I love fast cars, fast turnaround at the buffet, and fast waiting lines, so when it comes to pitchers, it only makes sense that I’ve got the need….the need for speed. Guys…or girls…..who can throw mid-90s make me hyperventilate. Even better when they are young. Now, no need to call the authorities or anything, but I’ll admit that I’m an ageist. Once a player passes the 30-year threshold, I start giving the, “I’ll call you back when I get a chance.” So, then why do I sort of, kind of like Tommy Milone, a 33-year-old pitcher who averages 86 mph on his fastball?
Milone was drafted by the Washington Nationals in the 10th round of the 2008 MLB draft. He was traded to the Oakland Athletics in 2011, where he spent two years before getting traded to the Minnesota Twins. To the New York Mets in 2017, then back to the Nationals in 2018, the Seattle Mariners in 2019, and finally ending up with the Baltimore Orioles this season.
He’s always been a soft-tossing lefty, as the fastball velocity averaged 87.9 mph when he made his MLB debut in 2011. The K/9 rate never surpassed 8 while the walk rate was in the mid-2s range. The home run ball has always been a nemesis as well.
So far in 2020, Milone has started five games, pitched 24 innings and allowed 11 earned runs, 3 home runs, walked 3, and struck out 25 batters. That translates to a 9.38 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, and 1.13 HR/9. The K/BB is 8.33, which is tied for 5th in all of baseball! Let’s dig into the numbers.
The first thing that jumps out are the .368 BABIP and 61% LOB%. That means he’s been getting unlucky from both a hits and baserunner perspective, so there’s room for improvement. The 4.00 ERA is masking a 2.53 FIP and 3.88 xFIP.
The plate discipline numbers are encouraging as well. The chase rate is 38.3%, up 2% from last year, and ranks 12th in all of baseball. The contact rates are down 3-4% from last season and the swinging strike rate is up 2% TO 12.2%.
According to Baseball Savant, Milone ranks over the 70th percentile in hard hit rate, xwOBA, and xSLG. He’s 88th percentile in barrel percentage. Hmm, that’s odd because they have him down for not having allowed one barreled ball all year. Regardless, that’s good.
In his five starts this season, Milone has given up 3, 3, 0, 1, and 4 earned runs. He’s posted a quality start in two of those games.
It’s scary to throw Milone out there. I know, as I’m not only a member but the President as well. Especially since the margin for error is so slim. With that said, his control is impeccable and some good fortune could be in the works. Is he an auto start? No, but could be an excellent streamer or back-of-the-rotation piece. TREASURE
