What a difference a week makes. A week ago there wasn’t a ton of movement, but this week I felt like an overhaul was in store. We’ll get to the risers and fallers in a little bit, but first there is a bit of scuttlebutt to address. No, not Scuzzlebutt the basket-weaving monster who lives in the mountains of South Park and has Patrick Duffy for a leg and a stick of celery for an arm. SCUTTLEbutt. The largest of which has to be the surprise demotion of Rockies Opening Day starter Jon Gray to Triple-A Albuquerque. Gray had a particularly heinous 5.77 ERA, so bad that Mariska Hargitay had begun poking around Coors Field to keep an eye on things. His FIP, however, is a sterling 3.07 (11th best among qualified starters), and his K-BB% is 21.8% (12th best). You can’t even point to Coors Field as causing his troubles, with a 5.89 road ERA. This looks like incredibly bad luck, but with this demotion clearly the team is focused on something mechanical. It’ll be pretty hard to hang on to him in standard mixers, although he may not be down for too long if they fix what needs a-fixin’ right quick. I’d try to hold him in a bench spot if you can in 15+ team leagues. Elsewhere, there aren’t too many notable promotions, but there are a few new names on the back end to peep.

 

The Newcomers

  • Lance Lynn, MIN (SP94) – Lynn hasn’t been a part of the Top 100 for quite some time now (if he ever was, my memory doesn’t go that far back). His 8.37 April ERA had him well out of mind, and despite a 3.76 May ERA, his cumulative stats were just too stinky to consider him for the list. However, he has now posted a 2.83 ERA in June with a 9.73 ERA (albeit with a 4.40 BB/9), and has weaseled his way back onto the butt end of the action. His home/road splits are also stark, with a home mark of 2.70 ERA at home and 6.64 on the road. I’ve got to consider that anomalous. I’m not sure the walks ever get to a point where Lynn is good for your WHIP, but in deep leagues he’s at least in streaming consideration now.
  • Jordan Zimmermann, DET (SP99) – Speaking of veterans I had completely left for dead, look who else crept onto the list! It’s the man who posted a 6.08 ERA over 29 starts in 2017! Yeeeeeeee-haw. Well, he just shut out the A’s over five innings, and there just might be something here. He has decided to feature his best pitch quite a bit more – the slider – and it’s working. The slider was his only pitch with a positive pVal last year, and in this last start he cranked it up to 47% usage!!! He’s used it over 30% in nearly every appearance this year, and if this last start is any indication of things to come, he could regain relevancy. It’s not a great pitch by the numbers, so we’re not looking at the next Patrick Corbin breakout or anything, but in deep leagues he might just be worth a look.

The Risers

  • Shane Bieber, CLE (+13) – The Biebs has been terrific since his shaky debut against the Twins, allowing just two runs over 18.2 innings (3 starts) with a 21:3 K:BB ratio. Granted the matchups were pretty sweet (MIN again, DET, @STL), but good pitchers should dominate bad offenses. With his double-plus command he won’t be one to waste too many pitches and can pitch deep into games as well, although the deepest he’s gone to this point is seven innings. The 44% hard contact rate gives me pause, but he’s missing more bats than I expected and could very well be a top 40 starter the rest of the way…provided he sticks in the rotation when Carrasco returns.
  • Jonathan Loaisiga, NYY (+44) – I rocketed Loaisiga (aka Jonny Lasagna) up the ranks this week after a strong start against the Phillies. Those Phils are free swingers, and Loaisiga took advantage of that, racking up eight K’s. He has yet to pitch beyond the sixth inning, which has been an issue due to too many walks. That was never an issue for him in the minors though, and I’d expect him to be much better in that regard moving forward. I’m not super optimistic he can pile up the innings since he has extreme injury concerns and tossed only 32.2 innings in 2017. That said, he looks like hot sexy fire while he’s on the mound and should be considered at least a streamer even in very shallow leagues.

