Another week of pitching injuries with precious few callups, and the back end of this Top 100 is getting ugly. I ranked Carlos Martinez last week with the expectation that he would miss just a single start, but at this point he’s missing multiple turns so he’s out. Intriguing rookies Mike Soroka and Joey Lucchesi are DL’d, and Freddy Peralta really came down to earth in his second start. We’re creeping closer to June when we should expect to see a few more high profile callups…and Alex Reyes looms. His most recent start was 7.2 1-hit, shutout innings with three walks and 13 K’s. Seems ready to me! If you don’t have him stashed yet and he’s still available in your league, stop whatever you’re doing (reading, I suppose) and remedy the situation. If I were forced to rank Reyes before he makes a MLB start, I’d probably initially slot him in around SP30. Chris Archer is at SP29, and I don’t think he’s giving you anything Alex Reyes can’t.

The Risers

  • Kenta Maeda, LAD (+16) – Maeda is coming off a brilliant performance, tossing eight two-hit, shutout innings with no walks and 8 K’s. The catch? It came against the lowly Marlins. The biggest problem with Maeda to this point is simply that he had no guarantee of remaining in the Dodgers rotation. As long as Kershaw is on the DL he has nothing to worry about, and at this point it would make more sense to send Rich Hill to the bullpen if there was a rotation squeeze than Maeda. We’ll get to Hill in a bit. Maeda has a 3.89 ERA but a 2.83 FIP thanks to an elevated .342 BABIP and below average 68.7% strand rate. Thanks to the K:BB he is worth owning in all formats even if he continues to suffer bad batted ball fortune and put up an ERA around four. He lines up for two starts next week against the Rockies at home (not frightening) and to host the Padres as well.
  • Kyle Freeland, COL (+32) – It’s easy to ignore a Rockies starter, but this is the Land of the Free! And the home of the Kyle, baby. Freeland can no longer be ignored. Over his last five starts (two of which were at Coors) he has a 1.59 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a very impressive 23.6% hard contact rate. The only real change in his pitch mix over that span is an increase in his fourseam usage, which is pretty damn promising for a Rockies pitcher. Remember that Freddy Peralta start at Coors when he struck out 13? 89 fastballs. Breaking balls don’t work as well in the thin air, so having a strong fastball is what gets you by at elevation. He doesn’t have an overpowering arsenal so his ceiling isn’t great, but he’s someone you can at least feel pretty good about streaming for now.
  • Michael Wacha, STL (+23) – Alright, alright, you guys wore me down! I did Wacha a disservice by omitting him by error for the first two weeks I was putting this list together. I’m rectifying the situation fully, finally. Look, I’m still not convinced that Wacha is actually good, but he’s good enough to crack the top 65. He’s got the 10th highest hard contact allowed among qualified starters at 41%. His 11% K-BB% is just 72nd. His ERA is 3.08, but his SIERA is 4.42. 31.7% line drives allowed is…not promising. I feel like he’s going to implode now just as soon as I bump him up, but with all this in mind, he’s been getting it done.

The Fallers

  • Jose Quintana, CHC (-14) – I think I speak for all Quintana owners when I say UGHHHHHHH. Is pitching really that hard? Well yes, yes it is, but that’s not the point here. Q is looking like a shell of his former self this year, although as I’m writing this he’s putting together a nice start against the lowly Reds. He’s rocking a 5.23 ERA, and his peripherals aren’t much better. Were you just reading about Michael Wacha’s hard contact and K-BB%? Because Q is right behind him with a 40.3% hard% (11th in MLB) and 9% K-BB% (77th in MLB). His velocity is down at tick, and at 29 years old he probably isn’t getting it back. Not everyone can be Charlie Morton. With a quarter of the season in the books it’s time to fully reevaluate where we stand with a lot of these starters, and there just isn’t enough here to warrant a “must-hold” label for Q in shallow mixers.
  • Jeff Samardzija, SF (-17) – Shark started the season late and those who were waiting for him are wishing he had never showed up. Six starts in he’s posted a 6.30 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 23:18 K:BB ratio over 30 IP. That is simply horrendous. He’s lucky I even rank him at this point, but we know every starter has rough patches, yatta yatta yatta. He’s still yielding just 27% hard contact, which is promising, and honestly most of his plate discipline numbers don’t look all too dissimilar from prior seasons. However, he clearly needs to make an adjustment. His velocity is down two ticks, yet he’s actually thrown 10% more fastball this year than last year. It’s time to get to more sliders and splitters, methinks. Until he shows us something, he needs to stay on your bench.
  • Rich Hill, LAD (-19) – I said Shark was lucky I ranked him, and double goes for you Rich Hill! Has there ever been a starting pitcher than makes you want to go all Ken Giles on yourself than Rich Hill? He’s healthy, he’s hurt, he’s healthy but he sucks, he’s hurt, he’s healthy and he’s good – no wait, he sucks again. In the past he’s at least given you good numbers when he’s not suffering from the Superblister, but this year he has a 6.20 ERA and 4.74 BB/9. Thanks for nothing. If he had actually pitched enough innings to qualify, he would lead the league in hard contact allowed at 46.8%. He’s not just getting unlucky. He’s getting very few whiffs (7.1% SwStr%) and chases outside the zone (21.8% o-swing%). None of this is promising. Unless you’re in an NL-Only league, Hill is expendable.

