What a difference a week makes. A week ago there wasn’t a ton of movement, but this week I felt like an overhaul was in store. We’ll get to the risers and fallers in a little bit, but first there is a bit of scuttlebutt to address. No, not Scuzzlebutt the basket-weaving monster who lives in the mountains of South Park and has Patrick Duffy for a leg and a stick of celery for an arm. SCUTTLEbutt. The largest of which has to be the surprise demotion of Rockies Opening Day starter Jon Gray to Triple-A Albuquerque. Gray had a particularly heinous 5.77 ERA, so bad that Mariska Hargitay had begun poking around Coors Field to keep an eye on things. His FIP, however, is a sterling 3.07 (11th best among qualified starters), and his K-BB% is 21.8% (12th best). You can’t even point to Coors Field as causing his troubles, with a 5.89 road ERA. This looks like incredibly bad luck, but with this demotion clearly the team is focused on something mechanical. It’ll be pretty hard to hang on to him in standard mixers, although he may not be down for too long if they fix what needs a-fixin’ right quick. I’d try to hold him in a bench spot if you can in 15+ team leagues. Elsewhere, there aren’t too many notable promotions, but there are a few new names on the back end to peep.
The Newcomers
- Lance Lynn, MIN (SP94) – Lynn hasn’t been a part of the Top 100 for quite some time now (if he ever was, my memory doesn’t go that far back). His 8.37 April ERA had him well out of mind, and despite a 3.76 May ERA, his cumulative stats were just too stinky to consider him for the list. However, he has now posted a 2.83 ERA in June with a 9.73 ERA (albeit with a 4.40 BB/9), and has weaseled his way back onto the butt end of the action. His home/road splits are also stark, with a home mark of 2.70 ERA at home and 6.64 on the road. I’ve got to consider that anomalous. I’m not sure the walks ever get to a point where Lynn is good for your WHIP, but in deep leagues he’s at least in streaming consideration now.
- Jordan Zimmermann, DET (SP99) – Speaking of veterans I had completely left for dead, look who else crept onto the list! It’s the man who posted a 6.08 ERA over 29 starts in 2017! Yeeeeeeee-haw. Well, he just shut out the A’s over five innings, and there just might be something here. He has decided to feature his best pitch quite a bit more – the slider – and it’s working. The slider was his only pitch with a positive pVal last year, and in this last start he cranked it up to 47% usage!!! He’s used it over 30% in nearly every appearance this year, and if this last start is any indication of things to come, he could regain relevancy. It’s not a great pitch by the numbers, so we’re not looking at the next Patrick Corbin breakout or anything, but in deep leagues he might just be worth a look.
The Risers
- Shane Bieber, CLE (+13) – The Biebs has been terrific since his shaky debut against the Twins, allowing just two runs over 18.2 innings (3 starts) with a 21:3 K:BB ratio. Granted the matchups were pretty sweet (MIN again, DET, @STL), but good pitchers should dominate bad offenses. With his double-plus command he won’t be one to waste too many pitches and can pitch deep into games as well, although the deepest he’s gone to this point is seven innings. The 44% hard contact rate gives me pause, but he’s missing more bats than I expected and could very well be a top 40 starter the rest of the way…provided he sticks in the rotation when Carrasco returns.
- Jonathan Loaisiga, NYY (+44) – I rocketed Loaisiga (aka Jonny Lasagna) up the ranks this week after a strong start against the Phillies. Those Phils are free swingers, and Loaisiga took advantage of that, racking up eight K’s. He has yet to pitch beyond the sixth inning, which has been an issue due to too many walks. That was never an issue for him in the minors though, and I’d expect him to be much better in that regard moving forward. I’m not super optimistic he can pile up the innings since he has extreme injury concerns and tossed only 32.2 innings in 2017. That said, he looks like hot sexy fire while he’s on the mound and should be considered at least a streamer even in very shallow leagues.
The Fallers
- Nick Pivetta, PHI (-16) – Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaarf. Oh man, I’ve been pumping Pivetta pretty hard and then he goes out and gives up seven earnies while getting just five outs. Mondo suckage. He’s giving me a bit of a Vince Velasquez vibe with this blow up potential. He’s been nails most of the year, but this was his third disaster start of the year where he gave up 6+ runs. I’m sticking with him everywhere, but you can consider him a streamer in standard mixers as his 4.71 ERA won’t be too coveted by anyone. His SIERA is a luscious 3.33 though, and the K-BB% is at 21%, 15th best in baseball. The homers might be a problem, I will say that, but he’s a buy-low target for me.
- Gio Gonzalez, WSH (-15) – I will say that I never liked ranking Gio inside the top 40 (where he sits now) but the production was too good to argue with and I caved in. I wish now that I had stood my ground. Gio has a cool 8.44 ERA in June as that ridiculous strand rate luck he was having finally caught up to him. 79% in April and 90% in May was completely unsustainable, and June saw that number tumble to 62%. His WHIP is back up to a more Gio-like 1.42, and the more I write the more I think SP40 is still too high for him. He’s still very usable, don’t get me wrong, but don’t expect a return to his 2017 numbers.
The Top 100 Starting Pitchers
You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken
Jeremy Hellickson came off the DL for a start against the Phillies yesterday – he took his first loss of the year in a pretty mediocre start, but not exactly a disaster either for his first start off the DL in a road game (4 2/3 innings, 3 ER, 4K). Did he not get activated in time for consideration, or is he just not in your top 100 starters?
@LenFuego: I just missed that he finally got activated (believe it or not it’s hard to keep track of all these guys coming and going from the DL). I won’t judge him too harshly for a rough return after an extended absence. I reckon I’d slot him in around SP60.