The Fallers

  • Nick Pivetta, PHI (-16) – Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaarf. Oh man, I’ve been pumping Pivetta pretty hard and then he goes out and gives up seven earnies while getting just five outs. Mondo suckage. He’s giving me a bit of a Vince Velasquez vibe with this blow up potential. He’s been nails most of the year, but this was his third disaster start of the year where he gave up 6+ runs. I’m sticking with him everywhere, but you can consider him a streamer in standard mixers as his 4.71 ERA won’t be too coveted by anyone. His SIERA is a luscious 3.33 though, and the K-BB% is at 21%, 15th best in baseball. The homers might be a problem, I will say that, but he’s a buy-low target for me.
  • Gio Gonzalez, WSH (-15) – I will say that I never liked ranking Gio inside the top 40 (where he sits now) but the production was too good to argue with and I caved in. I wish now that I had stood my ground. Gio has a cool 8.44 ERA in June as that ridiculous strand rate luck he was having finally caught up to him. 79% in April and 90% in May was completely unsustainable, and June saw that number tumble to 62%. His WHIP is back up to a more Gio-like 1.42, and the more I write the more I think SP40 is still too high for him. He’s still very usable, don’t get me wrong, but don’t expect a return to his 2017 numbers.

The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

Rank Name Prev Rank
1 Max Scherzer 1
2 Chris Sale 2
3 Corey Kluber 3
4 Luis Severino 4
5 Clayton Kershaw 5
6 Justin Verlander 6
7 Jacob DeGrom 7
8 Gerrit Cole 8
9 Trevor Bauer 9
10 James Paxton 10
11 Aaron Nola 11
12 Blake Snell 12
13 Zack Greinke 13
14 Jose Berrios 14
15 Madison Bumgarner 15
16 Charlie Morton 16
17 Patrick Corbin 17
18 Lance McCullers 18
19 Alex Wood 19
20 Carlos Martinez 20
21 Ross Stripling 24
22 J.A. Happ 22
23 Tyler Skaggs 30
24 Robbie Ray N/A
25 Jack Flaherty 31
26 Miles Mikolas 28
27 Sean Newcomb 27
28 Rick Porcello 23
29 Mike Clevinger 34
30 Eduardo Rodriguez 26
31 David Price 32
32 Mike Foltynewicz 37
33 Tyson Ross 29
34 Dylan Bundy 35
35 Sean Manaea 36
36 Nick Pivetta 21
37 Walker Buehler N/A
38 Carlos Rodon 51
39 Shane Bieber 62
40 Gio Gonzalez 25
41 Jose Quintana 33
42 Kyle Gibson 39
43 Michael Fulmer 40
44 Zach Eflin 54
45 Jon Lester 53
46 Dallas Keuchel 42
47 Jonathan Loaisiga 91
48 Marco Gonzales 50
49 Jake Arrieta 47
50 Kenta Maeda 55
51 Jameson Taillon 49
52 CC Sabathia 57
53 Kyle Freeland 68
54 Freddy Peralta 87
55 Nick Kingham N/A
56 Steven Matz 72
57 Matt Boyd 52
58 Joe Musgrove 45
59 Joey Lucchesi 46
60 Vince Velasquez 56
61 Kyle Hendricks 43
62 Luis Castillo 48
63 Zack Wheeler 73
64 Andrew Heaney 60
65 Cole Hamels 61
66 Junior Guerra 70
67 Kevin Gausman 64
68 Mike Montgomery 71
69 Reynaldo Lopez 67
70 Sam Gaviglio 74
71 Zack Godley 63
72 Rich Hill 69
73 Mike Minor 98
74 Wade LeBlanc 76
75 Tanner Roark 44
76 Sonny Gray 66
77 Nathan Eovaldi 83
78 Ivan Nova 81
79 Jake Odorizzi 80
80 Jakob Junis 77
81 Domingo German 78
82 John Gant N/A
83 Luke Weaver 75
84 Jaime Barria 88
85 Anibal Sanchez 82
86 Dylan Covey 65
87 Jhoulys Chacin 85
88 Mike Leake 94
89 Mike Fiers 95
90 Anthony DeSclafani 97
91 Clayton Richard 96
92 Tyler Anderson 90
93 Brent Suter 100
94 Lance Lynn N/A
95 Tyler Mahle 93
96 Chase Anderson 99
97 Danny Duffy N/A
98 Felix Pena N/A
99 Jordan Zimmermann N/A
100 Dereck Rodriguez N/A