The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

Rank Name Prev Rank
1 Max Scherzer 1
2 Chris Sale 2
3 Corey Kluber 3
4 Gerrit Cole 4
5 Luis Severino 5
6 Justin Verlander 6
7 Noah Syndergaard 7
8 James Paxton 8
9 Stephen Strasburg 9
10 Jacob DeGrom 10
11 Carlos Carrasco 11
12 Aaron Nola 12
13 Zack Greinke 14
14 Patrick Corbin 15
15 Blake Snell 16
16 Charlie Morton 17
17 Trevor Bauer 18
18 Lance McCullers 19
19 Alex Wood 20
20 Rick Porcello 21
21 Jose Berrios 29
22 Sean Manaea 22
23 Jon Gray 23
24 Shohei Ohtani 24
25 Dallas Keuchel 25
26 Nick Pivetta 33
27 Walker Buehler 27
28 Gio Gonzalez 28
29 Chris Archer 31
30 Luis Castillo 39
31 J.A. Happ 44
32 Sean Newcomb 40
33 Eduardo Rodriguez 34
34 Garrett Richards 41
35 Zack Godley 30
36 Yu Darvish 32
37 Kyle Hendricks 35
38 Jake Arrieta 36
39 Miles Mikolas 37
40 Jose Quintana 26
41 Jameson Taillon 47
42 Jack Flaherty 42
43 Tyson Ross 54
44 Kenta Maeda 60
45 Michael Fulmer 43
46 Fernando Romero 50
47 Andrew Heaney 63
48 Reynaldo Lopez 45
49 Masahiro Tanaka 46
50 Tyler Skaggs 56
51 Kevin Gausman 52
52 Tanner Roark 53
53 Mike Clevinger 64
54 Nick Kingham 51
55 Jon Lester 57
56 David Price 67
57 Mike Foltynewicz 65
58 Luke Weaver 58
59 Vince Velasquez 59
60 Kyle Gibson 55
61 Freddy Peralta N/A
62 Dylan Bundy 71
63 Kyle Freeland 95
64 Michael Wacha 87
65 Matt Boyd 75
66 Caleb Smith 76
67 Mike Minor 49
68 Cole Hamels 78
69 Julio Teheran 85
70 Jakob Junis 77
71 CC Sabathia 79
72 Aaron Sanchez 82
73 Danny Duffy 66
74 Drew Pomeranz 62
75 Jake Faria 68
76 Zach Wheeler 69
77 Marco Gonzales 70
78 Jeff Samardzija 61
79 Chase Anderson 72
80 Sonny Gray 73
81 Jake Odorizzi 86
82 Daniel Mengden 88
83 Junior Guerra 89
84 Zach Eflin 91
85 Nick Tropeano 81
86 Tyler Mahle 93
87 Marco Estrada 80
88 Trevor Williams 100
89 Chris Stratton 83
90 Dan Straily N/A
91 Ivan Nova 96
92 Tyler Anderson 90
93 Rich Hill 74
94 Ian Kennedy 98
95 Jose Urena 99
96 Trevor Cahill N/A
97 Jarlin Garcia N/A
98 Andrew Triggs 92
99 Eric Skoglund N/A
100 Doug Fister N/A

 

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken

 
  1. Jon says:
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    Carrasco at Hou TODAY?. Looking for a W and QS.

    Reply

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Jon: Carrasco is an all formats auto-start for me. If you drafted him, you took him high. He hasn’t done anything to betray my trust.

  2. Fogimon says:
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    Look at Trevor Williams climbing that board!

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Fogimon: Haha, what a stud! Man that K:BB is brutal, but he’s done a terrific job limiting hard contact. It’s pretty remarkable to have a .232 BABIP over 9 GS though. Count your blessings if you’ve been able to use his starts, and sell immediately if you can.