@Dokken: Worth noting he never sees a lineup a third time by design, in case you’re in a QS league. I roster him in a 10×10 dynasty, more as almost a long reliever that vultures wins pretty regularly and has great K/BB.
In a league with QS instead of Wins, how would you rank these guys going fed… Maeda, Matz, Bieber, Rodon?
@MALARKY: Rodon, Bieber, Maeda, Matz
Would you hold Gray in a dynasty league? I’m shocked they demoted him. Wasn’t really depending on him, but loved the potential. Replacements are Chase Anderson, Matt Harvey, Mike Montgomery, and Dereck Rodriguez. Pretty deep league
@gc tacos: Nah you gotta hang on to Gray. My guess is he won’t be gone more than a couple weeks and none of those guys you listed offer anywhere near his caliber of upside.
so the tyler anderson > camargo deal fell through
reminder the league is weird 5×5 roto nl only with BB instead of R. i need hitting (BB,HR,RBI)
my seranthony D for his ketel marte and wilmer flores
you approve ??
@jiggy nits: Ah, NL Only puts this in much better context. I’d think there would be a save chaser out there willing to give you more than those fringy guys. I’d try shopping Seranthony around first for something better.
I just picked up Rich Hill…..you don’t rank him very highly. Would you go with the wait and see approach when he plays the Pirates? If he looks bad, would you drop him for Kingham, Eflin, D. German, Manaea, Buehler or Fulmer? Kind off looking for your thoughts on these guys ROS. Thank you.
@Andrew Mellars: You could tell me Hill will pitch like an ace the rest of the season, will miss the rest of the season, or will pitch to a 7.50 ERA the rest of the season, and I couldn’t argue with any outcome. I’d just roll him out while he’s going good and hope for the best, but he could be back on the DL at any moment. That’s why I can’t rank him very highly. If he stinks it up I’d add Manaea first out of that lot.
Great series, thank you for putting it together. How much more does Marcus Stroman have to show you before he makes it into the top 100?
@Raj: Thanks Raj! One more very good outing will get him on the list for sure. Consider him #101 with a bullet right now.
Zunino or Tom Murphy ROS?
Zunino feels safer despite an awful avg and obp
But Murphy feels like the ceiling is higher?
@Padre: It’s peculiar using the words “safe” and “Zunino” in the same sentence, but when you compare him to Tom “don’t call me Charlie” Murphy, he does feel safer. I guess Murphy’s ceiling could be higher considering Coors and all, but I’m not sure he ever makes enough contact to get there. Gotta go Z here.
@Dokken:
Haha I agree “safe” and a sub .200 avg don’t exactly make sense. Thanks for the advice!
@Padre: If Murphy was getting regular starts it would be him, but he is only getting maybe two starts a week … that is kind of the textbook definition of not safe.
@LenFuego: Even if he was getting regular playing time I’d take Zunino.
What’s your thoughts on Darvish’s form, assuming he returns this year? I’m in a H2H 12-team, 6×6 K/9 league, with only one DL spot and I’m contemplating dropping him.
Here’s my current staff:
Archer, (DL), Darvish (DL), Morton, J.A. Happ, Porcello, Flaherty, Streamer (we get 6 adds a week).
I’m bouncing between 1st and 3rd for most of the year. Thoughts on drop/hold?
@Dean Chennault: I’m not Dokken but a fellow Darvish owner. I don’t think he’ll be right this year, but K/9 gives him a bump value-wise. I’d wait for more news from the Texas docs he’s going to see and hold unless it’s bad news. Otherwise, I’d just weigh if you think you could get a reliable streamer or two weekly for the rest of the year.
@thorbs: YEah, my thought is to hold, but the K/9 is the only thing me holding right now. He’s been killing me in ratios since the start of the year.
Also, forgot to mention that it’s a redraft league.
@Dean Chennault: In a league of that depth and just one DL slot (ridiculous) he’s droppable. Still no ETA for his return and when he does come back there’s no guarantee he’ll be any good. As long as you NEED that spot and can help yourself in the standings with streaming or otherwise rostering another beneficial player, you can set him free.
@Dokken:
Yeah, I labored hard to get the commish to add an extra DL spot all preseason. He didn’t budge. Now that his team is in the bottom of the rankings with multiple injuries all year, he’s already rethinking that DL fiasco. Karma strikes!
As for my staff, I’ve traded for or added via free agency (outside drafting Darvish and Morton). Thanks for the help!
@Dean Chennault: Any league with fewer than 5 DL slots is ludicrous to me TBH. With the new 10-day DL there are more trips to the DL than ever.
Looking for some advice from anyone willing to give it! My league locks weekly and I’m struggling to determine which 5 SPs to roll with this week out of the list below:
Dallas Keuchel
Tanner Roark
Mike Folty
Andrew Heaney
Nick Kingham
Shane Bieber
Freddy Peralta
Marcus Stroman
Zack Wheeler
Brent Suter
Anybody got any thoughts or advice for a fellow fantasy baseballer in need!?
@Skinny: Kingham, Bieber, Heaney, Wheeler, Folty
Where will cueto be ranked when he comes back?
@holthud321: He was killing it before his injury, so if he looks right upon his return he could be around SP20-25.
Love your avatar. Makes me feel like an evil but friendly Glenn Close is giving me quality pitching advice. Thoughts on brad keller after going 8 last night ? Are we witnessing the second coming of Covey?
@Crabman: That’s exactly what I was going for when I set out on the search for an avatar. The only difference between Keller and Covey is that Covey at least teased me before he fell apart. Keller’s K’s are crazy low and I don’t see that rate improving much, but I do think he walk rate will rise. I’ll pass.