For the first time in a long time, we’ve got more impact starters returning than vacating the list. Huzzah! I look for any reason to party, and that’s reason enough for me, baby. Break out the purple drank! Carlos Carrasco spent a little more time on the DL than we expected, but he’s back comfortably inside the top 20. Johnny Cueto and Garrett Richards both return to the top 35. Jeff Samardjiza is even back, unfortunately for his owners. Let’s hope his fingers work on his splitter more than they work on his flowing locks of hair. The list looks a bit weird this week because of the returners. Some of the guys that I tried to jump up the list really didn’t get too far, like if Mario was a real-life plumber trying to leap over a cactus. There aren’t a lot of newcomers of note, so let’s focus this week on risers, fallers, and the real losers who fell off the list.

The Risers

  • Dereck Rodriguez, SF (+34) – Rodriguez has impressed lately, with a 1.35 ERA/1.00 WHIP over his last three starts. I had to jettison him up into the mixed league streamer tier, but don’t expect him to climb much higher. While his control is solid and he has a knack for limiting the long ball, he doesn’t miss many bats (5.4 K/9 over his last three) and he’s not limiting hard contact (41% hard% over the same stretch). He’s got the Cubs at home next, which would be a matchup I’d probably avoid.
  • Jordan Zimmermann, DET (+29) – I wrote up Zimmy last week so I’ll keep this brief, but I couldn’t not talk about him after his gem against Texas. He went 8 IP with 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, and 11 K, and now has a 0.90 ERA/0.70 WHIP over his last three starts with an obscene 26.4% K-BB%. Over his last two starts in particular, he has thrown over 47% curveballs and sliders and getting a ton of whiffs on each. You know he’s not going to walk anyone, so if he keeps up this new heavy offspeed tilt and actually gets strikeouts as well, you’re looking at the potential for a big second half profit. I’d be taking a chance on this in most formats with a date with the Rays in the Trop on the docket next.

 

The Fallers

  • Nick Kingham, PIT (-18) – The King of Hamland was torched by the Dodgers his last time out, and overall has been more meh than I’d expected since his recall. His 37:10 K:BB over 38.1 innings is just fine, but he’s had gopheritis in a bad way with a 1.64 HR/9. Not even penicillin will help. Maybe it’s E.coli from all the ham? He’s actually been pretty adept at avoid homers historically, so perhaps this is an issue that will even out over the second half. The 38% hard contact rate doesn’t help any optimism however, and he’s hard to rely on when he might get jerked between Triple-A and the Pirates the rest of the way.
  • Matt Boyd, DET (-18) – I gave Boyd the ol’ kiss of death a few weeks ago when I metaphorically patted him on the back for his sustained success despite diminished velocity. Naturally, he’s got a 10.59 ERA over his last four starts. He’s still had a nice 10.9 K/9, but a 45% hard contact and 26% line drives has led to a deserved .392 BABIP. Expect him to continue to be useful only in deep formats. I rescind my back-pat, Matt.

 

The Real Losers Who Either I Wanted To Drop Off The List Or Actually Did Drop Off The List

  • Zack Godley, ARI (-17) – Godley’s spot on the list is secured only by his continued ability to net a strikeout per inning. His 4.67 BB/9 is third highest among qualified starters (trailing only Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, for those of you out there who were curious). His HR/FB% is high at 15.6%, but he has always been prone to the homer so I don’t care about your 4.12 output, Mr. xFIP. He’s lost two ticks from his fastball since just last year and is throwing 40% curveballs to compensate, but clearly that isn’t doing the trick. I’d expect him to be a bit better over the second half, but I don’t foresee him regaining his position as someone you need to hang on to in standard mixers.
  • Sonny Gray, NYY (–) – A 5.85 ERA over 17 starts is a good way to get you kicked off the list, Sonny. He hasn’t had his command all year, with a career-worst 4.04 BB/9. His tendency to leave pitches over the heart of the zone has bit him as well, with a career-worst 1.17 HR/9. The effectiveness of his changeup from a year ago has vanished, and he’s essentially dropped the pitch for a bad cutter that is the same velocity as his fastball. There’s just so much to fix here at this point that I don’t see him providing any real value any time soon. That’s enough to get him kicked off the list, even if he does have a bunch of great seasons under his belt.

 