  3. Sven

    nb says:
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    12 team h2hpoints, here is my rotation:

    1. Aaron Nola
    2. Charlie Morton
    3. Luke Weaver
    4. Luis Castillo
    5. Jake Odorizzi
    6. Nick Pivetta
    7. Drew Pomeranz
    8. stream spot
    DL: Zach Davies

    Do you think any of these should be dropped for another stream spot, or are they worth holding onto? Recently picked up 6 & 7 off FA, Pivetta has 2 starts this coming week.

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @nb: Odorizzi, Pom Pom, and Davies are all expendable in a 12 teamer. I’d make use of Streamonator and pile up the innings if you can. Definitely hang on to Pivetta though, someone make a mistake dropping him.

  4. Hebrew Hammer says:
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    This is my second year fb. 16 team Dynasty/ keeper league (H2h). Also 10 minor league slots, 5 hitting 5 pitching.

    I finished first in points last year. This year my pitching is killing me.

    Arrieta, Lester, Duffy (not even serviceable), Folty, Chase Anderson, Ohtani, Freddy Peralta, Zach Eflin
    Taijuan Walker, Joey Lucchesi on DL

    RP: Devenski, Doolittle, Ottavino, Greene, Leone (DL)

    Hitting/ Bench : Trout, D. Santana, Aaron Hicks, Cespedes (DL), Jo MA, Encarnacion, Y. Alonzo, Salvador Perez, Simmons, Dozier, Semien, J.Harrison, Villanueva, Solarte, Ohtani

    Minors: Bichette, Tatis Jr, Akil Badoo, F. Whitley, Allard, Burdi, Dunning

    I took over a team last year and started over with Trout, Edwin and Dufffy’s contracts only. Traded Manaea for Cespedes.

    Issue being, all of the aces have been taken. Even level mid level guys aren’t there. I picked up Eflin, Peralta, Lucchesi on wire, but obviously are only streamers.

    Half my staff are AARP members that can’t be relied entire season (maybe Lester)

    Bad trade offers are getting on my nerves . I. E. Verlander for Trout, etc.. Tatis Jr isn’t one i want to deal either for an older Verlander (same person offering)

    I am currently in first place in my division, but my pitching is horrendous.

    Based on my roster, any trade advice to help for SP please??

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Hebrew Hammer: Keep on turning down those offers. Whitley, Allard, and Dunning are going to be up soon enough to help you out. I would be trying to trade all prospects besides Tatis, Bichette, Whitley, and Allard. With only 5 SP prospects able to be owned per team I’d look for more MiLB SP’s to stash. See what you can get for Edwin. Otherwise keep churning the wire! You’ll come into some bonus guys that way that overperform expectations.

      As a side note, Nick Pivetta still seems chronically underrated. Maybe kick the tires on him with his owner.

      • Hebrew Hammer says:
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        @Dokken:

        Thankyou. Pivetta is taken unfortunately.

        Only issue with week to week wire pick up is I have only $120 left for the season. The minimum bid on any player is $60…

        • Hebrew Hammer says:
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          @Hebrew Hammer:

          Meant to say, the owner of Pivetta asked for Whitley. I countered with Danny Duffy..never heard back from him!

          • Dokken

            Dokken says:
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            @Hebrew Hammer: The Duff Man doesn’t hold too much value these days so I’m not surprised. Don’t get rid of Whitley, whatever you do! Still think Allard will be up pretty soon to help you out. Otherwise just keep poking around with owners and see who’s available for the right price.

            • Hebrew Hammer says:
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              @Dokken:
              The Duffy counter offer was for sarcasm purposes only lol. He is a dumpster fire, i can not give him away literally

  5. Brett says:
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    Jon gray at 23? Please explain I’m about to cut him

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Brett: Stay the course my man. Ugly ERA but none of his ERA indicators have him above 3.26 and his K-BB% is 16th best in baseball, among the elite. He’s proven he can pitch at Coors as well.

  6. Joel says:
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    Would you comfortably drop Quintant for Reyes? Other potential drop options are Buehler or Pivetta (it would hurt to choose either of these guys).

    • Joel says:
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      @Joel: it’s a 5×5 8 team league

      • Joel says:
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        @Joel: **Quintana

        • Dokken

          Dokken says:
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          @Joel: Comfortably is a stretch perhaps, but I do think Reyes has a higher ceiling than Q at this point. Reyes has always struggled with control, but so has Q this year and Reyes will give you more K’s when he’s up.