 

 

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken

  1. LenFuego says:
    (link)

    Jeremy Hellickson came off the DL for a start against the Phillies yesterday – he took his first loss of the year in a pretty mediocre start, but not exactly a disaster either for his first start off the DL in a road game (4 2/3 innings, 3 ER, 4K). Did he not get activated in time for consideration, or is he just not in your top 100 starters?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @LenFuego: I just missed that he finally got activated (believe it or not it’s hard to keep track of all these guys coming and going from the DL). I won’t judge him too harshly for a rough return after an extended absence. I reckon I’d slot him in around SP60.

      • thorbs says:
        (link)

        @Dokken: Worth noting he never sees a lineup a third time by design, in case you’re in a QS league. I roster him in a 10×10 dynasty, more as almost a long reliever that vultures wins pretty regularly and has great K/BB.

  2. MALARKY says:
    (link)

    In a league with QS instead of Wins, how would you rank these guys going fed… Maeda, Matz, Bieber, Rodon?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @MALARKY: Rodon, Bieber, Maeda, Matz

  3. gc tacos says:
    (link)

    Would you hold Gray in a dynasty league? I’m shocked they demoted him. Wasn’t really depending on him, but loved the potential. Replacements are Chase Anderson, Matt Harvey, Mike Montgomery, and Dereck Rodriguez. Pretty deep league

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @gc tacos: Nah you gotta hang on to Gray. My guess is he won’t be gone more than a couple weeks and none of those guys you listed offer anywhere near his caliber of upside.

  4. jiggy nits says:
    (link)

    so the tyler anderson > camargo deal fell through

    reminder the league is weird 5×5 roto nl only with BB instead of R. i need hitting (BB,HR,RBI)

    my seranthony D for his ketel marte and wilmer flores

    you approve ??

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @jiggy nits: Ah, NL Only puts this in much better context. I’d think there would be a save chaser out there willing to give you more than those fringy guys. I’d try shopping Seranthony around first for something better.

  5. Andrew Mellars says:
    (link)

    I just picked up Rich Hill…..you don’t rank him very highly. Would you go with the wait and see approach when he plays the Pirates? If he looks bad, would you drop him for Kingham, Eflin, D. German, Manaea, Buehler or Fulmer? Kind off looking for your thoughts on these guys ROS. Thank you.

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Andrew Mellars: You could tell me Hill will pitch like an ace the rest of the season, will miss the rest of the season, or will pitch to a 7.50 ERA the rest of the season, and I couldn’t argue with any outcome. I’d just roll him out while he’s going good and hope for the best, but he could be back on the DL at any moment. That’s why I can’t rank him very highly. If he stinks it up I’d add Manaea first out of that lot.

  6. Raj says:
    (link)

    Great series, thank you for putting it together. How much more does Marcus Stroman have to show you before he makes it into the top 100?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Raj: Thanks Raj! One more very good outing will get him on the list for sure. Consider him #101 with a bullet right now.

  7. Padre says:
    (link)

    Zunino or Tom Murphy ROS?
    Zunino feels safer despite an awful avg and obp
    But Murphy feels like the ceiling is higher?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Padre: It’s peculiar using the words “safe” and “Zunino” in the same sentence, but when you compare him to Tom “don’t call me Charlie” Murphy, he does feel safer. I guess Murphy’s ceiling could be higher considering Coors and all, but I’m not sure he ever makes enough contact to get there. Gotta go Z here.