The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

Rank Name Prev Rank
1 Max Scherzer 1
2 Chris Sale 2
3 Corey Kluber 3
4 Luis Severino 4
5 Clayton Kershaw 5
6 Justin Verlander 6
7 Jacob DeGrom 7
8 Gerrit Cole 8
9 Trevor Bauer 9
10 James Paxton 10
11 Aaron Nola 11
12 Blake Snell 12
13 Zack Greinke 13
14 Jose Berrios 14
15 Madison Bumgarner 15
16 Carlos Carrasco N/A
17 Charlie Morton 16
18 Patrick Corbin 17
19 Lance McCullers 18
20 Alex Wood 19
21 Carlos Martinez 20
22 Ross Stripling 21
23 J.A. Happ 22
24 Tyler Skaggs 23
25 Robbie Ray 24
26 Johnny Cueto N/A
27 Jack Flaherty 25
28 Miles Mikolas 26
29 Mike Clevinger 29
30 Eduardo Rodriguez 30
31 Rick Porcello 28
32 Mike Foltynewicz 32
33 Garrett Richards N/A
34 Sean Newcomb 27
35 David Price 31
36 Sean Manaea 35
37 Zach Eflin 44
38 Shane Bieber 39
39 Kenta Maeda 50
40 Dylan Bundy 34
41 Tyson Ross 33
42 Nick Pivetta 36
43 Walker Buehler 37
44 Carlos Rodon 38
45 Jon Lester 45
46 Freddy Peralta 54
47 Marco Gonzales 48
48 Kyle Freeland 53
49 CC Sabathia 52
50 Jose Quintana 41
51 Gio Gonzalez 40
52 Kyle Gibson 42
53 Michael Fulmer 43
54 Dallas Keuchel 46
55 Jake Arrieta 49
56 Junior Guerra 66
57 Steven Matz 56
58 Jameson Taillon 51
59 Joey Lucchesi 59
60 Mike Minor 73
61 Luis Castillo 62
62 Zack Wheeler 63
63 Jeff Samardjiza N/A
64 Wade LeBlanc 74
65 Joe Musgrove 58
66 Dereck Rodriguez 100
67 Kyle Hendricks 61
68 Kevin Gausman 67
69 Nathan Eovaldi 77
70 Jordan Zimmermann 99
71 Andrew Heaney 64
72 Cole Hamels 65
73 Nick Kingham 55
74 Mike Montgomery 68
75 Matt Boyd 57
76 Reynaldo Lopez 69
77 Sam Gaviglio 70
78 Rich Hill 72
79 Jose Urena N/A
80 Luke Weaver 83
81 Jhoulys Chacin 87
82 John Gant 82
83 Jaime Barria 84
84 Mike Fiers 89
85 Tanner Roark 75
86 Anibal Sanchez 85
87 Jake Odorizzi 79
88 Zack Godley 71
89 Domingo German 81
90 Felix Pena 98
91 Tyler Anderson 92
92 Jeremy Hellickson N/A
93 Ivan Nova 78
94 Chase Anderson 96
95 Tyler Mahle 95
96 Mike Leake 88
97 Lance Lynn 94
98 Anthony DeSclafani 90
99 Jakob Junis 80
100 Matt Harvey N/A

 

 

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken

   
  1. JC says:
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    Thank you! Very helpful in making pickups, etc.
    where does Trevor Cahill fit in on this list when he comes back ( they say this wk)?
    Trying to figure out which pitcher to drop for him in various leagues
    Thank you!

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @JC: Happy to help, man. Cahill has been pretty darn good when he’s healthy. I’ll probably slot him in around Minor at SP60.

  2. Skinny Mike says:
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    Just to be clear, is this list a ranking of the top 100 pitchers for week 15 specifically, or are you ranking the top 100 pitchers as of week 15 for the rest of the season? Thanks!

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Skinny Mike: This has nothing to do with weekly matchups, it’s a general value for rest of season.

  3. holthud321 says:
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    Have tanaka coming off DL tomorrow so I have to drop someone. 12 team, 5×5 H2H with QS instead of W.

    Should I drop luis castillo or jon gray? I know it may seem obvious being that one isnt in the majors, but with grays FIP, xFIP, BABIP, etc., was curious if I should hold out hope on him instead of castillo who appears to be a lost cause this year

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @holthud321: You’re right, it’s not an easy choice. I’d rather have Gray the rest of the way so I’d prefer to keep him if you don’t need the current production…not that Castillo has provided much production this year I suppose. Honestly in a 12 teamer you shouldn’t feel the need to hang on to any of those three.

  4. MALARKY says:
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    Who would you rather have ROS? Maeda or Bieber? Any discernable difference?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @MALARKY: They’re back to back for me so you could almost just flip a coin. Maeda is more likely to get injured though and I feel like Bieber’s rotation spot is fairly secure now, so if I had to choose I’d go with Bieber.

  5. Fogimon says:
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    How and why is Luis Castillo on this list at all?

    We need to talk to Grey

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Fogimon: Based purely on results he wouldn’t be on the list. But ROS there’s a chance he returns back-end value.

  6. thorbs says:
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    You have Hellickson back on the list – he’s been poop since coming off the DL. Was thinking about dropping him for a stream with another mediocre start in a deep 12-team dynasty. Reasonable?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @thorbs: Totally. I considered not ranking him but gave him the benefit of the doubt. That was probably a mistake.

  7. sam says:
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    should i trade kluber and Time anderson for Scooter Gennett, Bauer, and N Castellaneous? it is a 12 team 5 player keeper league – my four other keepers are severino, blackmon, machado, altuve with my fifth keeper than being rosario, buehler, or i suppose Bauer himself if i were to do the trade

    Please advise!
    Thank you!!

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @sam: That Trade depends a lot on need. If you can do without Tim “Time” Anderson’s stolen base prowess, you’d be getting a lot of extra production elsewhere. Check the standings and go whichever way benefits your squad the most.

  8. Marco Kirillov says:
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    Dokken, Im on a 16 team league. Is there anyone barely owned who would be a good aquisition? Anyone that just need a little bit to break into the 100? I have Mengden and Pomeranz on my DL, but this would be a miracle…

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Marco Kirillov: It’s hard to say without a list of names, I don’t know who’s owned in your league. Looking on Fantrax, guys like Gaviglio and Gant are under 15% owned and are still top 100 guys. If a SP isn’t on the list, he’s pretty close to a shot in the dark.

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