  7. Charlie says:
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    I have to gloat here. I love your rankings because they match up with my starting rotation. H2H redraft

    Severino
    Syndergaard
    Paxton
    Pivetta
    Archer

    Reyes
    Weaver
    Cahill: have you seen his underlying stats? Impressive.

    Thanks for the article Dokken.

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Charlie: Thanks Charlie, and well done on that rotation, dang! Gonna have to give Cahill more love methinks. He’s taken advantage of good matchups but held his own against Bawston as well.

  8. Utah Green Sox says:
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    Carpenter is on my waivers.

    Is he worth an add over either of Tim Anderson or Cesar Hernandez?

    OBP League btw

    • Utah Green Sox says:
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      @Utah Green Sox: Whoops – this is in the wrong thred.

      Ahhh well, thoughts?

      • Dokken

        Dokken says:
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        @Utah Green Sox: Haha, no worries. I’ll happily answer all questions. Sadly I don’t think I would add Carp. I’ve dropped him myself in a 12 teamer. He seems broken and i wonder if the shoulder isn’t still ailing him. Contact rate is way down. OBP format helps his case, but Cesar and Anderson are giving you better production by far.

  9. I'm dying slowly here ugh !! says:
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    Drop Tallion, t ross, flaherty, berrios, arrieta in a 10 team points league h2h weekly al/nl ….we have a 4 man bench and a DL spot…. so 5 spots to use to rotate offense or pitching and I have E Andrus, C Mart, Y Molina and Kh Davis all on the DL so I have 1 F’ing spot other than my starters. So after kh davis going down yesterday, i’m short a OF to start so I have to drop a pitcher or take a 0 in my line up cuz making a trade has been a bitch ( 2 for 1 to free up a spot ) which one of those guys would you drop so I can pick up a OF to play…. if I can’t get a trade through by 5pm? thx for the help man !!!

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @I’m dying slowly here ugh !!: Wow, I’ve got most of those guys ranked right in a row. I’d have to say drop Ross, because I think Flaherty sticks around now. I’d try to shop Arrieta if you can though, his peripherals are scaring me.

      • I'm dying slowly here ugh !! says:
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        @Dokken: My other starters are Mccullers and Dallas K plus my 2 closers morrow and chapman. I just started shopping arrieta funny you said that. So i’m trying to package Arrieta and Elvis andrus for a SP or OF …. I have astrubal or manny machado to play SS then i’ll move Nick Cast to 3b from OF or U spot. Thx for the help !

  10. Christian Herman says:
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    Quintana Snell C Smith L Castillo. I need to start 2. 12 team standard. Being conscious with my era this week. C Smith being a double starter making this tough. His stat line wasnt indicative of what he did in the last start. Either way, I need 2! Do your magic

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Christian Herman: I actually don’t have Smith going twice, so I’d say Snell for sure and then probably Castillo, although Q vs the Giants would be a close second.

  11. Uncle Ernie says:
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    I’ve been offered DeGrom for my Abreu. My current staff consists of Scherzer,Thor,Severino,Grenke and Snell. Im thinking I don”t need him as much as I do Abreu. My 1st base guys are Votto,and Belt with guys near Belts numbers on the waiver wire. On the other hand adding DeGrom would basically free up me from needing to pick up anymore starters moving forward baring injury of course. What are your thoughts i’m tempted. Thanks

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Uncle Ernie: Man, that is a vicious pitching staff. It’s a good offer really, but it just doesn’t fit your team context so I’d keep Abreu. Good first basemen are surprisingly hard to find this year.

      • Uncle Ernie says:
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        Thank you much. @Dokken: thank you much

      • Uncle Ernie says:
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        @Dokken: would you do that same deal if you got Encarnacian back in return for Abreu? I can include a closer in the deal(I have an extra) thanks

        • Dokken

          Dokken says:
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          @Uncle Ernie: That would make more sense, yeah. Eddie’s numbers look bad overall but that’s just from another one of his typically slow April’s. You’re not losing much of anything swapping out Abreu for E5.

  12. Christian Herman says:
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    Charlie Morton & Nick Pivetta for C Mart. What’s the verdict?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Christian Herman: I’d say that’s an overpay for C-Mart. I’d just as soon have Morton as Martinez the rest of the way, and I expect top 30 SP numbers from Pivetta. That’s a lot to give for a guy on the DL.

  13. relax says:
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    Would you give up either of Hamels/Folty for Tanaka?

    12 team 5×5

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @relax: Pretty lateral moves there, but if you get Hamels you can at least name your team Hole Camels, which is fun.

Comments are closed.