      • Padre says:
        (link)

        @Dokken:
        Haha I agree “safe” and a sub .200 avg don’t exactly make sense. Thanks for the advice!

    • LenFuego says:
      (link)

      @Padre: If Murphy was getting regular starts it would be him, but he is only getting maybe two starts a week … that is kind of the textbook definition of not safe.

      • Dokken

        Dokken says:
        (link)

        @LenFuego: Even if he was getting regular playing time I’d take Zunino.

  8. Dean Chennault says:
    (link)

    What’s your thoughts on Darvish’s form, assuming he returns this year? I’m in a H2H 12-team, 6×6 K/9 league, with only one DL spot and I’m contemplating dropping him.

    Here’s my current staff:
    Archer, (DL), Darvish (DL), Morton, J.A. Happ, Porcello, Flaherty, Streamer (we get 6 adds a week).

    I’m bouncing between 1st and 3rd for most of the year. Thoughts on drop/hold?

    • thorbs says:
      (link)

      @Dean Chennault: I’m not Dokken but a fellow Darvish owner. I don’t think he’ll be right this year, but K/9 gives him a bump value-wise. I’d wait for more news from the Texas docs he’s going to see and hold unless it’s bad news. Otherwise, I’d just weigh if you think you could get a reliable streamer or two weekly for the rest of the year.

      • Dean Chennault says:
        (link)

        @thorbs: YEah, my thought is to hold, but the K/9 is the only thing me holding right now. He’s been killing me in ratios since the start of the year.

        Also, forgot to mention that it’s a redraft league.

        • Dokken

          Dokken says:
          (link)

          @Dean Chennault: In a league of that depth and just one DL slot (ridiculous) he’s droppable. Still no ETA for his return and when he does come back there’s no guarantee he’ll be any good. As long as you NEED that spot and can help yourself in the standings with streaming or otherwise rostering another beneficial player, you can set him free.

          • Dean Chennault says:
            (link)

            @Dokken:
            Yeah, I labored hard to get the commish to add an extra DL spot all preseason. He didn’t budge. Now that his team is in the bottom of the rankings with multiple injuries all year, he’s already rethinking that DL fiasco. Karma strikes!

            As for my staff, I’ve traded for or added via free agency (outside drafting Darvish and Morton). Thanks for the help!

            • Dokken

              Dokken says:
              (link)

              @Dean Chennault: Any league with fewer than 5 DL slots is ludicrous to me TBH. With the new 10-day DL there are more trips to the DL than ever.

  9. Skinny says:
    (link)

    Looking for some advice from anyone willing to give it! My league locks weekly and I’m struggling to determine which 5 SPs to roll with this week out of the list below:

    Dallas Keuchel
    Tanner Roark
    Mike Folty
    Andrew Heaney
    Nick Kingham
    Shane Bieber
    Freddy Peralta
    Marcus Stroman
    Zack Wheeler
    Brent Suter

    Anybody got any thoughts or advice for a fellow fantasy baseballer in need!?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Skinny: Kingham, Bieber, Heaney, Wheeler, Folty

  10. holthud321 says:
    (link)

    Where will cueto be ranked when he comes back?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @holthud321: He was killing it before his injury, so if he looks right upon his return he could be around SP20-25.

  11. Crabman says:
    (link)

    Love your avatar. Makes me feel like an evil but friendly Glenn Close is giving me quality pitching advice. Thoughts on brad keller after going 8 last night ? Are we witnessing the second coming of Covey?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
      (link)

      @Crabman: That’s exactly what I was going for when I set out on the search for an avatar. The only difference between Keller and Covey is that Covey at least teased me before he fell apart. Keller’s K’s are crazy low and I don’t see that rate improving much, but I do think he walk rate will rise. I’ll pass.

Comments are closed.