 | 5-1 | 55.0 | 1.80 | 0.873 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 8.2 |
A native of Newport Beach, CA, Troy Melton wasn’t drafted out of high school and thus headed to San Diego State, where he played for four years. His first two years, he pitched in only eight games as he appeared in only four games as a freshman and then four games his sophomore season before COVID came and shut it down. He was horrible in 2021 as he had a 6.14 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in 15 starts.
But in 2022 he turned things around, going 5-2 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.102 WHIP. In both 2021 and 2022, he averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings, but he also walked 3.65 hitters per nine innings. Overall, his college numbers were not great, but the Tigers were intrigued with his stuff and took a chance on him by drafting him in the fourth round.
Since getting into the Tigers’ system, Melton has seen his walk rate steadily go down, and in 70 career games and 67 starts, it sat at 2.4 BB/9 before joining the Tigers this year. And while the walk rate decreased, he continued to strike out hitters at a 10.6/9 rate.
The Tools
- Four Seam Fastball: 37% | 96.3 mph
Troy Melton has a good fastball as its velocity ranks in the 78th percentile. Of course, velocity doesn’t mean a pitch will be successful, but for Melton, the pitch has been very effective. Opposing hitters have only a .171 batting average against the pitch. However, when he misses his spot with the pitch, opposing hitters have taken advantage of that, as they have five homers against the fastball and a .408 SLG.
It is important for Melton not to miss with his fastball because it is a pretty straight pitch. Compared to other right-handed pitchers, he has two inches less tail and nearly an inch less rise, leaving the ball more in the zone for hitters to attack.
- Cutter: 20% | 92.2 mph
Melton’s cutter offsets his four-seamer well as he has he produces solid horizontal movement with the pitch moving away from right-handed hitters. He averages two inches more tail on the pitch compared to other righties, and the overall result is a pitch in which opposing hitters have a .083 average and .111 SLG with 11 strikeouts in 36 at-bats.
- Slider: 18% | 86.5 mph
This has been a really nice pitch for Melton. It is generating a 32.5% Whiff% and a .214 average and .327 SLG. That is because he gets great movement, as it generates 3.4 more inches of break and two inches of drop compared to other right-handed pitchers. And he throws this pitch equally against both righties and lefties, giving him a weapon against any hitter.
- Sinker: 5% | 79.5 mph
Unlike a lot of pitchers who actually attack the top of the zone with their sinker (when did the term two-seamer disappear, by the way?), Melton does a great job of keeping his sinker low in the zone and under the hands of opposing right-handed hitters. As far as batting average against, it is his “worst” pitch as hitters have a .231 average – the highest of any of his pitches. But they have only a .231 SLG.
- Split: 9% | 88.7 mph / Curve: 5% | 78.2 mph
With his split and curve, Melton throws six pitches overall, and these two pitches aren’t just show-me pitches as they total 14% of his overall pitches. The split, which he throws 9% of the time, has a .200/.300 slash line to go with a 28% Whiff%, while the curve has a .143/.286 slash line with a 39% Whiff%. For his fifth and sixth best pitches, those are two pretty solid offerings in his repertoire.
The Results
- The “Good”
Troy Melton has been used as both a starter and reliever as a member of the Tigers going back to last season, and he has excelled in both roles. But he was a starter throughout his college and minor league career, and he has been outstanding in that role with Detroit.
In 13 career starts, he is 7-2 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.885 WHIP with a 2.26 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 rate. Compare that to his stats as a reliever with the Tigers last year – 12 games, 25.0 IP with a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a 3.96 BB/9 rate and 6.1 K/9 rate. Not bad numbers at all, but he’s been better as a starter, and that is where he has the most value.
And when it comes to opposing hitters, he has been successful against both lefties and righties. Left-handed hitters have a .151/.254/.368 slash line while righties have a .193/.211/.261 slash line.
There is a lot to like about Melton’s nine starts this year. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of them, with his worst outing being four earned runs in five innings of work against Minnesota. And he has also gone at least six innings in five of those starts. In a day and age when managers are happy to get five innings from their starters, Melton looks like a workhorse compared to many other starters.
- The “Bad”
While the slash line against let-handed hitters is decent, Melton has yielded six home runs against lefties in 106 at-bats. Not a huge concern, but still a concern. The bigger “issue” is his lack of command against left-handed hitters. The homers are one thing, but he has also given up 13 walks in 106 at-bats compared to only two walks in 88 at-bats against righties.
During his time with the Tigers in 2025 and this year, his K/9 rate is 7.7 overall and sits at 8.2 this season. But that strikeout rate is for the whole season. As the months have ticked off, his strikeout rate has increased along the way. In his two May starts, he had a 2.8 K/9 rate. In June, that rate increased to 7.6 in four starts. In three July starts, his strikeout rate is 13.0, fanning 25 hitters in 17.1 innings of work.
Overall, however, there is not a lot of “bad” when it comes to Melton. He has been remarkably consistent in his starts, and his strikeout rate is actually increasing, though his walk rate has fluctuated between 1.8 in June to 3.1 this month. If the worst is a 3.1 walk rate compared to everything else he is doing, I will live with that.
- In the end…
…Melton has been outstanding this season and doesn’t show any obvious red flags. A few pitchers I have highlighted have had a few red flags, and those red flags have come back to haunt them recently. But Melton has been consistent since the start of this season, including his stint in the minors to begin the year as he was recovering from elbow inflammation that he experienced in March.
So if you are looking for something to maybe worry about, it is the fact that the Tigers may manage his innings the rest of the season if they remain out of the playoff race. No need to push a player who started the year with elbow inflammation if there is no need. But that is just this year. Troy Melton should be a key part of the rotation for years to come.
Thanks!
Thank you for reading, and come back again next week.
